TR Turkish Air Forces|News & Discussion

[dBSPL]

Didn't we hear definitive announcement from Ismail Demir that ÖZGÜR would be extended to block 40 and 50?

Yes, but at what pace, at what rate? Please explain this $20 billion to me in such a way that I can be more hopeful about the future of a sophisticated modernization program arising from the OZGUR project. I don't know how we will squeeze ÖZGÜR into the same period when we are signing the largest project development and serial production contracts for the KAAN and Hurjet projects in the history of the Turkish defense industry for the next 10 years, while at the same time signing the largest aviation purchase contract in our history from the USA. Either this speculated figure is complete nonsense, or the budget of the Ministry of Defense will increase 2-3 times.

 

[Sanchez]

Didn't we hear definitive announcement from Ismail Demir that ÖZGÜR would be extended to block 40 and 50?

Which is not possible without agreement and support from US, lest we become Iranized. We want to cut our umbilical cord to US so to say, but we need American help in doing so. Kinda ironic, actually.

Per the 20bn number, we simply don't know what it entails as we previously discussed. Just that it has 40 new frames, 79 B70 kits, 400 AAMs and 800 PGMs, spares, training and everything else. We also won't be able to use our own weapons on B70s. Which got me thinking, is it at all possible that the 20bn figure also includes adding our weapons to B70s by Lockheed.

 

[uçuyorum]

Which is not possible without agreement and support from US, lest we become Iranized. We want to cut our umbilical cord to US so to say, but we need American help in doing so. Kinda ironic, actually.

Per the 20bn number, we simply don't know what it entails as we previously discussed. Just that it has 40 new frames, 79 B70 kits, 400 AAMs and 800 PGMs, spares, training and everything else. We also won't be able to use our own weapons on B70s. Which got me thinking, is it at all possible that the 20bn figure also includes adding our weapons to B70s by Lockheed.

Let me do a rough calculation with wikipedia and other public figures.
Unit price for F16 Block 70 is quoted at around 80 mil. 3.2 billion for 40 aircraft, I'd say 50 mil per kit for 80, considering a Block 50 was 18 mil in in 1998 and would probably be closer to 30 today. That's another 4 bil, so 7.2. Around a mil per amraam. But these are just unit costs with nothing else included, with spares and support etc. its not doffocult to get to 20. Rule of thumb is a jet costs 2-3 times its original price to operate over several decades, some of those costs are here.

 

[Huelague]

Revision of customs union was always on the table and eu side waited for the elections expecting the victory of KK, but ok since RTE has 5 more years they are not against to agree with him since they really want modernization of Customs Union.

When will the customs union updated?

 

[Afif]

Which is not possible without agreement and support from US, lest we become Iranized. We want to cut our umbilical cord to US so to say, but we need American help in doing so. Kinda ironic, actually.

I strongly suspect, F-16 that didn't undergo Peace Onyx III (PO-III) programme can be upgraded to ÖZGÜR.

"Interestingly, the air-launch of the BOZDOĞAN missile was performed from an F-16C Block 40 aircraft, which did not receive avionic upgrades under PO-III and F-16 MSM Projects. The non-modernized F-16C/D Block 30 and Block 40 aircraft are equipped with the older generation mission computer, and source codes of the Operational Flight Program (OFP) that runs on this mission computer were purchased by Turkey many years ago."

President ERDOĞAN Announces Successful Test of BOZDOĞAN WVR Air-to-Air Missile

On April 14, 2021, President Recep Tayyip ERDOĞAN announced that the BOZDOĞAN IIR guided within visual range (WVR) air-to-air missile developed by youth Turkish technicians and engineers under GÖKTUĞ Project has successfully destroyed its target (TUSAŞ`s ŞİMŞEK high-Speed target Drone) during...

www.defenceturkey.com

And according to this news, the numbers of F-16 modernized under PO-III ws 163.

TAI hands over last upgraded F-16 aircraft to Turkish Air Force - Airforce Technology

Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) has handed over the final upgraded F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft to the Turkish Air Force during a ceremony at its facility in Ankara.

www.airforce-technology.com

Conclusion- So, that should leaves roughly 80 F-16.
Given 35 of them are already undergoing ÖZGÜR modernization.
That leaves 45 more that Turkey has source codes of.
@dBSPL

 

[Chocopie]

$20 billion is an insane price for 40 F-16Vs, 80 upgrade kits and unknown no. of missiles and services.

