Canada Air-Force RCAF Legacy Hornet replacement program

[Nilgiri]

I’ve recently seen this at some media outlets and social media but I only take it seriously because of the poster, Mr. Arda Mevlütoğlu, a well respected defense analyst.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989676206720160118

“By the way, @saab is in talks with Canadian Bombardier for the licensed production of the Gripen. The Gripen was being proposed to Canada instead of the F-35. It is claimed that production here is also planned to be carried out for Ukraine.”

@Nilgiri et al
It seems that Saab is eager for such a deal but will Canada reciprocate Swedish will, considering they snoozed off the decision for quite a while in regards to sour relations in Trump era?

A look into the matters right now:

Canada’s battle of the fighter jets: F-35 vs the Gripen

Everything you need to know about the F-35 and Gripen fighter jets.

ottawacitizen.com

I personally think the F-35 faction will win out in the end, especially since:

- Canada is commited to the 16 (out of the earlier 88 total thats put on hold, that DND is pausing the report on proceeding with given the Trump issues i.e sovereignty blabbing and tarrifs etc)

- Existing industrial partnerships (SAAB is offering a new one, but it is fresh out of the block compared to the long term one Canada has forged with LM and its partners already in operation)

- NORAD, yes the Gripen is a NATO operated platform and Sweden itself has now joined NATO.....but there is simply another scale of dividend with being closely operable with the USAF given the scale of what the F-35 is, and how it will be taken forward to 6th Gen etc.

The Gripen would have made much more sense much earlier acquisition wise as a straight 1:1 replacement for the legacy hornets. i.e to have squadron bulk assured for the 2030s etc. i.e that window when superhornet and rafale etc also came into contention when F-35 "Cost issue" reshaped that program back in late 2000s and early 2010s.

Then have a 5G program separate to it, where the F-35 is natural contender and it then becomes a straight open/shut case of relations with US to take that forward. But Canada has been deficient on military spending w.r.t NATO levels (PM Carney is only addressing this now) that adds to all the time wasted and in-clarity. i.e this approach needed a much earlier commitment by Canada to raise defence to 2% of GDP and then 3% etc to support an (optimal) dual acquisition. Canada also could not have foreseen Trump 2nd term taking these contours it has...nothing to suggest it from trump first term.

Well we can only wait and see how the relationship goes in the coming months, what (stupidity) Trump will move away from and give pre-existing relationship to take shape again.

 

[Ripley]

A look into the matters right now:

Canada’s battle of the fighter jets: F-35 vs the Gripen

Everything you need to know about the F-35 and Gripen fighter jets.

ottawacitizen.com

I personally think the F-35 faction will win out in the end, especially since:

- Canada is commited to the 16 (out of the earlier 88 total thats put on hold, that DND is pausing the report on proceeding with given the Trump issues i.e sovereignty blabbing and tarrifs etc)

- Existing industrial partnerships (SAAB is offering a new one, but it is fresh out of the block compared to the long term one Canada has forged with LM and its partners already in operation)

- NORAD, yes the Gripen is a NATO operated platform and Sweden itself has now joined NATO.....but there is simply another scale of dividend with being closely operable with the USAF given the scale of what the F-35 is, and how it will be taken forward to 6th Gen etc.

The Gripen would have made much more sense much earlier acquisition wise as a straight 1:1 replacement for the legacy hornets. i.e to have squadron bulk assured for the 2030s etc. i.e that window when superhornet and rafale etc also came into contention when F-35 "Cost issue" reshaped that program back in late 2000s and early 2010s.

Then have a 5G program separate to it, where the F-35 is natural contender and it then becomes a straight open/shut case of relations with US to take that forward. But Canada has been deficient on military spending w.r.t NATO levels (PM Carney is only addressing this now) that adds to all the time wasted and in-clarity. i.e this approach needed a much earlier commitment by Canada to raise defence to 2% of GDP and then 3% etc to support an (optimal) dual acquisition. Canada also could not have foreseen Trump 2nd term taking these contours it has...nothing to suggest it from trump first term.

Well we can only wait and see how the relationship goes in the coming months, what (stupidity) Trump will move away from and give pre-existing relationship to take shape again.

Thanks for clarifying one more time where Canada stands At this point.
Most people, are not aware of the fact that Canada and USA kinda interwoven at defense of North America.
Guess wait and see is the name of the game.
Oh, and btw, you’re right. His first term was not as harassing as his current one.

 

[Nilgiri]

I merged the newer thread with the older pinned thread.

