Live Conflict War in Afghanistan

Dalit

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Russia-China advance Asian roadmap for Afghanistan​

Shanghai Cooperation Organization's 'facilitate, not mediate' role could be the key to solving the Afghan imbroglio

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Dalit

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Afghanistan: America bombs, China builds

U.S. President Joe Biden recently defended the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, saying that "the United States did what we went to do," which he says was delivering justice to the perpetrators of 9/11 and to "degrade the terrorist threat" that Afghanistan poses. According to Biden, the U.S. achieved those objectives – and, moreover, the U.S. "did not go to Afghanistan to nation-build."

Biden's statement is merely a deflection from the fact that the U.S. actually had no clear plan in Afghanistan, though if anything suffered a humiliating defeat.
The lack of any clear plan is represented by the fact that objectives and priorities had constantly shifted through the war. For example, the fact that Osama bin Laden, the orchestrator of the 9/11 terrorist attack, was killed 10 years ago – and not even in Afghanistan, but in Pakistan. An account of the bin Laden operation by famous journalist Seymour Hersh actually shows unparalleled incompetence on the part of U.S. intelligence and special forces.

 

Dalit

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Let's hear it directly from the competitor.

Endgame Afghanistan decoded: Retreating US, China-Pakistan eyeing the space, what next​


 

Gary

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CHINA POWER | DIPLOMACY | SOUTH ASIA

China’s Afghanistan Gambit​

The pace of the Taliban’s military advancement on the eve of the U.S. pullout not only stokes worries of regional spillover, but also shines a spotlight on China.
By Barbara Kelemen
July 13, 2021
China’s Afghanistan Gambit

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As the United States approaches the final deadline to withdraw its last troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban are rapidly overrunning districts and gaining control of large swaths of the country. The group is doing so faster than anyone had imagined, to the point that the U.S. military has reportedly moved its forecasted timeline for a possible collapse of the civilian government to only six months after its pullout.

Indeed, with June being the deadliest month in Afghanistan in two decades, the former Afghan President Hamid Karzai now openly calls the Western deployment a “failed mission” underlying the rise in terrorist attacks both by the Taliban, as well as the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), which is also active in Afghanistan.

This worry is now particularly echoed when looking at potential scenarios of regional spillovers. Last week, at least 1,000 Afghan security service members fled into Tajikistan. More importantly, the Afghan government has now abandoned the Wakhan district in Badakhshan province, one of the most strategically important areas for China. Badakhshan province, and the Wakhan corridor, in particular, are now all but lost to the Taliban. Unless the group is able to keep a lid on rising tensions, China will be pushed to once again modify its long-standing principle of non-interference.

One of the main goals of the U.S. mission was to eradicate the threat of al-Qaida and make sure Afghanistan will cease to provide a safe haven for terrorist groups active in the region. This commitment is one of the main pillars of the U.S. deal with the Taliban, which pledged to keep the foreign fighters out of the country. However, the most recent U.N. report on Afghanistan published in June 2021 says that the Taliban and al-Qaida continue to enjoy close ties “based on ideological alignment” and forged via “common struggle and intermarriage.” In addition, the document clearly states that al-Qaida and like-minded militants celebrate developments in Afghanistan as a “victory for the Taliban and thus for global radicalism.” In this case, any hope that the Taliban are dealing in a good faith and will live up to their commitments appears largely misguided, if not outright misplaced.

It is now clear that there are two possible scenarios for the future of Afghanistan, none of which will lead to a more stable Afghanistan. In a slightly better outcome, the United States keeps its promise to protect its foreign mission in Kabul and provides a certain level of support for the Afghan military. In this case, Kabul will go on to live isolated from the rest of the country, much of which will probably succumb to the rule of the Taliban. For now, there have been various proposals of foreign deployment in Kabul, one including Turkey and Hungary in a joint mission at the Kabul airport. However, in the most recent sign of the Taliban’s real long-term strategy, Suhail Shaheen, a member of the Taliban negotiation team, cast doubts when speaking to BBC this week on whether the Taliban will be able to accept any foreign troop deployment.

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The Taliban’s evolving rhetoric together with their rapid military advancement takes us to the second question: How long can Kabul resist outside military pressure?

As the fighting hits up in the northern part of Afghanistan, the Taliban are now approaching Badakhshan, one of the most strategically important areas for China. Beijing has concerns about the potential of Islamist militancy spilling over to China or Uyghur militants using Afghanistan to regroup and train. Indeed, the country’s regional significance directly led to China’s rising military presence in Tajikistan only 10 miles from the Afghan border, while there have also been reports of Chinese activities in Afghanistan’s Wakhan corridor directly. Another side of the coin is China’s own economic projects, although the real economic value of those could be disputed.