For $23.1 billion Japan ordered 105 F-35s in 2020, deal package included:
- additional 5 P&W F135 engines as spare
- F-35-unique infrared flares
- reprogramming centre access and F-35 performance-based logistics
- software development and integration
- flight test instrumentation
- aircraft ferry and tanker support
- spare and repair parts
- support equipment, tools and test equipment
- technical data and publications
- personnel training and training equipment
- US government and contractor engineering, technical, and logistics support services
- other related elements of logistics support

Dunno if it got approval from US Congress yet.
https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/japan-f-35-joint-strike-fighter-aircraft-0

US approves sale of 105 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft to Japan

The US Department of State has approved a potential USD23.11 billion Foreign Military Sale (FMS) to Japan of 105 Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter...

www.janes.com

 

[Zafer]

We should not make a plan based on 'hope' or 'realistic' scenario, we have to make a plan for the worst situation. I do believe we can make a good engine and fighter jet, also we will have UCAVs, but there are thousands of things may go wrong and may extend our timeline. For that reason we need those F16s. We must find a way to get them, along with engines for the Kaan.

May this be the our last arm purchase from Americans.

Amin

We don't need those F16s. You don't spend all your money to buy insurance, we don't need to be ensured all that much. Being ensured is not relying on others, relying on others is surrendering. It is not that we have enemies poised to slam a hammer. There is no one who can attack Türkiye other than The USA.

 

[Afif]

I don't know how we will squeeze ÖZGÜR into the same period when we are signing the largest project development and serial production contracts for the KAAN and Hurjet projects in the history of the Turkish defense industry for the next 10 years, while at the same time signing the largest aviation purchase contract in our history from the USA.

Still, i think it is possible.

Either this speculated figure is complete nonsense, or the budget of the Ministry of Defense will increase 2-3 times.

$20 billions seems to be official estimate.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47493

However, i find it hard to believe Turkey would move forward with such absurd numbers.

Instead, 32 Typhoon for $6 billions and modernization of remaining 45 F-16 that Turkey (reportedly) has source code of should be just enough (+KE and Akinci) to hold onto until the KAAN arrives.


@Chocopie
900 A2A and 800 A2G weapons is mentioned in the report.

 

[Nutuk]

Agree on the need to upgrade F-16s until Kaan arrives, disagree on buying it from Americans rather than using Ozgur. $20B is too much money to be spent on external purchases.

In a sense I think like you, but ex general Beyazit Karakas explained why Turkiye want's 40 new F16's. It is because of conformal fuel tanks

Turkiye has currently 29 F16 with conformal fuel tank and want to add another 40 for long range missions. Yes we have air refueling planes but in some cases you better have the CFT tanks.

What the ex general says makes sense. flipside is that the new F16's will still need to use American missiles etc. unless we can make a deal with Lockheed to integrate our own AA missiles.

So having half of our F16's with Ozgur upgrade and the other half in blk-70 standard is not bad. Despite we move on to TFx, it will take 2-3 decades until we have a sizeable fleet of TFx fighters. We simply need the F16's to remain the back bone for the next 20 years still

 

[Yasar_TR]

Let me do a rough calculation with wikipedia and other public figures.
Unit price for F16 Block 70 is quoted at around 80 mil. 3.2 billion for 40 aircraft, I'd say 50 mil per kit for 80, considering a Block 50 was 18 mil in in 1998 and would probably be closer to 30 today. That's another 4 bil, so 7.2. Around a mil per amraam. But these are just unit costs with nothing else included, with spares and support etc. its not doffocult to get to 20. Rule of thumb is a jet costs 2-3 times its original price to operate over several decades, some of those costs are here.

Let’s elaborate on your rough calculations:
According to official US defence sources the cost of Greece’s 123 plane upgrade kit will cost them 2.4 billion dollars. This includes 125 Aesa radars and 123 kits of avionics etc.

Government of Greece – Upgrade of F-16 Aircraft to F-16 Block V Configuration | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

www.dsca.mil

That means Greeks are paying just under 20 million dollars per kit. I can’t see us paying a great deal more than that. So for the 79 kits, it totals 1.55 billion dollars.

