India HAL Tejas Program

[Spitfire9]

Tejas mk1a was always planned to be delivered from 2024 onwards. From the rate of 16 aircraft at the beginning and 24 after some time. HAL has already completed the delivery of mark 1 aircraft and naval LCA is a dead project that is now being used as a stepping stone for TEDBF i believe. The delay on tejas mk2 aircraft has been due to the engine. But alas shitting on the indian MIC which produces Nuke subs, carriers and BMD is a worthwhile for some "indians" and that then get magnified by everyone

The comment I cited was about production of fighter aircraft. My comment was about fighter aircraft:

'India cannot yet rely on the Indian MIC to supply the IAF with the fighters it needs.'

I don't think that Tejas Mk2 delay is due to the engine. India ordered 99 F414 engines for Tejas Mk2 over 10 years ago.

'India has completed a deal for 99 General Electric F414 engines, the powerplant for the planned Hindustan Aeronautics Tejas Mk II Light Combat Aircraft.

In a call with Flightglobal, an industry source close to the 99 engine deal confirmed that it has been completed. Indian media reports peg the value of the deal at Indian rupees (Rs) 30 billion ($560 million).'

India to obtain 99 GE F414 engines for Tejas Mk II

India has completed a deal for 99 General Electric F414 engines, the powerplant for the planned Hindustan Aeronautics Tejas Mk II Light Combat Aircraft.In...

www.flightglobal.com

Any delay due to a shortage of F414 engines is India's doing - albeit, perhaps not HAL's.

 

[KamBhakth]

I cite a post I read on an Indian forum which questions India's ability to produce Indian fighters:

'in FY 23-24 it was expected that HAL will produce 11 Lca aircraft. 1 NLCA, 7 LCA twin seaters, 1Lca mk 2, 2 LCA MKIA as their annual capability is allegedly 16 aircraft per annum

actual production probability is only 3. That is 1NLCA and 2 trainers. Thereafter targets will be pushed back to FY 24-25.

All this export possibility nonsense is just to get foreign trips at the expense of tax payers and there is no prospect of any achievement. HAL has no capability to even meet the domestic demand for which orders have already been placed at least next five years. in spite of lot of propaganda, it seems that assembly line for 16 aircraft is not complete and the production capability is still only eight aircraft per annum. Even this capability is unlikely to be achieved at least in FY 23,24. Therefore the capability of 8 aircraft will be achieved only in 24,25, while 16 aircraft per annum is a distant dream.'

While HAL is contracted to produce 83 Tejas Mk1A (plus another 97 are expected to be ordered), does India not need to order ASAP sufficient Rafale to equip another 2-4 squadrons? It is rumoured on Indian site idrw that Tejas Mk2 is subject to a further, multi-year delay.

The way things have gone, the way things are going shows that India cannot yet rely on the Indian MIC to supply the IAF with the fighters it needs. Is anything being done to change things?

HAL to deliver first Light Combat Aircraft Tejas Mk-1A in March 2024

The government had placed an order to procure 83 LCA Tejas Mk-1A aircraft for the Indian Air Force worth around Rs 47,000 crore to HAL.

newsable.asianetnews.com

Nov. 21 article that states that 1A deliveries will start in March 24.

 

[Spitfire9]

HAL to deliver first Light Combat Aircraft Tejas Mk-1A in March 2024

The government had placed an order to procure 83 LCA Tejas Mk-1A aircraft for the Indian Air Force worth around Rs 47,000 crore to HAL.

newsable.asianetnews.com

Nov. 21 article that states that 1A deliveries will start in March 24.

I expect HAL will deliver 2 x Mk1A before the end of 23-24 financial year, as contracted. The question mark is over later deliveries - can HAL raise production to 16 a year? The opening of the extra FAL bringing capacity up to 16 a year was announced early 2021.

PS IIRC the last of 32 Tejas Mk1 ordered was delivered about March 2019. 8 trainers were outstanding. Then another 10 trainers + 73 Mk1A fighters were ordered early 2021. How many trainer deliveries have there been since April 2019?

 

[Marlii]

The comment I cited was about production of fighter aircraft. My comment was about fighter aircraft:

'India cannot yet rely on the Indian MIC to supply the IAF with the fighters it needs.'