======================================================

Leaked F-35 scorecard sparks political turbulence in Ottawa

A leaked Department of National Defence document comparing the F-35 and Gripen fighter jets is adding tension to Ottawa’s still-unresolved decision. Read on

winnipegsun.com

The internal chart shows the U.S.-built F-35 significantly outperforming Sweden’s Gripen across multiple military and technical categories.

Canadians say selecting the best fighter jet for the job matters more than jobs: Nanos

As the Canadian government reviews its commitment to purchase American-made Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, a new poll shows what Canadians think should be prioritized in procuring replacements to the aging CF-18s.

www.ctvnews.ca

Asked what was most important to them, 40 per cent of those surveyed said having the fighter jet that is the best solution for the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF). Another 28 per cent said picking the jet that generates the greatest number of Canadian jobs.

“What this shows is that if the government decides to change tact, it’s actually going to have to explain why,” said Nanos Research chief data scientist Nik Nanos.

(More at links)

 

[Ripley]

I merged the newer thread with the older pinned thread.

======================================================

Leaked F-35 scorecard sparks political turbulence in Ottawa

A leaked Department of National Defence document comparing the F-35 and Gripen fighter jets is adding tension to Ottawa’s still-unresolved decision. Read on

winnipegsun.com

The internal chart shows the U.S.-built F-35 significantly outperforming Sweden’s Gripen across multiple military and technical categories.

Canadians say selecting the best fighter jet for the job matters more than jobs: Nanos

As the Canadian government reviews its commitment to purchase American-made Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, a new poll shows what Canadians think should be prioritized in procuring replacements to the aging CF-18s.

www.ctvnews.ca

Asked what was most important to them, 40 per cent of those surveyed said having the fighter jet that is the best solution for the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF). Another 28 per cent said picking the jet that generates the greatest number of Canadian jobs.

“What this shows is that if the government decides to change tact, it’s actually going to have to explain why,” said Nanos Research chief data scientist Nik Nanos.

(More at links)

The opposing Canadian politicians’ argument that this much money going out without any domestic jobs gain sounds more than financial concerns. I think this is more of a political stand off with Trump and show of resolution. My two cents.

 

[oldcpu]

I suspect current politics of the current US administration in terms of tariffs on Canada will make it increasingly difficult for Canada to proceed down the F-35 route for all 88-fighter aircraft. While the tariffs are not on the F-35 procurement, the surrounding US tariffs on other aspects of Canadian export goods to USA is muddying the waters. The possibility of a mixed air wings of 16-F-35s and 72 Gripen (together with 6 global eye AEW aircraft) is going to look more and more attractive to Canadian politicians, as US rhetoric gets louder and louder against Canada. What was once a clear 88 F35 acquisition for Canada, is being made more obscure by the day, due to US politician and diplomat statements.

 

[mehmed beg]

I don't see why would Canada get Gripen, Typhoon is much better choice. Longer range which is important as Canada is huge country, more choice of the weapons , European engines, security of 2 engines . Global Eye is very good choice, the only thing is that the workload on smaller crews is pretty big but it is still good choice

 

[oldcpu]

I don't see why would Canada get Gripen, Typhoon is much better choice. Longer range which is important as Canada is huge country, more choice of the weapons , European engines, security of 2 engines . Global Eye is very good choice, the only thing is that the workload on smaller crews is pretty big but it is still good choice

one word: "cost".

It is 'cost' that is causing the consideration to reduce the F-35 purchase to 16-aircraft. The Typhoon is more expensive by far than the Gripen.

Note this is only under consideration. It is not approved. Maybe with the Canadian plan to increase the defence budget to 2% of GDP ,and eventually to 3.5% of GDP for hard core military aspects, that the F35 program will survive as is. However the current US political rhetoric is making this difficult for the RCAF to stay with the F35.

 

[uçuyorum]

There is talk of production in Canada as well, EF doesn't have that option. Partnership with saab could open a pathway for more independent fighter production in the future for Canada. So after gripen, they may co-develop the successor as well, bombardier, l3 harris and PW, CAE and others working with Saab. It a strategic decision, european programs are messy.

 

[oldcpu]

There is a rather long article here entitled "Why the Saab Gripen NG is right for Canada".

Also, The WarZone now has an article (dated 4-Feb-2026) on the Gripen

Further to those articles, ... like Canada, Switzerland is currently struggling with significant cost overruns on the F-35. I note that following Sweden’s January 2026 offer to Canada of 72 Gripen E fighters and six GlobalEye surveillance planes, the "Swedish Blueprint" to reconsider the F-35 has sparked a renewed debate in Switzerland. Despite the Swiss government’s December 2025 instruction to maximize the F-35 buy, cost overruns of CHF 1.3 billion and the political persistence of a 15% U.S. trade tariff have made the original 36-jet goal politically and financially difficult under the voter-approved CHF 6 billion cap.

