TR Economy & Updates

[Nilgiri]

Good results but those are still rookie numbers, we need to reach 300-400bln € in exports and most importantly finally get rid off the current account deficit. And if then the average citizen profit from the economy too, than I am finally happy.

Yes, need to look at the imports side too....is that reaching new high's as well and keeping CAD the same.

If so, then the increases are largely being pushed by USD underlying inflation effects.

This is happening in a number of countries (i.e stopping analysis at just the export USD side and not looking deeper).

 

[Nilgiri]

Reporting both sides:

Turkey’s trade deficit widens to $4.3B in July, 7-month gap falls

Turkey’s foreign trade deficit widened 51.3% year-on-year in July, the highest level in four months, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute...

www.dailysabah.com

Turkey’s exports climbed 10.2% to $16.4 billion and imports rose 16.8% to $20.7 billion compared with July 2020, the institute said.

The exports-to-imports coverage ratio slipped to 79.3% in July, versus 84% in the same month of last year.

==========================

And some think exports will be doubled within a year.....ok. Good understanding.

 

[mulj]

One FCL was about 1000 euro to european ports from china, today it is atl last 5 times more if you are really lucky. Turkish recent exports sucesse in great extent is based on this and it will be even higher, book worm economy analytics does not follow real life events and hunchs how will bussiness bounce.
Some Turkish companies that i worked with are piled with orders for next cople of montHs and it is like that since pandemic. Exports will grow almost lineary...

 

[Constan]

Reporting both sides:

Turkey’s trade deficit widens to $4.3B in July, 7-month gap falls

Turkey’s foreign trade deficit widened 51.3% year-on-year in July, the highest level in four months, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute...

www.dailysabah.com

Turkey’s exports climbed 10.2% to $16.4 billion and imports rose 16.8% to $20.7 billion compared with July 2020, the institute said.

The exports-to-imports coverage ratio slipped to 79.3% in July, versus 84% in the same month of last year.

==========================

And some think exports will be doubled within a year.....ok. Good understanding.

Most of the imports are gas and oil right ?

What is the total exports in 2021 ? we passed $200 bln ?

 

[Merzifonlu]

Most of the imports are gas and oil right ?

Basicaly energy, yes.

 

[Zafer]

Most of the imports are gas and oil right ?

What is the total exports in 2021 ? we passed $200 bln ?

The past 12 months is $207.5bn. But this period is not between the beginning and end of the year, so that figure will be a little different.

 

[Ravenman]

We must develop a domestic homegrown car very quickly. The streets and traffics here a full with stupid Fiats, Renaults, Hyundais, Toyotas, Skodas etc.

We are importing millions of stupid cars every year creating jobs in Europe and depleting money of Turkish working class.

Imagine how much the import will decraes if we have our own production plant that produces Turkish cars. Not only the cars, even the spare parts are imported.

 

[CAN_TR]

We must develop a domestic homegrown car very quickly. The streets and traffics here a full with stupid Fiats, Renaults, Hyundais, Toyotas, Skodas etc.

We are exporting millions of stupid cars every year creating jobs in Europe and depleting money of Turkish working class.

Imagine how much the import will decraes if we have our own production plant that produces Turkish cars. Not only the cars, even the spare parts are imported.

For electric cars with price tag up to 40.000€ the German Gov. for example supports you with 9000€.

Turkey should switch to electrical cars asap, decrease taxes and provide similar support, then you will see TOGG instead foreign cars.

 

[Saithan]

For electric cars with price tag up to 40.000€ the German Gov. for example supports you with 9000€.

Turkey should switch to electrical cars asap, decrease taxes and provide similar support, then you will see TOGG instead foreign cars.

It still depends on production cost and such vs. sales price. I'd personally purchase a smaller economic fossil fuel car than go with an electric vehicle, even a second hand fossil fuel car would be a better choice. Price matters.

