TR Turkiye's F-35 Project and Discussions

Heartbang

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USA should be considered a declaration of good faith.
They're being highly charitable.

If the US were serious about Turkiye's return to the F-35 program, they wouldn't unleash the news from the mouth of that ghoul, Victoria Nuland.

Fact is, they were testing our resolve on the KAAN program, both as a state and as a nation.
The state did good, but as a nation we unfortunately shat the bed, explosively.
 

Strong AI

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Cheongung (천궁, Heaven‘s Bow) air defense system exported to UAE ($3.5 bln) and Saudi Arabia ($3.2 bln) so far.

Mid-tier part of 3 tier layered Korean air defense system. Co-developed with Russia on S-300/-400 base, combining advanced Soviet, US and Korean missile and electronics tech.

And USA says to Türkiye, no F-35 because of S-400 🤣
 

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And USA says to Türkiye, no F-35 because of S-400 🤣
KM-SAM was developed in the late 90s with Russian missile side thruster and cold launch tech transfer coupled with Korean seeker and detection electronics and even US Patriot missile concept. It‘s distincly different to S-300/-400 and an independent Korean system.

The Russians integrated the advanced Korean electronics developments of the project and made S-350 Vitayz system.
 
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As long as funding for Kaan won't be affected, getting 20-40 F35 would be ideal both to bridge the time gap until Kaan becomes operational and also to learn more extensively the 5th gen characteristics by using F35 and participating in NATO exercises.

S400s were not an ideal decision to begin with and with Siper coming online it's looking more and more undesirable. It would be best to move it to Azerbaijan. Due to Shusha Declaration, we can recall it anyway if there is an attack on Turkey.

Why Azerbaidjan? To scout Armenian planes?

Put the S400 in the southest point of North Cyprus and Israeli F35's and F15's wont fly in that zone anymore, because that was the main argument of the USA to cancel the delivery.
 

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Janes chart showing the distribution of F-35s to Europe zone NATO countries
GFudncEWUAAMGYA


If not for political interference in the US, TR would be the largest non-US F-35 operator in the NATO's Europe region, with its +100 quota.

...and we would probably be talking about the 2040s for KAAN.
 
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Janes chart showing the distribution of F-35s to Europe zone NATO countries
GFudncEWUAAMGYA


If not for political interference in the US, TR would be the largest non-US F-35 operator in the NATO's Europe region, with its +100 quota.

...and we would probably be talking about the 2040s for KAAN.
Turkiye is the second largest F-16 operator in the world. In another parallel universe most probably we would've been the second largest F-35 operator also.
 

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Turkiye is the second largest F-16 operator in the world. In another parallel universe most probably we would've been the second larges F-35 operator also.
That would still be Japan with domestic license assembly by MHI and F135 engine parts production by IHI and regional MRO&U center.

147 F-35 fighter jets in total:
105x F-35A variant (US & Japan made)
42x F-35B variant (US made)

 

Strong AI

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Fidan, who also touched on the F-35 issue, said:

"You know, we were part of this program concerning the F-35, then unjustly there was talk of us being removed from it, citing the S-400 issues. We are maintaining our position again, meaning we have a national payment made here, there are planes we need to receive. Turkey is always ready to discuss and debate these issues openly and broadly. At this stage, we actually believe that we can discuss these issues from different perspectives. We also think that America should be open-minded about this, there are some exchanges of views."


From "We want our money back!" to "We want our Aircrafts."?
 

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Fidan, who also touched on the F-35 issue, said:

"You know, we were part of this program concerning the F-35, then unjustly there was talk of us being removed from it, citing the S-400 issues. We are maintaining our position again, meaning we have a national payment made here, there are planes we need to receive. Turkey is always ready to discuss and debate these issues openly and broadly. At this stage, we actually believe that we can discuss these issues from different perspectives. We also think that America should be open-minded about this, there are some exchanges of views."


From "We want our money back!" to "We want our Aircrafts."?
We wanted our money back because they wouldn't give us the planes covered by the money. If they have changed their mind and will deliver us the planes then why not. If they want us to buy more planes that is not acceptable by us. If they want us to supply parts to their F35 production I would say why not.
 

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Fidan, who also touched on the F-35 issue, said:

"You know, we were part of this program concerning the F-35, then unjustly there was talk of us being removed from it, citing the S-400 issues. We are maintaining our position again, meaning we have a national payment made here, there are planes we need to receive. Turkey is always ready to discuss and debate these issues openly and broadly. At this stage, we actually believe that we can discuss these issues from different perspectives. We also think that America should be open-minded about this, there are some exchanges of views."


From "We want our money back!" to "We want our Aircrafts."?

He said:

NEED
 

Strong AI

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Ministry sources, in response to questions about whether Turkey will return to the F-35, said:

"There is currently no change in the attitudes of both countries on the F-35 issue. As our Minister has also stated; we think we can get back the money we paid for the F-35. Negotiations on this issue are ongoing. At this stage, we need to focus on KAAN."

