Indonesia Indonesian Air Force, Tentara Nasional Indonesia-Angkatan Udara (TNI-AU)

[San.geuk]

maybe rafale choosed because french can provide better credit scheme than the US? and don't forget rafale is french state of art tecnology, having them with their meteor are better card than having f16v even f18, not mention embargo history still linger in top brass thinking, imo

 

[Gary]

I've always insisted that F-16V+F-15 combo is likely best for us, not only that we already operated F-16s, an F-15 has the engine commonality with a F-16. Geopolitically, having these two fighters will ensure closeness with the main power able to deter China, namely the USA. which is an important thing.

But as the higher ups have decided that it's going to be Rafale+F-15EX combo, the only thing that comes to my mind is, when we are going to sign the contracts and how fast could they be delivered. this goes as well for the 16 Frigate fleet that we're planning.

 

[San.geuk]

As good, it may sound, such a deal is going to be extremely complicated. Not even sure if it will be practically viable.

The main reason for any costumer to indigenously manufacture portions of hardware they bought is not only to receive an offset benefit, but also to help ensure supply. After all they are manufacturing goods for their own benefits. However, having another party to join the supply chain could potentially disturb the already established supply chain for any previous customer due to wide variety of factor, such as political instability, lack of industrial capacity, etc

that's reasonable if french don't want to loose their industrial capacity in their home, maybe if we persue them spare some offset production in Indonesia and India only for limited capacity for both country, that made production faster than centralized in france

 

[Jaka45]

Considering that's what happened with Taiwan, they're already an unreliable supplier in this context. People keep saying how France doesn't care what you do with their stuff unless you're literally bombing Paris when in reality they have very likely caved under Chinese pressure. It has happened before, to think that we'd be an exception in this scenario is foolhardy.

Remember, France has bigger economical trade with China than us. Until that changes don't think that they won't sell us out from under the rug. Money talks a lot more than image, as money can buy you image.

Any scenario that would make china pressure france to "embargo" our Rafale mean that war in SCS is about to become reality and US and its allies already gearing up for war

Yes we have dispute with china, but if china have a list of country they want to have trouble with i don't think indonesia is on the top of the list.
Hell i don't think even china think that it is worth it to have trouble with indonesia right now.
They still have their hand full in spratlys and with the vietnamese and US navy distrupt them
They would need to "neutralize" all countries in the spratlys dispute first before they can focus on us.

And doesn't the point of rafale is so we don't relies entirely on the US ?
You said that you have concern that france would choose china money over us.
But what happen if we somehow have problem with the US ?

 

[Chestnut]

But what happen if we somehow have problem with the US ?

Then this goes back to people being overly concerned over a notional threat 20-40 years down the line instead of being concerned over an actual threat right now.

China is being the aggressor to us right now and the US is having a cold war with them. It makes better sense to get closer with them right now in order to secure our sovereignty for the foreseeable future. If later on down the line after all things are said and done we start having issues with the United States, then we would deal that problem when it arises.

To worry about a notional threat such as Australia, Singapore, or the United States when the PRC is encroaching and antagonizing all three and us is just stupid.

 

[Nilgiri]

Since we still talk about rafale, we should cooperate with India about rafale supply chains, we can co-op with them in production line, for example if india build the wings then we should build the airframe as ToT scheme, this will make diversity on supply chain not to depend to french manufatures at least on fast moving forward component

that's reasonable if french don't want to loose their industrial capacity in their home, maybe if we persue them spare some offset production in Indonesia and India only for limited capacity for both country, that made production faster than centralized in france

This one may be relevant to read:

France proposes to move its Rafale Fighter & Panther Chopper assembly lines to India

France has reportedly proposed to completely transfer the assembly line of Panther helicopters, as well as 70% of that of Rafale fighters to India. The offer is in line with PM Modi’s “Make in India” initiative to strengthen the country’s manufacturing capacity through technology transfer...

defencehub.live

But it only really applies if India makes a huge commitment to acquiring rafale (which basically would sink every interim project like mk2 tejas and tedbf up to AMCA). I dunno if Indonesia can wait that long to see what economy of scale situation arises there between France and India (if India even goes for this).