 

[Constan]

So if most of imports are for electricity this is not a big issue (IMO). With renewable energy + nuclear energy + other clean energy resource we can decrease the percentage.

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1433735879487545344

Inflation on foodstuff hits 28%, like I said before check the Bazaar prices weekly to get an idea of inflation

 

[TheInsider]

You can't hide those things. ÜFE(producer's inflation) is something like %45 while TÜFE(consumer's inflation) is given as ~%19. Either producers are idiots or there is something fishy. Because this fishy trend has been going on for a year. The reason can't be the marketing of existing stock of goods. Consumer's inflation is around %30-35 and producers are also probably taking %10-15 of the losses and selling for fewer profits not to lose market share.

 

[Huelague]

Good results but those are still rookie numbers, we need to reach 300-400bln € in exports and most importantly finally get rid off the current account deficit. And if then the average citizen profit from the economy too, than I am finally happy.

1. Cut inflation to half
2. Cut current trade deficit in half
3. Cut unemployment in half
4. Cut exchange rate in half
5. Create more jobs
6. Double the export ratio
Than I am happy. Anything else are eyeswiper.

 

[Huelague]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1433735879487545344

Inflation on foodstuff hits 28%, like I said before check the Bazaar prices weekly to get an idea of inflation

The Rich are getting richer and poor getting poorer. AKP is fooling all of us!

 

[Nilgiri]

Most of the imports are gas and oil right ?

What is the total exports in 2021 ? we passed $200 bln ?

Talking about only goods/merchandise for now:

Energy makes up around 25/193 = 13% of Turkish imports in recent years. Here it is for 2019:

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/tur

Interestingly (if you look at the other charts in website), Turkish own energy exports (mostly refined petroleum) account for paying about 30% of its energy import bill. I didn't think it would be that high.

Anyway I doubt oil/gas price increase is pushing a huge amount of import bill just by itself (given it represented ~13% basket value in 2019 and crude oil barrel price in 2019 was around $56 compared to 64$ today).

Year 2021 is not finished yet (for goods exports*) but it is likely it will be around 200 billion USD in the end I think, lets see.

Turkish Goods exports took a big decrease from 2019 to 2020 (from 182 to 168 billion according to World Bank)

So using 168 (2020) as base, there is going to be large export increases in 2021 each month.

About 6% of it comes from USD inflation and most of rest of it is volumetric increase back to 2019 level.

Getting Turkish goods exports past 200 billion dollars (esp once the USD inflation "bump" goes away) needs structural reform to increase genuine quality investment.

The AKP administration seems most reluctant to do this....and as @Anmdt and others have said here seems more involved in cherrypicking numbers without context to try look good (rather than do good).

It will likely be left to next administration to create healthy investment culture (that needs sound judicial system in operation) and also take steps to clear out the big mess in Turkish banking sector done by current administration.

Then and only then is there steady and better realisation of existing Turkish productivity and funding streams to create further improvement in it...to double export level.

People pulling out all kind of projections about 300 or 400 billion export level being reached in 1 year time and extreme fanboying/covering for AKP admin is not an unseen phenomenon in this forum, and has already been appropriately handled by rational Turkish members here.


*Total exports include service exports too (tourism, IT, finance services etc)....this figure added about 65 billion to total (180 + 65 = 245) in 2019 and took a huge whack in 2020 (halving to about 35 billion... and total diminishing to 168 + 35 = 203)

Its (services) recovery also is happening this year, so trends (large % growth) are similar overall to goods-only figure.
But again more investment is needed to get it past the relatively stagnant high water mark turkey has been in since 2014.

The stagnancy (when looking at total goods+service exports and imports...and one can look at just goods too if they desire) can be seen by anyone....suggesting structural reform is not happening for near 7 years now to address it:

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Goods only figures, exports and imports for Turkey:

Goods exports (BoP, current US$) - Turkiye | Data

Goods exports (BoP, current US$) - Turkiye from The World Bank: Data

data.worldbank.org

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

But I guess people can all see the same thing and come to different opinions/conclusions about what exports and imports will be like in 1 year.

