Canada Canada picks the F-35 in fighter replacement competition

[Ripley]

Canada Reconsidering $13.2 Billion F-35 Purchase Amid Growing Tensions With The U.S.

The news comes just one day after Portugal announced it was abandoning its plans to purchase the F-35. "Canada is actively looking at potential

theaviationist.com

By David Cenciotti

Looks like they are second in line dropping or considering cancelling F35 after Portugal. Theirs is not gonna be an easy task, however. Canada already paid for the first 16 planes and their air fleet lacking essential asset of aircraft.

 

[Nilgiri]

Canada Reconsidering $13.2 Billion F-35 Purchase Amid Growing Tensions With The U.S.

The news comes just one day after Portugal announced it was abandoning its plans to purchase the F-35. "Canada is actively looking at potential

theaviationist.com

By David Cenciotti

Looks like they are second in line dropping or considering cancelling F35 after Portugal. Theirs is not gonna be an easy task, however. Canada already paid for the first 16 planes and their air fleet lacking essential asset of aircraft.

It would make no sense to acquire just 16.

This is just to apply counter pressure on Trump admin to drop the 51st state shenanigans.

I mean RCAF either gets 5th gen for its arctic needs till 2050 (with belligerent Russia and possibly China later given NORAD with US) and beyond or it has to revisit 4.5 gen again to plug the squadron gap looming.

If the latter, then we should have already gone for the superbug, rafale or gripen already....when the first pause on F-35 was done previously.

Clownshow levels of procurement that Trump has salted now.

 

[Saithan]

It would make no sense to acquire just 16.

This is just to apply counter pressure on Trump admin to drop the 51st state shenanigans.

I mean RCAF either gets 5th gen for its arctic needs till 2050 (with belligerent Russia and possibly China later given NORAD with US) and beyond or it has to revisit 4.5 gen again to plug the squadron gap looming.

If the latter, then we should have already gone for the superbug, rafale or gripen already....when the first pause on F-35 was done previously.

Clownshow levels of procurement that Trump has salted now.

But it would make sense to diversify their air force to avoid worst outcome. Unlike Denmark which is a small nation with 5.5 mio people. Canada is much bigger and being extremely dependent on US, as things are going isn’t an option.

I have a rough gut guess that some 40-50% of the F35 orders might get cancelled, but still acquire enough to have a squadron as minimum (small countries far away from frontlines).

EF T5 might get more tractio. While T4 production might have To hold the ford.

or

LM will have to establish independent maintenance structure in EU with production, which means Turkeys production capability is going to be an important asset.

 

[Nilgiri]

But it would make sense to diversify their air force to avoid worst outcome. Unlike Denmark which is a small nation with 5.5 mio people. Canada is much bigger and being extremely dependent on US, as things are going isn’t an option.

I have a rough gut guess that some 40-50% of the F35 orders might get cancelled, but still acquire enough to have a squadron as minimum (small countries far away from frontlines).

EF T5 might get more tractio. While T4 production might have To hold the ford.

or

LM will have to establish independent maintenance structure in EU with production, which means Turkeys production capability is going to be an important asset.

Yah but I mention NORAD for a reason. RCAF is tied at the hip to USAF literally. No other 2 airforces anywhere operate/exist like this. If relations go really sour, RCAF is literally stuck in worst spot of between a rock and hard place on the infra its reliant on and accustomed to. It is simply not an option for it to go that sour.

I mean lets say somehow F-35 is cancelled (incl or excl the 16), and RCAF goes for say Rafale to replace the legacy hornets in 1:1 way.... and then jumps to the euro 6th gen thing etc....and all the costs/delays this would involve again adding to the earlier dawdling back and forth.

Canada still forks out huge amount of spending for its destroyer program to the US (lockheed martin is heavily involved by way of radar, CMS etc in very long term substantial way that cant be undone)....among other things.

These are things Trump just doesn't understand, ignorantly or deliberately.

There are 100 different easier + optimal ways to communicate, pressure and even coerce Canada "underground" (US has done it a number of times and Canada makes some red lines known too in similar way when required)......be it greater military spending, border security, tariff agreements, drugs and crime you name it......

.....without coming off as a buffoon and damaging the relationship above ground for all to see and setting all kind of dumb precedence and tension/heat and unease, confusion and worry about what's next....especially given the significant bonds that have been invested into long term.

