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crixus

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ndia now has forex reserves of over $590 billion, the highest ever, up by $119 billion over the previous year, while the external debt is $554 billion, making the country a "net creditor", Minister of State for Finance Anurag Singh Thakur said here on Saturday.

Speaking to media persons he said the country is witnessing a 'V' shaped recovery post Covid-19 pandemic, which is evident by the GST collection during the past four months.


"If you see Indias forex reserves, India has forex reserves more than $590 billion, which is the highest ever. And it is up by $119 billion from the previous year. And if you look at the external debt, it is only $554 billion. So considering the forex reserves, India is now a net creditor," the minister said.

He said the GST collections indicate that the economy is in recovery as the Government has taken the right steps saving lives and the economy as well.

The Minister said India received the highest Foreign Direct Investments even during Covid-19 times due to "decisive leadership."

"India is standing back on its feet. The economy is witnessing a V shaped recovery. And in the month of January the total collection was close to Rs 1.20 trillion", he told reporters in a press conference.

On the recent Union Budget, Thakur said that except the opposition parties, all sections of people had appreciated it.

Thakur said the budget estimates for the current fiscal was Rs 30.42 trillion, while it was increased by over Rs four trillion to Rs 34.50 trillion for the next fiscal.

He hoped that India would become a USD five trillion economy in the next four or five years.

Describing the budget as a "transparent one", the minister explained the salient features of it.

On the disinvestment proposal of Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL) which owns steel plant in Visakhapatnam, Thakur said the Centre will decide on divesting stakes of Public Sector Enterprises from time to time, based on NITI Aayogs recommendations.

He said many companies have grown post-disinvestment and the Centre will try to talk to the RINL stakeholders.
 

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"If you see Indias forex reserves, India has forex reserves more than $590 billion, which is the highest ever. And it is up by $119 billion from the previous year. And if you look at the external debt, it is only $554 billion. So considering the forex reserves, India is now a net creditor," the minister said.

Like I guess if you really want to brag about it. But this is corona effect driven. I really wouldn't call it a "net creditor" till the difference between the two is lot larger (given overlap of lot of instruments) and also structurally sustained over many more years (which it wont be as soon as Indian economy returns to a more normal operation mode).
 

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Good to see power consumption is returning to normal and growing at brisk pace....it is underlying indicator that economic activity is coming back to shape:

 

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Good to see:

NIBRI.jpg
 

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A fairly good read:


(Graphics etc available at link)

=========================================

The Shadow of England in India’s Farm Protests​

Faster urbanization and quicker economic growth await. But, first, New Delhi has to make agricultural reforms palatable to farmers.

By David Fickling and Andy Mukherjee
February 10, 2021, 6:11 PM EST

Where is it cheaper to buy rice? At a village market in India, a country where 377 million people live below the poverty line? Or on the trading screens of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange?



Shockingly, it’s often the latter. Rough rice futures on the CME averaged $12.63 per hundredweight since the start of September and traded as low as $11.85, equivalent to about $233 a metric ton. Meanwhile, the minimum support price at which India’s government buys unmilled rice from farmers has been fixed at 1,868 rupees per quintal in the same marketing year, or $254 a ton at average exchange rates.



The gap is even wider for wheat, whose minimum support price has averaged a 25% premium to soft winter wheat futures in Chicago in the current marketing year.


That disparity stems from distortions. Jawaharlal Nehru, the first prime minister of post-colonial India, repurposed Soviet state planning for a democratic setup, and from 1956 invested heavily in sectors that made machines to produce industrial goods. By the mid-1960s, though, it became apparent to Nehru’s successors that a shortage of basic consumption items — mostly farm output — was getting in the way of hiring and paying India’s abundant labor. That’s when minimum support prices came into being, as a way to coax farmers to feed a rapidly growing population.