It essentially come down to the capital retention costing+pressure of another 4-5 squadrons or so to be produced for French Air Force on top of what they are wrapping up in current production tranche right now....versus what India can muster (it would have to be larger than 4 - 5 squadrons logically). That's why France was willing to move the M-2000 line to India too in the early 2000s since they were done with it more or less....so that one was even more attractive (India was just lot poorer and fiscally stretched and timid too though, so it didn't work out).

For Indonesia there would only be some bearing on the cost, ToT and supply chain anyway....if TNI sticks with 36 rafale as final number (2 squadrons), I don't think it can muscle a whole lot for offsets with that number (unless it has a whole lot of other stuff it has going on with France across the board) and it would not really play huge deal in sticker unit price and fiscal impact for Indonesia anyway.

Indonesia would do lot better on that working out a good production plan (ToT and Rnd absorption etc) with Korea w.r.t KFX/IFX for that kind of thing.

@anmdt @Vergennes

 

[Parry Brima]

Indonesia would do lot better on that working out a good production plan (ToT and Rnd absorption etc) with Korea w.r.t KFX/IFX for that kind of thing.

What you said above reminds me of this quote from Korea Joongang Daily :

"But the delay could cost Korea its partner altogether. Indonesia is reportedly close to reaching an agreement to purchase 48 Rafale jets as part of a comprehensive defense cooperation deal with France.

The offers put out by France, which one Korean defense industry source said included a much larger transfer of fighter jet technologies, has enticed Indonesia, and according to French publication La Tribune, the two countries are close to a deal."

So it looks like France does seem willing to give more in terms of ToT than what Koreans can afford to offer.

If this is indeed the case, then maybe we plan to pick something from the Rafale deal that is not given access to in KFX deal. It's like we're using Dr. Frankenstein method in making a fighter

Indonesia appears likely to withdraw from joint fighter jet project

Korea’s ambitious indigenous fighter jet project may end up costing taxpayers much more than they bargained for, as its partner Indonesia toys with pulling out from the program altogether.

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

 

[Nilgiri]

What you said above reminds me of this quote from Korea Joongang Daily :

"But the delay could cost Korea its partner altogether. Indonesia is reportedly close to reaching an agreement to purchase 48 Rafale jets as part of a comprehensive defense cooperation deal with France.

The offers put out by France, which one Korean defense industry source said included a much larger transfer of fighter jet technologies, has enticed Indonesia, and according to French publication La Tribune, the two countries are close to a deal."

So it looks like France does seem willing to give more in terms of ToT than what Koreans can afford to offer.

If this is indeed the case, then maybe we plan to pick something from the Rafale deal that is not given access to in KFX deal. It's like we're using Dr. Frankenstein method in making a fighter

Indonesia appears likely to withdraw from joint fighter jet project

Korea’s ambitious indigenous fighter jet project may end up costing taxpayers much more than they bargained for, as its partner Indonesia toys with pulling out from the program altogether.

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Honestly bro, I am just gonna watch a bit now, its all pretty confusing.

Hope Indonesia gets best deal possible and best bang for its buck...whatever it is in the end.

 

[reashot_xigwin]

What you said above reminds me of this quote from Korea Joongang Daily :

"But the delay could cost Korea its partner altogether. Indonesia is reportedly close to reaching an agreement to purchase 48 Rafale jets as part of a comprehensive defense cooperation deal with France.

The offers put out by France, which one Korean defense industry source said included a much larger transfer of fighter jet technologies, has enticed Indonesia, and according to French publication La Tribune, the two countries are close to a deal."

So it looks like France does seem willing to give more in terms of ToT than what Koreans can afford to offer.

If this is indeed the case, then maybe we plan to pick something from the Rafale deal that is not given access to in KFX deal. It's like we're using Dr. Frankenstein method in making a fighter

Indonesia appears likely to withdraw from joint fighter jet project

Korea’s ambitious indigenous fighter jet project may end up costing taxpayers much more than they bargained for, as its partner Indonesia toys with pulling out from the program altogether.

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

I always wonder what the frenchies are offering with the ToT considering one of the tech we wanted are AESA radar among other things.

Or is Macron that desperate to sell the Rafale and try to undercut the Turkish influence here.

 

[Madokafc]

I always wonder what the frenchies are offering with the ToT considering one of the tech we wanted are AESA radar among other things.

