TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

GoatsMilk

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If anything Putin is proving everyone around that NATO is the past, the present and the future. We will see more cooperation and defense expenditure now.

Pretty much, NATO was falling apart at the seams with most nations pursuing national interest over collective interest. Then Putin invades Ukraine and not only does it unite NATO, it has guaranteed her further expansion while also exposing Russia as no real alternative too it.
 

GoatsMilk

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On the surface it may seem wise for Turkey to 'sit on the fence' whilst also providing Ukraine with aid such TB-2 ammunition.

However, on reflection this strategy will no doubt backfire given that Russia is untrustworthy. I can see Russia using the closure of Black Sea access as an excuse to apply sanction on Turkey or black Russian tourists from traveling to Turkey in the future. Its clear that Bayraktar popularity and its impact on the battefield will be noted by Russia, so one can also expect a Russian response from this.

If the Turkish government intends on maintaining strong ties with Russia to prevent economic damage they are being rather ignortant. Do they really expect Russians and Ukrainians to travel/holiday in Turkey given the immense damage war has brought to each nation's economy. Don't be surprised to see Russia having 'technical diffculties' with delivering gas to Turkey until the Bosphorus and Dardanelles are re-opened.

People who talk about Turkish Russia relations always come from the position that Turkey does something and Russia will react to it. They couldn't be anymore wrong about this, but i dont blame them because the British media intentionally lies to her people concerning Turkey.

When Russia invaded Crimea and western sanctions were applied against Russia, Turkey didnt join the sanctions and she did everything not to get in the way of Russia.

Erdogans foreign policy generally stayed out of the way of Russias regional concerns.

This all changed when Russia actively joined the Syrian war on the side of the dictator and started indiscriminately bombing civilians and supporting the PKK/YPG there overtly. This lead to millions of refugees rushing to Turkey, it created instability within Turkey and outside her borders.

Russian support for the separatist ambitions of the extreme left wing communist terrorists was a great insult. Who could forget all the Russian flags being placed on YPG positions to threaten Turkey not to do anything.

Then came the Russian jet incident, the Russians who have a big history of trying to intimidate and threaten everyone were sending their jets into Turkish airspace as a message threatening Turkey not to do anything, as a result Turkey downed a jet. What came after was not only sanctions from Russia but the entire NATO alliance condemning Turkey for it, "kick Turkey out of NATO" slogans as well as NATO members removing their air defence systems from Turkey. I think only Spanish patriots remained.

This caused Erdogan to recalculate the situation, he realised that Turkey was alone in Syria and would have to do business with Russia to try and get things done. This is why the s400 got purchased, because erdogan seeing the americans also supporting her enemies in syria was trapped. He needed to find a way to secure Turkeys regional concerns and of the two in syria, america and russia, the russians were at least willing to do business.

However every deal with Russia always came with strings attached and it never played out in any honourable way, the russians would constantly backtrack and change the terms of agreement unilaterally.

However the catalyst that changed Turkish Russian relations was the brazen attack that killed Turkish troops in Syria. An unprovoked attack by Russia on Turkish positions whose co-ordinates were directly given to Russia to avoid such an incident took place. Erdogan and his media initially tried to hide the incident and when they couldn't hide it they blamed it on Assad, only for Russia to then show the attack on their media as another insult to Turkey. This event changed everything.

This is where the world first witnessed Turkish drone warfare doctrine. For the first time Russian air defences systems internationally were made to look like absolute garbage.


Since the Russians killed Turkish troops the Turks in the space of 2 years have countered Russia in Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan and now Ukraine.

The first drone strike released by Ukraine on a Russian convoy was released on the two year anniversary when the Russians killed the Turkish troops, that wasn't by chance. That was an intentional message for Putin to fester over.

Turkish Russia relations are going to continue down this path, where both nations will do business but Turkey will work to counter Russia in every battlefield possible. This was caused by Russia not Turkey, by her defacto hostile position to Turkish national concerns.
 

Lool

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How come all the advanced Russian air defences are deployed against Ukraine but they can't shoot down a TB2?
In the first days of the war, Ukrainian jets were shot down over kyiv by missiles from an S400 system in bloody Belarus
That is neatly a 150 km+ distance

Russia havent used its most lethal weapons in Ukraine yet
Most of the AD systems Russia used in the war is S300 (which Ukraine owns) and BUK systems
 

TheInsider

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S-400 holds the furthest confirmed SAM kill record at 150+km.
Zafer Squadron is very happy with the performance of the S-400 system.
Forget S-400, Ukrainian S-300s are performing really well.
IMG_20190720_143811.jpg
 

Xenon54

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To do what?
Yeah, who needs a 5th gen fighter while all its neighbors are getting armed to teeth?...
*sarcasm off

This mindset of you guys is the reason why our foreign policy is a disaster.
 

