IC3M@N FX
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I find it highly unrealistic that the TAI KAAN could be delivered by the end of 2028 — even by late 2028. Of the six announced prototypes, there is still no trace — we have seen neither images of their assembly nor concrete indications of their completion, and we are already approaching August 2025.
In just about four months, it will already be 2026. Considering that a complex, unstable fighter aircraft requires several years of intensive testing, I seriously wonder when these tests are supposed to begin. Even if all six prototypes were ready to fly immediately, two and a half years would still be extremely tight for a complete and meaningful test and validation campaign.
Already during KAAN’s maiden flight, it was evident that the flight behavior was very cautious: no significant maneuvers, no sharp turns, no aggressive pitch‑up or rolls — seemingly to avoid overloading the flight control system. This suggests that the software was running in a very conservative “safe mode” during that flight, allowing only minimal movements. Unlike the Hürjet, which is aerodynamically stable by design, the KAAN is conceptually an unstable aircraft.
Such unstable designs are chosen deliberately to achieve extreme agility — but they do not maintain stable flight by themselves and must be constantly corrected by a highly sophisticated digital fly‑by‑wire system. Developing and especially fine‑tuning such a system requires a substantial amount of testing and development time.
For comparison:
– The F‑22 Raptor required around eight years from its first flight to Initial Operational Capability (IOC), despite enormous U.S. resources and experience.
– The Chinese J‑20 took about seven years to reach IOC.
– The Eurofighter Typhoon took roughly ten years from first flight to its first operational tranche.
For KAAN to reach full air superiority capability — with complex maneuvers, full weapons integration, and a reliable flight control system — a timeline of just around two and a half years seems unrealistic. Even if all six prototypes were completed immediately, they would still need to undergo parallel, intensive test programs for structure, flight dynamics, avionics, weapons, and software.
Getting an unstable fighter aircraft into the air is one thing — mastering it across its full operational spectrum with high reliability and full performance is quite another.
Therefore, I consider a cautious initial service entry (Block 10) in 2029 at the earliest to be realistic. For a mature aircraft with full operational capability (Block 20–30), one should realistically expect 2032 or later.
In just about four months, it will already be 2026. Considering that a complex, unstable fighter aircraft requires several years of intensive testing, I seriously wonder when these tests are supposed to begin. Even if all six prototypes were ready to fly immediately, two and a half years would still be extremely tight for a complete and meaningful test and validation campaign.
Already during KAAN’s maiden flight, it was evident that the flight behavior was very cautious: no significant maneuvers, no sharp turns, no aggressive pitch‑up or rolls — seemingly to avoid overloading the flight control system. This suggests that the software was running in a very conservative “safe mode” during that flight, allowing only minimal movements. Unlike the Hürjet, which is aerodynamically stable by design, the KAAN is conceptually an unstable aircraft.
Such unstable designs are chosen deliberately to achieve extreme agility — but they do not maintain stable flight by themselves and must be constantly corrected by a highly sophisticated digital fly‑by‑wire system. Developing and especially fine‑tuning such a system requires a substantial amount of testing and development time.
For comparison:
– The F‑22 Raptor required around eight years from its first flight to Initial Operational Capability (IOC), despite enormous U.S. resources and experience.
– The Chinese J‑20 took about seven years to reach IOC.
– The Eurofighter Typhoon took roughly ten years from first flight to its first operational tranche.
For KAAN to reach full air superiority capability — with complex maneuvers, full weapons integration, and a reliable flight control system — a timeline of just around two and a half years seems unrealistic. Even if all six prototypes were completed immediately, they would still need to undergo parallel, intensive test programs for structure, flight dynamics, avionics, weapons, and software.
Getting an unstable fighter aircraft into the air is one thing — mastering it across its full operational spectrum with high reliability and full performance is quite another.
Therefore, I consider a cautious initial service entry (Block 10) in 2029 at the earliest to be realistic. For a mature aircraft with full operational capability (Block 20–30), one should realistically expect 2032 or later.