Or is Macron that desperate to sell the Rafale and try to undercut the Turkish influence here.

Turkish influence is quite real lately here, but still they are less than what French and US can offer and committed so far. Btw, there is motion for Indonesia foreign policy including policy to procure major Arms to lean toward the US, French and UK (as Big Five ) along with other their allies including Japan, Germany and South Korea and at the same time trying to ditch Russian and China option altogether if it can be done. In short, Indonesia Will be more willing to bought stuff from Ukraine compared to Russia even when CATSAA thing is not in place (as there is rumour, Air Force likely to refurbished some expired Russian Missiles with Ukraine solution)

 

[reashot_xigwin]

Turkish influence is quite real lately here, but still they are less than what French and US can offer and committed so far. Btw, there is motion for Indonesia foreign policy including policy to procure major Arms to lean toward the US, French and UK (as Big Five ) along with other their allies including Japan, Germany and South Korea and at the same time trying to ditch Russian and China option altogether if it can be done. In short, Indonesia Will be more willing to bought stuff from Ukraine compared to Russia even when CATSAA thing is not in place (as there is rumour, Air Force likely to refurbished some expired Russian Missiles with Ukraine solution)

I think the decisions are also political in nature. Macron might see the Rafale deals as an investment of some sort. Thinking in long term losing a few key techs (again don't know what it is the french are offering) which will be obsolete when the next gen franco-german plane comes out they can gain access to a large market and potential allies in the region. Especially after he "White-Mansplained" to the muslim world about Islam.

Macron just like Erdogan after all have global ambition.

 

[Gundala]

Again, gunboat diplomacy and the fact we have ZERO ability to close or search the strait if we wanted to. That and thinking Singapore and Malaysia won't cause a fuss if we attempted to do that is stupid, they're much more in bed with the French than we are.

Ever heard about asymmetric warfare? Im not saying anything about closing the strait. There was once an era where the "piracy" over malaka strait somehow got bloomed. This event followed by accusing Indonesia not being able to maintain security in their own area thus bringing the idea of having US/Foreign troops permanently patrol the area. To do that the US/Foreign troops need a place to refuel and making a base over there justified. If I recall correctly this was supported by 2 of our "friendly" neighbor. This anger our Govt and indirectly accuse our neighbor has hidden agenda over this event.

Now what if somehow we return the favor by doing covert ops and make malaka strait not safe? Insurance cost will raise, overall cost will raise, and the only option is Sunda straitght which is also within our teritory. Thats my friend is our leverage, a curse and a bless at the same time. Nobody like to see us getting stronger simply because this trade route.

And no, its not foolish to still put our eyes on our own neighbor while we deal with China.

Why do that when the Chinese can just guarantee access and cooperation with gunboat diplomacy?

Gunboat diplomacy is one of many tools in geopolitics. This kinda of diplomacy doesnt stand alone, its part of strategic/tactical diplomacy to influence others to reach the goal. It also has its own limitation as in how far this kind of diplomacy can go before it backfired.

We know that some if not most of China missiles is using french tech parts, this alone will give leverage to French is somehow they got cornered by China. By having good relation to French can also help us influence China via back channel not to do anything foolish. So both gained something, and again "guarantee access and cooperation" seems ilogical and foolish statement when the whole world agree that politics is dynamic.

Our current adversary is China, and they have and will escalate things as days go by. We have all seen what they are willing to do to control the SCS since they think that there's billions of dollars worth of oil down there. Again, diversification is a sham, and thinking that it's anything other than a political corruption cash-grab scheme is living under a rock with rose tinted glasses.

Well to think diversification is mainly just for cash-grab scheme alone is also unwise and like seeing with kaca mata kuda. It might benefit some oknum or factions, but to think that it will give us less benefit as Nation is unwise. But I can understand where your frustation come from, I know a thing or two about how procurement works.

Think big, those natural resources is just a bonus if not a cover up. What they aim is to solely control one of the world trade route and give them huge leverage. Thats bigger then any natural reource in the eyes of geopolitic/economic influence. Thats what their after.

 

[FPXAllen]

Honestly bro, I am just gonna watch a bit now, its all pretty confusing.