I don't think that Tejas Mk2 delay is due to the engine. India ordered 99 F414 engines for Tejas Mk2 over 10 years ago.

'India has completed a deal for 99 General Electric F414 engines, the powerplant for the planned Hindustan Aeronautics Tejas Mk II Light Combat Aircraft.

In a call with Flightglobal, an industry source close to the 99 engine deal confirmed that it has been completed. Indian media reports peg the value of the deal at Indian rupees (Rs) 30 billion ($560 million).'

India to obtain 99 GE F414 engines for Tejas Mk II

India has completed a deal for 99 General Electric F414 engines, the powerplant for the planned Hindustan Aeronautics Tejas Mk II Light Combat Aircraft.In...

www.flightglobal.com

Any delay due to a shortage of F414 engines is India's doing - albeit, perhaps not HAL's.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1735918454392393819

 

[Spitfire9]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1735918454392393819

I am aware of that.

Sorry, I don't have the time to check but to my best recollection 24 months ago the timeline given for Mk2 rollout was end 2022. Near that time it was rescheduled to end 2023. I believe it was then rescheduled to end 2024. I don't put all the responsibility on HAL for delays. Would that Indian project management of military aviation was more like the project management seen in Turkiye! Both countries started looking into producing a 5G aircraft at about the same time. A dozen or so years later the Turkish one is about to fly. The Indian one has not even been given the go ahead for prototype production.

 

[Marlii]

I am aware of that.

Sorry, I don't have the time to check but to my best recollection 24 months ago the timeline given for Mk2 rollout was end 2022. Near that time it was rescheduled to end 2023. I believe it was then rescheduled to end 2024. I don't put all the responsibility on HAL for delays. Would that Indian project management of military aviation was more like the project management seen in Turkiye! Both countries started looking into producing a 5G aircraft at about the same time. A dozen or so years later the Turkish one is about to fly. The Indian one has not even been given the go ahead for prototype production.

Well in the end they are stretched thin with the sheer amount of projects that are being undertaken tejas mk1a, tejas mk2,TEDBF, AMCA,HLFT 42
Concurrently along with massive projects like HAL CATS program with large number of components and complexity.India doesnt have the luxury of giving a program like AMCA the priority it needed.

 

[Nilgiri]

I cite a post I read on an Indian forum which questions India's ability to produce Indian fighters:

'in FY 23-24 it was expected that HAL will produce 11 Lca aircraft. 1 NLCA, 7 LCA twin seaters, 1Lca mk 2, 2 LCA MKIA as their annual capability is allegedly 16 aircraft per annum

actual production probability is only 3. That is 1NLCA and 2 trainers. Thereafter targets will be pushed back to FY 24-25.

All this export possibility nonsense is just to get foreign trips at the expense of tax payers and there is no prospect of any achievement. HAL has no capability to even meet the domestic demand for which orders have already been placed at least next five years. in spite of lot of propaganda, it seems that assembly line for 16 aircraft is not complete and the production capability is still only eight aircraft per annum. Even this capability is unlikely to be achieved at least in FY 23,24. Therefore the capability of 8 aircraft will be achieved only in 24,25, while 16 aircraft per annum is a distant dream.'

While HAL is contracted to produce 83 Tejas Mk1A (plus another 97 are expected to be ordered), does India not need to order ASAP sufficient Rafale to equip another 2-4 squadrons? It is rumoured on Indian site idrw that Tejas Mk2 is subject to a further, multi-year delay.

The way things have gone, the way things are going shows that India cannot yet rely on the Indian MIC to supply the IAF with the fighters it needs. Is anything being done to change things?

The fact whomever this is is talking about producing "1 lca mk2" in the current fiscal makes his information dubious.

The mk2 isnt going to be produced till 2028 last I heard....with the first prototype expected around 2025 and about 3 years of LSP.

mk1 had one production line of about 8 per year originally, and then another opened making it 16 per year.

8 twin seat trainers (1st one delivered) and a follow on order of 10 twin seat trainers are ongoing.