But in a poor country, high prices assured to growers can’t be passed on to consumers. When both are subsidized, the cost can be as high as 4.2 trillion rupees ($58 billion) in a pandemic year — and even half of that otherwise. Also, nine out of 10 farmers who own less than five acres have been largely left behind by post-1990s reforms that have widened the productivity gap of non-farm labor over agricultural workers to 5.5 times, among the highest in the world.

More than three-fifths of the 1.3 billion population is stuck on the farm, and kept there with a $11 billion fertilizer subsidy; $9.5 billion in unmetered electric power; about $4 billion annual expenditure on periodic loan waivers; and of late an $80-a-year income supplement, which adds up to $9 billion. For the landless, there’s a rural job guarantee, which cost $15 billion after migrant workers lost their urban jobs to the Covid-19 lockdown and returned to their village homes.
Viewed in this context, protests against new agricultural laws by farmers amassed at New Delhi’s borders are the long overdue birth pangs of a more urbanized nation. The reforms that are making farmers anxious have been deliberated since the early 1990s. When it comes to making them palatable, the missing ingredient even now is skilled midwifery: Farmers need to be able to trust both the intent and execution capacity of political leaders to fashion a new deal with taxpayers and consumers. It’s not enough to say that giving a free rein to markets will automatically make India’s farmers productive and prosperous. Someone has to explain what new organizational arrangements will replace the extensive state support that exists today.

A new bargain with farmers is needed for India to have a shot at reclaiming past glory. In 1750, the Mughal Empire accounted for about a quarter of the world’s industrial output, and cotton textiles from Bengal and Kerala were traded worldwide.

Imperialism and the British industrial revolution devastated that trade. Britain’s higher wages for textile workers forced its mills to adopt inventions such as the spinning jenny and flying shuttle to compete with Indian cloth. Protected by tariffs on Indian imports, the productivity of these technologies quickly became so great that the Lancashire textile industry was able to reverse the inherent disadvantages of more expensive labor and raw materials. Labor costs per unit went from more than double those in India in 1770 to less than a third in 1820, impoverishing India, which was reduced to being a supplier of commodity cotton to its colonial overlords.

It’s unlikely any of this would have happened had it not been for the rapid and early decline of England’s rural workforce. By the mid-18th century, agricultural employment already accounted for not much more than a third of the total. As a result, the country hit its Lewis turning point — the moment when excess rural labor supply is soaked up, resulting in wage rises that eventually improve the productivity of both urban and rural businesses — earlier than anywhere else on the planet.

That moment is finally coming near in India, too. As a share of total jobs, farming is about to drop below the 40% levels at which so many other countries saw growth take off. That feeds into the food price debate. A decade ago, when most Indians worked in agriculture and were more likely to be sellers than buyers of food products, it made sense for the government to prop up prices in what’s known as mandi markets, and seek to manage the cost of urban living with consumer subsidies. A kilo of rice, which has an economic cost of 37 rupees to the taxpayer, is sold to two-thirds of the population for 3 rupees.

It’s an unsustainable equilibrium. Instead of overemphasizing heavy industries like steel-making in the 1950s, if India had adopted an indigenous model that had advocated creating surpluses in so-called wage goods — rice, tea, everyday cotton clothing, matchsticks and so on — those extra earnings of rural and semi-rural households could have spread incomes more widely and laid a more solid basis for industrialization and urbanization. The $100 billion-plus being spent annually on subsidies and income support could have been redirected to infrastructure, services like healthcare and education, and perhaps a basic minimum income for all.

The mandi system has certainly benefited a class of farm workers, especially in the northern grain basket states of Punjab and Haryana. In many ways, those states have the most sophisticated farming industries in all of India, with the highest share of land under irrigation, the highest incomes from crops, and some of the lowest levels of rural poverty.