With only eight F-35s firmly under contract and the remaining 20–28 jets in limbo, proponents of Swiss sovereignty argue that the Gripen is the only viable path to reaching the nation’s updated 70-aircraft requirement without further exposure to U.S. price volatility. To facilitate this shift, the Swiss Federal Council proposed a "type-neutral" CHF 31 billion defense fund on January 28, 2026, intended to bridge the capability gap through a temporary VAT hike. Because the subsequent F-35 batches remain unsigned, Bern retains the legal flexibility to pivot to a "Mixed Fleet" strategy. Proponents argue that by honoring the initial F-35 commitment but capping the fleet at a small number, Switzerland can use the new fund to procure a European alternative like the Gripen for the mass of its air force.

So there are interesting things transpiring in regards to both Canada and Switzerland in regards to the F35 procurement.

 

[oldcpu]

I suspect current politics of the current US administration in terms of tariffs on Canada will make it increasingly difficult for Canada to proceed down the F-35 route for all 88-fighter aircraft. While the tariffs are not on the F-35 procurement, the surrounding US tariffs on other aspects of Canadian export goods to USA is muddying the waters. The possibility of a mixed air wings of 16-F-35s and 72 Gripen (together with 6 global eye AEW aircraft) is going to look more and more attractive to Canadian politicians, as US rhetoric gets louder and louder against Canada. What was once a clear 88 F35 acquisition for Canada, is being made more obscure by the day, due to US politician and diplomat statements.

Further to this, various news sources have reported that the RCAF has proceeded to sign a contract involving 14-more F-35s although it is not clear to me if this was only for long lead items for 14-more F-35s or for the complete procurement of 14-more F-35s. if one assumes it is for the complete aircraft, then Canada has increased its contractual commitment to a total of 30 F-35s at present. That still thou, doesn't close the door (yet) for Canada to stop F-35 procurement after 30-fighter aircraft and proceed with a mixed fleet of Gripen fighter aircraft.

I read somewhere >70% of Canadians polled want the F35 procurement stopped, to be replaced by the Swedish Gripen. I also read that the opposition in Canadian parliament are also piling pressure on Carney to stop the F35 procurement and go with the Gripen. Frankly, POTUS Trump, in his America first approach, and his effort to apply Tarrifs on Canada (contrary to a previous Free trade agreement between the two countries) is not making this easy for the RCAF nor making it easy for Canadian PM Carney to stay with the F-35 only.

My hope is all the politics settles down, and a clear and productive way forward is found, what ever that may be.

 

[oldcpu]

There has been an indirect development that may affect the Canadian fighter aircraft procurement - which MAY be significant (or may not) , which frankly, I struggle a lot to understand. Here is my understanding, and I may have this wrong.

As of 14 February 2026, Canada has officially signed an agreement to participate in the EU’s SAFE (Security Action for Europe) instrument, following adoption by the Council of the European Union on 11 February 2026.

Under the agreement’s provisional application, Canadian entities may participate in SAFE-eligible defence projects. If the agreement’s origin-equivalence clause is operative, Canadian-origin components can be treated as equivalent to EU origin for purposes of the 65% content requirement in Regulation (EU) 2025/1106.

Importantly, SAFE loans are issued to EU member states — not directly to Canada — but Canadian firms can now be integrated into projects financed through that mechanism. This changes financing eligibility conditions for cooperative production; it does not in itself award contracts or direct Canadian procurement decisions.

Regarding fighter aircraft, Canada remains under contract for the F-35 Lightning II from Lockheed Martin, and payments for additional long-lead items have increased the number of funded aircraft. A Canadian government “strategic review” of future acquisitions has been publicly acknowledged, but no formal cancellation of the remaining aircraft has been announced. The Saab JAS 39 Gripen proposed by Saab AB could potentially benefit from SAFE eligibility if structured to meet the origin requirements; however, any shift from the F-35 to the Gripen would require a separate, explicit procurement decision by the Canadian government.

Claims that SAFE participation guarantees or predetermines a “Gripen pivot” are political or strategic speculation, not established fact.

The Saab Gripen proposal could be particularly impacted by Canada’s participation in SAFE because of the financing provisions within the agreement.

The SAFE instrument offers European low-interest loans to EU members for defense projects, with the condition that 65% of the project’s content comes from EU, EEA, or Ukrainian sources.

However, through the treaty’s origin-equivalence clause (Article 4), Canadian-made components can now be treated as EU-origin for the purposes of the 65% rule, allowing Canadian firms to contribute directly to the production of SAFE-funded defense projects. If Saab’s Gripen is assembled in Canada using Canadian parts and labor, these contributions could qualify as "domestic" content under SAFE’s rules, making the project eligible for financing through SAFE’s low-interest loans.