January 2019, mk1 FOC production run commenced:

HAL gets nod to produce weaponised version of LCA Tejas

The Centre for Military Airworthiness and Certification has given nod to start manufacturing Tejas Mk1.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Maybe this guy is conflating the original order date(s) (and delays till production, where really only the LSP's were being produced and tested) with the actual IOC/FOC production run to come up with the low number of 3/year.

Soon a third will be opened and thus 3 production lines are ongoing for Mk1A (73 ordered initially and follow on order of 97 announced recently):

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/hal-now-has-capacity-to-make-24-tejas-jets-a-year-495586

First delivery (from the existing 2 production lines) is expected come February/March 2024 and the current order production of mk1A is expected to last from 2024 - 2028, 5 years.

The 3rd production line is expected to come online late 2024:

Known for wine, Nashik is the next aircraft manufacturing hub as HAL spreads wings

HAL has a capacity to build 16 LCA Mk-1As every year in Bengaluru, and the Nashik line will help the firm ramp up production to a total of 24 jets.

www.hindustantimes.com

 

[OverTheHorizon]

I expect HAL will deliver 2 x Mk1A before the end of 23-24 financial year, as contracted. The question mark is over later deliveries - can HAL raise production to 16 a year? The opening of the extra FAL bringing capacity up to 16 a year was announced early 2021.

PS IIRC the last of 32 Tejas Mk1 ordered was delivered about March 2019. 8 trainers were outstanding. Then another 10 trainers + 73 Mk1A fighters were ordered early 2021. How many trainer deliveries have there been since April 2019?

HAL would really need to outsource production to privat-public joint companies. HAL cannot run a good production setup. They need to work on designing and just making the prototypes. They should not be doing mass production.

 

[KamBhakth]

I expect HAL will deliver 2 x Mk1A before the end of 23-24 financial year, as contracted. The question mark is over later deliveries - can HAL raise production to 16 a year? The opening of the extra FAL bringing capacity up to 16 a year was announced early 2021.

PS IIRC the last of 32 Tejas Mk1 ordered was delivered about March 2019. 8 trainers were outstanding. Then another 10 trainers + 73 Mk1A fighters were ordered early 2021. How many trainer deliveries have there been since April 2019?

I don't think HAL is to blame for any delays in trainers. I don't think it was given the go ahead to start production of trainers till recently.

There are definitely massive delays in the program but most of them are not due to HAL. that could of course be because HAL has not been given a lot to do so far. It's production capacity will be tested now till the end of he decade.

 

[Spitfire9]

HAL would really need to outsource production to privat-public joint companies. HAL cannot run a good production setup. They need to work on designing and just making the prototypes. They should not be doing mass production.

Apologies - I got this badly wrong if 16 Tejas Mk1 were delivered by April 2019 and 16 more have been delivered since then.

Nevertheless I have the impression that HAL is a very inefficient producer and that far more productive companies have been denied the chance to compete with it.

 

[Nilgiri]

HAL would really need to outsource production to privat-public joint companies. HAL cannot run a good production setup. They need to work on designing and just making the prototypes. They should not be doing mass production.

You will have to explain exactly what HAL is getting wrong in the assembly. The product is already a public-private effort given HAL increasingly contracts out what it can component-wise to private players who have invested in those capacities and provide a cost advantage there (or sometimes were always the OEM supplier from the get go).

Private companies aren't some magic wand as a final assembler for this production rate being talked about (in the military domain at this current ramp and scale for this field in India), they will have the same production problems given the testing, funding and scale of new technologies being invested in, especially those that are not HAL related (but more ADA, IAF and south block related).

i.e you will have to point out what a private company will do assembly wise thats different to HAL regarding the capital equipment and HR that HAL employs. Otherwise cost/time is going to be overall the same.

Private companies only really get incentive to invest (for assembly) when the larger scale of the industry (in this case aviation and aerospace) develops on the civilian and commercial side since these are not govt contract reliant. That is still nascent stage in India given the capital intensity involved along with the HR pool that still needs to be grown and refined....amongst all the other various competing needs in the economy.

 

[Nilgiri]

Nevertheless I have the impression that HAL is a very inefficient producer and that far more productive companies have been denied the chance to compete with it.

