TR Economy & Updates

[Lool]

Guys
Does anyone know the Turkish current account data for the months of March and April?

 

[TheInsider]

Guys
Does anyone know the Turkish current account data for the months of March and April?

The Turkish economy faces real default risk. Increased energy prices are the last straw that broke the camel's back.

Turkish exports hit record $23.4B as energy weighs on trade deficit

Turkey registered the highest monthly exports ever in April, official data showed Thursday, while its trade deficit nearly doubled mainly due to soaring...

www.dailysabah.com

 

[Nilgiri]

The Turkish economy faces real default risk. Increased energy prices are the last straw that broke the camel's back.

Turkish exports hit record $23.4B as energy weighs on trade deficit

Turkey registered the highest monthly exports ever in April, official data showed Thursday, while its trade deficit nearly doubled mainly due to soaring...

www.dailysabah.com

Lira is almost at 16 to USD again.....

This is with the sponge of local deposit (returns insurance) backing intervention measure now operating for 2022 so far....

i.e it is close to the pre-intervention number now.

@Manomed @Saithan et al.

 

[Manomed]

Lira is almost at 16 to USD again.....

This is with the sponge of local deposit (returns insurance) backing intervention measure now operating for 2022 so far....

i.e it is close to the pre-intervention number now.

@Manomed @Saithan et al.

I had my money on dollar

 

[Lool]

The Turkish economy faces real default risk. Increased energy prices are the last straw that broke the camel's back.

Turkish exports hit record $23.4B as energy weighs on trade deficit

Turkey registered the highest monthly exports ever in April, official data showed Thursday, while its trade deficit nearly doubled mainly due to soaring...

www.dailysabah.com

Agreed
It is kinda ironic that most of Erdo's problems can be alleviated by just increasing the interest rates for 6 to 8 months

IMO, making the interest rates at 25-30% and making the lira stable at the 7.5-8 range will ensure reduced inflation, growth, and a current account surplus

All what he needs to do is swallow that prode till the end of the year for Gods sake

 

[Ryder]

Agreed
It is kinda ironic that most of Erdo's problems can be alleviated by just increasing the interest rates for 6 to 8 months

IMO, making the interest rates at 25-30% and making the lira stable at the 7.5-8 range will ensure reduced inflation, growth, and a current account surplus

All what he needs to do is swallow that prode till the end of the year for Gods sake

Turkish lira has always been shit and will get more shit in the future. Turkish lira has never been strong and Erdogan has not made it any better.

Thats why most people carry usd or euro.

 

[Ryder]

I can see why Turkiye tries to join the EU. Because Euro is a strong currency that takes on usd.

 

[Anastasius]

Turkish lira has always been shit and will get more shit in the future. Turkish lira has never been strong and Erdogan has not made it any better.

Thats why most people carry usd or euro.

No, that's just defeatism talking. There's an easy solution but Erdogan won't take it.

 

[what]

Getting rid of our central bank and a stable currency like the Euro would be nice for Turkey, but you see how the Euro has helped or not helped smaller countries such as Greece.

But it is entirely possible to have a stable Lira, just dont let politicians meddle with the central bank and let the CB do their thing.

 

[Abdelaziz]

If the exchange rate is the big point .. gov can take measures to stabilize it .. like controll the access of individuals to foreign currency except those who have business and with a permission .. ban the importing of lots of goods .. BTW .. egypt did that .. they even asked the producers to pay for their imports to the cb with the local currency and the cb should give them permission first and provide the fx when available .. it slowed the devaluation of local currency for some time .. but at what cost ?
Destroying the market ? Decrease the purchasing power .. withdrawal of foreign investors ? Marked damage to exports ?