Regarding the F16 V70 planes themselves; there are various quotes made by LM:
Slovakia has been offered 14 planes for 800million. That is 57 million a piece.
For Colombia they have offered 108 million dollars a piece for 24 planes and 133 million dollars a piece for 12 planes. However these include variety of different munitions.
Bulgaria is contemplating to buy 8 F16 planes for 1.3 billion. That means 162 million a piece.
Below site quotes f16v70 price to be 63million a piece

Top 10 most expensive fighter jets in 2024

Explore the top 10 list featuring high-tech aircraft with the highest price tags in today's aviation market. Discover the most expensive fighter jets of 2024.

www.aerotime.aero

As Turkey will want to produce these aircrafts and their engines in house at Tusas and TEI, I can’t see us paying more than Slovakian planes.
So that makes 2.4 billion for the 40 planes.
Regarding 600 AAMs:
If we are thinking of buying the long range AIM 120 D version (Since we have Gokdogan in production it is only apt to think that we will go for the Aim 120D) : UK ordered 200 of them for 650 million dollars. Making it 3.25 million a piece. So for 600 missiles it would total 1.95 billion dollars.
Regarding the 800 Precision Guided Munition :
It s difficult to guess what we would be buying from US, since we have so many different versions of this type of munition in our inventory. The only munition that makes sense is something like an AGM-88G HARM as Akbaba is still in development stage (Since Greeks have recently ordered the E version) at a price of nearly 1 million a piece making 0.8 billion.

So in total the logical payable cost of this order should be no more than 6 billion dollars. 20 billion dollars is outrageously high and in explicable.

 

[Bozan]

The lead time on f16 from US is in years

 

[Khagan1923]

Yes, but at what pace, at what rate? Please explain this $20 billion to me in such a way that I can be more hopeful about the future of a sophisticated modernization program arising from the OZGUR project. I don't know how we will squeeze ÖZGÜR into the same period when we are signing the largest project development and serial production contracts for the KAAN and Hurjet projects in the history of the Turkish defense industry for the next 10 years, while at the same time signing the largest aviation purchase contract in our history from the USA. Either this speculated figure is complete nonsense, or the budget of the Ministry of Defense will increase 2-3 times.

Let me say this straight. If we pay 20 Billion dollars for 40 new F-16 Block 70, 79 F-16 Block 70 modernization kits, lets say 200-300 A2A Missiles, 200-300 A2G Bombs/Missiles we are a joke and deserve to be laughed at.

40 F-16 Block 70 - 5-6 Billion dollar
79 Kits - 2-2,5 Billion Dollar
200-300 AIM-120-C8/AIM-9X 500 Million - 1 Billion dollar
200-300 Various bombs and missiles to be used on new F-16 500 Million - 1 Billion dollar

Those numbers aren't pulled out of my ass. Those are numbers estimated on other sales made by the US to other countries. Greece is paying 2.5 Billion for 85 Kits. Sweden is paying 650 Million for 250 AIM-120-C8 Missiles. Bahrain is paying 2.75 Billion for 19 new F-16 Block 70.

Adding all this we come out at 9-10.5 Billion. Where do the other 11-9 Billion come from?

If we are paying that kind of Money at least go and buy a beast like the Eurofighter T4 which eats the F-16 and Rafale for Lunch.

 

[Sanchez]

I strongly suspect, F-16 that didn't undergo Peace Onyx III (PO-III) programme can be upgraded to ÖZGÜR.

"Interestingly, the air-launch of the BOZDOĞAN missile was performed from an F-16C Block 40 aircraft, which did not receive avionic upgrades under PO-III and F-16 MSM Projects. The non-modernized F-16C/D Block 30 and Block 40 aircraft are equipped with the older generation mission computer, and source codes of the Operational Flight Program (OFP) that runs on this mission computer were purchased by Turkey many years ago."

President ERDOĞAN Announces Successful Test of BOZDOĞAN WVR Air-to-Air Missile

On April 14, 2021, President Recep Tayyip ERDOĞAN announced that the BOZDOĞAN IIR guided within visual range (WVR) air-to-air missile developed by youth Turkish technicians and engineers under GÖKTUĞ Project has successfully destroyed its target (TUSAŞ`s ŞİMŞEK high-Speed target Drone) during...

www.defenceturkey.com

And according to this news, the numbers of F-16 modernized under PO-III ws 163.

TAI hands over last upgraded F-16 aircraft to Turkish Air Force - Airforce Technology

Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) has handed over the final upgraded F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft to the Turkish Air Force during a ceremony at its facility in Ankara.

www.airforce-technology.com

Conclusion- So, that should leaves roughly 80 F-16.
Given 35 of them are already undergoing ÖZGÜR modernization.
That leaves 45 more that Turkey has source codes of.
@dBSPL

Number of non CCIP B40s should be under 12, not sure of the exact number right now.
-
And correct me if i'm wrong but i think your 45 number also includes the 30 B50s we got under POIV, that did not undergo CCIP and doubt will undergo Özgür. So again something between 10 to 15 airframes can be upgraded.

