Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[Relic]

Hezbollah acknowledges that Qubaisi got whacked.

Heard an interesting thought from a Lebanese-migrant colleague today, that the Lebanese government/military should seize this opportunity, call up Netanyahu and team up to stomp Hezbollah out completely. Never going to happen of course, but I guess if the argument is supposedly "Hezbollah is not Lebanon, Lebanon is not Hezbollah", it's a hard proposition to argue against, makes sense. If they're such this thorn in your side and the country-as-a-whole doesn't agree with/support them, then yeah, now's your chance to come at them with actual backup.

Hezbollah, understandably is trying to avoid all out, large scale war. They are in a tough place because if they do launch a massive missile barrage against Israel that overwhelms their air defense structure and leads to any kind of mass casualty event, not only will Israel respond by unleashing hell on Lebanon from unchallenged skies, but it will draw USA into the war. Between 2 Carrier Battlegroups and dozens of relocated land based air assets, the United States has enough air based assets in the region to compliment the IAF and bring substantial destruction to vast portions of southern Lebanon, virtually unchallenged. An isolated, effective strike on one or two Israeli cities might mean the destruction of half a country that Hezbollah calls home.

That's a tough place to be in. You don't want to seem weak, but you also don't want USA to have a "defensive" excuse to join the war... Because guess what? Iran isn't coming to the rescue of their proxy if USA gets involved and F-35s and F-22s fill the skies above Lebanon, while Arleigh Burkes and nuclear powered submarines lurk off the coast... Iran is going to pretend they don't even know who Hezbollah is in that scenario.

 

[SilverMachine]

I have to give nasrallah a credits here . For all of his shortcoming and divergent ideas . For sure he is a shrewd and brilliant strategist . I admit that i couldn't be as smart and patients as him ...
Many will lose their cools and start to leash out when you got a heavy casualties in their rank which in turn could only make you vulnerable and show a weakness to exploited further in ...but , no ....he is biting the bullets never fails upon Israelis taunts and bluffs and persistenly marching on his own pace . Incrementally leveling the tempos and dictates the dynamic of northern front skirmishes who are really ..really start to be felt and experienced by Israelis civilian ( debatable allright ) right now .
It's was Israelis who backed in the corner right now . After another diminishing leverages and means . Hizbo are still digging in and thriving ... Waiting for the overeager and anxious israelis reservist to jump on their preapared gauntlet of misery ...
And boy ....wouldn't that be a sight ...

...*Laughs* That's quite a take, man. Pretty sure most of the world isn't seeing the Israeli's as being the ones with their back to the wall here. Nasrallah's underground hiding somewhere, the reason he's not striking back with "apocalyptic thunder!" or whatever flowery language he usually uses is very simple - he can't. They've done what they can, and unless Israel's unwise enough to roll the tanks in so Hezbollah grunts can ambush them with tank-killers, Hezbollah's played their hand already. If this stays an air campaign - which it should - the IDF holds all the cards.

Relic, yes, that's sort of the point. The US & British forces are there more for Iran than Hezbollah though, nobody's all that worried about Hezbollah beyond a commitment to keep the Iron Dome re-stocked for the foreseeable future. And let's be honest, Iran isn't coming to Hezbollah's aid *even if* the US doesn't get involved and it's just Israel. If Iran could retaliate in any practicality for what went down a month ago inside their own borders, they would have already.

I really think this is as simple as "Hezbollah talks a big game, but they were always snake-oil salesmen from the start". The rocket batteries existed, that part was true, but they were far easier to take out in a real-world situation than expected, and unless the IDF gives them an opportunity to use their tunnel network & anti-tank rockets at close range, they're basically not half the military force that was claimed. At the end of the day, this was always an army of guys in pickup trucks with scary flags & slogans, not much else. If that assessment is wrong, they really need to put up or shut up.

 

[TR_123456]

Monocultures survive and make mutlicultural ones extinct.For this reason alone Sky Picot created Lebanon as a broken mutli cultural state and why Arab world divided into 100 diffferent states.

Strengh comes from unity.
Multi-headed hydra will spent its days discussing which head is boss instead of focusing what is important : Surviving!
Thats why abrahamic religions survived thousands of years!