One cannot account for everyone's emotionalism/rationalism ratio.

I have already spent too much time with some Indians (in near similar fashion to what is seen here by Turkey), explaining that the fanboyism for reaching 600 billion USD level in 2021 (total exports) is not good to do as it represents about 9% increase from 2019 (of 550 billion)...and hence basically tracks the USD inflation level (i.e 600 billion today represents the same amount of "stuff" as 550 billion did in 2019)

i.e India also needs large scale reforms to sustain growth (exports or otherwise) to larger levels (though IMO Indian administration is accomplishing this to some degree compared to AKP, esp if you look at things like FDI and other investment numbers)

 

[Abdelaziz]

Talking about only goods/merchandise for now:

Energy makes up around 25/193 = 13% of Turkish imports in recent years. Here it is for 2019:

View attachment 30267

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/tur

Interestingly (if you look at the other charts in website), Turkish own energy exports (mostly refined petroleum) account for paying about 30% of its energy import bill. I didn't think it would be that high.

Anyway I doubt oil/gas price increase is pushing a huge amount of import bill just by itself (given it represented ~13% basket value in 2019 and crude oil barrel price in 2019 was around $56 compared to 64$ today).

Year 2021 is not finished yet (for goods exports*) but it is likely it will be around 200 billion USD in the end I think, lets see.

Turkish Goods exports took a big decrease from 2019 to 2020 (from 182 to 168 billion according to World Bank)

So using 168 (2020) as base, there is going to be large export increases in 2021 each month.

About 6% of it comes from USD inflation and most of rest of it is volumetric increase back to 2019 level.

Getting Turkish goods exports past 200 billion dollars (esp once the USD inflation "bump" goes away) needs structural reform to increase genuine quality investment.

The AKP administration seems most reluctant to do this....and as @Anmdt and others have said here seems more involved in cherrypicking numbers without context to try look good (rather than do good).

It will likely be left to next administration to create healthy investment culture (that needs sound judicial system in operation) and also take steps to clear out the big mess in Turkish banking sector done by current administration.

Then and only then is there steady and better realisation of existing Turkish productivity and funding streams to create further improvement in it...to double export level.

People pulling out all kind of projections about 300 or 400 billion export level being reached in 1 year time and extreme fanboying/covering for AKP admin is not an unseen phenomenon in this forum, and has already been appropriately handled by rational Turkish members here.


*Total exports include service exports too (tourism, IT, finance services etc)....this figure added about 65 billion to total (180 + 65 = 245) in 2019 and took a huge whack in 2020 (halving to about 35 billion... and total diminishing to 168 + 35 = 203)

Its (services) recovery also is happening this year, so trends (large % growth) are similar overall to goods-only figure.
But again more investment is needed to get it past the relatively stagnant high water mark turkey has been in since 2014.

The stagnancy (when looking at total goods+service exports and imports...and one can look at just goods too if they desire) can be seen by anyone....suggesting structural reform is not happening for near 7 years now to address it:

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Goods only figures, exports and imports for Turkey:

Goods exports (BoP, current US$) - Turkiye | Data

Goods exports (BoP, current US$) - Turkiye from The World Bank: Data

data.worldbank.org

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

But I guess people can all see the same thing and come to different opinions/conclusions about what exports and imports will be like in 1 year.

One cannot account for everyone's emotionalism/rationalism ratio.

