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Nilgiri

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Maybe it includes the cost of some other service or goods which both governments don't want to disclose, during Laddak, US has provided real-time intelligence and intelligence is a costly affair.
@Nilgiri what you think F-18s will also get pushed to Navy

I dont see what additional use these UAVs add to that the military had to spend 3 billion. India already has around 200 UAVs with more than a 100 armed herons if im not wrong , maybe with not the same pay load capacity.

Not that these can survive inside either the Pakistan or Chinese airspace.

Global hawks make more sense they can be an additional leg to p8is in the IOR.

My guess is India is getting few drones but along with it some kind of communication equipment especially after signing the 3 foundational agreements last year. If you remember correctly NASAM3 price wasn’t really disclosed it only said 1 billion no info on how many missiles or launchers.

Let us wait and see what this drone deal even includes in any fine print that comes later.

I agree that it likely includes some comms related stuff I was mentioning earlier too.

That is probably why the taiwanese price was also jacked up to effectively 150 mil a drone....about 5 times the per drone cost. There is other systems involved.

US (and west) also often does this to make the case for further orders as then the one-time infra costs get more amortised.
 

Nilgiri

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@Nilgiri what you think F-18s will also get pushed to Navy

Only silver lining I see of F-18 or Rafale-M is that TEDBF is then clearly a non-starter and all those guys can instead be sent to MWF program and/or AMCA and (hopefully) accelerate those instead.

India has so many things in so many baskets, we dont have the money to acquire/commit to all these....it generates lot of babu drama though.
 

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JAMES GOLDRICK SUDARSHAN Y. SHRIKHANDE
Debates over naval policy need to be mounted with a full understanding of just what a nation needs to do at sea.

In recent years – and for good reason - the strategic commentariat in both Australia and India has become increasingly concerned with the rise of China’s maritime power and the potential threat that this development poses for both nations. How each nation should respond is a difficult problem, and it is an important debate which needs to be had. However, some otherwise thoughtful contributions have grave flaws in their arguments and the national actions they propose.

The key problem lies in repeated suggestions that India and Australia should each adopt a “sea denial” strategy to deter China and structure their maritime forces accordingly. This essentially simplistic approach is unsound. It firstly too often reflects a landsman’s idea of the world, confusing mechanisms for the domination of land areas with what is needed at sea.

The sea is a dynamic medium. It cannot be garrisoned. Although terms such as “sea control” and “sea denial” have the potential to mislead the inexperienced, neither relates to dominion over an area of water for its own sake, but to the ability to use (ie. control) or prevent the use of (deny) the sea.

Whether national tasks relate to sea denial, sea control or power projection, it is important not to confuse the instruments with their use.
These assessments are right to suggest that national force structures should be capable of denying China the use of the sea in either of our countries’ maritime approaches. However, the ability to achieve such a condition, while it may be necessary, will never be sufficient for either India or Australia. Both are maritime-dependent countries which cannot cleave purely to a sea denial strategy. Energy imports alone will require both the degree of sea control necessary to ensure safe passage of oil and gas, and for the continuing operation of each country’s armed forces. In Australia’s case, this will notably include the aviation fuel, which cannot presently be refined onshore.

Furthermore, both India and Australia need to maintain the capability to deploy intervention forces around their areas of direct strategic interest. Such “maritime power projection” is the third naval role, enabled by sea control. As the last 40 years have demonstrated, such interventions – which even in peacetime may span the gamut from disaster relief to preventing state failure – largely have to be made from and supported by sea operations.

Since China is perhaps the glue as well as the trigger for efforts at more effective maritime partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, it is important to understand the contexts of sea denial and sea control. Ironically, China is in much the same situation as India and Australia, albeit on a greater scale, but terms such as “anti-access, area denial” (A2AD) have served to muddy that picture. China looks to have geared itself well for A2AD within its first two island chains, but its intent, particularly within the first chain and increasingly further afield, is to achieve not only sea denial, but sea control. For this, China will use its navy, air and missile power and expeditionary capabilities all tied together with space and cyber instruments. In the back office, so to speak, is nuclear deterrence, to attempt to keep any conflict contained within the non-nuclear domain.

