TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Rooxbar]

Funny coming from the Chinese channel, because they're not an American ally and still don't oppose Israel. They made the J-10 and J-20 thanks to Israel.

The channel is platforming anyone who is willing to poo-poo Israel, defend Hezbollah, etc. while China is over there saying "We want to live in love and peace with the world, please don't downgrade our credit rating, we love Israel and Hezbollah should disband itself."

 

[Heartbang]

Funny coming from the Chinese channel, because they're not an American ally and still don't oppose Israel. They made the J-10 and J-20 thanks to Israel.

Don't we have veto rights on all-non tripartite military establishments? (anyone else but TR-GR-UK?)

 

[Iskander]

You are proving my point.

Yes, Israel and the Jewish lobby is actively working against Turkey but let's not forget who started this "Cold war"- it was Erdogan with his ambitions to be a Muslim leader and protector of Palestinians who provoked it (Davos, Mavi Marmara and etc). Out of nowhere he created problems and helped old ones to become even bigger.

I can write more and more but don't really want to waste time for stuff that we have discussed 1000 times before.

Yes, Erdogan started it all. He started with his speech in January in Switzerland, at a panel dedicated to restoring peace in the Middle East and Gaza.

That's how he "restored" peace
He was offended there by the American presenter of Greek origin Ignatius. And he ... exploded. And then and now I consider his speech a big mistake.
Erdogan announced "zero problems with neighbors" that same year.
(Probably few people remember the "Zurich Protocol" today, which provided for the opening of the border with Armenia)
The following year, he sent Mavi Marmara to Gaza.
In 2016, Obama himself decided to reconcile him with Netanyahu. Netanyahu personally asked for a petition for Marmara. But...
This, so to speak, policy has been going on for 15 years

 

[Tabmachine]

Never pay attention to what they say, everything they say is meant to distract, destabilise you or influence your actions in their favour. Only pay attention to what they do and once you do that, everything they have done is consistent and everything they do moving forward will be consistent.

I dont care how many positive or negative things they have said about Turkiye, what i can see is their PKK policy has been consistent, didn't matter who came in and who went out, the agenda remained the same. I treat American foreign policy as if a total dictatorship is calling the shots, because a thousand elections wont change its course.

Only thing that can effect it or change it, is the power the opposing side has to bring to the table.

“The argument that the two parties should represent opposed ideals and policies, one, perhaps, of the Right and the other of the Left, is a foolish idea acceptable only to doctrinaire and academic thinkers. Instead, the two parties should be almost identical, so that the American people can “throw the rascals out” at any election without leading to any profound or extensive shifts in policy.”

― Carroll Quigley, Tragedy and Hope: A History of the World in Our Time"

For the most part American elections are just theatre.

In England for example even the common lay person can see how both parties labour and conservative are nearly identical in policy and outlook. Nothing changes except that the agenda persists.

You might find this an interesting read, relevant to what you're saying here: https://graymirror.substack.com/p/narrative-and-reality-in-trump-47

 

[guest12]

It started at early 90s with First Gulf War(gas atack on Iraq Kurds and no fly zone ban ) and became offical with Second Gulf War(hood event).Erdogan's Davos thing was the day we started our active retalation towards them thats all.

 

[Asena_great]

It started at early 90s with First Gulf War(gas atack on Iraq Kurds and no fly zone ban ) and became offical with Second Gulf War(hood event).Erdogan's Davos thing was the day we started our active retalation towards them thats all.