I have already spent too much time with some Indians (in near similar fashion to what is seen here by Turkey), explaining that the fanboyism for reaching 600 billion USD level in 2021 (total exports) is not good to do as it represents about 9% increase from 2019 (of 550 billion)...and hence basically tracks the USD inflation level (i.e 600 billion today represents the same amount of "stuff" as 550 billion did in 2019)

i.e India also needs large scale reforms to sustain growth (exports or otherwise) to larger levels (though IMO Indian administration is accomplishing this to some degree compared to AKP, esp if you look at things like FDI and other investment numbers)

IMO the most important thing turkish economy needs is stability .. turkey suffered 6-7 years of catastrophics .. both internally and externally

 

[Nilgiri]

IMO the most important thing turkish economy needs is stability .. turkey suffered 6-7 years of catastrophics .. both internally and externally

Stability, governance, reform....they all go hand in hand.

 

[Ravenman]

Food prizes are increasing worldwide because of shortages, its a global problem.

The only remedy to this is producing food domestically and thats something Turkey cant.

We have billions of cows and sheep but we are importing meat from Argentine and milk from France. Its like a joke.

 

[Lonewolf]

Food prizes are increasing worldwide because of shortages, its a global problem.

The only remedy to this is producing food domestically and thats something Turkey cant.

We have billions of cows and sheep but we are importing meat from Argentine and milk from France. Its like a joke.

So what happens to those animals ??

 

[Saithan]

Government releases 3-year roadmap for Turkish economy​

ANKARA​

Turkey’s economy is projected to expand 9% this year and grow a further 5% in 2022, according to the country’s medium-term economic program published in the Official Gazette late on Sept. 5.

The government is aiming for growth of 5.5% in 2023 and 2024, according to the three-year program, while the average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate target is 5.3%.

Turkey’s GDP jumped 21.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2021, the highest annual growth rate since 1999, according to official data released last week.

Commenting on the program, Treasury and Finance Minister Lütfi Elvan said on Twitter: “We will further strengthen macroeconomic stability for durable growth led by the private sector.”

Turkey’s annual inflation, which climbed to 19.25% in August from 18.95% in July, is projected to hit 16.2% by the end of this year.

It is expected to fall to 9.8% by the end of 2022, according to the new economic program, while the year-end targets for 2023 and 2024 are 8% and 7.6%, respectively.

The current account deficit to GDP ratio is projected to be 2.2% next year, further narrowing to 1.5% in 2023 and 1% in 2024.

The GDP per capita is expected to surpass $11,000 by 2024, according to the program. The figure will be $9,947 in 2022, $10,703 in 2023, and $11,465 in 2024.

The government is aiming for the GDP to exceed $850 billion in 2022, before hitting $975 billion in 2023 and topping $1 trillion in 2024.

Turkey's GDP with current prices is projected to be around $801 billion this year, while it stood at $717 billion in 2020, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute.

The U.S. dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate will be around 8.30 by the end of this year and increase to 9.27 in 2022, 9.77 in 2023, and 10.26 in 2024, according to the program.

The country’s exports target is $230.9 billion for 2022 and grows to $255 billion by 2024.

Turkey’s budget deficit, which has widened due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, is projected to increase in the coming few years.

It is expected to be 230 billion Turkish liras ($27.7 billion) this year, with a target of 278.4 billion liras ($30 billion) for 2022, 290.2 billion ($29.7 billion) in 2023, and 294 billion liras ($28.7 billion) in 2024.

The unemployment rate in Turkey, which stood at 10.6% in June, will hit 12.6% by the end of this year, according to the program’s estimates.

The government aims to bring it down to 12% next year, 11.4% in 2023, and 10.9% in 2024.

Government releases 3-year roadmap for Turkish economy - Latest News

Turkey’s economy is projected to expand 9% this year and grow a further 5% in 2022, according to the country’s medium-term economic program published in the Official Gazette late on Sept. 5.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

______________________________

This is called a fairy tale for the desperate. If it works they can get some votes out of this sort of things. Actions speak louder than words.

Since that's the case the citizen will look at "what do we I get out of this here and now."

"What's the price of food next week."

Government will continue spouting their propaganda, but the citizen is smart. They'll close their ears and look at the prices.

That's all it'll take to get a new government.