You're wrong,its about independent thinking,questioning etc.
''Strength comes from unity'' yes but not what you think it is.
This only goes if all the different( politics,race,institutions be it state or private,thinkers etc) people come together for the country.
Sheep dont bring the country forward,think about it.

 

[TR_123456]

...*Laughs* That's quite a take, man. Pretty sure most of the world isn't seeing the Israeli's as being the ones with their back to the wall here

You sure about that?
What has Israel achieved with Gaza?
The West lost its credibility,how long do you think it will be able to protect Israel from the ''Muslim'' countries and the rest of the world waiting for every opportunity to harm Israel be it politcal or militarily.
You are right on Iran and Hezbollah though,just paperclips(not even tigers).

 

[SilverMachine]

Achieved with Gaza? I'd say quite a lot, looking at it from here. All the Hamas leaders bar Sinwar are gone, military capacity's down to basically nil, at the cost of the usual bluster from regional enemies whose position was already "we aim to wipe you from the face of the planet" beforehand anyhow. Status quo's the same in that regard.

And yeah, I'm pretty certain the West can back up their claims about being able to back up Israel if it comes to that. Again, if that calculation were wrong, it would have been proven wrong already, plenty of people out there claiming to want to wipe out Israel and...you know...haven't. Due to not being able to, not much more to it.

 

[Afif]

Achieved with Gaza? I'd say quite a lot, looking at it from here. All the Hamas leaders bar Sinwar are gone, military capacity's down to basically nil,

Netanyahu says ‘victory’ over Hamas is in sight. The data tells a different story

Hamas is resurging in areas of Gaza “cleared” by Israel, forensic analyses show. Experts say the bombing campaign has accelerated their comeback.

www.cnn.com

 

[Ravager]

...*Laughs* That's quite a take, man. Pretty sure most of the world isn't seeing the Israeli's as being the ones with their back to the wall here. Nasrallah's underground hiding somewhere, the reason he's not striking back with "apocalyptic thunder!" or whatever flowery language he usually uses is very simple - he can't. They've done what they can, and unless Israel's unwise enough to roll the tanks in so Hezbollah grunts can ambush them with tank-killers, Hezbollah's played their hand already. If this stays an air campaign - which it should - the IDF holds all the cards.

Relic, yes, that's sort of the point. The US & British forces are there more for Iran than Hezbollah though, nobody's all that worried about Hezbollah beyond a commitment to keep the Iron Dome re-stocked for the foreseeable future. And let's be honest, Iran isn't coming to Hezbollah's aid *even if* the US doesn't get involved and it's just Israel. If Iran could retaliate in any practicality for what went down a month ago inside their own borders, they would have already.

I really think this is as simple as "Hezbollah talks a big game, but they were always snake-oil salesmen from the start". The rocket batteries existed, that part was true, but they were far easier to take out in a real-world situation than expected, and unless the IDF gives them an opportunity to use their tunnel network & anti-tank rockets at close range, they're basically not half the military force that was claimed. At the end of the day, this was always an army of guys in pickup trucks with scary flags & slogans, not much else. If that assessment is wrong, they really need to put up or shut up.

Don't count your chicken before it's hatched man . History has taught me that simple life lesson .
Afganistan story are still fresh in our mind after all ..
That is all i can say ...

It's a long game for all the party involved . And we moslems do have all the time in the world after all ..

You sure about that?
What has Israel achieved with Gaza?
The West lost its credibility,how long do you think it will be able to protect Israel from the ''Muslim'' countries and the rest of the world waiting for every opportunity to harm Israel be it politcal or militarily.
You are right on Iran and Hezbollah though,just paperclips(not even tigers).

Even with all of their empty chest tumping and bluster ... I sincerely believes they had something meaningfull ..
Only idiots that would eager to come blow to blow directly with the superpower .... There is a difference between brave and suicidal .
It was a long game after all ...

 

[TR_123456]

Don't count your chicken before it's hatched man . History has taught me that simple life lesson .
Afganistan story are still fresh in our mind after all ..
That is all i can say ...

It's a long game for all the party involved . And we moslems do have all the time in the world after all ..