relationship between turkey and Israel was never linear it was up and downs but erdogan push it off the cliff its started in 70s when the turkish leftist kidnap Israel's ambassador btw if you dont know palestine were training all kind of leftist terrorist group around the world including turkish leftist PKK and ASALA as well as islamic groups under the umbrella of Hizb ut-Tahrir with the goal of controlling other countries and use its resources fo Palestinian cause. Israel wanted to negotiated army would have none of it they issue house to house search in istanbul they finded the leftist and the shooting started as resulted the leftist killed the ambassador before being killed. the next escalation was during kenan evren era when americans refuse to give loan to turkey and they give a humiliating loan of 1 million dollar while others like greeks were getting hundreds of millions of dollar both in aide and loans. as resulte kenan evren allowed turgut özel to join the islamic organization and seek money there this give rise to radicals in Israel that turkey is not reliable and they need a new neighbor that is hated by all of its neighbor except israel and that country is kurdistan. however things were not always bad israel help turkey with capture of abdullah öcalan when he was hiding in greek embassy in kenya it was israelis who flash him out allowing general engin alan's commandos to capture him another example is the armor upgrade of m60 patton tanks they were upgraded by Israel its prove its worth as in afrin when PKK destroy leopard tanks army used these upgraded m60s and they were highly successful one more example is also the israel's drone sales to turkey which highly influence drone development in turkey as well as help TSK in fight against PKK finally i can add jewish lobby which help turkey in the US and blocked the armenian genocide in congress.

we people here tend to see US or Israel as enemy as of they are one entity we completely ignore the power brokers and the lobbyist there things could have improved but Erdogan clearly pushed it off the cliff in a way that it will never be repaired again. relationship with west is like a holding an egg if you press it too hard then you will break it if you dont hold it tide enough then it will fall and you will break it again 28 şubat generals were the one who doing it best from one hand they fight pkk they opposed kurdistan but never publicly show any hostility toward west but rather show turkey as friend and ally while behind curtain tried to lobby for turkey they knew if you say something bad publicly then you will have hard time beating the anti turkish lobbyist and anti turkish media in the west now defending turkey is political suicide in west and armenian and greek lobby is taking full advantage of it. Israel turkey relationship ruined all for the sake of islamist 31ing their islamic fantasies the same goes for Egypt-turkey, Syria-turkey and India-turkey relationships


edit : i still remember the islamist "if you dont support palestine then you are a jewish agent " logic during 90s and 2000s were if you even hint that maybe you should work with Israel for interest of turkey you declared traitor / alevi / mason / jew etc, now behold the fruits of that generation bankruptcy a semi-dictatorship, demographic crisis, geopolitical disaster and self hating generation with identity crisis not to mention the German Turkish diaspora that they poisoned in 90s and 2000s not only they wont help us now they are producing Islamic jihadist damaging our image, marrying to arabs lobbying for them while the more secular ones completely abandons turkish identity and beginning assimilating and becoming German agian all for the sake of islamist 31ing their islamic fantasies

 

[Iskander]

The Islamic Republic of Iran "will soon announce the death of its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei," claims Donald Trump's former National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, - Azerbaijani media report

 

[Iskander]

«US President-elect Donald Trump's son-in-law Kared Kushner will play a key role in the new administration's efforts in the Middle East.

CNN reported this with reference to its sources.

The source noted that Kushner is unlikely to hold an official position, but will be a "key figure" in Trump's policy in the region. So, the son-in-law of the new head of the White House has good relations with many leaders of the Middle East.

Earlier, "Financial Times" wrote that Trump's son-in-law will not return to the White House during the new Republican administration. The newspaper noted that Kushner was a senior adviser to the US President during his previous term of office and played a key role in the negotiations of the "Abraham Accords", which established diplomatic relations between a number of Arab states, including Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.

Kushner has said several times that he is not interested in returning to government, but Trump's victory and the current crisis in the Middle East may cause him to change his mind».
(Azerbaijani website "Auna")

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/15/politics/jared-kushner-trump-middle-east-policy/index.html

I have been asked several times, like, how is this possible? Your president's wife is... vice president.
I always answered jokingly, like, it's an accident

But that's not what I'm talking about. They probably remember how Blinken, a year ago, flew to Israel and publicly declared: - "I came here not only as the US Secretary of State, but also as a Jew."