But paying each of Punjab’s 1 million farmers $1,600 a year in subsidized fertilizer and free power to pump groundwater is a drag on the economy and the ecology. In farm productivity, the states that have diversified beyond rice and wheat — the only two commodities for which minimum support prices really matter — are far ahead. Punjab, meanwhile, is sitting on depleted aquifers and environmentally unsustainable cropping patterns. Hazardous pollution in northern India is hurting the urban poor.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has tried to introduce reforms by stealth, saying that the mandi or the minimum support prices aren’t going anywhere. Farmers, he says, will have more choices of private buyers; they will earn better prices. However, Punjab’s cultivators can intuitively guess that their 1960s bargain with the state is ending. The powerful arhtiyas, or aggregators who bring crops to the mandi, know that their commissions would wither away.

That, too, has its parallel in the history of the industrial revolution. Britain’s landed gentry sought to protect its wealth and prerogatives by demanding high tariffs and bans on grain imports, resulting in the Corn Laws imposed from 1815 to 1846. Those laws got repealed only after manufacturing-led urban interest groups became powerful in their own right, helping tilt the balance.

In India, a pushback to farm reforms was expected because of the manner in which the laws were rushed through parliament. Modi supporters are making the unrest worse by branding Punjab farmers as Sikh secessionists. The West, which has always complained about Indian farm subsidies at the World Trade Organization, can’t but be supportive of pro-market reforms. But cutting off internet access at protest sites has ignited a rebuke from the U.S. State Department. Pop star Rihanna and climate activist Greta Thunberg have internationalized the agitation. Delhi has been barricaded with barbed wires. The space for a compromise is shrinking, and that’s a shame.

A year before his death in 1964, Nehru was getting tired of relying on food aid from America that was given without much grace, and received without much gratitude. “If we fail in agriculture,” he said, “it does not matter what else we achieve — how many plants we put up — our economic development will not be complete.” That’s true even today. Although the two leaders couldn’t be more dissimilar, if Modi can manage the crisis honestly, modern India may finally grasp the industrializing vision of Nehru.
 

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Merchandise exports rose 6.2% in January from a year before, the highest since March 2019, and 0.1% higher than December, showed the data released by the commerce ministry on Monday. It also beats the ministry’s preliminary estimate of a 5.4% increase in exports for January, signalling a nascent recovery following the Covid-related disruptions.

Imports, too, recorded a second successive month of growth (2% year-on-year) in January but the pace of rise slowed from 7.6% in December 2020. Trade deficit narrowed to $14.54 billion in January from $15.44 billion in the previous month.

(More at link)
 

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2021 gets off to a good start​

by Mahesh Vyas


In January 2021 India recorded a significant fall in the unemployment rate and an equally impressive increase in the employment rate. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 per cent from 9.1 per cent in December 2020 and the employment rate rose to 37.9 per cent from 36.9 per cent. These are big positive changes.

The number of people employed increased from 388.8 million in December 2020 to 400.7 million in January 2021. This is a big increase. Nearly 12 million additional people found employment during January. This is big because month-over-month variations in employment rarely crossed the 5 million mark before the lockdown. The increase in January was twice this max variation. Also, after the initial months of sharp fall and rise in employment during the lockdown, the recovery process had slowed down and then stalled even before the recovery was complete. Employment declined in each of the three months October through December 2020. The recovery in January 2021 is therefore a welcome relief.

January 2021 more than recovered the loss of employment of the past three months. Since the lockdown, employment peaked at 397.7 million in September 2020. Then it lost nearly 9 million jobs by December 2020. The nearly 12 million increase in employment in January more than offsets this loss. Employment in January 2021 at 400.7 million is in fact, the highest since the lockdown began in March 2020.

The increase in employment in January has reduced the count of unemployed to 27.9 million. These are the unemployed who are willing to work and who are actively looking for employment. This is an exceptionally low number. On an average 33 million persons who were willing to work and were looking for work were unemployed in 2019-20. This is now down to less than 28 million.

This fall in the count of the unemployed in January 2021 shows up in a fall in the unemployment rate in the same month. The unemployment rate has been volatile in the past six months as it has ranged from a low of 6.5 per cent in November 2020 to a high of 9.1 per cent in December 2020. The average unemployment rate during this six-month period has been somewhat high at about 7.4 per cent.