Even with all of their empty chest tumping and bluster ... I sincerely believes they had something meaningfull ..
Only idiots that would eager to come blow to blow directly with the superpower .... There is a difference between brave and suicidal .
It was a long game after all ...

I havent seen anything meaningfull coming from Iran or Hezbollah or any other country regarding Gaza.
All they( GCC and other Arab countries) had to do was to call a red line and attack,the US couldnt have done shit.
But as the whole world knows,the Arab leaders are chickenshits.

 

[SilverMachine]

Don't count your chicken before it's hatched man . History has taught me that simple life lesson .
Afganistan story are still fresh in our mind after all ..
That is all i can say ...

It's a long game for all the party involved . And we moslems do have all the time in the world after all ..



Even with all of their empty chest tumping and bluster ... I sincerely believes they had something meaningfull ..
Only idiots that would eager to come blow to blow directly with the superpower .... There is a difference between brave and suicidal .
It was a long game after all ...

Afghanistan?

It's not like the Taliban had some resurgence and were more powerful/competent/threatening than expected or anything, man. The Taliban came back to power because the US left, plain and simple, it's not like they drove the superpower out. The Taliban couldn't do shit to Kabul while the coalition was there - chickens counted.

 

[Rooxbar]

Israel had the highest rate of venture capital investment per person in 2021 in the world, and since 2018 high-tech sector accounted for close to 50% of GDP growth in Israel. 53% of Israeli exports derived primarily from software companies. These numbers were all results of exponential growth from after Trump's election, in anticipation of and then ensuing the atmosphere of "peace" and "reliability" created by Abraham Accords, heavily reliant upon western investment. Good luck maintaining that image now.

 

[Ravager]

I havent seen anything meaningfull coming from Iran or Hezbollah or any other country regarding Gaza.
All they( GCC and other Arab countries) had to do was to call a red line and attack,the US couldnt have done shit.
But as the whole world knows,the Arab leaders are chickenshits.

While i wholly agree with the sentiment . We are a merely a bystander and spectator .... Unlike Us . Nasrallah has to make a very deep calculation with whatever means he has .....which in turn are limited in scope .
And yet , even with such limititations he still making the Israelis to pause and think thrice before venturing inside the lebanon propers .
Even Israelis are realized they will get tormented badly in the hezbo's lairs . And no sane Hezbo commander are eager to make a suicidal infiltration into the Israelis ground .
The taunting's game are still on ... And Israelis are getting a smaller and smaller option before they have to commited their reservist into the meat grinder ....

Afghanistan?

It's not like the Taliban had some resurgence and were more powerful/competent/threatening than expected or anything, man. The Taliban came back to power because the US left, plain and simple, it's not like they drove the superpower out. The Taliban couldn't do shit to Kabul while the coalition was there - chickens counted.

And please enlighten me the plebian here on why they have to leave then ?? The enough dividen profits ?? Miss the old homie burgers ?? Or they somehow they realized that it was unsustainable ?? ....please , share us your wisdom then ...

 

[SilverMachine]

They left because public sentiment wasn't there. 20 years, there hadn't been a major attack at home in years, and nobody cared anymore. It happens.

That's quite different to what you seem to be suggesting, that the Taliban was a more potent military force on the ground than expected or whatever. ISIS were punks in pickup trucks that were curbstomped the second they came up against their first non-civilians, Hamas was never much better. Hezbollah, whilst clearly having some degree of training and the money-feed from Daddy Iran, I think by now has basically been shown to not be able to back up their bluster either. They're great for popping out of tunnels and bazooking a tank here or there, they're competent with small-arms ambush attacks and such.

But evidently, when the enemy's learned from their mistake last time and are no longer like "these are just some untrained clowns with AKs" in underestimation, the enemy takes them down pretty swiftly & decisively.

If I'm wrong, I guess Tel Aviv will be burning in a month, cats & dogs living together, pure chaos. ...But I'm thinking I'm not wrong. Hezbollah will do nothing, because they can do nothing. At least of consequence, more than kidnapping a private here and there or claiming a tank or three.