Whose interests will Kushner be looking after?
You know, I have been closely following the F-35 deliveries to Turkey, but I still don't understand where this issue was being decided - in Washington? or in Israel

 

[GoatsMilk]

relationship between turkey and Israel was never linear it was up and downs but erdogan push it off the cliff its started in 70s when the turkish leftist kidnap Israel's ambassador btw if you dont know palestine were training all kind of leftist terrorist group around the world including turkish leftist PKK and ASALA as well as islamic groups under the umbrella of Hizb ut-Tahrir with the goal of controlling other countries and use its resources fo Palestinian cause. Israel wanted to negotiated army would have none of it they issue house to house search in istanbul they finded the leftist and the shooting started as resulted the leftist killed the ambassador before being killed. the next escalation was during kenan evren era when americans refuse to give loan to turkey and they give a humiliating loan of 1 million dollar while others like greeks were getting hundreds of millions of dollar both in aide and loans. as resulte kenan evren allowed turgut özel to join the islamic organization and seek money there this give rise to radicals in Israel that turkey is not reliable and they need a new neighbor that is hated by all of its neighbor except israel and that country is kurdistan. however things were not always bad israel help turkey with capture of abdullah öcalan when he was hiding in greek embassy in kenya it was israelis who flash him out allowing general engin alan's commandos to capture him another example is the armor upgrade of m60 patton tanks they were upgraded by Israel its prove its worth as in afrin when PKK destroy leopard tanks army used these upgraded m60s and they were highly successful one more example is also the israel's drone sales to turkey which highly influence drone development in turkey as well as help TSK in fight against PKK finally i can add jewish lobby which help turkey in the US and blocked the armenian genocide in congress.

we people here tend to see US or Israel as enemy as of they are one entity we completely ignore the power brokers and the lobbyist there things could have improved but Erdogan clearly pushed it off the cliff in a way that it will never be repaired again. relationship with west is like a holding an egg if you press it too hard then you will break it if you dont hold it tide enough then it will fall and you will break it again 28 şubat generals were the one who doing it best from one hand they fight pkk they opposed kurdistan but never publicly show any hostility toward west but rather show turkey as friend and ally while behind curtain tried to lobby for turkey they knew if you say something bad publicly then you will have hard time beating the anti turkish lobbyist and anti turkish media in the west now defending turkey is political suicide in west and armenian and greek lobby is taking full advantage of it. Israel turkey relationship ruined all for the sake of islamist 31ing their islamic fantasies the same goes for Egypt-turkey, Syria-turkey and India-turkey relationships


edit : i still remember the islamist "if you dont support palestine then you are a jewish agent " logic during 90s and 2000s were if you even hint that maybe you should work with Israel for interest of turkey you declared traitor / alevi / mason / jew etc, now behold the fruits of that generation bankruptcy a semi-dictatorship, demographic crisis, geopolitical disaster and self hating generation with identity crisis not to mention the German Turkish diaspora that they poisoned in 90s and 2000s not only they wont help us now they are producing Islamic jihadist damaging our image, marrying to arabs lobbying for them while the more secular ones completely abandons turkish identity and beginning assimilating and becoming German agian all for the sake of islamist 31ing their islamic fantasies

The best thing for zionism is for a Turkish state to make herself an enemy of everyone including isreal. That way you limit the influence and power a nation like Turkiye can wield. If im a zionist i want Turkiye to be openly hostile against me, then i justifiably and openly use all my tools of global influence to screw that enemy. When the Turkish state was balanced the zionists even had to do good things for us at times, now they can just screw us.

If your america, eu, russia, china, india you will love this Turkiye that steps into every trap and creates hostility. Because what used to happen is they all worried that if they shit on Turkiye to hard you force Turkiye into the hands of their rivals and no one wanted that considering the geography and character of the Turks. But when you work to isolate yourself everyone thinks they can screw Turkiye because he's all alone.

The americans/europeans worried about relations with Russia and vice versa. The Chinese didnt want Turks supporting India or making an issue of the Uyghurs. Like wise the Indians didn't want a Turkiye going balls deep in their support of Pakistan. Turkiye had lots of leverage should anyone choose to attack us, but when you piss everyone off you have no leverage and you invite trouble. Obviously this is a basic analysis but the Turkish position should always have been balanced and measured. And truth be told when pursuing geopolitical interests only one bloc at a time could have been challenged, because you needed to use the weight of all your relationships as leverage in your favour. With the aim to make small incremental gains over a hundred to two hundred year period.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

You are overestimating things... Israel is not as all-powerful as you think. A large part of Europe is not absolutely pro-Israeli through and through and the countries that were or are neutral towards Israel are slowly developing a certain aversion, there would be Spain, France, partly even Italy and the Nordic countries are rather negative towards them because they expect a new refugee crisis to Europe and nobody in Europe wants that!
They only have Germany/Austria firmly by the balls, where they can repeatedly crush the balls from Germany/Austria and move them around as puppets.