This volatility of the unemployment rate is a reflection of very high volatility in the month-on-month variation in the count of the unemployed. A very large number of people move in and out of being unemployed from one month to the next. In half of the months from 2016 to 2019, nearly two million persons moved in or out of the count of unemployed. Given that there are, on average, about 30 million unemployed persons, that is a very high level of volatility. The month-to-month variation in the count of unemployed has been between +7 per cent and -7 per cent in half the months from 2016 to 2019.

Volatility was much higher during the lockdown. But, volatility during these times was the result of an external shock. The high monthly volatility of unemployment in normal times reflects the high proportion of informal employment in India. A person could be employed on one day and not on the next or vice versa. Most employed persons in India do not have regular jobs. Their employment on any given day depends upon the state of the economy, upon the local environment, business conditions at large and a fair degree of luck.

The two most recent months December 2020 and January 2021 have seen an unusual jump in this volatility. In December 2020, India added 11.3 million unemployed persons. In January 2021, India saw the count of unemployed decline by 10.7 million. These are extraordinary variations. Perhaps, the sharp rise in the unemployed in December 2020 was extraordinary. And, in January 2021 India has reverted to its normal count of the unemployed, which seems to average at about 28 million. This is the average count of the unemployed since September 2020, save for the month of December when it shot up to 38 million.

CMIE’s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey captures two levels of unemployed. A person is considered to be unemployed only if such a person is willing to work but does not have any employment. CMIE distinguishes such people into those who are actively looking for work and those who are not. The unemployed and the unemployment rate computed by CMIE are based on the count of the unemployed who are willing to work and are actively looking for employment. These were 27.9 million in January 2021. Besides, there were another 12.1 million who were also unemployed and willing to work but, they were not actively looking for work. CMIE does not consider these in its computation of the unemployment rate.

The total unemployed who were willing to work but did not have any employment in January 2021 was 40 million. While this is a large number, it is the lowest in over two years.

Employment in India is still lower than it was before the lockdown, but there are lesser unemployed people willing to work as well. The recovery is still incomplete but, we made good progress in January 2021.
 

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Apple reportedly negotiating to build iPads in India​


The drive to diversify from China continues

By Sam Byford@345triangle Feb 19, 2021, 12:04am EST


Apple is said to be lobbying the Indian government in a move that could see the company manufacture iPads in the country for the first time. Reuters reports that the government is planning to launch an incentive scheme designed to boost India’s computer exports, and Apple wants in — but is angling for a better deal.

The initiative will have a budget of up to Rs. 70 billion ($964 million) over five years, according to Reuters, but Apple is reportedly asking for that to be almost tripled to Rs. 200 billion. The reason is said to be partly that India’s supply chain doesn’t yet have the scale to meet Apple’s demands.

Apple already makes iPhones in India, having started in 2018 to avoid new import tariffs imposed by the Indian government as part of a “Make in India” initiative. The company has also been seeking to diversify its manufacturing out of China; last month Nikkei reported that some iPad production would shift to Vietnam this year, which would be the first time major iPad manufacturing happened anywhere else.


Two people that spoke to Reuters said it was likely that iPads would be assembled in India by one of its current contractors “as early as this year.” Apple’s partners in India currently include Foxconn, Pegatron, and Wistron.
 

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Our country is the second most populated country in the world, so naturally in a digital India, the need for digital devices is immense. So, to empower them, at the core of any electronic device is the processor or SoC, which built from wafers and currently makers like Samsung, TSMC are the leaders in this segment.

A chip manufacturing plant is a resource-intensive task but ultimately drives investment from various companies who use these wafers to make processors, GPUs, mobile SoCs and a lot more. India heavily relies on Taiwan for semiconductors, so does the rest of the world but a country like India has the labour to support a chip plant.

1613912240589.png

Credit: Times of India

It seems finally India is considering this opportunity to act together to finally make this happen. As per Times of India’s latest article, India is considering this because it imports almost 65% of the electronic items from China and anything coming from the country is considered to be a security threat.

