God forbid someone brings realism into the discussion.
No, procuring Rafales isn’t more costly than procuring a fifth-generation plane. The base model itself is even cheaper than the F-35, a single-engine, low-cost, fifth-gen aircraft. Transforming into a next-generation air force doesn’t happen just by buying new planes. Just look at the major transformations Turkey underwent when shifting from the Century Series to F-4 Phantoms, from F-4 Phantoms to F-16s, and later when we started the transition to the F-35s. It’s nearly the same as building an entirely new air force.
Kaan is designed to be a highly capable, twin-engine aircraft with top-of-the-line subsystems. It’s not a plane that will be cheap. Affordable aircraft are designed with affordability in mind from the beginning of the project, like the F-16, the F-35 in its generation, or the Su-75.
If you asked any defense hobbyist from among F-16 users, they would probably say they’d like to have F-15s in their air forces. However, the actual decision-makers determining which planes to procure face hundreds of constraints that local defense enthusiasts don’t consider. Many of these F-16 operators “can afford to procure” F-15s on paper, but real-life empirical data suggests otherwise.
F-16 operators:
View attachment 71705
F-15 Operators:
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So, no, I don’t expect Kaan to fall within the procurement considerations of, South Asian and Southeast Asian countries that have opted for more affordable Russian Sukhois or F-16s over higher-end F-15s or Eurofighters. When these countries eventually upgrade to the next generation of aircraft, I expect them to procure KF-21s, F-35s, or Su-75s, rather than KAANs, GCAPs, or FCASs.