This could slightly lower the cost (paid by industry - ie SAFE could help reduce costs for both Canadian and European parts suppliers, and potentially lead to slightly better pricing or contract terms for Canada) of building the Gripen in Canada, helping to provide Canada with an economically viable alternative to other fighter aircraft options.

However, it's important to note that this doesn’t automatically mean Canada will select the Gripen or shift its focus from the F-35.

The Gripen could only benefit from this financial mechanism if it meets the requirements for SAFE financing, and the Canadian government would still need to make a formal procurement decision.

The "Gripen pivot" remains speculative and hinges on several future political and strategic factors, including the ongoing review of the F-35 fleet and potential new industrial and defense priorities under the Carney government.

 

[oldcpu]

On the topic of the F-35, while some countries, due to the rising cost of the aircraft, are considering to reduce the quantity of their aircraft (ie Canada and Switzerland), ... other countries are increasing their procurement quantity (despite the price increase) indicating the F-35 is a sought after aircraft.

As noted, Canada recently added procurement of long lead items for a purchase of 14 more F-35s (potentially bringing their number of F-35s up to 30 aircraft - which I note thou, is well short of their goal of 88 fighter aircraft): CBC: Canada discreetly puts money down on 14 additional F-35s (10-Feb-2026) . There is of course more to this story. Canada may (or may not) go for the full procurement size of 88 F-35 aircraft.
.
Purporedly, Belgium wants 11 more F-35s (15-Feb-2026):
Belgium to order additional F-35 jets - Belgium has a contract for 34 F-35s, and is considering to acquire close to a dozen more (quantity 11 more). If that happens it would mean a total of 45 F-35s operated by Belgium.

Further, Germany wants 15 more F-35s (20-Oct-2025): Germany plans to order 15 more F-35 fighters for €2.5 billion from U.S. defence giant Lockheed Martin – Pistorius. Purportedly if that proceeds it would mean a total of 50 F-35s operated by Germany.

I note thou, Germany will have a mixed fighter aircraft fleet, where Germany recently ordered 20-more Eurofighter jets (more on the mixed fleet below).

Denmark is also considering to procure quantity 16 more F-35 jets ...
Denmark to buy more F-35 jets, ships in $13.7 billion spending plan (dated 13-Oct-2025). With an additional 16, that will bring Denmarks quantity of F-35 aircraft to a fleet of 43 once all are delivered.

With regards to Switzerland and Canada, both of which are now contemplating reducing their F-35 orders due to cost overruns, and also political reasons, where they may instead augment their reduced F-35 fleet with another fighter aircraft (such as the Saab Gripen).

There is concern in Canada that a mixed fleet (of F-35 + Gripen) will incur higher maintenance costs. My view is 'higher' is a relative number ... higher than what? The Gripen is both cheaper than the F-35 to procure and cheaper than the F-35 to maintain, and also easier than the F-35 to maintain. Its availability is arguably going to be higher than the more complex F-35. Its possible after all the numbers are calculated, a mixed F-35/Gripen fleet may be less expensive than an all F-35 fleet, despite the need to have two maintenance and training lines. The F-35 is that expensive.

I also note both Germany and the UK operate mixed fleets of fighter aircraft. Both the UK and Germany plan to continue operating the Eurofighter Typhoon together with their F-35.

So if either Canada or Switzerland were to procure less F-35s than they initially desired, it would not be unheard of for them to elect to operate a mixed fleet of fighters — possibly the Saab Gripen in addition to F-35s.

At this stage - it's all hypothetical possibilities. Very hypothetical - yes. But something also to be taken seriously, as a possiblity.

 

[mehmed beg]

Has anyone thought that the Europeans would do something for their independence?
These are not the governments that have any concerns whatsoever, about interests of their nations?
All these dramas,how Europe is defenceless Vis a Vis Russia is just another game. Nothing more than that. The only ideological and national interest in Europe is well being of the Zionists and Israel.
That's only political matter that is taken seriously. If that's not obvious then what to say there?
This talk about so called European nuclear deterrent? Give me a break.
" But but Saaaar , French nuclear deterrent, should only complement,US deterrent" ??? What kind of joke is that?
Since Chirac , France let these jokers play their games.
If someone isn't willing to do one risky and decent thing then , give up
Turkiye, which wasn't technically country, in many ways dependant on many things for various reasons in black books of the West ( and others), has managed to to excise its own will to certain extent. If Germany, Belgium and etc are not willing, so be it.
In any case, even bigger problem is fact that no one wants to serve in the forces
So , maybe Canada should buy F 35 and be done over with this business.