Indonesia Indonesian Air Force, Tentara Nasional Indonesia-Angkatan Udara (TNI-AU)

[Chestnut]

Isn't that the whole reasons why we have the "don't put all our eggs in one basket" military approach? Just saying the word Embargo is enough to sends most of the top military generals running away like little girl.

No, it's just corruption at the end on the day.

 

[Chestnut]

I'm not underestimating the capability of modern based surveillance. If the target is cruising in a predictable manner from the time they set off from the port, and as it happen there is a available that covering the area, or in a narrow waterway, etc. The point is, there isn't enough up there to cover the entire world oceans.

You don't need to map the entire ocean when you only need to map our waters. What do we get from knowing what he Brazilian Navy is doing in the Atlantic?

Does anyone have ever put to the test what works & what doesn't before the actual combat

Only after the fact happen does anyone could determine what works & what doesn't. Anything beforehand is academic at best.

Anyone where? Our neighbors do that all the time, hell Singapore spend billion of dollars into new tech and theories to see whether they work or not since they can;t afford mistakes. And it is foolish to discount that just because you think it's 'academic'.

I need to address this separately.

Neither of my comment was specifically intended to aim or insult you in person. I was arguing your points. If I were going ad hominem at you (of which I'm not), it will be a lot more than just associating you as part of any grouping. Whether you felt insulted or whatever is your business. And yet so far (in regard to the quoted above) the only one whose going ad hominem is you toward me, not to mention you also indirectly bragging about yourself, and making whatever claims out of the blue.

If you feel insulted then just put me in your ignore list and be done with it. Beside neither of us get paid to write anything here, so nobody loss anything.

The only reason I jabbed at you back is because of your ad hominem, if we're not going to have a civil discussion, then I'm not going to hold back either.

 

[Gary]

it's not about diversification, it's just dealing with the US is more transparent, which lessen the possibilities of corruption.

sometimes I still can't understand why we opt for VL-MICA rather than ESSM+MK41 VLS, consider that an ESSM would likely be cheaper (because of RFP lots) we could have instead a longer ranged quad packed capable missile.

the same goes with the Rafale instead of F-16. what currently that an F-16V can't deliver that only the Rafale can??

 

[Parry Brima]

Their aim IS the natural resources. The one thing the US has that they don't are oil reserves. if their aim is to control the strait than the 9 dash line would be FAR larger.

See the green blocks? That's Vietnam's gas block claims that are currently trying to be controlled by China. There is no point in China attempting to control the strai if US Navy ships can simply blockade any Chinese bound cargo ship heading towards the strait while it's in the Indian Ocean/Pacific Ocean.

View attachment 15008

Everyone knows we are militarily unable to do that. We can barely do regular patrols as it is, and to think we can attempt to sink a ship, (let alone a warship_ would simply put US in the wrong.

Vietnam only has about 4.4 billions barrels proven oil reserves while China import 4.3 billion barrels per year. I know this might increase in the future along with more oil exploration but I don't think this worth a huge war for China.

This is the data for the biggest oil reserves in the world (proven, proven+probable, most likely estimates from existing and discoveries, and most likely estimates from existing-discoveries-undiscovered).

I always believe that this China's potential conflict has one biggest prize that many countries crave. It's not oil reserves, not Taiwan, not even nine-dash-line area. Those are small prizes. What is the biggest prize? Indonesian straits.

About 80% China's oil import passing through Malacca strait and China are not only importing oil, but also coal, LNG, and other natural resources.

This is some scary stuff. Everybody knows Malacca strait (or any Indonesian straits) will become one of China's major weakness. Everybody also knows that China have more than enough missiles to destroy anything that floats in SCS. So why bother fighting in SCS and sacrificing many of your naval units when you can just move the battlefield to around Indonesian straits and get huge advantage to choke China's trade route.

In the middle of last year there's even report that the U.S. were contemplating to move their USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier to Malacca strait. It doesn't take a genius to guess that the U.S. might have been advising India to use their close access to Malacca strait north exit from their Andaman-Nicoba military base to prepare for the strategy to block/destroy China's cargo ship.

So we have to prepare for this. This war won't be recorded in history as The Battle of SCS. Instead it'll be The Battle of Malacca Strait.

(I really hope not).

 

[San.geuk]

Vietnam only has about 4.4 billions barrels proven oil reserves while China import 4.3 billion barrels per year. I know this might increase in the future along with more oil exploration but I don't think this worth a huge war for China.