China would be very interested in continuing to “use” most if not all the Indian Ocean for its trade, and especially its energy flows. So would India and Australia. Thus, the underlying strategic drivers are about competing sea control, of which sea denial is a concomitant activity.

50622094198_3768bc4615_k%20copy.jpg
Ships from the Royal Australian Navy, Indian Navy, Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force and US Navy sail in formation during Exercise Malabar 2020 (US Pacific Fleet/Flickr)
The distinction becomes clearer with two cases from the Second World War. In the North Atlantic, Germany ran an intense, long, and hard-fought sea denial campaign using submarines, shore-based aircraft and even battleships (the surface raiders had limited success), while not having to use that ocean for themselves. The Allies, of course, desperately needed the Atlantic to ship supplies and reinforcements from the Americas, first to keep the United Kingdom alive and then to support the Soviet Union and mount a series of amphibious invasions of North Africa and Western Europe. In the Mediterranean, on the other hand, the Axis and the Allied powers both needed to have varying degrees of sea control through much of the war, in each case principally to support land campaigns in North Africa, even as they tried to deny use of the sea to each other.

Were a conflict to take place between China and India (or Australia, for that matter), “strategies of denial” would in fact be part of a multidimensional fight to compete for sea control. Thus, to deter a conflict from escalating into a larger one – and to fight effectively if events moved to a shooting war – a “balanced force” is vital. The term is much abused by both its proponents and its critics. But “balanced” does not describe a navy, or a whole defence force, which has “something of everything”. Rather, it means a force which not only provides the most possible options to government from the resources it makes available, but also effectively spans the full range of tasks on which first national survival and then key national interests depend. What creates that balance could be very contextual, but future sea power will demand a force that includes other dimensions, such as air, land, space and cyber, and not merely a balanced fleet.

Constantly changing technology only “deepens the mist which hangs over the next war”.
Whether national tasks relate to sea denial, sea control or power projection, it is important not to confuse the instruments with their use. The ongoing debate in India portrays two sides of a fallacious argument: that aircraft carriers are for sea control, while submarines are for sea denial. In Australia, the dichotomy can be presented as being between large surface combatants and smaller, potentially autonomous units. Yet a submarine, the classic tool of sea denial, can also contribute to sea control, acting as a barrier against enemy forces and preventing them closing with their intended targets. That control, in turn, can allow power projection as and where needed. Furthermore, submarines with land-attack missiles can project power in classical naval terms. At the extreme of power projection (and this is now the case for India), a ballistic missile submarine can serve as a strategic deterrent.

There are, and always have been, legitimate concerns over the form of naval force structures and the allocation of the available funds to particular capabilities. Constantly changing technology only “deepens the mist which hangs over the next war”, as maritime strategist Julian Corbett wrote of the potential of submarines more than a century ago. But debates over such aspects of naval policy need to be mounted only with a full understanding of just what a nation needs to do at sea.

For maritime nations such as Australia and India with many challenges and limited resources, that calls not only for great care in selecting the tools but a constant emphasis on achieving flexibility and utility across a range of contingencies.
 

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NEW DELHI: Keeping the China challenge squarely in their sights, the first summit meeting of the Quad — India, US, Japan and Australia — will take place virtually on Friday, the foreign ministry announced on Tuesday.
An official readout said the meeting of PM Narendra Modi, President Joe Biden, PM Yoshihide Suga and PM Scott Morrison will discuss everything from Covid vaccine supplies to climate change.

"The leaders will discuss regional and global issues of shared interest, and exchange views on practical areas of cooperation towards maintaining a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific region," the statement said.
This is diplomatese for the core discussion of the Quad — countering the aggressiveness of China in the Indo-Pacific region.

Interestingly, the Quad, which used to be known as the quadrilateral security dialogue, is now known as the quadrilateral framework to indicate it has gone beyond a narrow security dialogue. This will be the first Quad summit meeting since 2007.

The MEA statement added, "The summit will provide an opportunity to exchange views on contemporary challenges such as resilient supply chains, emerging and critical technologies, maritime security, and climate change."