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Similar to the U.S., China might have its own reservations as to whether the Taliban will be able to keep the security situation in check. Beijing has long developed ties with the Islamist group, going all the way to the 1990s, and China has always maintained a pragmatic approach to the group. But rising attacks on its interests in neighboring Pakistan, where Beijing finds itself fending off grievances from local militant groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army, demonstrate a worrying precedent for its growing exposure to local militancy. Even if the Taliban decide to lay down their weapons, the group does not exercise full control over other foreign elements active in Afghanistan. Indeed in June alone, ISKP carried out several attacks in the country, raising fears that the militants are regrouping.

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The group China is most concerned about, the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP), is according to the U.N. still active in Afghanistan. It participated in the siege of Kuran wa Munjan District in Badakhshan in July 2020, and most recently was also reportedly a part of recent clashes there in early July. More worryingly for Beijing, the U.N. also reported that the group has a larger presence in Syria, while facilitating the movement of fighters from Afghanistan to China to establish an Islamic state in Xinjiang. To what extent these claims reflect the current reality is hard to assess; however, they all demonstrate a reason for China to play a more constructive role in Afghanistan to ensure regional stability.

Becoming a more active player would require China to once again modify its long-standing policy of non-interference. However, China has done so in the past, so there is room for it to become more engaged, particularly if the security situation were to deteriorate further. This particularly possible as other countries might push Beijing to fill the vacuum – whether China likes it or not.

For instance, last year a report by the Brookings Institution cited NATO officials as saying that Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation, during negotiations with the Taliban briefed Beijing “far more frequently than NATO allies who complained of being left out and considered less important than China.” In addition, Beijing has already used its influence to push Islamabad to release the Taliban deputy leader Abdul Ghani Baradar from a prison in Pakistan.

All this suggests that China might be in too deep at this point to just sit tight. Beijing might be forced to use its regional influence to try to manage one of the most challenging conflicts in the past few decades, and so reaffirm its position as an aspiring regional hegemon.
 

Dalit

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Taliban Says It Sees China As A ‘Friend’ Of Afghanistan: Report​


Beijing: The Taliban has said it sees China as a “friend” of Afghanistan and assured Beijing that it would not host Uyghur Islamic militants from the volatile Xinjiang province, which is a major worry for the Chinese government, according to a media report.

The comments came as the Taliban made territorial gains in the war-torn country amid the withdrawal of the US forces. China has already evacuated 210 of its nationals from Afghanistan by a chartered flight this week.

“We have been to China many times and we have good relations with them,” Suhail told Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, recalling the few meetings hosted by China in the past for Taliban delegations.

“China is a friendly country and we welcome it for reconstruction and developing Afghanistan,” he said adding that “If (the Chinese) have investments, of course, we will ensure their safety,” Shaheen said.


The path is clear of obstacles. Regional cooperation and connectivity are the way forward.
 

Gary

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Iran cheers U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan — but fears what could follow​

Afghans carry the bodies of civilians killed in fighting between the Taliban and security forces in Badakhshan province, northern Afghanistan, on July 4. (Nazim Qasmy/AP)
By
Miriam Berger
July 10, 2021|Updated July 11, 2021 at 2:20 p.m. EDT

As Western forces exit Afghanistan, Iran is watching with alarm. The resolution of one long-standing aim, the withdrawal of U.S. troops, is unleashing a separate challenge: what to do about the Taliban, another longtime problem for Iran, swiftly regaining power and territory next door.
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The Afghan government said Friday that the Taliban had captured a key border crossing between Iran and Afghanistan.
Iran, ruled by Shiite clerics, and the Taliban, a radical Sunni movement, are at fundamental odds, and Iran has long bristled at the Taliban’s treatment of non-Sunni minorities.
Tehran fears both Taliban rule and Afghanistan returning to civil war, a destabilizing prospect likely to imperil the country’s ethnic Persian and Shiite communities, send more waves of Afghan refugees across the border and empower Sunni militancy in the region.
Seeking an upper hand, Iran has cultivated ties with some Taliban factions and softened its tone toward the extremist group, which it sees as all but certain to remain in power.
That gamble has elicited fierce debate in Iran, where the repressive Taliban is viewed unfavorably and skepticism of U.S. intentions runs high, even as the Biden administration makes slow headway in talks to return to the 2015 nuclear deal, from which then-President Donald Trump withdrew.