We have always been confused by Indonesian arms procurement programs since long ago

 

[morningstar]

Now what if somehow we return the favor by doing covert ops and make malaka strait not safe? Insurance cost will raise, overall cost will raise, and the only option is Sunda straitght which is also within our teritory. Thats my friend is our leverage, a curse and a bless at the same time. Nobody like to see us getting stronger simply because this trade route.

And no, its not foolish to still put our eyes on our own neighbor while we deal with China.

I ever heard it from a video that Mr. Ponto also in it.

What important is "don't pointing fingers" without prove. We have to investigate the case of piracy with clear head, no skepticism toward anyone, so the conclusion not bias.

 

[Soman45]

Dun...dun...dun...dun sad moment for our eastern weapons indeed

oh boy their fans are not gonna like this

 

[morningstar]

Dun...dun...dun...dun sad moment for our eastern weapons indeed

View attachment 14945

oh boy their fans are not gonna like this

Jokowi's cabinets are fill with US educated ministers. They must be aware of what Russia is doing around the world (especially Hybrid Warfare).

 

[reashot_xigwin]

Ever heard about asymmetric warfare? Im not saying anything about closing the strait. There was once an era where the "piracy" over malaka strait somehow got bloomed. This event followed by accusing Indonesia not being able to maintain security in their own area thus bringing the idea of having US/Foreign troops permanently patrol the area. To do that the US/Foreign troops need a place to refuel and making a base over there justified. If I recall correctly this was supported by 2 of our "friendly" neighbor. This anger our Govt and indirectly accuse our neighbor has hidden agenda over this event.

Now what if somehow we return the favor by doing covert ops and make malaka strait not safe? Insurance cost will raise, overall cost will raise, and the only option is Sunda straitght which is also within our teritory. Thats my friend is our leverage, a curse and a bless at the same time. Nobody like to see us getting stronger simply because this trade route.

And no, its not foolish to still put our eyes on our own neighbor while we deal with China.

Gunboat diplomacy is one of many tools in geopolitics. This kinda of diplomacy doesnt stand alone, its part of strategic/tactical diplomacy to influence others to reach the goal. It also has its own limitation as in how far this kind of diplomacy can go before it backfired.

We know that some if not most of China missiles is using french tech parts, this alone will give leverage to French is somehow they got cornered by China. By having good relation to French can also help us influence China via back channel not to do anything foolish. So both gained something, and again "guarantee access and cooperation" seems ilogical and foolish statement when the whole world agree that politics is dynamic.

Well to think diversification is mainly just for cash-grab scheme alone is also unwise and like seeing with kaca mata kuda. It might benefit some oknum or factions, but to think that it will give us less benefit as Nation is unwise. But I can understand where your frustation come from, I know a thing or two about how procurement works.

Think big, those natural resources is just a bonus if not a cover up. What they aim is to solely control one of the world trade route and give them huge leverage. Thats bigger then any natural reource in the eyes of geopolitic/economic influence. Thats what their after.

What chestnut forgot is that we don't physically need to close the strait ourselves. Even the threat of closing the strait and sinking a ship is already enough to cause widespread disruption to the global supply chains.

And bringing in others countries is precisely the point. The moment we close the strait is the moment all countries will collectively act to prevent it from happening who do you think the international community will side with? One of the world largest democracy fighting in defensive war to protect ourselves or a communist dictatorship in an offensive war.

 

[this is crunch]

Dun...dun...dun...dun sad moment for our eastern weapons indeed

View attachment 14945

oh boy their fans are not gonna like this

if indeed we wanted to sell those Russian aircraft, and since we all already know how un-efficient it is to having and maintain the eastern product , IMO thats would be an effective solution for us to re-align and strengthen our aircraft maintenance and qualities for a long period of time,

and if so the they are materialized, our current MRCA procurement would only be a replacement program for what we have before

 

[reashot_xigwin]

Dun...dun...dun...dun sad moment for our eastern weapons indeed

View attachment 14945

oh boy their fans are not gonna like this

 

[morningstar]

Dun...dun...dun...dun sad moment for our eastern weapons indeed

View attachment 14945

oh boy their fans are not gonna like this

Russian Fansboy be like :

I think @reashot_xigwin just introducing a new trends wkwkw