Morrison has been pushing the summit, and Biden signalled early interest in both the Indo-Pacific and the Quad, and has moved fast to secure a summit early in his tenure. Biden spoke with Suga on January 27, Morrison on February 3 and Modi on February 8 to call this summit. Last week, Morrison was quoted as saying that Quad summits would become "regular". On February 18, US secretary of state Anthony Blinken initiated a virtual meeting of the Quad foreign ministers to prepare for this summit.

"This will become a feature of Indo-Pacific engagement," Morrison said last week of the Quad’s elevation. "I am looking forward to that first gathering of Quad leaders, the first-ever such gathering."

There is a possibility of informal Quad meetings on the sidelines of multilateral meetings post-pandemic. The first opportunity this year would be at the G7 summit in the UK, where India, Australia and South Korea are special invitees.

@AlphaMike
 

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Only silver lining I see of F-18 or Rafale-M is that TEDBF is then clearly a non-starter and all those guys can instead be sent to MWF program and/or AMCA and (hopefully) accelerate those instead.

India has so many things in so many baskets, we dont have the money to acquire/commit to all these....it generates lot of babu drama though.
I 100% agree on this, they should focus on imported aircraft of navy and focus on MWF and AMCA. Believe me 3 squadrons of either Rafale or F-18 will have a serious psychological impact on adversaries and will give us a decent breather to nurture the aeronautical ecosystem in country.
 

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I 100% agree on this, they should focus on imported aircraft of navy and focus on MWF and AMCA. Believe me 3 squadrons of either Rafale or F-18 will have a serious psychological impact on adversaries and will give us a decent breather to nurture the aeronautical ecosystem in country.

It depends how much of an actual link all these programs can double dip on what's already done with tejas.

If the double dip is strong and cohesive in critical areas and there is further broadening w.r.t production capacity in private sector...it could very well be cheaper for India at same delivery of power level along with extra strength going forward in the sector. Then opportunity cost dictates we save the forex for better use in something else we need to import (that we are not/have not developed).

But if it is weak, then its another babu paper producer esp given the window left to 5th/6th gen narrows with time....and it is definitely better to get an import here and consolidate the non-babus more diligently into the existing assured streams.

But nature of this (strong or weak, or somewhere in between) is more or less unknown now and above our paygrades to really put a solid guess on, we will have to see.

If India can research+design+produce aircraft and drones downroad (pretty much at will and in short time frame) like we do with say missiles and ships now....we are well set defence wise. Then capacities will just correlate more or less w.r.t funding/economy basically....rather than be too reliant on babu issues.
 

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The US aerospace Boeing Company is open to leasing KC-46tanker, a derivative of the Boeing 767 passenger aircraft to the Indian Air Force (IAF), which is seeking quotes for mid-air refuellers. Confirming this to Financial Express Online, in an exclusive interaction with Financial Express Online, Torbjorn Sjogren, VP, International Government & Defence, Boeing Global Services, said “We are in talks with the IAF for KC-46tanker. There is a requirement for air-to-air refuelling and we are working through certain issues. We are open to leasing these tankers. We already lease commercial aircraft to various domestic airlines in India; we understand there is provision for leasing military platforms in the Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP).”


Financial Express - Business News, Stock Market News



Advertisement


US aerospace giant Boeing offers KC-46 tankers to IAF! Dates announced for the US Def Sec visit to India​

By: Huma Siddiqui
Updated: Mar 11, 2021 5:46 PM

Japan, part of the Quad grouping which is meeting for the first Leaders summit virtually on Friday, is the KC-46 program’s first international customer.​


IAF which is facing a critical shortage of mid-refuellers is keen to lease at least two platforms to plug the gap. (Photos Credit: Boeing Company )
IAF which is facing a critical shortage of mid-refuellers is keen to lease at least two platforms to plug the gap. (Photos Credit: Boeing Company)
RELATED NEWS
The US aerospace Boeing Company is open to leasing KC-46tanker, a derivative of the Boeing 767 passenger aircraft to the Indian Air Force (IAF), which is seeking quotes for mid-air refuellers. Confirming this to Financial Express Online, in an exclusive interaction with Financial Express Online, Torbjorn Sjogren, VP, International Government & Defence, Boeing Global Services, said “We are in talks with the IAF for KC-46tanker. There is a requirement for air-to-air refuelling and we are working through certain issues. We are open to leasing these tankers. We already lease commercial aircraft to various domestic airlines in India; we understand there is provision for leasing military platforms in the Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP).”