The mk1A deliveries in 2024 and 2025 will finally give us a better verdict on this. Till now the raw order given and getting ducks in a line have stymied much in the ramp that took shape with the series production of mk1 and trainer variant....after the LSP prolonged delays in testing and certification feedback.

 

[Spitfire9]

The article is about Tejas Mk2, urging the IAF to 'keep faith' with it. 10 years ago I foresaw good international sales prospects for the Mk2 but since then it has been subject to redesign and many delays (delivery will be 10+ years later than first planned) and will likely not see any deliveries before the early 2030's.

In my experience Indian media and online media are not very reliable in what they write/say about Indian fighters, with a tendency to over optimism about Indian types such as Tejas. In the article it mentions that 'some 16 countries have already shown interest in the Mk2, according to HAL and DRDO.' Again, I think that is over optimistic in the sense that their interest may not be of any magnitude. All countries take an interest in what is available or will be available that they might conceivably consider procuring.

Does a 4G lightish fighter stand much chance of being of interest to air forces mid-2030's onwards? The Mk2 being so late, I imagine that India will need to import or start licence production of 100 or more light-medium/medium weight MRCA in the next few years to cover for the absence of Mk2.

To me 100 more Tejas Mk1A for IAF (accepted as being necessary) plus (probably) 100 MRCA inevitably reduces the number of Mk2 that would be ordered. Would it not be better to scrap Mk2? I don't see much chance of any country other than India wanting to buy it. To me it would make more sense to spend the development funds on AMCA instead. That might be of real interest to some countries.

https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/iaf-must-keep-faith-with-tejas-mk-2-1195688.html

 

[Nilgiri]

The article is about Tejas Mk2, urging the IAF to 'keep faith' with it. 10 years ago I foresaw good international sales prospects for the Mk2 but since then it has been subject to redesign and many delays (delivery will be 10+ years later than first planned) and will likely not see any deliveries before the early 2030's.

In my experience Indian media and online media are not very reliable in what they write/say about Indian fighters, with a tendency to over optimism about Indian types such as Tejas. In the article it mentions that 'some 16 countries have already shown interest in the Mk2, according to HAL and DRDO.' Again, I think that is over optimistic in the sense that their interest may not be of any magnitude. All countries take an interest in what is available or will be available that they might conceivably consider procuring.

Does a 4G lightish fighter stand much chance of being of interest to air forces mid-2030's onwards? The Mk2 being so late, I imagine that India will need to import or start licence production of 100 or more light-medium/medium weight MRCA in the next few years to cover for the absence of Mk2.

To me 100 more Tejas Mk1A for IAF (accepted as being necessary) plus (probably) 100 MRCA inevitably reduces the number of Mk2 that would be ordered. Would it not be better to scrap Mk2? I don't see much chance of any country other than India wanting to buy it. To me it would make more sense to spend the development funds on AMCA instead. That might be of real interest to some countries.

https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/iaf-must-keep-faith-with-tejas-mk-2-1195688.html

Can look up how long the latest blocks of the F-15, F-16, Rafale (and chinese and russian equivalents) et al. are expected to remain in service (2040, 2050).

There is a credible role for 4.5 gen aicraft in the bulk force structure below the 5th, 6th gen apex/spearheads for quite some time to come....especially if designed with LRUs and better modularity for component advances.

The specific hangups in AMCA will not be solved by throwing more money and people at it, these are matters of premium RnD, so the production and squadron needs have to be 4.5 in the interim (be it tejas or rafale additions).

If there is a pressing 5th generation void that grows and cannot be addressed by an interim import from a friendly country....the doctrine of war will be wargamed and ramped up a tier or two suitably to take out those enemy assets since they are constrained to a few airbases.

Could care less about the export talk. That is for any surplus capacity down the road to begin with, which will take quite some time given domestic needs first. India earns far more export dollars investing in other parts of the economy right now.

 

[Spitfire9]

Can look up how long the latest blocks of the F-15, F-16, Rafale (and chinese and russian equivalents) et al. are expected to remain in service (2040, 2050).

There is a credible role for 4.5 gen aicraft in the bulk force structure below the 5th, 6th gen apex/spearheads for quite some time to come....especially if designed with LRUs and better modularity for component advances.