Zafer

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Yeah, who needs a 5th gen fighter while all its neighbors are getting armed to teeth?...
*sarcasm off

This mindset of you guys is the reason why our foreign policy is a disaster.
Why don't you answer the simple question?
 

Zafer

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Because our neighbors are getting edge over Turkey regarding airforce, why do i have to answer that question to begin with?

That is not an answer.

Do you want to use it against American allies, forget about it.

Do you want to use it against some opponent that America does not want to inflict damage, forget about it.

What does it leave you with?

Russia and Iran

Do you need an F35 to go against Iran, NO.

It leaves you with Russia

Do you have a problem with Russia, absolutely not, not a problem that you can solve by warring.

We will roll out our air superiority fighter TFX just 12 months from now.

We will fly our TFX in 40 months from now and match the quality of the top Russian fighter jet Su-57 right then.

5 years from now if Russia will not have solved engine problems of their top fighter jet we will have surpassed Russia in that department.

Now what do we need this F35 that is nothing but trouble for? And give America our hard earned money that we have many uses for.
 

Xenon54

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We will roll out our air superiority fighter TFX just 12 months from now.
And you think we will mass produce a 5th gen. fighter within the next 20 years.
You are against buying western jets but not aware that our own jet will use engine from west.
All this on the assumption that Turkey will be able to produce a 5th gen fighter to begin with.

How is Altay program going btw?

Yeah, really not worth the discussion at all
 

Zafer

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And you think we will mass produce a 5th gen. fighter within the next 20 years.
You are against buying western jets but not aware that our own jet will use engine from west.
All this on the assumption that Turkey will be able to produce a 5th gen fighter to begin with.

How is Altay program going btw?

Yeah, really not worth the discussion at all

Haven't you heard that RR have come on board to develop that engine for us?
And we have engineers that make things happen.
Your lack of trust that Turks can make things happen is a curse.
 

Xenon54

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Haven't you heard that RR have come on board to develop that engine for us?
And we have engineers that make things happen.
Your lack of trust that Turks can make things happen is a curse.
Where is RR from again?
Dude the worlds sole superpower with much higher man power and budget needed decades to develop a 5th gen fighter and it still has bugs that are being corrected continously, what makes you think that Turkey will produce adequate numbers of 5th gen fighters before 2040?

A drone such as Anka is a toy compared to it, how long was the deleopment time?
 

Zafer

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Where is RR from again?
Dude the worlds sole superpower with much higher man power and budget needed decades to develop a 5th gen fighter and it still has bugs that are being corrected continously, what makes you think that Turkey will produce adequate numbers of 5th gen fighters before 2040?

A drone such as Anka is a toy compared to it, how long was the deleopment time?
You are dancing to your own tune.
Objecting the purchase of F35 has nothing to do with making engines with RR.

Americans made the F22 and the F35 as the first of their kind developments within the limited simulation capabilities of several decades past while today we are using simulators that give more accurate results. We are also getting engineering support from British BAE Systems for design of the plane and giving the design work of the engine to the most experienced engine designer again British RR. Involving British engineering support in the development of TFX will make the process a good 7 year shorter and eliminate chances off setbacks along the way.

Even the planes made by smaller Baykar have lots of computers in it and they work just fine.
There are still risks but on paper at least they are resolved and a straight path is laid ahead.
In a decades time we will most likely not have to purchase any foreign equipment for defense.
 

Ryder

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You are dancing to your own tune.
Objecting the purchase of F35 has nothing to do with making engines with RR.

Americans made the F22 and the F35 as the first of their kind developments within the limited simulation capabilities of several decades past while today we are using simulators that give more accurate results. We are also getting engineering support from British BAE Systems for design of the plane and giving the design work of the engine to the most experienced engine designer again British RR. Involving British engineering support in the development of TFX will make the process a good 7 year shorter and eliminate chances off setbacks along the way.

Even the planes made by smaller Baykar have lots of computers in it and they work just fine.
There are still risks but on paper at least they are resolved and a straight path is laid ahead.
In a decades time we will most likely not have to purchase any foreign equipment for defense.

F22 dates back to the 80s while the F35 dates back to the 90s.

It takes decades.
 

Zafer

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F22 dates back to the 80s while the F35 dates back to the 90s.

It takes decades.
It says 2001 for F35

Today's mobile phones are as powerful as super computers of 15-20 years ago.
What take decades for the first try will take half as much for a second time (Mr Aksit about engine development time get halved for a second time).
 
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