This below is a statement from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and they claim the attack on the US forces deployed at Ain Al-Asad base. If any US casualties come, they will come in result of a large scale, coordinated, Iraq based paramilitary strike. If Iran really wants to cause damage to the US forces in Iraq, I am sure that the strike will involve more than the number of ballistic missiles stated by various sources. These are just harsh messages.
No matter the results, it is a fact that the tension is getting higher with every day that is passing and eventually we will witness either a full withdrawal of the US forces from Iraq and later Syria or Iran will take the biggest military blow in its modern history. By a military blow you can read it as both blow to Iranian conventional military capabilities and paramilitary ones. The Iraqi Government knows very well what are the consequences of the situation for Iraq so the Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani wants an immediate withdrawal of US forces from Iraq with timetable included.
Intelligence pointed at increased paramilitary activity, moving more sophisticated weapons in preparation for attacks against US forces in Iraq so I expect that the situation will only escalate.
View attachment 64907
The problem from a Turkish perspective is that the US forces at Ain Al-Asad have partly a guarantor state for the security of KRG and mainly KDP. If the US leaves Iraq, then KDP will be more vulnerable so they will need a new daddy. You can guess who they will call first...
Till now we were able to use them for our interests without committing much of our forces on the ground to their security as the US forces in the area acted as a balancing factor, but I am sure that if the US forces leave we will be forced to increase our footprint in the north of Iraq and take a clear stance opposing Iran's position on important issues regarding the north of Iraq and we will have to become a side in all of this while the success of our diplomacy is that without taking a side we benefit from all of the actors a bit and also take damage by all of the actors a bit. We are moving between the drops.
If we want to coexist in peace with the Iranians in Iraq, we would have to press KDP to cut ties and freeze the KDP-I project and I am sure that non of the Barzanis will be happy no matter if in Iraq or Iran. This will also mean that we could lose a potential tool for pressure and covert actions in Iran based on the Kurdish cause (a cover).
I will be the happiest person to see the US forces leaving Iraq if I knew that our guys can fill the vacuum, but judging by previous experiences unfortunately our guys are still too lame for this. We lack the proactive approach when it comes to unconventional warfare means, also we still lack the deterrence of our conventional miliatry force so we can deal with Iran in Iraq and pull the strings according to our vision for the region. Yes, we have some minor victories against them in the north of Syria, but the level of our game and the level of their game is not even comparable. While Iran worked for 40 years towards the paramilitary capabilities they currently possess, so they can be a deterrent force across the Middle East, pulling the strings for their interests, we were dealing with coups, fake trials, FETO so we can be the perfect US extension. Everything positive in the period till 2013 came in result of US supported policies aimed at limiting Sovyet, Communist, Russian or any other US enemy capabilities putting Turkish interests on second place. While we got limited benefits from these policies, we took all the damage under US protectorate including missing chances of strategic importance that wouldn't come again in 20-30 years. Yes, we came a long way especially from 2016 till now in the regard of putting Turkish interests first, activating our tactical potential towards achieving of our pre-determined strategic goals, but I fear that the timing of all this happening is not the best for us. I think Turkiye is still not ready for the big change. Regardless of my opinion on the situation we will understand if Turkiye is really ready or not very soon. I hope everything goes smooth and I am positively surprised. May Allah protects our great Nation and State!
Such an organization can not exist without the knowledge of the Egyptian authorities. For now I would read the statements of attacks just as claims (officially the incident was reported as attempted smuggling). We will learn very soon if they are a real deal or just a voice. We witnessed the formation of such organizations in Syria before so I think it would be wise to wait a bit more so we can talk for sure.