The specific hangups in AMCA will not be solved by throwing more money and people at it, these are matters of premium RnD, so the production and squadron needs have to be 4.5 in the interim (be it tejas or rafale additions).

If there is a pressing 5th generation void that grows and cannot be addressed by an interim import from a friendly country....the doctrine of war will be wargamed and ramped up a tier or two suitably to take out those enemy assets since they are constrained to a few airbases.

Could care less about the export talk. That is for any surplus capacity down the road to begin with, which will take quite some time given domestic needs first. India earns far more export dollars investing in other parts of the economy right now.

I think you view the role of the Indian military aviation industry as being principally to supply the IAD with Indian kit. I see India as one of three countries with the chance of growing their industries into important suppliers to a world market. If that is not a chance India wants to try to take, so be it. I think it will mean Indian industry being less - not more - able to supply its own air force with suitable equipment in a suitable timeframe.

 

[Nilgiri]

I think you view the role of the Indian military aviation industry as being principally to supply the IAD with Indian kit. I see India as one of three countries with the chance of growing their industries into important suppliers to a world market. If that is not a chance India wants to try to take, so be it. I think it will mean Indian industry being less - not more - able to supply its own air force with suitable equipment in a suitable timeframe.

I don't understand what you mean. Defence goals/needs are country/nation first. Others later as and when you develop the wherewithal and raw capacities.

Its why for example though the Indian navy produces some very good large warships (and the IN has been well ahead on its capacity development compared to IA and IAF), it wont be exporting them in large numbers as there are domestic needs to fill first and saturate to then have the proper basis to then export.

Where surpluses to these needs have already accrued (OPV, corvette sized ships), these gain traction for marketing and export (like India has also achieved in some missiles and radars too). In the end it boils down to production berths at shipyards, design agencies involved, trained labour at hand and so on and how these are developed and grown.

So it doesn't need "export" first approach at all to become a "supplier" in some be all end all way. There is an investment feedback loop first, that involves friendly defence partners that are willing to export stuff to you that they are ahead on, that you learn from and grow own capacity on, to augment what you could do already.

This builds up a portfolio to export over time without impacting say a frigate that is now in service half the world away from you, compared to in your own navy when it needs it...and the 500 mil extra you have in forex meaning zilch in the heat of war.

In the end it is all commensurate to surpluses developed by countries (be it defence items or otherwise). You then market those surpluses and adequately deliver them and gain rapport/reputation/reliability and this feedback over time.

It is counterproductive to put cart before the donkey and export prematurely at any cost when this would impact your own core needs (the very reason for a govt to establish its role w.r.t the country's defence and existence).

I mean would any sane country export grain while there's a famine? No, it has to import instead. If its exporting, then some level of govt insanity has taken root to be able to compel the wrong direction....like with Mao's China during the great leap forward famine.

 

[Spitfire9]

I mean would any sane country export grain while there's a famine? No, it has to import instead. If its exporting, then some level of govt insanity has taken root to be able to compel the wrong direction....like with Mao's China during the great leap forward famine.

Would any sane country plan and manage its grain producing sector such that it results in famine and has to import grain?

 

[Marlii]

Would any sane country plan and manage its grain producing sector such that it results in famine and has to import grain?

Ok bro we suck at making fighter aircraft cant do much explaining to a guy who just goes circles and circles

 

[Nilgiri]

Would any sane country plan and manage its grain producing sector such that it results in famine and has to import grain?

Not deliberately if they are sane+competent.

Different sectors have different starting points and circumstances.

India's basic food production was in state of shambles at independence. It was then a matter of investing and improving it.

Once its ship shape enough, you can think about exports then.

High end defence equipment follows this too (though at different end of priority chain given investment intensity and the immediate return to basic needs of the populace). You cannot be exporting things if you are deficit in them yourself while you sort this all out.

Things you have little demand for (yet) yourself, but have high demand outside the country make up things like the export "oriented" sectors. But the key part is low demand internally, not the case with India in defence industry which is making gear shifts largely to addressing local production for what it has imported and imports still (i.e there is a large demand that costs forex, fiscal budget +geopolitical resources).

 

[Nilgiri]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1742829201756213361