TR Air Defence Programs

[IC3M@N FX]

Nobody will sanction Türkiye for having nukes.

In a crisis, all the major players would likely impose sanctions – the US, Europe, Russia and China alike.
And yet, simply by virtue of its demographics, geographical location and size, Turkey has the potential to establish itself as a minor superpower. It will not become a global superpower – but that is not its real advantage.
Its real leverage lies elsewhere: network power.
The ability to speak to virtually all sides at the same time, to trade with them, and not to lose credibility immediately in the process.
Turkey is effectively the only NATO member state with which both Russia and China would communicate openly in a serious crisis – precisely because it is not a classic bloc state, but a pivotal state.
And it is precisely such actors that are needed:
Sometimes it is not the projection of power that decides, but the role as a broker or mediator between the blocs.
That is why Turkey is strategically pursuing several options simultaneously:
– Rapprochement with BRICS, but more as a privileged observer
– In parallel, an interest in the EU, though primarily via a modernised customs union rather than full membership
The end result is a deliberately chosen state of affairs:
Not belonging fully to any one side.
This is both a strength and a weakness –
a balancing act between maximum flexibility and permanent uncertainty.

That is why we are not particularly popular within Europe, Russia and the US/Israel – because, strategically speaking, we hold too many keys.

That’s the dilemma… see the F-110 engine blockage from US Parlament (building the 40-60 TAI KAAN would be a Power Shift in South East Europe and Middle East by 2032).
If we were geographically situated between Italy and Spain, we’d get everything we wanted; the only question then would be money.

 

[Huelague]

The meaning of sanctions is, to prevent nuclear capabilities of a state. If the state reach the capability, sanctions would not make any sense.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

But that is precisely the point: as soon as you reach the threshold of that state, you will feel the full force of it coming at you from all sides – and that is certain.
Do you really believe that Russia and China actually want Iran to possess nuclear weapons? They, too, do not want to negotiate with new nuclear players, just as the US, Israel and Europe do not.
Nuclear power is an exclusive commodity – their power is based on it, at least in large part, and if you possess it, you restrict their room for manoeuvre.

 

[Huelague]

But that is precisely the point: as soon as you reach the threshold of that state, you will feel the full force of it coming at you from all sides – and that is certain.
Do you really believe that Russia and China actually want Iran to possess nuclear weapons? They, too, do not want to negotiate with new nuclear players, just as the US, Israel and Europe do not.
Nuclear power is an exclusive commodity – their power is based on it, at least in large part, and if you possess it, you restrict their room for manoeuvre.

Have you heard anything about North Korea? No, it makes no sense to talk about N.K. anymore. It’s a point of no return with no turning back. If you reached your goal (developing nukes), why should you step back? Even countries intense the pressure by sanctions?
India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea, no one steps back. No body wants to step back. No matter what.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

That is true, but the US’s unease towards China highlights the fact that its operational reach in Asia is far more limited than is often assumed. As its influence rests almost exclusively on Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, Washington’s power base remains fragile, particularly as India is best regarded as an independent actor rather than a reliable ally. For the neighbouring states, this also presents a fundamental security dilemma: Whilst the US can withdraw across the Pacific at any time following a conflict – as history in Vietnam demonstrated – the geography remains unchangeable for Asian countries. They would have to bear the long-term consequences of a wrong decision, which is why unconditional allegiance to the US is considered too risky.
This loss of power is also evident in the event of nuclear proliferation by states such as Indonesia or Malaysia. The West could do little more than exert economic pressure here, as military intervention would immediately drive the region into China’s arms. Beijing, for its part, tends to adopt an inward-looking stance as long as its core interests are not directly affected. This makes the situation in Southeast Asia vastly different from that in Iran, whose ambitions simultaneously clash with the interests of the US/Israel/Europe, Russia and China, leaving it completely isolated in the event of a crisis.

We, too, would feel this pressure because we are a pivotal nation, acting as both a gatekeeper and a hub; geographically, we hold so many keys that all parties involved would prefer to see a weakened and controllable as Turkey.

We are too much of a thorn in their side; we hold too many keys.

 

[Yasar_TR]

Siper block 2, as you say, should provide limited defence capabilities against ballistic threats. But in essence it is a 150+km range, 30km altitude single stage missile specifically designed to intercept high altitude UAVs, jet fighters, cruise and air to ground missiles. So as you point out should give some cover against SRBMs.
The Siper 3 version will have a range of 180-200km, and more than 30+km altitude and is designed to intercept ballistic missiles in their high terminal phase. Similar to Pac-3/MSE.

To add to this I guess what is said on below video 2.00 min is important. Ex TÜBİTAK Sage MD Gutcan Okumus clearly states that:
“even though I am not at liberty to quote any range figures for Siper 2 range, it is clear that attaining 1.5-2 times the current range is potentially there. A booster addition will give different development areas too ”.