 

[Khagan1923]

Let’s elaborate on your rough calculations:
According to official US defence sources the cost of Greece’s 123 plane upgrade kit will cost them 2.4 billion dollars. This includes 125 Aesa radars and 123 kits of avionics etc.

Government of Greece – Upgrade of F-16 Aircraft to F-16 Block V Configuration | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

www.dsca.mil

That means Greeks are paying just under 20 million dollars per kit. I can’t see us paying a great deal more than that. So for the 79 kits, it totals 1.55 billion dollars.
Regarding the F16 V70 planes themselves; there are various quotes made by LM:
Slovakia they have been offered 14 planes for 800million. That is 57 million a piece.
For Colombia they have offered 108 million dollars a piece for 24 planes and 133 million dollars a piece for 12 planes. However these include variety of different munitions.
Bulgaria is contemplating to buy 8 F16 planes for 1.3 billion. That means 162 million a piece.
Below site quotes f16v70 price to be 63million a piece

Top 10 most expensive fighter jets in 2024

Explore the top 10 list featuring high-tech aircraft with the highest price tags in today's aviation market. Discover the most expensive fighter jets of 2024.

www.aerotime.aero

As Turkey will want to produce these aircrafts and their engines in house at Tusas and TEI, I can’t see us paying more than Slovakian planes.
So that makes 2.4 billion for the 40 planes.
Regarding 600 AAMs:
If we are thinking of buying the long range AIM 120 D version (Since we have Gokdogan in production it is only apt to think that we will go for the Aim 120D) : UK ordered 200 of them for 650 million dollars. Making it 3.25 million a piece. So for 600 missiles it would total 1.95 billion dollars.
Regarding the 800 Precision Guided Munition :
It s difficult to guess what we would be buying from US, since we have so many different versions of this type of munition in our inventory. The only munition that makes sense is something like an AGM-88G HARM as Akbaba is still in development stage (Since Greeks have recently ordered the E version) at a price of nearly 1 million a piece making 0.8 billion.

So in total the logical payable cost of this order should be no more than 6 billion dollars. 20 billion dollars is outrageously high and in explicable.

I have touched on this when the number first came up. Something is really fishy here. Those numbers don't add up. Even if you add missiles and bombs you dont come close to it at most the purchase would top out at 10 Billion if we take everything at double the price. So either there are things included that haven't been leaked yet or the US thinks we are that desperate for this purchase.

 

[AWP]

So for the last years SSB claimed that Turkey will have better and more advanced AAM than AIM-120 and AIM-9 , and now Turkey want to buy 600 US made AAM

Either its false news or SSB are lying to us

 

[Afif]

So for the last years SSB claimed that Turkey will have better and more advanced AAM than AIM-120 and AIM-9 , and now Turkey want to buy 600 US made AAM

Either its false news or SSB are lying to us

That sounds absurd.
It doesn’t matter if Turkey has more advanced AAM than AIM-120, because ultimately it can only be integrated with OZGUR jets and few other block 40. (that Turkey has source code of)

Majority of the F-16 still need to use US weapon systems.

 

[CAN_TR]

So for the last years SSB claimed that Turkey will have better and more advanced AAM than AIM-120 and AIM-9 , and now Turkey want to buy 600 US made AAM

Either its false news or SSB are lying to us

Or is it maybe because we can‘t use them on every F16, especially those without source code access?

 

[Sanchez]

To expand, using our first gen LGKs by simply making the mission computer recognize them as LGBs is easy, something we done for more than a decade at this point. With SOM, we lose some capabilities, as aircraft can't update targeting packages in flight. Recent test of Azerbaijani SU-25 using KGK is the most contemporary version of this workaround method, using a smart launcher and an external computer, separate from the mission computer.

As the munitions we make get more complicated and capable however, you have to have direct access to the host aircraft's mission computer, either you own it, or you pay the maker to basically license the munition on the aircraft, a la SOM-J and F-35. With Göktuğ family of AAMs, for Bozdoğan, you can't integrate it to Tulgar without the mission computer and you can't pair Gökdoğan to the aircraft's radar without the mission computer access.

 

[Heartbang]

you can't integrate it to Tulgar

Tulgar?

 

[Sanchez]

Tulgar?

Özgür Batch 2 will include Tulgar HMDs, no? I assume Look&Shoot will be a feature on Bozdoğan as well.