This is the data for the biggest oil reserves in the world (proven, proven+probable, most likely estimates from existing and discoveries, and most likely estimates from existing-discoveries-undiscovered).

View attachment 15040

I always believe that this China's potential conflict has one biggest prize that many countries crave. It's not oil reserves, not Taiwan, not even nine-dash-line area. Those are small prizes. What is the biggest prize? Indonesian straits.

About 80% China's oil import passing through Malacca strait and China are not only importing oil, but also coal, LNG, and other natural resources.

This is some scary stuff. Everybody knows Malacca strait (or any Indonesian straits) will become one of China's major weakness. Everybody also knows that China have more than enough missiles to destroy anything that floats in SCS. So why bother fighting in SCS and sacrificing many of your naval units when you can just move the battlefield to around Indonesian straits and get huge advantage to choke China's trade route.

In the middle of last year there's even report that the U.S. were contemplating to move their USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier to Malacca strait. It doesn't take a genius to guess that the U.S. might have been advising India to use their close access to Malacca strait north exit from their Andaman-Nicoba military base to prepare for the strategy to block/destroy China's cargo ship.

So we have to prepare for this. This war won't be recorded in history as The Battle of SCS. Instead it'll be The Battle of Malacca Strait.

(I really hope not).

if china want to control Malacca, they have to neutralize natuna first, but actually there is a cheaper option rather than fight at sea for logistics, they can use Burma as their vassal state to delivery goods from middle east to their mainland bypassing our sealine, if they choose this option then don't have to fight in Malacca straight

 

[reashot_xigwin]

No, it's just corruption at the end on the day.

If it's all about corruption we would not be so insistent with ToT. Baby boomers like Prabowo is not the only one in charge of procurement. Not everything is Monocausal. The guy maybe francophile but if he can secure a tech deals from it he can fuck the rafales for all I care.

Look it from their side the TNI got stiffed by Russia and the US. While maintaining diverse systems doesn't make sense logistic wise it makes sense political wise. And if the story is that we're selling the sukhoi is true then it's pretty much a quantum leap for our armed forces by finally using common sense.

 

[this is crunch]

i know it should be in the navy forums, but tanggung lah, pardon me

Vietnam only has about 4.4 billions barrels proven oil reserves while China import 4.3 billion barrels per year. I know this might increase in the future along with more oil exploration but I don't think this worth a huge war for China.

This is the data for the biggest oil reserves in the world (proven, proven+probable, most likely estimates from existing and discoveries, and most likely estimates from existing-discoveries-undiscovered).

View attachment 15040

I always believe that this China's potential conflict has one biggest prize that many countries crave. It's not oil reserves, not Taiwan, not even nine-dash-line area. Those are small prizes. What is the biggest prize? Indonesian straits.

About 80% China's oil import passing through Malacca strait and China are not only importing oil, but also coal, LNG, and other natural resources.

This is some scary stuff. Everybody knows Malacca strait (or any Indonesian straits) will become one of China's major weakness. Everybody also knows that China have more than enough missiles to destroy anything that floats in SCS. So why bother fighting in SCS and sacrificing many of your naval units when you can just move the battlefield to around Indonesian straits and get huge advantage to choke China's trade route.

In the middle of last year there's even report that the U.S. were contemplating to move their USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier to Malacca strait. It doesn't take a genius to guess that the U.S. might have been advising India to use their close access to Malacca strait north exit from their Andaman-Nicoba military base to prepare for the strategy to block/destroy China's cargo ship.

So we have to prepare for this. This war won't be recorded in history as The Battle of SCS. Instead it'll be The Battle of Malacca Strait.

(I really hope not).

have you ever heard of Kra Canal? it is China's ambitious plan with Thailand to build a waterway across the Malayan peninsula, in 2015 the plan revealed, Indonesian and Malaysian gov't pressing and lobying the thai gov't so the plan was never executed

the Chinese actually have so much Ace card to use againts anyone opposing them, it is a complicated issue if we dealing with this nation. The best things to do for us now is strengthening our military and diplomatic relation with our closest neighbours, especially MLY, SING, and Aussy,

Our Oils, Trees, Palm Oils, Coals and many other commodities are become sensitive if it comes to dealing with chinese, and not only us, any other country like India and US also facing the same or higher risk for that, we should repair our nation first before

and also, @Chestnut and @trishna_amrta , hold your self, its friday now

 

[Nilgiri]

Overall I agree with chestnut, i dont think the SCS push by China has much to do with the logistics aspect of it (i.e preventing scope of sea denial on crucial lanes etc in a conflict or war against China compared to if they dont push there during peacetime).

