Live Conflict War in Afghanistan

mulj · Jul 29, 2021

LegioXLupus said:
Bro the west won't let Afghan government fall, a Taliban government in full control and on good terms with Pakistan and China is not to there benefit.

I think a status quo will be maintained similar to Somalia, where Shabab control a lot of the country but some form of central government will exist. Eventually countries like Pakistan will be hit the most with more radical forms of Taliban exporting terrorism there.

Turkey will do its part for its own interests and work with Afghan government and other regional players.

Had Taliban come close to taking Kabul or holding 90% of the country as they claim be sure the Afghan government would be in Washington right now and we would not be talking about troop deployment.

One big problem for operation like that, Kabul has really narrow control of outer borders and not to much friendly neibghours, so it is not realistic to fuel them beside sporadic airlifts.

Kaptaan · Jul 29, 2021

AlphaMike said:
I'm talking about independent power (Russia, China, Iran) somewhat able to exercise some sort of constructive cooperation, which I highly doubt.

Are you so averse to Pakistan that you don't include the most critical country in this list? As regards the success or otherwise may I suggest at worst it will end up as failure like the preceding alphabet combo and at best might end up with slightly better outcome then what is at present. You ignore one very crucial factor. Afghanistan is neighbour to these countries or from POV of Pakistan is our 'Mexico' or from Turkish POV our 'Syria' and thus these countries have very strong reason to find a solution because when the proverbial hits the fan - it's they who feel get hurt.

Not America, not India, not Canada etc

Kaptaan · Jul 29, 2021

mulj said:
One big problem for operation like that, Kabul has really narrow control of outer borders and not to much friendly neibghours, so it is not realistic to fuel them beside sporadic airlifts.

Any Turkish effort would rely on local third party - Pakistan, Uzbekistan etc. PM Imran Khan spent two days in Uzbekistan few weeks ago in a effort to get the Uzbek position on Afghanistan in line with Pakistan. From what I read President Shavkat and PM IK really found common ground and agreed that stable Afghanistan would be great for the region. In fact both sides have signed a agreement of understanding on a railway from Peshawar to Termez in Uzbekistan. This would change Central Asia-Af-Pakistan region. So I am placing lot of hope that neighbours who have much to benefit from this find a solution. Trade corridors and regional connectivity.

But I can guarantee you solution is not Amigos from across the globe or from Ganges either. Simple geography.

mulj · Jul 29, 2021

Kaptaan said:
Any Turkish effort would rely on local third party - Pakistan, Uzbekistan etc. PM Imran Khan spent two days in Uzbekistan few weeks ago in a effort to get the Uzbek position on Afghanistan in line with Pakistan. From what I read President Shavkat and PM IK really found common ground and agreed that stable Afghanistan would be great for the region. In fact both sides have signed a agreement of understanding on a railway from Peshawar to Termez in Uzbekistan. This would change Central Asia-Af-Pakistan region. So I am placing lot of hope that neighbours who have much to benefit from this find a solution. Trade corridors and regional connectivity.

View attachment 26783

But I can guarantee you solution is not Amigos from across the globe or from Ganges either. Simple geography.

Bro, things are settled in Afganistan, we are now witnessing only execution of defeat all others parties by talibans.
Media rumbling and wisfull analytics of bitter exterals are irrelevant. There could be really slight doubt about final outcome but with Talibans official visit to Peking even that one went into the thin air. Talibans are done deal, it is upto to the surrounding countries how would they acept that fact and take what they can from it for their own benefit.

Gary · Jul 29, 2021

Kaptaan said:
Are you so averse to Pakistan that you don't include the most critical country in this list? As regards the success or otherwise may I suggest at worst it will end up as failure like the preceding alphabet combo and at best might end up with slightly better outcome then what is at present. You ignore one very crucial factor. Afghanistan is neighbour to these countries or from POV of Pakistan is our 'Mexico' or from Turkish POV our 'Syria' and thus these countries have very strong reason to find a solution because when the proverbial hits the fan - it's they who feel get hurt.

Not America, not India, not Canada etc

Ok,. apology

now anyways, I'm aware of Pakistan ability to negotiate with larger power like China.

China to get 91pc Gwadar income, minister tells Senate

Gwadar Port Authority will get 9pc share in the income for the next 40 years.

www.dawn.com

now, don't you think Pakistan could possibly ended up a loser in this situation???
20 years of absorbing spillovers from Afghanistan and there's no guarantee your country having any spoils in the end at all??

What makes you think Pakistan could have it's say???

