Is Taiwan Next?

[Joe Shearer]

Is Taiwan next ?

Yeah maybe , but this time US air force and naval aviation will prevent the invaders achieving air superiority and we're going to see a repeat of the Russian army in Ukraine.

Except this time the invading forces will be drowned underwater.

I don't know.

If I were in oriental mood, I would just keep up relentless pressure, without any overt military action, just constant military presence, with an increasing local superiority, until everybody facing me just caves in.

Why lose lives? I am producing more ships per year than the US, even in the aircraft carrier class, just not the nuclear-powered super-carrier, bigger destroyers, larger than WWII light cruisers, with the firepower of the British Grand Fleet, more frigates than the rest of Asia and the US combined, submarines swarming the Pacific, tracking every American task force, and every merchant ship carrying cargo anywhere but to my ports - what will they do?

 

[Madokafc]

China had more levelheadedness compared to Brutish Russian orc

But if they actually work with their military punch in the case, just prepare for the great war of Asia

 

[Viva_vietnamm]

Xi will wait and watch this year (especially since hands full on how these things now settle with Putin and West to take forward).

Usual flexing on taiwan strait might increase a bit....but I really do not think they want or are even prepared for that war with Taiwan.

It would be another matter if Taiwan was not an island.....well it would have been resolved in the civil war itself....we would not have this situation to begin with.

Island fortress brings unique thing to any theatre analysis....you have to study the conveyance logistics for such a thing closely as possible. Everything hinges on that for the war....that chokepoint if you will.

If its bad enough for the attacker, its a large deterrence no matter its overall bulk ratio it enjoys.

I think, CN will invade TW if Russia successfully occupy Ukraine and willing to has a plan to cut off the oil route from Middle east to Europe. CN don't wanna (and never wanna) become weaker than her rival Russia, thats why Deng willing to bow down to daddy JP and US in 1978 just to stop Soviet-VN's alliance/expansion.

We may see more fun in CN in 2023. CN will have to do something if Russia successfully occupy Ukraine or else, she will be bullied again like Soviet's era .

 

[Blackbeardsgoldfish]

I don't know.

If I were in oriental mood, I would just keep up relentless pressure, without any overt military action, just constant military presence, with an increasing local superiority, until everybody facing me just caves in.

Why lose lives? I am producing more ships per year than the US, even in the aircraft carrier class, just not the nuclear-powered super-carrier, bigger destroyers, larger than WWII light cruisers, with the firepower of the British Grand Fleet, more frigates than the rest of Asia and the US combined, submarines swarming the Pacific, tracking every American task force, and every merchant ship carrying cargo anywhere but to my ports - what will they do?

Not only are the american vessels being tracked by submarines, but also by satellite and hydrophones, the same goes for the chinese ones.

One thing however is the Kadena AFB, which is around 640km from Taipei and around 800 from central Taiwan Strait. The american forces stationed there need to be considered alongside the naval assets.

I've said before what I think some of the main lessons the PLA is drawing from the war in Ukraine are:

The lessons that the PLA is drawing from this(at least I suspect that) is that they need to have enough SRBMs in stock to sustain a continuous bombardment of the island for weeks, especially military infrastructure, power plants and administrative centers. This means that they'll build up their arsenal of DF-11, DF-12, DF-15, HN 1 and YJ-18 missiles for as long and as much as they can. Other missile variants too of course, but for this operation they seem like the most important ones.

As you said Joe, as long as the loss of life can be kept to the absolute minimum for the mainland and support for the war high, it's a fairly high likelihood. This isn't even going into the IW and EW capabilities of China, but about that I have even less of a clue than the rest.

 

[Nilgiri]

I'll be getting to it soon again.

Another thing you must consider with all Taiwan analysis is the golden goose factor and how that looks for PRC post (hypothetical) war.

Down to detail of how do you manage the defeated Taiwanese population (who's worst fears they put as unlikely are now fully realised).

Its people in the end that matter the most (way past capital assets)....this is no longer the cold war era.

This is the kind of thing that PRC will not want to have with Taiwan for example:

Neil Hauer recent tweet thread:

Something I've noticed over the past week or so here: almost every Ukrainian I spoke to has made it clear that they blame not only Putin, but the average Russian as much (or more) for this war. The view is: we overthrew our corrupt government, and they accept their murderous one.

The amount of animosity from the average Ukrainian towards the average Russian is already huge and growing more with every single new airstrike, every new civilian death. The effects of this war will last for generations.

And I'm saying this from Kharkiv. I think I saw more virulently anti-Russian views here than anywhere else in the country. The sense of betrayal here, of 'how could they possibly do this to *us*', is incredible.

The people we watched crawl out of the rubble today told us their relatives in Moscow didn't believe them. Videos of their destroyed home were met with 'it's a fake' or 'Nazis did it.' *Every* bond between Ukrainians & Russians - familial, cultural, historical - is being broken.

Honestly Kharkiv is crazy. Everything from the center going northwards, just street after street is blown out. Every street littered with glass and burned-out cars and broken buildings.