For one, civilian trade sea lanes wont really matter in a war-time to begin with (esp in this current era where hot protracted strategic war is largely out of the scope to begin with).

Countries will go into war-mode to achieve results in quickest time frame for them....and it will be after the war that civilian peacetime stuff will be re-built and re-established in whatever the situation is afterwards.

Countries build up capacity and reserves and intensity in their strike doctrines with this in mind already. No one is really going to plan running TEUs + bunks (or being dependent on what they deliver, fuel or otherwise) across sea lanes and roads and rail where such things are open for enemy interdiction/denial to begin with.

Secondly with the road+railnetwork situation (BRI) etc, it would be useful to do calculation on just what their sustained capacity is compared to sea....per km travelled and per ton of cargo conveyed.

Also remember road and rail are hard infra open to much more focused interdiction to shut them down compared to ships out in the water....which have far more hedged degrees of freedom.

China knows this, the road they build to "connect" with indian ocean through pakistan and burma suffer these vulnerabilities and capacity constraints. It is really more of a thing driven by opportunity cost with China having developed massive construction labour pool that cannot simply be retrained for other purposes easily (as saturation approaches in PRC itself for such projects)....so China rather would create zones where they can be deployed externally.

It creates loan dependence (and debt trap in the extreme form of it) + steady brochure propaganda too in countries China seeks more political influence in....so its win win for them. Chinese forex pile (and CCP driven banks) means payback problems are just negotiated beforehand or equity given in other areas....so there is minimal "default" issue in the period of time China projects for its current model. Money tied up in these countries to paying them back also stifles their potential labour competition with lower rungs of Chinese labour/factories (earning more buffer for this in Chinese economic model).

So tt is indeed mostly resource/EEZ driven in SCS, but also ego (great power) driven and psyche driven in larger sense...

i.e why are we denied far ranging possessions like hawaii, diego garcia, A+N islands etc etc in our own "backyard"?

why are we denied large expanse of open ocean like the others of our size?...esp given our presence in trade now etc..

The pressure spills over southwards from hainan naturally because of taiwan, japanese island chain are hard barriers in that area further north to it. Even during cold war (when PLAN was just greenwater at best), there was the paracel island grab done vis a vis Vietnam (sensing opportunity with impending collapse of south vietnam)....so it has just commensurately increased as their power and wealth has grown greatly since the cold war ended.

As far as possible cold red lines need to be illustrated to CCP/PLA....otherwise they just get emboldened. Each major power needs to find out their own way to do this that works for them. India for example has ladakh (recently) and whole border with tibet (more broadly) to do/experience this going forward...not to mention an extremely hostile country to the west that is the top-ally of PRC. Commie Vietnam had a pretty brutal (near existential level given position of Hanoi relative to border) war in 1979 with them...going further back.

SCS countries imo, must put their differences aside ASAP and as much as possible, and work together with the other world + regional major powers to come up with sound + enforced red lines....and call out the typical bluffs and posturing CCP does in the grey space they got dependent on and are used to. CCP/PLA will not take anything else seriously....you need to make them go back to their drawing board as far as possible.

@Paro @VCheng @T-123456 @MisterLike @Kartal1 @Sinan @xenon5434 @Deliorman @UkroTurk @anmdt et al.

 

[reashot_xigwin]

i know it should be in the navy forums, but tanggung lah, pardon me

have you ever heard of Kra Canal? it is China's ambitious plan with Thailand to build a waterway across the Malayan peninsula, in 2015 the plan revealed, Indonesian and Malaysian gov't pressing and lobying the thai gov't so the plan was never executed
View attachment 15041

the Chinese actually have so much Ace card to use againts anyone opposing them, it is a complicated issue if we dealing with this nation. The best things to do for us now is strengthening our military and diplomatic relation with our closest neighbours, especially MLY, SING, and Aussy,

Our Oils, Trees, Palm Oils, Coals and many other commodities are become sensitive if it comes to dealing with chinese, and not only us, any other country like India and US also facing the same or higher risk for that, we should repair our nation first before

and also, @Chestnut and @trishna_amrta , hold your self, its friday now

It's most likely not going to happens. Remember the Nicaraguan Canal?

Many of china's OBOR infrastructure has been bust almost everywhere. Not to mention the Kra Canal makes zero economic sense.

