Nobody will sanction Türkiye for having nukes.
In a crisis, all the major players would likely impose sanctions – the US, Europe, Russia and China alike.
And yet, simply by virtue of its demographics, geographical location and size, Turkey has the potential to establish itself as a minor superpower. It will not become a global superpower – but that is not its real advantage.
Its real leverage lies elsewhere: network power.
The ability to speak to virtually all sides at the same time, to trade with them, and not to lose credibility immediately in the process.
Turkey is effectively the only NATO member state with which both Russia and China would communicate openly in a serious crisis – precisely because it is not a classic bloc state, but a pivotal state.
And it is precisely such actors that are needed:
Sometimes it is not the projection of power that decides, but the role as a broker or mediator between the blocs.
That is why Turkey is strategically pursuing several options simultaneously:
– Rapprochement with BRICS, but more as a privileged observer
– In parallel, an interest in the EU, though primarily via a modernised customs union rather than full membership
The end result is a deliberately chosen state of affairs:
Not belonging fully to any one side.
This is both a strength and a weakness –
a balancing act between maximum flexibility and permanent uncertainty.
That is why we are not particularly popular within Europe, Russia and the US/Israel – because, strategically speaking, we hold too many keys.
That’s the dilemma… see the F-110 engine blockage from US Parlament (building the 40-60 TAI KAAN would be a Power Shift in South East Europe and Middle East by 2032).
If we were geographically situated between Italy and Spain, we’d get everything we wanted; the only question then would be money.