 

Dalit

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LOL

Retired US general proposes that US focus on Pakistan and Balochistan in order to station its troops there through force. Annex Balochistan from Pakistan and contain China. Indian media obviously entertaining the wild ideas.


It is hilarious how the Americans seek goodwill from Pakistan.
 
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Jackdaws

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LOL

Retired US general proposes that US focus on Pakistan and Balochistan in order to station its troops there through force. Annex Balochistan from Pakistan and contain China. Indian media obviously entertaining the wild ideas.


It is hilarious how the Americans seek goodwill from Pakistan.
Americans have always ordered the Pakistanis around. And Pakistan meekly complies. This won't be different.
 

Kaptaan

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Unity among regional nations
This is what that matters. Take a hike I say for rest of them. Most countries of the world have turned to join regional blocks. Turkey is part of NATO and OSCE with tentative links to EU. The Arabs have GCC and Arab League. Pakistan remains entirely detached from it's own region.

The Turkish geography gives them three choices broadly -

  • Europe/Atlantic
  • Russia/Eurasia
  • Middle East
And they have clearly opted for Europe/Atlantic. This policy has been successful in that it has offered Turkey security in NATO and economic opportunities in Europe. I don't think most Turks would contemplate any form of block with Middle East and Arabs.

In Pakistan's case the geography offers -

  • Central Asia/Iran
  • Middle East/Arabs
  • India/South Asia
Given our history with India which is even more conflicted then Turks have with Arabs I think that is a no, no from the word go. At least the Arabs don't have nukes pointed on Istanbul.

Middle East/Arabs has lot of symbolism but practically it is also no. The Arabs are clusterered around Arabian peninsula and arrogant with oil wealth.

The third option and we have geographic/historical linkages with is Central Asia. This is where Afghanistan comes into this and it stitches the region together. This is perfect from POV of Pakistan from geographic and economic sense. The Turks, Chinese, Russians can play a positive role in the formation of this block.
 

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Iran cheers U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan — but fears what could follow​

Afghans carry the bodies of civilians killed in fighting between the Taliban and security forces in Badakhshan province, northern Afghanistan, on July 4. (Nazim Qasmy/AP)
By
Miriam Berger
July 10, 2021|Updated July 11, 2021 at 2:20 p.m. EDT

As Western forces exit Afghanistan, Iran is watching with alarm. The resolution of one long-standing aim, the withdrawal of U.S. troops, is unleashing a separate challenge: what to do about the Taliban, another longtime problem for Iran, swiftly regaining power and territory next door.
Support our journalism. Subscribe today.
The Afghan government said Friday that the Taliban had captured a key border crossing between Iran and Afghanistan.
Iran, ruled by Shiite clerics, and the Taliban, a radical Sunni movement, are at fundamental odds, and Iran has long bristled at the Taliban’s treatment of non-Sunni minorities.
Tehran fears both Taliban rule and Afghanistan returning to civil war, a destabilizing prospect likely to imperil the country’s ethnic Persian and Shiite communities, send more waves of Afghan refugees across the border and empower Sunni militancy in the region.
Seeking an upper hand, Iran has cultivated ties with some Taliban factions and softened its tone toward the extremist group, which it sees as all but certain to remain in power.
That gamble has elicited fierce debate in Iran, where the repressive Taliban is viewed unfavorably and skepticism of U.S. intentions runs high, even as the Biden administration makes slow headway in talks to return to the 2015 nuclear deal, from which then-President Donald Trump withdrew.


Fun fact the Iranians supported both the US Invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan.
 

Gary

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Fun fact the Iranians supported both the US Invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Yes correct, Iran supported the Iraq invasion, yes they're favoring US disposal of Sunni led Baath govt so that they could install their Tehran loyal Shiite in Iraqi politics.

Iran also supported the Northern alliance against the Taliban. So it's no surprise they're generally ok with the US disposal of the Taliban.
 

Ryder

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Yes correct, Iran supported the Iraq invasion, yes they're favoring US disposal of Sunni led Baath govt so that they could install their Tehran loyal Shiite in Iraqi politics.

Iran also supported the Northern alliance against the Taliban. So it's no surprise they're generally ok with the US disposal of the Taliban.

But in Iran they have annual death to America day 🤣🤣🤣
 

Saithan

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Would Taliban agree to something a kind to civilian universal laws ruling some cities e.g. Kabul etc. Where Taliban has islamic ruling in rural places ?

What about Taliban venturing into these cities and causing trouble what if its a tribal leader ?
 

Gary

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