 

[Parry Brima]

have you ever heard of Kra Canal? it is China's ambitious plan with Thailand to build a waterway across the Malayan peninsula, in 2015 the plan revealed, Indonesian and Malaysian gov't pressing and lobying the thai gov't so the plan was never executed
View attachment 15041

One of the reason why Thai government seems reluctant to approve Kra Canal idea is demographic.

The southern part of the canal will be majority muslims and that will create problematic separatist problem.

 

[reashot_xigwin]

One of the reason why Thai government seems reluctant to approve Kra Canal idea is demographic.

The southern part of the canal will be majority muslims and that will create problematic separatist problem.

If they did actually try to built it It's not the 1st time a major power supports separatism in the country so they can have a canal built through it.

*wink* *wink*

 

[this is crunch]

It's most likely not going to happens. Remember the Nicaraguan Canal?

Many of china's OBOR infrastructure has been bust almost everywhere. Not to mention the Kra Canal makes zero economic sense.

One of the reason why Thai government seems reluctant to approve Kra Canal idea is demographic.

The southern part of the canal will be majority muslims and that will create problematic separatist problem.

uhm i put the Kra Canal Exmp is not about an economic sense or demographic problem, what im saying is the Chinese ability to put us and some country in the region on preassure in the same time while maintaining they playing card game in SCS

the region seems nothing compared to China, at any field available, and yes ofcourse we could strike back to them at any other form but still is not worth the same for us from what they have taken

 

[reashot_xigwin]

uhm i put the Kra Canal Exmp is not about an economic sense or demographic problem, what im saying is the Chinese ability to put us and some country in the region on preassure in the same time while maintaining they playing card game in SCS

the region seems nothing compared to China, at any field available, and yes ofcourse we could strike back to them at any other form but still is not worth the same for us from what they have taken

my mistakes then. My suggestion to relieves the pressure then is to bring in other countries for naval exercise near the Natuna and if possible further collaboration with QUAD nations even joining them if the situations warrant it.

 

[Gundala]

Yes ASSUMING you actually were looking for them and somehow know WHERE to look for them. Furthermore, one can always tell the orbit, thus reliably predict WHEN the bird will come into view.

way of doing things is applicable for their geographic condition, in this case they are being a city state. Moreover, their military establishment need to justify their relevancy of their very existence to their lawmaker (to keep theflowing)

No such thing as absolute when real bullets start flying for real. It came down in HOW, WHERE, and WHEN to apply a certain type of warfare. It's not about the theory but is about the execution.


Based upon that logic of yours, that also mean it will be the same with buying anything from . Because had stolen & reverse engineering everything they bought right


What is that isn't money grab in any gov't Does military procurement isn't money grab eeech sorry I mean "jobs creation" Does any platform design requirement was actually dictated by the end user and designed by engineers rather than by a committeeor as an example, does Boeing doesn't lobbying FAA to get that suicidal B-737 MAX to get approved


Unfortunately, neither you or any of those sales rep eeech sorry I mean "Industrial Expert" would be in the line of fire and putting & risking their lives in the line of duty WHEN whatever it is you / they were proposing will be in actual combat operation.

If its were up to me, whenever someone came offering let say for example a body armour, that is rated for whatever cartridge. I will ask that sales rep eeech sorry I mean Industrial rep to wear it on and shoot him with the very cartridge that he was claiming the body armour is rated for.


That maybe true indeed, HOWEVER also have need to surge their fleet into Indian Ocean and also to secure commerce traffic which also include petroleum from the Gulf. Having railroad connection that goes all the way to is a start. However, when one is playing the long game, a single point of failure isn't an acceptable solution either. Thus, their need to also secure SEALOC between into the Indian Ocean

We have the same thinking, and I have seen Chestnut reply as well. However I would like to add view things...

I worked for that procurement process, I know for a fact it's a cash grab scheme. What benefit for a nation would it be we get something that would inevitably be a defense budget sinkhole? The army Alone is already cash strapped because of the constant purchase of assets that more or less functions the same, to do that to a an aircraft would be 10 times worse by the operational costs alone.

From all 3 matra, the army seems to be the one needed to be more efficient & effective in their procurement process including harwat. I assume you already know that. The root of the problem is lack of budget, whether its Viper or Rafale the root will be there as the harwat budget mostly doesnt come from mindef and vulnerable to changes. I agree that Rafale might not be a good choice compare to Viper in budget maintenance and infratructure perspective. I personally still prefer Viper due to our lack of political commitment in harwat area, but perhaps geopolitics need to be addressed as well as part of procurement process. And I personally dont know what the deal outside the commercial sales, all I know soon after that I saw French sub doing exercise with us and later on their LHD seems to have plan to visit the contested area as well. Who knows what that means and what would be the next scenario except them.....