Here’s what the articles states:

The expressions of interest (Eol) shows we are really serious now,” VK Saraswat, member of the Niti AnyoR, said at a webinar organised last week by Times Tuchles, together with the India Electronics & Semiconductor Association (IESA).

Saraswat said previous attempts by India to establish chip fabs failed because the government’s policy was to reimburse costs only after the private sector set up a project “The country has realised that there’s no way other than for the government to make upfront investments,” he said.

Saurabh Gaur, Joint secretary In the electronics & IT ministry, said the Eol response has been good but said he could not disclose details yet he said India accounts for 5% of global semiconductor demand. The country’s demand for 28 nm (a measure of the size of transistors in a chip) semiconductor nodes and higher ones are in excess of $25 billion.

“And if a typical fab output is of say 3-4 billion, then we see space for fabs that can be ready in the next 23 years,” he said.

But almost every panellist, including Gaur, indicated that India’s best opportunities are in what are called compound semiconductors those made of two or more elements, like allium nitride, allium arsenide, silicon carbide. These are used in a variety of media products, and these fabs cost much less set up than the traditional fabs.


If India progresses in this direction, surely in the coming few years, India could indeed setup a semiconductor plant, which in turn will attract companies to invest in the soil. In a fast pacing digital world, this could be a gamechanging move if India somehow manages to do things in a right way possible.
 

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Might time well this decade with:


The Biden administration is set to launch a comprehensive review of critical supply chains, including semiconductors, high-capacity batteries, rare-earth metals and medical supplies, says a Thursday report by CNBC.

A draft of an executive order explains that the White House plans to take a close look at the, "resiliency and capacity of the American manufacturing supply chains and defense industrial base to support national security [and] emergency preparedness," according to CNBC.

(More at link)
 
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Indian semiconductors industry is too slow to fight two big to fail, stuck in a paradox. No big player is ready to invest now. There were multiple efforts before which ended in vain. The gov did invest in the military but was pushing away the private players. Hopefully, they will provide support this time around.

There is one way to ask lease of the patents like Taiwan did but I don't think the Americans would be interested in that now after they burnt their hands proping up china from zero to hero since the 80s. So mostly we are on our own.
 

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Indian semiconductors industry is too slow to fight two big to fail, stuck in a paradox. No big player is ready to invest now. There were multiple efforts before which ended in vain. The gov did invest in the military but was pushing away the private players. Hopefully, they will provide support this time around.

There is one way to ask lease of the patents like Taiwan did but I don't think the Americans would be interested in that now after they burnt their hands proping up china from zero to hero since the 80s. So mostly we are on our own.

Yeah, though I think enough people finally understand now what scale is needed to pull off a 10% niche supply chain grab now (by big upfront incentive etc), given India has the market cap leverage now to harness and sink in (unlike before and it did the wishy washy, invest and then we will incentivise later etc)....that led to the long list of missed buses from 1990 till now (since without this leverage, the govt needs to intervene at the requisite scale and India's was too lackadaisical on it to put it mildly).

Also w.r.t Biden-admin/US in general, I think what will help India is the more bipartisan approach now vis a vis supply chain security + hedging (vis-a-vis what to be done/kept inside but also outside stuff to be done by more friendly countries+allies only - this has been a big counter argument w.r.t PNTR with PRC in the 90s that has grown with hindsight now).

So you are right yes it will focus on keeping critical ones within US...but there is opportunity here too given India is friendly+strategic partner in that US and West would rather have Taiwan,Japan, SoKo etc have some of their supply chain stuff hedged in India too etc.

Some more related convo here on some underlying stuff (starting at lower part of pages):


@Milspec @Rajaraja Chola @Gautam et al.
 

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Indian workers work longest, earn the least
Updated: 22 Feb 2021, 05:16 PM IST
Rukmini S

India’s new draft labour codes, which envisage a shorter work week, may offer some flexibility to a small section of the country’s workforce. But it is not going to reduce working hours in a country that has among the longest working hours in the world.