 

[Abdelaziz]

Imo .. the increase of exports and production and protection of producers and small firms .. decrease the current account gap .. increase the jobs .. decrease the imports .. attraction of the direct investments are the most important goals

 

[Lool]

Imo .. the increase of exports and production and protection of producers and small firms .. decrease the current account gap .. increase the jobs .. decrease the imports .. attraction of the direct investments are the most important goals

That is true if you have currency stability first

Things were going well when the lira was at 8 to a dollar last year
We got all what you mentioned plus a sense of stability

 

[Abdelaziz]

That is true if you have currency stability first

Things were going well when the lira was at 8 to a dollar last year
We got all what you mentioned plus a sense of stability

We have to not ignore the massive crises that faces the international economies esp growing economies .. covid .. ukrainian crisis .. chip crisis .. supply chain crisis .. and dont forget the crises that faces turkey since years .. syrian war .. western sanctions .. coup attempt .. the attempt to keep the currency exchange rate unchanged could burn the fx reserves .. so .. i think currency devaluation is highly expected

 

[Lool]

We have to not ignore the massive crises that faces the international economies esp growing economies .. covid .. ukrainian crisis .. chip crisis .. supply chain crisis .. and dont forget the crises that faces turkey since years .. syrian war .. western sanctions .. coup attempt .. the attempt to keep the currency exchange rate unchanged could burn the fx reserves .. so .. i think currency devaluation is highly expected

That is why increasing the interest rates is the way to go

 

[Abdelaziz]

That is why increasing the interest rates is the way to go

The interest rate is already high .. and i dont think it would help much if they increased it ..
But measures that limit the fx speculation would help better .. also some restriction on imports would be helpful .. esp for luxuries and non basic imports that have local alternatives ...

 

[Abdelaziz]

The interest rate is already high .. and i dont think it would help much if they increased it ..
But measures that limit the fx speculation would help better .. also some restriction on imports would be helpful .. esp for luxuries and non basic imports that have local alternatives ...

Also as a medium and long run plan .. the state should found a solution to hydrocarbons needs .. which is a big problem .. by nuclear power .. renewable sources .. gas discovers

 

[Lool]

The interest rate is already high .. and i dont think it would help much if they increased it ..
But measures that limit the fx speculation would help better .. also some restriction on imports would be helpful .. esp for luxuries and non basic imports that have local alternatives ...

Fpr interest rates to be effective, the rate should be above inflation levels
If inflation is at 3%, then an interest rate of 4% will be effective; thus, it isnt about how "high" the rate is, it is about whether it is higher or lower than the official interest rate

Turkey's inflation is at 70% due to lira devaluation; thus, an initial steriod injection in the form of interest rate hikes to 25-30% will help propel the lira to below 10 to a dollar and this will slowly reduce inflation rate after which the interest rate is reduced

This is the way Turkey should go. Erdo needs to suck up his pride for at least once; trust me when I say that it hurts seeing that CHP fools gaining popularity from a mistake that Erdo can easily solve but isnt

 

[Nilgiri]

Fpr interest rates to be effective, the rate should be above inflation levels
If inflation is at 3%, then an interest rate of 4% will be effective; thus, it isnt about how "high" the rate is, it is about whether it is higher or lower than the official interest rate

Turkey's inflation is at 70% due to lira devaluation; thus, an initial steriod injection in the form of interest rate hikes to 25-30% will help propel the lira to below 10 to a dollar and this will slowly reduce inflation rate after which the interest rate is reduced

This is the way Turkey should go. Erdo needs to suck up his pride for at least once; trust me when I say that it hurts seeing that CHP fools gaining popularity from a mistake that Erdo can easily solve but isnt

Yup have to control the fever before you can address underlying symptoms.

But even underlying symptoms are not being addressed anyway.

 

[Abdelaziz]

Yup have to control the fever before you can address underlying symptoms.

But even underlying symptoms are not being addressed anyway.

Its better to diagnose and treat the underlying cause then all the symptoms will resolve simultaneously .. if u are a smart doctor .. you will be able to reach a correct diagnosis and treat accordingly... Not just a symptomatic treatment

 

[Nilgiri]

Its better to diagnose and treat the underlying cause then all the symptoms will resolve simultaneously .. if u are a smart doctor .. you will be able to reach a correct diagnosis and treat accordingly... Not just a symptomatic treatment

Only if you show you can control fever, does it mean you are serious about treating the underlying conditions (that led to the fever).

If you continue playing in the wet rain and make things worse....you are then even less serious....at great damage to your body.