Kaptaan · Jul 29, 2021

Here is a fact for you all guys. The Taliban have already demonstrated that they have significant and I mean significant support from the Afghan peoples. No serious person buys into that childish claim that ISI or Pakistan are behind this. If this was indeed true I think I would own that charge with matter of pride. It would imply that ISI/Pakistan has outgunned, out perservered United States of America, NATO, India and presumably most of the Afghan population as well because allegedlly they all hate Taliban and Pakistan. I mean is anybody going to buy this bull even after kocking off entire bottle Russian industrial grade alcohol?

Thus any solution is going to have to accept the Taliban as a reality. Lest we forget they were the government. Bad or not is not the question here. If anybody says "female rights or Bamiyan Buddha's" may I suggest that Saudia Arabia be invaded under some 'Operation Female Rights' because there is precious little differance in female rights in KSA and Taliban other than one oppression is gilded in gold. For flying sakes only yesterday female got the right to drive in KSA. Indeed KSA is the inspiration of Taliban. Not many people know this but Saudi's have allergy toward historical heritage. In fact they have literally erased all historical traces in Mecca and Medina. This is well known. They have buldozed eveything and built ugly concrete blocks. They have this allergy against any physical object that gains human following. I could go on and on. The 9/11 event was a Saudi team effort.

Yet I don't see all these people who cry on about heritage, female rights suggesting invasion of KSA. How bestial KSA is was demonstrated recently. Ask the Turkish intelligence what they did to Kashoggi.

All the West is rather quite about KSA. Even the media is muted.

Kaptaan · Jul 29, 2021

mulj said:
Bro, things are settled in Afganistan, we are now witnessing only execution of defeat all others parties by talibans.
Media rumbling and wisfull analytics of bitter exterals are irrelevant. There could be really slight doubt about final outcome but with Talibans official visit to Peking even that one went into the thin air. Talibans are done deal, it is upto to the surrounding countries how would they acept that fact and take what they can from it for their own benefit.

I really really hope that all the neighbours begining with Pakistan work together. By the way Pakistan is the most 'connected' country with Afghanistan. We are almost hisrorical and geographical twins. Peshawar and Kabul are like Izmir and Istanbul.

Pakistan
Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
Turkmemistan
Iran

with

China
Russia
Turkey

providing input.

The solution is and never will be found across the globe. If there is issue in Begium could you expect China, Nigeria or Brazil to resolve it?

LegioXLupus · Jul 29, 2021

Kaptaan said:
As if that has not already happened. Here is few facts for you beyond Fox News template

Childish...

Merely stated violence will spill over, more terror groups and third party interests have entered the frame.

Unless you claim Taliban will solve all of Pakistan problems and wipe out those RAW agents among Pashtuns.

Kaptaan said:
They all recently went to Washington cry and wailing to daddy.

Couldn't care, everyone has a daddy in the region, some call on the US, some China.

Kaptaan said:
Goes against logic. So let us just recap here. The might of USA along with NATO which at the crest of the surge had 150,000 soldiers helping ANA failed to defeat the ANA. But now with all the firepower gone there is going to be stalemate. What were foreign forces doing in Pakistan? Having sex orgies? May I suggest that without all that firepower the balance would tilt in favour of Taliban as we can already happening. Watch this space next summer

To your logic, I understand why Pakistanis here keep portraying Taliban as juggernauts, claim a piece of the "victory". Whether Afghan government survives or not is not down to Pakistan or Taliban but the west.

mulj said:
One big problem for operation like that, Kabul has really narrow control of outer borders and not to much friendly neibghours, so it is not realistic to fuel them beside sporadic airlifts.

They will sit on the table before it comes to that.

mulj · Jul 29, 2021

Kaptaan said:
I really really hope that all the neighbours begining with Pakistan work together. By the way Pakistan is the most 'connected' country with Afghanistan. We are almost hisrorical and geographical twins. Peshawar and Kabul are like Izmir and Istanbul.

Pakistan

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmemistan

Iran

with

China

Russia

Turkey

providing input.

The solution is and never will be found across the globe. If there is issue in Begium could you expect China, Nigeria or Brazil to resolve it?

I know but most logical things sometimes occur like most absurd ones, that is paradox of living reality.
Hope that your views corresponing with political realities in mentioned states at least on minimum level, disregarding fact that particUlar sper power

will try everything to prevent possible developements in that direction.

Jackdaws · Jul 29, 2021

Kaptaan said:
Here is a fact for you all guys. The Taliban have already demonstrated that they have significant and I mean significant support from the Afghan peoples. No serious person buys into that childish claim that ISI or Pakistan are behind this. If this was indeed true I think I would own that charge with matter of pride. It would imply that ISI/Pakistan has outgunned, out perservered United States of America, NATO, India and presumably most of the Afghan population as well because allegedlly they all hate Taliban and Pakistan. I mean is anybody going to buy this bull even after kocking off entire bottle Russian industrial grade alcohol?