That puts Siper 2 maximum range somewhere between 225 to 300 km. Logically it’s maximum altitude will increase too.

1. Which aircraft will operate at altitudes of 100 + thousand feet?
2. How effective will a SAM be at such long ranges? These SAMs
are effective primarily as area-denial weapons rather than high-probability killers.
3. Positive engagement probability decreases significantly against fast, low-flying, or maneuvering aircraft at 2-300km ranges

So, even though Mr Gurcan Okumus has not spelt it out, he has given enough information to deduce that Siper 2 is really meant for anti ballistic missile duty, for interception at their terminal phases.

Unless of course, in his statement he was giving preliminary info on what to expect of Siper3!

 

[Pokemonte13]

Some interesting stuff in the background.

 

[Samba]

 

[Pokemonte13]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2046610034482618625

Look like an actual prototype + they changed the radars with more advanced ones compared to the mockups.

 

[Mis_TR_Like]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2046610034482618625

Look like an actual prototype + they changed the radars with more advanced ones compared to the mockups.

I'm liking what I'm seeing. Obviously we would want every single battlegroup or convoy to have adequate anti-drone defences. It's good to see matured APC based designs that can fill this role.

 

[Saithan]

So where are the orders for these ?

 

[Pokemonte13]

So where are the orders for these ?

Its most likely undergoing trial those usually take at least 2 Years and army leadership is a bit slow when it comes to change.

 

[Pokemonte13]

Updated GÜRZ 200 AD System Spotted at ASELSAN Facilities | TURDEF

Updated configuration of the GÜRZ 200 gun/missile air defence system was spotted during NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s visit to ASELSAN’s Gölbaşı facility.

turdef.com

The new Gürz 200 as a real prototype

 

[Kaan Azman]

I wasn't too sure when writing about it but there is a possibiltiy that the sungur launcher might be partially movable in azimuth, so many degrees of freedom on this thing to be honest

 

[Pokemonte13]

I wasn't too sure when writing about it but there is a possibiltiy that the sungur launcher might be partially movable in azimuth, so many degrees of freedom on this thing to be honest

The design is still different they moved the radar to the back like normal gürz

 

[boredaf]

Biggest problem we are going to have will be targeting low flying quads or FPV drones coming in close. I'm looking at the Korkut 25 now and in this configuration it has to hit the drone before it flies low or it is fucked.

There is no way those AESA plates do not get in the way if the turret has to turn while following a low flying threat. And at this point I've probably seen a hundred fucking videos of drones doing just that to hunt armoured vehicles. Hell I've seen them fly into hatches and doors. This is great for demonstration but under real world conditions it has hilariously obvious blind spots.

 

[Huelague]

As I said many times before. This "Plug-on" construction on our systems is bullshit. We need real integration.

 

[Kaan Azman]

Biggest problem we are going to have will be targeting low flying quads or FPV drones coming in close. I'm looking at the Korkut 25 now and in this configuration it has to hit the drone before it flies low or it is fucked.

There is no way those AESA plates do not get in the way if the turret has to turn while following a low flying threat. And at this point I've probably seen a hundred fucking videos of drones doing just that to hunt armoured vehicles. Hell I've seen them fly into hatches and doors. This is great for demonstration but under real world conditions it has hilariously obvious blind spots.

EchoGuard is quite optimised for cases like this, almost the same size as my cousin's Galaxy Tab and consumes little power, Canik played it smarter in this regard

 

[Pokemonte13]

Biggest problem we are going to have will be targeting low flying quads or FPV drones coming in close. I'm looking at the Korkut 25 now and in this configuration it has to hit the drone before it flies low or it is fucked.

There is no way those AESA plates do not get in the way if the turret has to turn while following a low flying threat. And at this point I've probably seen a hundred fucking videos of drones doing just that to hunt armoured vehicles. Hell I've seen them fly into hatches and doors. This is great for demonstration but under real world conditions it has hilariously obvious blind spots.

I think this is just to show the general concept and this could be more usable against Shaed style drone and not FPV.
Also aselsan showed smaller aesa radars during IDEF 25. Maybe these are not yet ready so they are maybe just placeholder.

 

[boredaf]

I think this is just to show the general concept and this could be more usable against Shaed style drone and not FPV.
Also aselsan showed smaller aesa radars during IDEF 25. Maybe these are not yet ready so they are maybe just placeholder.
View attachment 80199

Still in the way mate, they create spots the turret cannot turn to if it is aiming low, if I'm looking at it from FPV, I'm going towards the corners then going up at the last second to hit the AESA block. In fact, in both of these configurations if something comes from behind the vehicle is fucked, it is so damn crowded with 2 AESA plates on the corners and an EO mast in the middle.

I have no doubt it would be effective against anything coming from above and far away, the problem is, no one can guarantee that those are the only kind of drone it is going to face. And if you market it just against them it is more of a backline asset then a frontline one.