Trump has just ruined a bunch of things for no reason (and you see mixed messaging and uncomfortiness from the ambassador he is nominating regd political sovereignty side and also folks like Bessent regd the Trade side).

Canada only option is to wait things out a bit till something else distracts Trump much more, placate him slowly and work with his team somehow to communicate how to get things back to better order in relationship, and see if this F-35 "shot across bow" maybe lubricates this all starting (like I don't know whats being discussed behind closed doors to play-act a bit.... or this is Canada winging it to see how it goes).

 

[Ripley]

Canada still considering dumping F35 purchase. The decision will be made by September 22.
Trump warns, “serious consequences“ ahead.

U.S. warns Canada of potential negative consequences if it dumps F-35 fighter jet

The review of Canada's proposed purchase of 88 U.S.-built F-35s is set to be finalized by Sept. 22.

ottawacitizen.com

 

[Ripley]

I’ve recently seen this at some media outlets and social media but I only take it seriously because of the poster, Mr. Arda Mevlütoğlu, a well respected defense analyst.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989676206720160118

“By the way, @saab is in talks with Canadian Bombardier for the licensed production of the Gripen. The Gripen was being proposed to Canada instead of the F-35. It is claimed that production here is also planned to be carried out for Ukraine.”

@Nilgiri et al
It seems that Saab is eager for such a deal but will Canada reciprocate Swedish will, considering they snoozed off the decision for quite a while in regards to sour relations in Trump era?

 

[Iskander]

I’ve recently seen this at some media outlets and social media but I only take it seriously because of the poster, Mr. Arda Mevlütoğlu, a well respected defense analyst.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989676206720160118

“By the way, @saab is in talks with Canadian Bombardier for the licensed production of the Gripen. The Gripen was being proposed to Canada instead of the F-35. It is claimed that production here is also planned to be carried out for Ukraine.”

@Nilgiri et al
It seems that Saab is eager for such a deal but will Canada reciprocate Swedish will, considering they snoozed off the decision for quite a while in regards to sour relations in Trump era?

Unbelievable! The Gripen! Instead of the F-35! How can they even be compared? Or is Canada that upset with Trump? I've never heard of the Gripen being used in combat anywhere.
The Rafale would be more plausible.

 

[Huelague]

Or is Canada that upset with Trump?

Thats the point.

 

[uçuyorum]

Thats the point.

Gripen is also cheap enough that say they can buy and produce a few and having a number of them won't put a financiak strain when they eventually decide to buy F35 and make up with america

 

[Ripley]

Unbelievable! The Gripen! Instead of the F-35! How can they even be compared? Or is Canada that upset with Trump? I've never heard of the Gripen being used in combat anywhere.
The Rafale would be more plausible.

The decision on Canadian F-35 was around since early this year. Bu Grippen came out as a candidate recently and I agree that it’s hardly capable of fulfilling some tasks of F-35.
Nevertheless, haven’t seen any legit claims on this deal from Canadian side.

Thats the point.

Exactly

 

[Ripley]

Gripen is also cheap enough that say they can buy and produce a few and having a number of them won't put a financiak strain when they eventually decide to buy F35 and make up with america

Among all 4th gen jets, it’s the cheapest solution, sure, but Saab offer supposedly involves a local production by Bombardier. And it also includes the production for Ukraine as well (maybe to sweeten the deal) which when combined would‘ve require a substantial investment initially.
But all these may not matter after all as @Nilgiri said in his post few months back

Yah but I mention NORAD for a reason. RCAF is tied at the hip to USAF literally. No other 2 airforces anywhere operate/exist like this. If relations go really sour, RCAF is literally stuck in worst spot of between a rock and hard place on the infra its reliant on and accustomed to. It is simply not an option for it to go that sour.

 

[Iskander]

Trump will be leaving the White House in three years.
And Canada will be left with the Gripen. Trump is a bit of an odd man. It's unlikely anyone will take his threats to annex Canada to the United States seriously. Incidentally, he hasn't said a word about it in a long time. Perhaps he's completely forgotten about his threats He's a man who doesn't hold grudges. Or maybe he just has no memory: He's 80 years old, no joke.