 

[Manomed]

R

I think, CN will invade TW if Russia successfully occupy Ukraine and willing to has a plan to cut off the oil route from Middle east to Europe. CN don't wanna (and never wanna) become weaker than her rival Russia, thats why Deng willing to bow down to daddy JP and US in 1978 just to stop Soviet-VN's alliance/expansion.

We may see more fun in CN in 2023. CN will have to do something if Russia successfully occupy Ukraine or else, she will be bullied again like Soviet's era .

Russia can't bully chinese China surpasses Russia when it comes to aviation or army. Chinese can do SEAD or DEAD unlike russians lol

 

[Nilgiri]

R

Russia can't bully chinese China surpasses Russia when it comes to aviation or army. Chinese can do SEAD or DEAD unlike russians lol

Only with war we can actually see what SEAD and DEAD a country actually can exert. PRC has not gotten into one for it....so how would we know their performance?

 

[Blackbeardsgoldfish]

This is the kind of thing that PRC will not want to have with Taiwan for example:

If it takes a war to reunite China in the CCP's vision, then that is one thing. Administering the island competently enough to not have years and years of insurgency is another one, and that'll be especially difficult if it's going to be a administered by the military first and foremost.

The amount of weapons that the US would "donate" to them then would likely dwarf the support the mujahideen received...

 

[Lordimperator]

that'll be especially difficult if it's going to be a administered by the military first and foremost.

Like the way they did in Hongkong?

 

[Blackbeardsgoldfish]

Like the way they did in Hongkong?

Harsher, and bigger in scale. Nothing to look forward to, so I dearly hope that there won't come a war

 

[Tabmachine]

Just like between Russians and Ukrainians the only people who will really be able to understand the situation are the people who understand Chinese culture and internal politics. Pakistanis, Indonesians, Indians, Turks, we're all on the outside looking in.

From what I have read though, the real battle in Taiwan has little to do with the citizenry, its mostly an intelligence war between US-aligned and China-aligned factions within the government/military. I'd expect whoever establishes military/political predominance would become the accepted government.

 

[Nilgiri]

If it takes a war to reunite China in the CCP's vision, then that is one thing. Administering the island competently enough to not have years and years of insurgency is another one, and that'll be especially difficult if it's going to be a administered by the military first and foremost.

The amount of weapons that the US would "donate" to them then would likely dwarf the support the mujahideen received...

What Taiwan provides to China (and the world at large more broadly) is also huge....

It is for example the literal single failure point for immense amount of processors/chips etc (especially at the highest tiers).

That adds a huge amount of deterrence to keeping status quo....for all sides that cannot afford such a golden goose to be upset or even destroyed....given the extremely long time to develop anything like that again, anywhere.

PRC really cannot risk doing something by absolute force for quite a long time.

 

[Viva_vietnamm]

R

Russia can't bully chinese China surpasses Russia when it comes to aviation or army. Chinese can do SEAD or DEAD unlike russians lol

Yeah, could be. But Russia can collude with US and make more troubles, more sanction to CN like during Eight nation alliance era. To US, CN is much easier target to beat that Russia

We all knew that Vladivostok belong to CN since Yuan to Manchus dynasty, but now Vladivostok belong to Russia.

---------------

 

[Nilgiri]

I think, CN will invade TW if Russia successfully occupy Ukraine and willing to has a plan to cut off the oil route from Middle east to Europe. CN don't wanna (and never wanna) become weaker than her rival Russia, thats why Deng willing to bow down to daddy JP and US in 1978 just to stop Soviet-VN's alliance/expansion.

We may see more fun in CN in 2023. CN will have to do something if Russia successfully occupy Ukraine or else, she will be bullied again like Soviet's era .

US spy bird (on intel loan to PRC) couldn't see the vietnamese sappers in mud

it was really bad news for PRC....and they had to turn tail...as hanoi would simply be impossible....they knew numbers located there Viets had heh.

People dont study that war enough....you can learn so much from it....lot is actually applicable to this day.

Russia struggle with Kiev and Kharkov same way.

 

[Viva_vietnamm]

US spy bird (on intel loan to PRC) couldn't see the vietnamese sappers in mud

it was really bad news for PRC....and they had to turn tail...as hanoi would simply be impossible....they knew numbers located there Viets had heh.

People dont study that war enough....you can learn so much from it....lot is actually applicable to this day.

Russia struggle with Kiev and Kharkov same way.

Russia is building an air base in Laos now. The very clear purpose is to contain China (and maybe to kick US out and take control of Malacca strait in the future ).

When Russia can control Malacca strait, then she don't need to sell oil to CN for money any more.

--------------------
The construction of an airbase by the Russian Aerospace Forces in Laos will change the situation in the region, especially the policies of China and the US.


The Russian military is trying to expand its presence in different countries around the world, thereby repelling the influence of the US and China, and increasing its dominance in the international arena.
.

According to information from officials in Laos' Xieng Khouang province, Russian military forces are checking an area of about 500 hectares in this province to see if it is suitable for building an air base. .

Russia's construction of an air base in Laos makes many countries "unsafe"

The construction of an airbase by the Russian Aerospace Forces in Laos will change the situation in the region, especially the policies of China and the US. The Russian military is trying to expand its presence in different countries around the world, thereby repelling the influence of the US...

defencehub.live

 

[Nilgiri]

Russia is building an air base in Laos now. The very clear purpose is to contain China (and maybe to kick US out and take control of Malacca strait in the future ).