Btw the final decission with all the deal (commercial, billateral, political consideration) only know by handful of people. So jumping on the conclusion isnt wise, and whatever type or brand we are going to choose there always be a rat somewhere ready to take the slice

Gado-gado doctrine simply does not work and if you don't believe me, simply ask those over on places like DefenceTalk, r/credibledefense, etc. who are FAR mor experienced in the industry that I am.

If we look at the operational perspective I agree with you. But the broader point of view might tell different things, Im sure other countries know the gado-gado consequences but there are some reasons outside the operational perspective that make them do that and so do we.

As for the Singapore who prefered not to have fast patrol boat that is understandable considering their small sea teritory area. In real operation (war time, peace time or somewhere in between) we sometime need to get closer to the object to identify before making decission, this is one area that it might shine. There are other things as well that prolly too long to write on. But my point is comparing Singapore strategic & tactical decision to us cant be done like that, we are too different than them in many ways. We can learn things from them but surely not with that kind of thinking.

 

[Parry Brima]

Regarding Rafale, I just stumbled upon this article about India's deal for 36 jets. The offset is 50% of the total value (€7.87 bil). Without the offset it only cost about €3.9 bil.

The deal includes the aircraft in fly-away condition, weapons, simulators, spares, maintenance, and Performance Based Logistics support for five years.

India, France ink €7.87 billion agreement for 36 Rafales

The deal includes aircraft in fly-away condition, weapons, simulators, spares, maintenance, and Performance Based Logistics support for five years.

www.thehindu.com

 

[FPXAllen]

Hackers leaked secret details of Globaleye AEW aircraft:

Hackers Leaked Secret Details of This Military Spy Plane

The aircraft manufacturer refused to pay a cyber ransom.

www.popularmechanics.com

Since those hackers managed to compromise Bombardier's server and stole the details of the Globaleye, this probably will also affect all of its current users as well as putting a lot of pressure for potential customers to review their interests in this system.

 

[whatintarnation]

Hackers leaked secret details of Globaleye AEW aircraft:

Hackers Leaked Secret Details of This Military Spy Plane

The aircraft manufacturer refused to pay a cyber ransom.

www.popularmechanics.com

Since those hackers managed to compromise Bombardier's server and stole the details of the Globaleye, this probably will also affect all of its current users as well as putting a lot of pressure for potential customers to review their interests in this system.

Mexico, Brazil, Greece, Pakistan, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates and Sweden:

 

[Parry Brima]

Hackers leaked secret details of Globaleye AEW aircraft:

Hackers Leaked Secret Details of This Military Spy Plane

The aircraft manufacturer refused to pay a cyber ransom.

www.popularmechanics.com

Since those hackers managed to compromise Bombardier's server and stole the details of the Globaleye, this probably will also affect all of its current users as well as putting a lot of pressure for potential customers to review their interests in this system.

Since the hacking happened at Bombardier’s servers hopefully it only contains the aircraft installation details and not the sensitive inside information of the Erieye radar system itself.

Regarding Rafale, I just stumbled upon this article about India's deal for 36 jets. The offset is 50% of the total value (€7.87 bil). Without the offset it only cost about €3.9 bil.

The deal includes the aircraft in fly-away condition, weapons, simulators, spares, maintenance, and Performance Based Logistics support for five years.

India, France ink €7.87 billion agreement for 36 Rafales

The deal includes aircraft in fly-away condition, weapons, simulators, spares, maintenance, and Performance Based Logistics support for five years.

www.thehindu.com

Just like to re-emphasize the price using USD (current rate) of this India Rafale deal (36 jets).

The price for the aircraft iself is only $110 mil/jet.

You add weapons, simulators, spares, maintenance, and Performance Based Logistics support for five years, it becomes $132 mil/jet.

You add offset business (like India) it becomes $264 mil/jet.

This is cheaper than F-15EX ($150 mil just for the aircraft alone). The CPFH is also lower, $16,500 (Rafale) vs $29,000 (F-15EX). So financially, Rafale is not a bad choice.

 

[JATOSINT]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1365566005062242306

 

[Umigami]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1365566005062242306

Still no X ?