 

[Nilgiri]

I’ve recently seen this at some media outlets and social media but I only take it seriously because of the poster, Mr. Arda Mevlütoğlu, a well respected defense analyst.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989676206720160118

“By the way, @saab is in talks with Canadian Bombardier for the licensed production of the Gripen. The Gripen was being proposed to Canada instead of the F-35. It is claimed that production here is also planned to be carried out for Ukraine.”

@Nilgiri et al
It seems that Saab is eager for such a deal but will Canada reciprocate Swedish will, considering they snoozed off the decision for quite a while in regards to sour relations in Trump era?

A look into the matters right now:

Canada’s battle of the fighter jets: F-35 vs the Gripen

Everything you need to know about the F-35 and Gripen fighter jets.

ottawacitizen.com

I personally think the F-35 faction will win out in the end, especially since:

- Canada is commited to the 16 (out of the earlier 88 total thats put on hold, that DND is pausing the report on proceeding with given the Trump issues i.e sovereignty blabbing and tarrifs etc)

- Existing industrial partnerships (SAAB is offering a new one, but it is fresh out of the block compared to the long term one Canada has forged with LM and its partners already in operation)

- NORAD, yes the Gripen is a NATO operated platform and Sweden itself has now joined NATO.....but there is simply another scale of dividend with being closely operable with the USAF given the scale of what the F-35 is, and how it will be taken forward to 6th Gen etc.

The Gripen would have made much more sense much earlier acquisition wise as a straight 1:1 replacement for the legacy hornets. i.e to have squadron bulk assured for the 2030s etc. i.e that window when superhornet and rafale etc also came into contention when F-35 "Cost issue" reshaped that program back in late 2000s and early 2010s.

Then have a 5G program separate to it, where the F-35 is natural contender and it then becomes a straight open/shut case of relations with US to take that forward. But Canada has been deficient on military spending w.r.t NATO levels (PM Carney is only addressing this now) that adds to all the time wasted and in-clarity. i.e this approach needed a much earlier commitment by Canada to raise defence to 2% of GDP and then 3% etc to support an (optimal) dual acquisition. Canada also could not have foreseen Trump 2nd term taking these contours it has...nothing to suggest it from trump first term.

Well we can only wait and see how the relationship goes in the coming months, what (stupidity) Trump will move away from and give pre-existing relationship to take shape again.

 

[Ripley]

A look into the matters right now:

Canada’s battle of the fighter jets: F-35 vs the Gripen

Everything you need to know about the F-35 and Gripen fighter jets.

ottawacitizen.com

I personally think the F-35 faction will win out in the end, especially since:

- Canada is commited to the 16 (out of the earlier 88 total thats put on hold, that DND is pausing the report on proceeding with given the Trump issues i.e sovereignty blabbing and tarrifs etc)

- Existing industrial partnerships (SAAB is offering a new one, but it is fresh out of the block compared to the long term one Canada has forged with LM and its partners already in operation)

- NORAD, yes the Gripen is a NATO operated platform and Sweden itself has now joined NATO.....but there is simply another scale of dividend with being closely operable with the USAF given the scale of what the F-35 is, and how it will be taken forward to 6th Gen etc.

The Gripen would have made much more sense much earlier acquisition wise as a straight 1:1 replacement for the legacy hornets. i.e to have squadron bulk assured for the 2030s etc. i.e that window when superhornet and rafale etc also came into contention when F-35 "Cost issue" reshaped that program back in late 2000s and early 2010s.

Then have a 5G program separate to it, where the F-35 is natural contender and it then becomes a straight open/shut case of relations with US to take that forward. But Canada has been deficient on military spending w.r.t NATO levels (PM Carney is only addressing this now) that adds to all the time wasted and in-clarity. i.e this approach needed a much earlier commitment by Canada to raise defence to 2% of GDP and then 3% etc to support an (optimal) dual acquisition. Canada also could not have foreseen Trump 2nd term taking these contours it has...nothing to suggest it from trump first term.

Well we can only wait and see how the relationship goes in the coming months, what (stupidity) Trump will move away from and give pre-existing relationship to take shape again.

Thanks for clarifying one more time where Canada stands At this point.
Most people, are not aware of the fact that Canada and USA kinda interwoven at defense of North America.
Guess wait and see is the name of the game.
Oh, and btw, you’re right. His first term was not as harassing as his current one.