Block 10 2028/29 GE F-110 Engine, "Initial Operational Capability"
Block 20 2032 with improved stealth coating + UAV teaming, including electronic maturity of the on-board systems for deployment.
Block 30 2034/35 TEI TF-35000 engine and minor to moderate improvements to both hardware and software.
Block 40 2040+ TEI TF-35000 V2 improvements in durability and operating hours + TVC (Thrust Vectoring Control).
Probably larger Gen 5.5+ upgrades to be able to compete with Gen 6 aircraft.
The defense minister is talking about delivering the first production aircraft in 2028. In my view, 2029 seems more realistic. How powerful these first aircraft will actually be is another matter entirely.
It should also be noted that the defense minister is under a great deal of pressure: results are expected of him, and he has to deliver them. He simply cannot afford to make unrealistic promises and lose face later on.
Furthermore, Block 10 and Block 20 are likely to differ only in details. The focus in the coming years will be on ironing out teething problems in the hardware and software, including optimization, the integration of UAV capabilities, and improved stealth coating. These improvements will be implemented step by step and developed in parallel.
Experience has shown that such adjustments take four to five years, as has been seen with other programs. I therefore assume that the aircraft will not reach full operational capability until later, between Block 20 and 30.
We have also discussed Block 30 for 2034/35 with the TF-35000 on several occasions. The engine is essentially based on existing F-110 technologies and will require a total of around nine to ten years of development – so it is not a completely new concept, but rather an evolutionary development, which TEI began working on in the early 2020s.
Everything concerning Block 40 and beyond is still pure speculation at this stage. However, it should be borne in mind that the first Gen 6 aircraft are also expected during this period. A software and hardware update as a mid-life upgrade in this direction is therefore less wishful thinking than a necessary further development in order to keep up with technological advances.
A TF 35000 with improved durability, TVC, and a lower heat signature is not a pipe dream, but a feasible goal in a new revision by 2040+.
Including better AESA radar, e.g., DGaN (GaN on Diamond) combined with multiband X & L, better avionics, and an EW/ECM package, these are all realistic possibilities.
The official schedule is very ambitious, but not entirely unrealistic – provided that testing is consistently parallelized and the development processes are well coordinated.
Realistically, I consider 2029 to be a more likely date for the start of Block 10 series production. Only then will it become clear how well the systems actually work in practice and to what extent the target schedule can be met.
