SSB İsmail DEMİR:
"Micro Satellite Launch System MUFS will launch the first satellite in 2024"
ROKETSAN Advanced Technologies and Systems Asst. Dr. Sartuk KARASOY
"In our National Satellite Launch System, we are moving to a configuration that will carry a 400 kg satellite to an altitude of 550 km.
So if I am understanding it correctly, Turkiye originally planned to develop a solid rocket small-sat launcher called MUFA first and then proceed to a bigger, 1.5t to LEO launcher called UFA/SIMSEK powered by liquid fuel engine after that in 2030s, but have since then updated plans and scrapped solid fuel launch vehicle development plans, right?
From what I'm seeing, with their new plan MUFA/MUFS is powered by liquid fuel engine, has much bigger payload and could be scaled up using a common core booster configuration. Then later Roketsan will proceed to an even bigger liquid fuel rocket with more powerful stages and heavier payloads. I hope someone confirms if my understandings are right or wrong.
Either way, presuming that my understandings are right, I think the change is absolutely in the right direction. Quite a few countries have started their space rocket development using solid propellant motors, since that rids of the need to develop turbopumps and propellant tanks, avoid much of combustion instability problems and countless other difficulties, but in the end, they all had to develop liquid fuel rocket, most of them through technology transfer parallel to domestic technology development. There's no other way. For Turkiye and it's limited budget, better start earlier. I might even say it's already very late than what could've been.
Even if u spend more still you cannot compress the timeline in space projects unlike defence sector. A slow and steady start is always great.
True to certain extent, but there's some old space characteristics in what you are describing. New space has proved to work a bit different to a certain degree. Though I agree for the most part, especially when we are talking about Turkiye, since the progress in Turkiye right now are closer to basic problems, and at this stage you can't get things accelerated all that much with money alone. Moreover, they aren't investing all that much in the first place.
I don't like the pace of Turkish space program as it is but by 2028 TUA is planning to put 1500kg payloads to orbits as high as 750km. This will be a milestone after which we may be looking at better numbers.
I would fast forward to 10 years into the future to get excited about our space endeavor.
These timelines are disappointing. Turkiye must do things related to space faster. There is no time to waste. Maybe the solution is to partner up with Azerbaijan, Qatar, KSA, Malaysia and/or Indonesia to create a space program with enough financial backing and human resources. Indonesia is also perfectly located for launch, while R&D and subcomponent production could be based in Turkiye, Malaysia etc.
We are at the onset of the age of space colonization. The countries who fall behind in this race will be doomed, just like the nations who failed to participate in discovering new lands on earth (read Ottomans).
NASA is planning to start mining on the Moon in early 2030s. China probably in mid-2030s (both potentially subject to delays).
Turkiye and her alliance must aim to establish moon bases and mining stations in early 2040s the latest.
Therefore, the ambition should be;
1) 400kg to 550km orbit by 2025
2) 1.5t to 700km by 2027
3) manned spaceflights starting 2030
4) manned moon mission starting 2040
5) manned mars mission starting 2045
I know this is very ambitious with tight deadlines. But it has to be done in order for Turkiye and the Muslim world to not fall behind in this race. Maybe an acquisition of a small launch company could help kickstart things e.g. Firefly for example. (If the US government approves)
Personally, I have high hopes for Baykar to surprise us on the topic of space. Hopefully they can help accelerate things as well.
Regardless of if you like the pace or not, that pace is actually very quick, I might even say impossible based on current progress.
Based on their past relationship with Ukraine as well as TUA connections to Yuzhmash, I'd assume that SIMSEK development is seeing Ukrainian input. There's no shame in it since every other important players had more advanced partners at one stage. India and Europe (France), Japan and US (Delta), Korea and Russia (Naro). Else, there's no way SIMSEK launches by the end of this decade without any external help.
To be very honest, even with external help, I can't really see SIMSEK launching by 2027. That's 3 years from now! Development of small sat launch vehicle with over 400kg to 500km LEO payload capacity, would have yielded a lot of very visible progress by the time it's 3 years before launch. There hasn't been a single info about any kind of Turkish turbopump development, as well as other activities regarding launch vehicle development like propellant tanks development, test facility, nevermind the still-uncertain launch site problem. Some of the core components could be outsourced, yes, and quite a few new space companies developing rockets are doing so, of which some are precisely importing Yuzhmash turbopumps. TUA/Roketsan could go as far as taking the same route as KSLV-I Naro and co-develop the first stage with Ukraine. Even then, I find this silence regarding any detailed information very odd.
For reference, KSLV-I took 7 years from 2002 till 2009 for the first launch, and 11 years until 2013 for the the first successful launch. KSLV-II took even longer from 2010 til 2021, 11 years for the first launch. Budget for KSLV-II alone was around 1.6 billion USD. So all in all, it took 19 years and two programs to learn the basic system engineering of the launch vehicle and ground control systems, basic components like flight computer, propellant tanks and other structural components, payload system and fairing. Parallel to that, development of cryogenics system, a GG cycle turbopump and complete 1st stage and upper stage engines also took close to a decade and a half. Note that both Turkiye and Ukraine are MTCR members and would not be able to directly transfer engine/turbopump technologies. Of course, MTCR is not exactly legally binding and both countries could simply ignore it if they so choose to, but there would be serious implications.
To sum it up, I expect Ukraine to be serious partner in SIMSEK, and even then the current timelines are extremely ambitious/borderline impossible to be honest. Also, TUA needs way more funding to fully realize Turkish space ambitions.
So we're not launching anything to orbit for five more years at best. Yaaay! We send probe rockets to space in 2017 and actual orbit is reached after a full decade. And that is if everything goes according to the plan. The only silver lining for me is that they upgraded the payload from 100kg to 400kg. It's still very little for LEO but at least quadrupled from 100kg.
The biggest problem was the lack of long-term planning pre-2018. As I've said above, Turkiye should've started developing space launch vehicle and as an extent should've had an actual space plan much sooner I feel. The establishment of dedicated space agency was also quite late. Obviously the history of formal Turkish space development itself started only relatively recently, so it's natural that there's much to be desired. TUA and the 10 year plan from 2021 is a good starting point at least.