 

[Ravager]

They left because public sentiment wasn't there. 20 years, there hadn't been a major attack at home in years, and nobody cared anymore. It happens.

That's quite different to what you seem to be suggesting, that the Taliban was a more potent military force on the ground than expected or whatever. ISIS were punks in pickup trucks that were curbstomped the second they came up against their first non-civilians, Hamas was never much better. Hezbollah, whilst clearly having some degree of training and the money-feed from Daddy Iran, I think by now has basically been shown to not be able to back up their bluster either. They're great for popping out of tunnels and bazooking a tank here or there, they're competent with small-arms ambush attacks and such.

But evidently, when the enemy's learned from their mistake last time and are no longer like "these are just some untrained clowns with AKs" in underestimation, the enemy takes them down pretty swiftly & decisively.

If I'm wrong, I guess Tel Aviv will be burning in a month, cats & dogs living together, pure chaos. ...But I'm thinking I'm not wrong. Hezbollah will do nothing, because they can do nothing. At least of consequence, more than kidnapping a private here and there or claiming a tank or three.

I am making a serious question here . Did you really think any non state actors entity could simply go toe to toe with a discipline armies ( buffed by the superpower nonethenless ) in the open batle ground abd prevailed ?? Did you ??
Did you even understand the meaning of guerillas at all ??
Hamas , Hezbo and Taliban never need to win at all ... All they need is to survive . And survived they did against all the odds . Against the number one cyber tech nation in the world , a massive modern war machines and bankrolled by the sole superpower too....
A fair level playing field eh ...


Make no mistakes . I am no lover of Hezbos and Hamas . But , any bastard that were up against Israel occupation in the holy land and bleeding for it ...they deserved my support whole heartedly .

 

[SilverMachine]

Hezbollah "needs to" be a functional, credible proxy force of Iran's Shia group against Israel, if you want to get into that. That's their function, that's their purpose. To be a counter to Israel. To be able to hurt Israelis, inside Israel.

They've clearly displayed a complete incompetence at that this week. No idiot thinks Israel's going to wipe out every Hezbollah fighter, that everyone in the group is just going to disappear and the ideology will evaporate. That's also not the point. The point is, after being built up over 20 freakin' years as a formidable proxy force, they've failed and are back to near square one. Already. Half a week. There was nothing behind the big talk, at the end of the day. It's pretty easy to project an image of being a big scary adversary the Israelis really should think twice about engaging, but funny how it turns out you have to be able to substantiate that. They haven't and won't.

 

[YeşilVatan]

I expected Hezbollah to put up more of a fight, but they are getting ragdolled before the battle even started it seems. All of their vaunted missile arsenal amounts to sporadic and ineffective bombing of random places. Their high command got wiped out. And what did they achieve? Nothing.

Yet I still think Israel will be on the losing side strategically. My prediction is that their societal and demographic issues will turn into economic and security crisis in the medium term. Too many ultra-orthodox, too many Arabs, too few secular Jews who basically carry all the weight of the Israeli state. As their numbers dwindle, Israel will become more erratic, irrational ineffective and unproductive economically. This is a global problem because they have nukes.

My thoughts and prayers are with innocents who suffer through this, but it seems neutrality is the best path for my nation. We don't need this fight.

 

[Scott Summers]

How much money and goodwill did the US and Israel spend since 7 october?

And still Hamas and Hezbollah survived. Fresh recruits every day. Motivation, morale, antisemitism and fanatism are higher than ever in the MENA-region.

Start a ground operation in Lebanon, please.

Please.

 

[Huelague]

MENA-region.

Not only in MENA. In EU, too. Its only a matter of time, before a progrome will start.

 

[TR_123456]

It looks like Hasan Nasrallah the hezbollah leader is dead.

 

[Lool]

It looks like Hasan Nasrallah the hezbollah leader is dead.

Really hope so
I truly hated this hypocrite

 

[Scott Summers]

The killing of Nasrallah will trigger Iran, because he is their biggest pawn in this game.

And if Iran triggers something big, the US and UK will come to the rescue of Israel.

And Turkey will be surrounded by ships and troops and eventually take part this theatre of war.

It's 1914 again.

But this time Turkey will not stand on the wrong side.