When Russia can control Malacca strait, then she don't need to sell oil to CN for money any more.

--------------------
The construction of an airbase by the Russian Aerospace Forces in Laos will change the situation in the region, especially the policies of China and the US.


The Russian military is trying to expand its presence in different countries around the world, thereby repelling the influence of the US and China, and increasing its dominance in the international arena.
.

According to information from officials in Laos' Xieng Khouang province, Russian military forces are checking an area of about 500 hectares in this province to see if it is suitable for building an air base. .

Russia's construction of an air base in Laos makes many countries "unsafe"

The construction of an airbase by the Russian Aerospace Forces in Laos will change the situation in the region, especially the policies of China and the US. The Russian military is trying to expand its presence in different countries around the world, thereby repelling the influence of the US...

defencehub.live

Interesting bro... do you think in future cam ranh will be leased again to any friend of Vietnam?

 

[Viva_vietnamm]

Interesting bro... do you think in future cam ranh will be leased again to any friend of Vietnam?

No, I don't think our Cam Ranh will be lease again, it will make CN-US worry and may collude to sanction VN again like in 1979, but we build the railway from Vung Ang port of VN to Laos to help Russia transfer faster the weapons/ jet fighters from Russia to her air base in Laos

-------------------------

Hanoi (VNA) - Construction of a railway linking Vientiane with the Vung Ang seaport in Vietnam’s central Ha Tinh province is expected to begin in November, the Vientiane Times reported, quoting an investor involved in the project.

According to the newspaper, the railway, estimated to cost 5 billion USD, is a proposed line that the Lao and Vietnamese governments have agreed to jointly develop. It would enable landlocked Laos to access the deep seaport - the closest feasible seaport to Vientiane.

Chairman of the Board of Directors of Petroleum Trading Lao Public Company (PetroTrade), Chanthone Sitthixay, told the Lao National Assembly Chairman Xaysomphone Phomvihane, recently that a feasibility study on the 554km railway has been completed.

The Vientiane Times said the NA leader was briefed on the project during a working tour to the Thanaleng Dry Port and Vientiane Logistics Park in Vientiane, which is also part of the Lao Logistics Link.

The railway is part of the Lao Logistics Link project that PetroTrade - a subsidiary company of PTL Holding Company Limited - was given the green light to partner with the Lao and Vietnamese governments to develop.

The Lao developer is about to submit the results of a feasibility study on the section of railway that passes through Laos to the Ministry of Public Works and Transport for approval.

Meanwhile, a Vietnamese state enterprise has been hired to carry out a feasibility study on the section of the railway in Vietnam. The study is expected to be complete in June and will then be submitted to Vietnam’s National Assembly for approval in the middle of this year.

The railway will directly connect the cargo markets of Thailand and Myanmar with the Vung Ang Port, which is well positioned to serve as a gateway between central Vietnam, central Laos, and northeastern Thailand.

The railway is also set to link with the Laos-China Railway and onwards to the interconnected rail network that could reach European markets.

Work on Vientiane-Vung Ang railway expected to start in November

Illustrative image (Source: phnompenhpost.com) Hanoi (VNA) - Construction of a railway linking Vientiane with the Vung Ang seaport in Vietnam’s central Ha Tinh province is expected to begin in November, the Vientiane Times reported, quoting an investor involved in the project. According to the...

defence.pk

 

[Blackbeardsgoldfish]

What Taiwan provides to China (and the world at large more broadly) is also huge....

It is for example the literal single failure point for immense amount of processors/chips etc (especially at the highest tiers).

That adds a huge amount of deterrence to keeping status quo....for all sides that cannot afford such a golden goose to be upset or even destroyed....given the extremely long time to develop anything like that again, anywhere.

PRC really cannot risk doing something by absolute force for quite a long time.

Couldn't this also be used as a bargaining chip in China's favour? Either Taiwan rejoins the mainland, or the entire world will experience an increase in price and regression in chip technology? China will suffer under this just the same, sure, but couldn't this be seen as a credible threat to the rest?

 

[Paro]

Couldn't this also be used as a bargaining chip in China's favour? Either Taiwan rejoins the mainland, or the entire world will experience an increase in price and regression in chip technology? China will suffer under this just the same, sure, but couldn't this be seen as a credible threat to the rest?

Its just matter of time. US seeks to increase chip fabrication to the same level as Taiwan soon. There are already 6 new rare earth facilities in works only in the US not considering Australia and others. Most probably these will be operational by 2024 projected to own upto 25% of the world rare metals production capacity.

 

[Blackbeardsgoldfish]

Its just matter of time. US seeks to increase chip fabrication to the same level as Taiwan soon. There are already 6 new rare earth facilities in works only in the US not considering Australia and others. Most probably these will be operational by 2024 projected to own upto 25% of the world rare metals production capacity.

Will the US manage to get that going until then though? All six facilities will be up and running by 2024, and they will actually compete with TSMC in semiconductor tech?