KC-46 Tanker Vs Airbus
Comparing Boeing’s KC46 with the European aerospace major Airbus’ A330 Multi Role Tanker Transport (MRTT), Mr Sjogren, said, “There is a need for mid-air refuellers in India. What we are offering can operate out of both big and small airports. This means that operational cost will be less compared to others. Boeing’s KC-46 is more of a combat tanker.”
Interestingly, Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) will soon be having KC-46 tanker in service. Japan, part of the Quad grouping which is meeting for the first Leaders summit virtually on Friday, is the KC-46 program’s first international customer.

Unlike the Airbus’ MRTT which is a derivative of the twin-engine A330 passenger aircraft of Airbus, the KC-46 tanker has the ability to carry cargo and passengers and can be used in humanitarian relief efforts. The KC-46 refuelling certification encompasses US Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps and JASDF aircraft.

IAF which is facing a critical shortage of mid-refuellers is keen to lease at least two platforms to plug the gap. And for this it has sought financial quotes from Boeing and the European aerospace major Airbus. Leasing of two platforms is besides the IAF’s plan to acquire six mid-air refuellers.

More here


 

Nilgiri

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The strategic case for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, better known as the Quad, has always been sound. A rising China, with its authoritarian one-party system, is a challenge to the democratic order. It made sense, therefore, for democracies around China to pool their resources and strengths and present to the world a better and more sustainable model of governance.

The strategic case for the Quad has, however, always faced a tactical hurdle. China was the factory of the world. It had become an almost indispensable cog in the global supply chain owing to its low-cost manufacturing prowess at a mass scale. How could any grouping hope to challenge China’s power-play dynamics while at the same time being dependent on its factories to sustain its economies? It was exactly this dilemma that stunted the first iteration of the Quad soon after its birth in 2007. As long as there was no equivalent manufacturing destination to rival China, the case for an “arc of democracies” would remain confined to concept papers in think tanks.

But two recent developments have completely changed the dynamic. Australia returned to the Malabar Naval exercises in 2020, after 13 years. And on March 12, the first summit-level meet of the Quad — comprising the US, India, Japan and Australia — is scheduled to take place.


So, what has changed between 2007 and 2020 that Quad 2.0 has become viable? The answer is the globally visible rise in India’s manufacturing ability. Consider the following examples.

First, the success in PPE kits. At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, India was manufacturing zero PPE kits. As the world — including the developed economies — was scrambling to secure supplies from China, India not just created an overnight world-class manufacturing capacity to meet its own needs but also started exporting PPE kits. From zero to almost a million kits a day — the ability to scale was breathtaking. The same was the case with ventilators and other essential supplies, such as the drug HCQ.

Second, the soft power of Vaccine Maitri. While the developed countries are scrambling to secure vaccines for their domestic population, India is not only vaccinating its own people faster than any other country but is also exporting millions of vaccines to countries in need — and all through domestically-manufactured vaccines. From Canada to Pakistan and from the Caribbean Islands to Brazil — Made in India vaccines have been a life vest across the globe.

Third, the enterprise of India’s private industry — a hallmark of the deepening manufacturing base. As a recent New York Times report noted, when it came to syringes — without which the vaccines were useless — the global scramble again led to India and Hindustan Syringes & Medical Devices, among other manufactures. Hindustan Syringes alone has ramped up its manufacturing capacity to almost 6,000 syringes a minute!

Fourth, India’s success in precision high-end manufacturing. The PLI scheme launched for electronics’ manufacturing evinced unprecedented global interest with 22 top companies, including the top manufactures for Apple and Samsung mobile phones. Over the next five years, a manufacturing capacity of over $150 billion and exports of $100 billion have been tied up through this scheme.