The Eurofighter deal proves that it's not that simple - the Germans refused for a long time because they were also influenced by Isreal.
The British, who don't really give a shit about the Israelis, don't care what happens in the Gaza war.

You just don't know the old Turkey, from the 70s to the late 90s. It was a supplicant and was also perceived as such in Europe, the USA and Asia.

Now it is blackmailing these countries and playing them off against each other.
The Swedes were totally pro-left with terrorist organizations like the PKK/YPG, if a country like Turkey pushes through a constitutional amendment in the Swedish parliament against terrorist organizations then that is power and influence we have gained by blackmailing them to allow joining to the NATO after constitutional amendment!
If a country like Germany/France tries several times in their plans to force a change of government in Turkey by influencing public opinion through media houses in Turkey that are paid by them or certain people like Mr. Kavala who then also make politics are banned and their media houses are banned. Erdogan is doing what he wants or have you seen that Erdogan has somehow been stopped from doing what he wants? They are seething with rage because he can fuck them whenever he wants and they can't do anything.

They tried to attack the country via the economy/currency with rating agencies, but that's not going according to plan either. Turkey is still there and so is Erdogan.

The worst thing that could have happened was that the Turkish arms industry developed for 15-20 years unnoticed by the media and governments abroad with all their think tanks.
The Europeans in particular, including Germany/France and Greece, went into a state of shock, including Israel/USA. They did not expect Turkey to have created an entire industry with a stable supply chain out of nothing, at least not on such a large scale.
They thought an embargo and a few sanctions would get them back on track for their sphere of influence, but that wasn't the case.

 

[Tabmachine]

The best thing for zionism is for a Turkish state to make herself an enemy of everyone including isreal. That way you limit the influence and power a nation like Turkiye can wield. If im a zionist i want Turkiye to be openly hostile against me, then i justifiably and openly use all my tools of global influence to screw that enemy. When the Turkish state was balanced the zionists even had to do good things for us at times, now they can just screw us.

If your america, eu, russia, china, india you will love this Turkiye that steps into every trap and creates hostility. Because what used to happen is they all worried that if they shit on Turkiye to hard you force Turkiye into the hands of their rivals and no one wanted that considering the geography and character of the Turks. But when you work to isolate yourself everyone thinks they can screw Turkiye because he's all alone.

The americans/europeans worried about relations with Russia and vice versa. The Chinese didnt want Turks supporting India or making an issue of the Uyghurs. Like wise the Indians didn't want a Turkiye going balls deep in their support of Pakistan. Turkiye had lots of leverage should anyone choose to attack us, but when you piss everyone off you have no leverage and you invite trouble. Obviously this is a basic analysis but the Turkish position should always have been balanced and measured. And truth be told when pursuing geopolitical interests only one bloc at a time could have been challenged, because you needed to use the weight of all your relationships as leverage in your favour. With the aim to make small incremental gains over a hundred to two hundred year period.

Also all of the religious optics and posturing in international communications (since Davutoglu i guess?). The Arabs are not ready to be allies, let alone reliable allies, either in their civil society or in their halls of power, so that approach was basically like hitching your wagon to a horse without legs.

Nothing wrong with being religious personally, or culturally imo, but its gotta stay out of the foreign policy realm. (as well not be used for demagoguery in election cycles but that is another conversation)

I think Deng Xiaopeng's foreign policy maxim, really speaks to the point your making: "Hide your strength, bide your time".

 

[selim]

You are overestimating things... Israel is not as all-powerful as you think. A large part of Europe is not absolutely pro-Israeli through and through and the countries that were or are neutral towards Israel are slowly developing a certain aversion, there would be Spain, France, partly even Italy and the Nordic countries are rather negative towards them because they expect a new refugee crisis to Europe and nobody in Europe wants that!
They only have Germany/Austria firmly by the balls, where they can repeatedly crush the balls from Germany/Austria and move them around as puppets.