Thus any solution is going to have to accept the Taliban as a reality. Lest we forget they were the government. Bad or not is not the question here. If anybody says "female rights or Bamiyan Buddha's" may I suggest that Saudia Arabia be invaded under some 'Operation Female Rights' because there is precious little differance in female rights in KSA and Taliban other than one oppression is gilded in gold. For flying sakes only yesterday female got the right to drive in KSA. Indeed KSA is the inspiration of Taliban. Not many people know this but Saudi's have allergy toward historical heritage. In fact they have literally erased all historical traces in Mecca and Medina. This is well known. They have buldozed eveything and built ugly concrete blocks. They have this allergy against any physical object that gains human following. I could go on and on. The 9/11 event was a Saudi team effort.

Yet I don't see all these people who cry on about heritage, female rights suggesting invasion of KSA. How bestial KSA is was demonstrated recently. Ask the Turkish intelligence what they did to Kashoggi.

All the West is rather quite about KSA. Even the media is muted.

Whataboutism -

a conversational tactic in which a person responds to an argument or attack by changing the subject to focus on someone else’s misconduct, implying that all criticism is invalid because no one is completely blameless

Gary · Jul 29, 2021

Kaptaan said:
I was, I thought engaged in a discussion and not point scoring using soundbytes? Because this is what you have done here. Infantile!

You Indians at one level accuse Pakistan of playing duplicity - that is refusing to accede to US will with regards to Afghanistan despite billion of dollars, F-16s, etc etc and on the other just 'Yes sir'.

watch your word old man, that is a legit question !!!

How are you going to make some sort of power sharing agreement that favors Pakistan standing at all??? I'd like to remind you this is Afghanistan, a foreign country which at best your government has not yet any sort of influence, and once Taliban (supposedly friendly to you) are in power, we're seeing an influx of powers fighting for resources and influence. You cannot even make a favorable deal at home how are you going to compete?????

-China, Russia is two top most player imo, they've got the muscle and the money (although disparities are wide).
-Iran has a history of building militias out of religious zealots.

so my question is how is Pakistan going to at least compete with these players like some of your countrymen proposed ???

where I quote he said

Once Afghan minerals start making their way to China prosperity will flow like a river throughout the region.

If ethnicity is your only card then I'd supposed you're in for a rough surprise.

Kaptaan said:
Gwadar was just stretch of sand and few poverty stricken fishermen - there 100s of miles of such coast in Pakistan. Nobody would even invest a dime in this place until Chinese have come along into what is Wild West of Pakistan and poured billions in turning it into a emerging city.

View attachment 26784

the only thing that is changing is the ports and roads, locals kept being fishermen and poor. This while China basically got another geopolitical advantage of shares of income and alternatives to the Malacca dilema.

anyway, again my question is not about Gwadar itself, but on how your govt ability to do deals which resulted in win-win, not China wins twice.

Because if this Gwadar like attitude your govt are going to take in the scramble for Afghanistan (again which your countrymen proposed), then I'm not going to be surprised if your country ended up losing or ended up scavenging whatever left of Afghanistan that the other powers left.

Titanium100 · Jul 29, 2021

mulj said:
Bro, things are settled in Afganistan, we are now witnessing only execution of defeat all others parties by talibans.
Media rumbling and wisfull analytics of bitter exterals are irrelevant. There could be really slight doubt about final outcome but with Talibans official visit to Peking even that one went into the thin air. Talibans are done deal, it is upto to the surrounding countries how would they acept that fact and take what they can from it for their own benefit.

This..

We are hearing the cries of a dying whale and everyone knows it's time has come and it will die due to the amount of injuries it sustained that whale is the AFG gov't all the regional powers have seen the music and know where this is going and that there is one way forward and they have aligned themselves to that reality by developing ties with the ultimate winner and the only entity the afghan people back

Titanium100 · Jul 29, 2021

AlphaMike said:
so my question is how is Pakistan going to at least compete with these players like some of your countrymen proposed ???

Power this or power that nobody can influence or have more say in Afghanistan than Pakistan this is a ground reality. It can end all of this uncertainity within weeks if it wants by rolling in and not a single power will be able to stand to them if Pakistan decides that outcome not one single entity will counter them or go against them for that attempt everyone will cut his losses and look elsewhere this is 101 geo-politics because Afghanistan is not important enough for all this entities for colliding with Pakistan hence everyone will just initially back down and fade into the shadows