Fifth, the success of India’s fourth-generation fighter jet programme and the orders placed by the Indian Air Force for 83 Tejas jets. Very few countries have the ability to indigenously manufacture such high-tech fighter planes and India’s success is one more milestone in its journey towards emerging as a global manufacturing destination.

Concurrently, India has been reforming its economic policies to make it even more attractive as a manufacturing destination. India has the lowest tax rate anywhere in the world — 15 per cent for new manufacturing units. FDI norms have been relaxed across the board and automatic approval processes instituted for FDI even up to 100 per cent. Privatisation of PSUs is now an established process. Labour laws have been finally reformed and compliance burdens significantly eased. Taxation is now faceless, thus ending the spectre of rent-seeking. A well-functioning, world-class bankruptcy law is in place. Interest rates are low. And India’s digital infrastructure rivals the best in the world and in many cases beats it.

All of this has enabled the world to envision India in a new light — as the new global manufacturing hub. All the benefits that China provided — quality, scale, speed, skilled manpower and a vast domestic market — are now operative for India but without the drawbacks of the Chinese model.

The only arrow that was missing in the quiver of the Quad has now been attained. The strategic case for the Quad was never in doubt. The dependence on China’s factories is what kept the grouping of democracies from emerging. India has raised its hand to solve that problem. Quad2.0 is now a viable global alliance. It’s no wonder that the Quad summit will be the first high-profile global meet that the new US president, Joe Biden, will be attending. The new world order post-COVID is being rewritten before our eyes and India, led by Prime Minister Narendra

Modi, is playing a leading role in establishing this order.


This article first appeared in the print edition on March 12, 2021 under the title ‘A factory for the Quad’. The writer is CEO, Bluekraft Digital Foundation and former director (content) MyGov.
 

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Overall a good take, uncleji spends way too long I feel repeating some points though heh. 10 minute video would have been enough imo.

One point I wouldn't have quite used in way it was done a few time ...is the comparison was with textile industry (w.r.t Britain/India colonisation + captive market).

The MVA extraction (esp w.r.t labour) by that was of far far greater significance than what happens with rare earths (which is not driven by labour costs but rather capital inertia/sink costs and ease-of-pollution costs etc).

This is crucial to not oversell the starkness of what is going on (w.r.t rare earths)....but I guess journalism operates a lot on this kind of thing in general.

Labour "underpricing"/"competitiveness" by PRC to maximise MVA (and VA in general) saturation is done through other ways....which India should have long learned from and implemented too....but only slowly doing.

@anmdt @Zapper
 

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As Quad takes a leap forward, India is deepening space ties with the U.S., Japan and Australia -- the other three member nations of the group. Known as the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue", the Quad grouping held its first virtual summit last week.

The four countries plan to establish a series of working groups that will focus on climate change; critical and emerging technologies, including working to set technology standards and norms and jointly developing some of the critical technologies of the future.

(More at link)
 

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LOL, he bought the Doomsday plane for a foreign trip. That's some creepy shit.

The E4As and E6Bs have never flown outside the states on diplomatic missions afaik. The US has a fleet for 7 airforce two's to carry around the vice president and The top chain of commands.

Anyways the doomsday planes are being replaced with c130s soon so it doesn't matter anymore.
 
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long read....

""On June 15, 2020, Indian and Chinese troops engaged in a brawl that left twenty Indian soldiers dead while causing an unspecified number of Chinese casualties. The clash is a part of a broader border standoff along the Galwan River between the two forces on the Line of Actual Control that is yet to be resolved. The Indian strategic community is broadly in agreement that this border dispute marks an implacable decline in India-China ties. They argue that the very basis of relations that emerged after former Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to Beijing in 1988 has been shaken, if not destroyed. Yet, how did the two countries manage to reach this nadir in ties, and furthermore, what does the Galwan clash signify for the future of Sino-Indian relations?

This paper argues that, long before the present border dispute occurred, Sino-Indian relations had been steadily declining due to rampant misperceptions of the other side, contributing to a lack of trust. The most fundamental misperception between the two countries is the inability to comprehend each other’s international ambitions, yielding the fear that their foreign policies are targeted against the other. This paper traces the impact and development of these misperceptions on Sino-Indian ties through three different phases before considering the future of the relationship after the Galwan dispute""
https://carnegieindia.org/2021/03/11/india-china-road-from-galwan-event-7575
 

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China has been actively facilitating Pakistan’s nuclear weapons proliferation in violation of its international commitments, with extensive operations being run through Pakistan’s embassy in Beijing, according to multiple, high-level, foreign intelligence sources.