The Eurofighter deal proves that it's not that simple - the Germans refused for a long time because they were also influenced by Isreal.
The British, who don't really give a shit about the Israelis, don't care what happens in the Gaza war.

You just don't know the old Turkey, from the 70s to the late 90s. It was a supplicant and was also perceived as such in Europe, the USA and Asia.

Now it is blackmailing these countries and playing them off against each other.
The Swedes were totally pro-left with terrorist organizations like the PKK/YPG, if a country like Turkey pushes through a constitutional amendment in the Swedish parliament against terrorist organizations then that is power and influence we have gained by blackmailing them to allow joining to the NATO after constitutional amendment!
If a country like Germany/France tries several times in their plans to force a change of government in Turkey by influencing public opinion through media houses in Turkey that are paid by them or certain people like Mr. Kavala who then also make politics are banned and their media houses are banned. Erdogan is doing what he wants or have you seen that Erdogan has somehow been stopped from doing what he wants? They are seething with rage because he can fuck them whenever he wants and they can't do anything.

They tried to attack the country via the economy/currency with rating agencies, but that's not going according to plan either. Turkey is still there and so is Erdogan.

The worst thing that could have happened was that the Turkish arms industry developed for 15-20 years unnoticed by the media and governments abroad with all their think tanks.
The Europeans in particular, including Germany/France and Greece, went into a state of shock, including Israel/USA. They did not expect Turkey to have created an entire industry with a stable supply chain out of nothing, at least not on such a large scale.
They thought an embargo and a few sanctions would get them back on track for their sphere of influence, but that wasn't the case.

After Turkey rejected participation in 2003 Iraq invasion there were many ugly events like Hood incident which you can not explain with "Erdogan is Islamist he hates Israel".
Last 20 years USA did everything in Middle East without considering any Turkish interests, when in doubt they convincingly chose anti-Turkish decisions like leaving Manbitch to Russia.
There's this faction who believes once Turkey shuts up, stays inside its own borders, and uses MIT like in the old days to spy on your mother / sister whether they're carrying headscraf or not instead of MIT doing outside operation, Turkey will prosper and be left alone.
No.
Why did they not accept Turkey into EU althouh Turkey's EU application predatesd Erdogan's rise to power by decades.
USA granted countries like Jordan free-trade agreement, why not grant it to Turkey? Allthough Turkey hosted USA nuclear weapons, U2s etc, and USA bombing almost every trading partner of Turkey ?

 

[selim]

Turkey needs strong partners and allies in Muslim world.
Unfortunately Arab world is completely embedded into US imperial structure.
If Turkey were in war with Israel today countries like UAE, Saudi would be on opposite side of Turkey scheming, planning, plotting to hit Turkish economy.
Saudi, UAE could stop whole Israel madness in Mid-East by embargoing oil-exports to West, but they don't do it.
Monarchy, Regime survival is priority for them - Who can save their Monarchies and deploy let's say 50.000 soldiers when people rise-up ? --> USA.
That's the only reason they're in bed with Israel given Jewish control of US congress.
I don't accuse them of being convinced Israel lovers, they simply know only USA could save their regimes.

I believe someday people of this region will rise-up, probaly statring from Egypt.
UAE is totally artificial country of about 10 million with only 1 million true Emiratis, rest are basically slave-labors.
Once Saudi or Egypt falls cards will be shuffled anew.
MBS in Saudi maybe rules S.Arabia, but these are tribal societies. MBS' father still lives and is considered unchallenged King (tribal leader), we'll see if Saudi Arabian society will accept MBS's NEOM, Jew-loving aspirations once actual King dies.

 

[selim]

So, on the one hand we have Imperialists spending trilliions of $ on war since 9/11.
Clearly trying to change borders of Iraq, Syria and likely Iran.
Who comes next if they suceed ? Turkey ! Independed of Erdogan ruling Turkey or not !
They're trying to create some kind of PKK/YPF/SDF - Kurdish state with access to Mediteranean or at least access to Israel via Syria land-bridge to Israel.
In that area of operation they placed USA GI Jonnys as human shields, personal bodyguards to people like Mazlum Abdi and also shot down Turkish UAVs.
This situation is unbearble, either we can compromise with Trump or US-Turkish relations will become very hostile-