For white collar workers who have made an easy transition to working from home, the prospect of a four-day work week, as proposed by India’s new labour codes, created some excitement recently.

But for the bulk of India’s workforce working in the informal sector - and for many skilled workers too - the new proposal will mean little or even, potentially, worse conditions.

Indians are already among the most overworked workers globally. Gambia, Mongolia, Maldives, and Qatar (where a quarter of the population is Indian) are the only countries where an average worker works longer than an Indian worker, data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) shows.

With a 48-hour working week, India ranks fifth among all countries for which ILO estimates actual mean working hours. The estimates are derived from household surveys conducted by national agencies. For most countries, the data refers to 2019 but for a few, it pertains to previous years.

Despite their long hours, Indian workers are not making much money. India had the lowest statutory minimum wage of any country in the Asia Pacific region, except for Bangladesh as of 2019.

India’s minimum wages are among the lowest in the world, except for some sub-Saharan African nations, according to the 2020-21 ILO Global Wage Report. Actual wage levels can differ from the statutory minimum wages across countries but the two tend to be closely linked, especially for blue collar workers.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/indian-workers-work-longest-earn-the-least-11613973376743.html
 

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The author (as usual, seeing her political slant in most of her output thus far) does not actually bother to go to the ILO hard data on her assertions.

 

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India's economy is likely to have returned to growth in the December quarter due to the easing of restrictions on movement after the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic peaked, a Reuters poll predicted.

The median forecast from a survey of 58 economists, conducted between Feb. 18-24, put year-on-year growth at 0.5% in the December quarter, as the economy stabilised after contracting 23.9% and 7.5% in April-June and July-Sept quarters respectively.

(more at link)
 

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Moody's revises India's growth projection to 13.7% for FY22; expects contraction of 7% this fiscal​



Rating agency Moody's on Thursday upped India's growth projection for the next financial year, beginning 1 April, to 13.7% from 10.8% estimated earlier.

The revised numbers came on the back of normalisation of activity and growing confidence in the market with the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines.

In addition to this, for the current fiscal year, the agency expects the economy to contract 7%, lower than its previous estimate of 10.6% contraction.

"Our current expectation is that in the current fiscal ending March 2021, the economy would contract 7%. We expect a rebound of 13.7% growth in the next fiscal on the normalisation of activity and base effects," said Moody's Investors Service Associate Managing Director (Sovereign Risk) Gene Fang.

The very large rebound incorporates the view that recovery in market activity will continue, with the rollout of vaccines and growing confidence of normalisation of processes, Fang said in an online conference on India Credit Outlook 2021 organised by Moody's and its India affiliate ICRA.

According to Moody's, the central government's fiscal deficit for FY2021 and FY2022 should be lower than projected, supported by stronger revenue generation in the fourth quarter of FY2021 and higher nominal GDP growth in fiscal 2022.

"Still, wide fiscal deficits combined with lower real and nominal GDP growth over the medium term will constrain the government's ability to reduce its debt burden," said Fang.

ICRA Principal Economist Aditi Nayar said it expects 0.3% growth in the third quarter (October-December) of the current fiscal.
 

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Enough folks finally grown a bit of a brain and realised that IR doesn't need to build the stations too.

Hope model expands and also involves major (esp. urban) station renovations this decade.

Apparently 400 railway stations privatisation is the current goal.

India's 2.8 trillion market capitalisation cannot simply be allowed to sit so idle (and do too much hot money speculation).

As much need to be leveraged into capex infra as possible for supply side free market esp with long term in mind.

It needs as little govt bureaucratic babudom here as possible....to get large investment funds raised and commited by letting market forces view things transparently.

Especially considering that construction gives huge amount of jobs (w.r.t ROI) for transitioning/developing country (from agro+rural)....while industry/manufacturing catches up.

@Milspec @Gautam @Indos @AlphaMike @Paro @Zapper @crixus et al.
 

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Many of these things should have been done 10, even 20 years ago. But better late than never:



Looks like economy has re-established closer to normal operating mode now:

 

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