The Klaxon has obtained a highly-detailed intelligence dossier detailing China’s heavily increased involvement in advancing Pakistan’s nuclear warfare capabilities, with top-level intelligence sources warning the illicit transfers were now occurring with “sheer audacity”.

It is alleged the transfers are being orchestrated via the Scientific Affairs Division of the Pakistan embassy in Beijing, involve the illegal advancement of Pakistan’s “weapons-related nuclear and missile programme”, and put China in contravention of its international agreements.

Senior intelligence sources have also named a China-based Pakistani businessman, Syed Ummar Ali Bukhari, as allegedly being a key figure in the operations.


@Nilgiri @Milspec @Zapper @Jackdaws
 

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China has been actively facilitating Pakistan’s nuclear weapons proliferation in violation of its international commitments, with extensive operations being run through Pakistan’s embassy in Beijing, according to multiple, high-level, foreign intelligence sources.

The Klaxon has obtained a highly-detailed intelligence dossier detailing China’s heavily increased involvement in advancing Pakistan’s nuclear warfare capabilities, with top-level intelligence sources warning the illicit transfers were now occurring with “sheer audacity”.

It is alleged the transfers are being orchestrated via the Scientific Affairs Division of the Pakistan embassy in Beijing, involve the illegal advancement of Pakistan’s “weapons-related nuclear and missile programme”, and put China in contravention of its international agreements.

Senior intelligence sources have also named a China-based Pakistani businessman, Syed Ummar Ali Bukhari, as allegedly being a key figure in the operations.


@Nilgiri @Milspec @Zapper @Jackdaws

Seems this journalist/publication has had a number of run-ins with these inside scoops (involving these two) before.

Wonder what the various intel agencies know and are monitoring at this point.
 

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China has been actively facilitating Pakistan’s nuclear weapons proliferation in violation of its international commitments, with extensive operations being run through Pakistan’s embassy in Beijing, according to multiple, high-level, foreign intelligence sources.

The Klaxon has obtained a highly-detailed intelligence dossier detailing China’s heavily increased involvement in advancing Pakistan’s nuclear warfare capabilities, with top-level intelligence sources warning the illicit transfers were now occurring with “sheer audacity”.

It is alleged the transfers are being orchestrated via the Scientific Affairs Division of the Pakistan embassy in Beijing, involve the illegal advancement of Pakistan’s “weapons-related nuclear and missile programme”, and put China in contravention of its international agreements.

Senior intelligence sources have also named a China-based Pakistani businessman, Syed Ummar Ali Bukhari, as allegedly being a key figure in the operations.


@Nilgiri @Milspec @Zapper @Jackdaws
Pakistan's entire nuke program has been utterly China dependent right from the onset. In reality Pakistan doesn't have a scientific base - whether it is universities, research institutes etc.
 

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China has been actively facilitating Pakistan’s nuclear weapons proliferation in violation of its international commitments, with extensive operations being run through Pakistan’s embassy in Beijing, according to multiple, high-level, foreign intelligence sources.

The Klaxon has obtained a highly-detailed intelligence dossier detailing China’s heavily increased involvement in advancing Pakistan’s nuclear warfare capabilities, with top-level intelligence sources warning the illicit transfers were now occurring with “sheer audacity”.

It is alleged the transfers are being orchestrated via the Scientific Affairs Division of the Pakistan embassy in Beijing, involve the illegal advancement of Pakistan’s “weapons-related nuclear and missile programme”, and put China in contravention of its international agreements.

Senior intelligence sources have also named a China-based Pakistani businessman, Syed Ummar Ali Bukhari, as allegedly being a key figure in the operations.


@Nilgiri @Milspec @Zapper @Jackdaws
Eyewash, Like this, was not known, for years now China has been doing this. China has a simple strategy to contain India.
 
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