 

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70 Percent or More of F-35s May Not Be Combat Capable​


A September 2023 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report on the F-35 revealed some shocking statistics on just how unready hundreds of billions of dollars worth of F-35s are to provide actual combat power. In fact, the report indicated that only 15 to 30 percent of F-35s may be capable of combat.

But if you were to read a typical article in the media, you might believe that, on average, some 55 percent of F-35s are combat-capable. However, you would be wrong. You see, when the average person sees a report declaring that 55 percent of F-35 combat aircraft are “mission capable,” they assume mission capable equals combat capable. But in doing so, they are being deceived.

The deception comes out of how the F-35 program office and the whole of the Department of Defense define “mission capable.” It turns out that the DoD definition of “mission capable” does not mean combat capable. What it means is that an aircraft can fly and perform at least one mission. So, a plane designated as mission capable might be capable of doing some type of combat, but it might not. Instead, the mission it might be capable of executing could be testing or training, or some other mission that does not involve combat. And even if it is considered capable of testing or training, it might not be capable of doing the full gamut of testing or training you would expect from a fully functional aircraft. Likewise, it could still be classified as mission capable even if it is only capable of executing a portion of the combat-type missions it is supposed to be able to perform.

Hence, within the environs of the military–industrial–congressional complex, “mission capable” is a highly ambiguous term that allows for a whole lot of gaming of accountability metrics. And it tells us very little. Still, it is worth noting that at a 55 percent mission capable rate, the F-35 fleet is well below program targets of 90 percent for the F-35A (Air Force) and 85 percent for the fighter’s F-35B (Marine Corps) and F-35C (Navy) variants. In other words, the F-35 fleet as a whole is nowhere near meeting its mission capability goal of being able to do anything at all.
However, there is another metric that is more useful: “full mission capable.” It turns out that “full mission capable” F-35s are supposed to be able to perform all the missions for which they were contracted, including combat-oriented missions, surveillance, training, testing, show of force, etcetera. This metric is not often publicized, but in the case of the F-35, the watchdog side of the GAO actually did a detailed report of the problems and issues with the F-35 that included how the F-35 fleet looked from the “full mission capable” perspective.

Even for someone who is an F-35 realist, the results are shocking. Not only is the F-35 fleet’s full mission capable rate in the neighborhood of 30 percent (see table on page 96 of the report), the full mission capable rate of the Marine Corps’ F-35B was a miserable 15.5 percent in March 2023. More current full mission capable rates have not been published, but given the program’s ongoing problems and issues, including unreliable engines that are now under-specced due to feature creep, it is highly unlikely the situation has improved in the last year.
And then there is the fact that being fully mission capable is no indicator of how well the plane executes its missions. For example, the F-35 could be designated as mission capable for conducting close air support missions despite the fact the F-35 is the very antithesis of what a close air support plane should be and is not capable of executing genuine close air support.

But given the F-35’s unreliability, talking about full mission capability rates of anything approaching even 50 percent is a pipe dream. And it cannot be overemphasized that the F-35/Joint Strike Fighter has been in development since 1994, costing billions of dollars.

This brings us back to the question of just how many of the over 600 F-35s delivered to the U.S. military can provide significant, non-trivial combat ability. The answer is we really don’t know. But if we combine the F-35’s fragility with its very low full mission-capable and sortie generation rates, it probably isn’t many. Especially, when you think of how many decades and billions of dollars we have dumped into it.
Nevertheless, we will continue to dump billions of dollars into the F-35 program that is already “more than a decade delayed and $183 billion over its original plans” as long as the incestuous relationship between defense contractors, the military, and Congress is permitted to dominate defense procurement.


1.png

 

Heartbang

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70 Percent or More of F-35s May Not Be Combat Capable​


A September 2023 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report on the F-35 revealed some shocking statistics on just how unready hundreds of billions of dollars worth of F-35s are to provide actual combat power. In fact, the report indicated that only 15 to 30 percent of F-35s may be capable of combat.

But if you were to read a typical article in the media, you might believe that, on average, some 55 percent of F-35s are combat-capable. However, you would be wrong. You see, when the average person sees a report declaring that 55 percent of F-35 combat aircraft are “mission capable,” they assume mission capable equals combat capable. But in doing so, they are being deceived.

The deception comes out of how the F-35 program office and the whole of the Department of Defense define “mission capable.” It turns out that the DoD definition of “mission capable” does not mean combat capable. What it means is that an aircraft can fly and perform at least one mission. So, a plane designated as mission capable might be capable of doing some type of combat, but it might not. Instead, the mission it might be capable of executing could be testing or training, or some other mission that does not involve combat. And even if it is considered capable of testing or training, it might not be capable of doing the full gamut of testing or training you would expect from a fully functional aircraft. Likewise, it could still be classified as mission capable even if it is only capable of executing a portion of the combat-type missions it is supposed to be able to perform.

Hence, within the environs of the military–industrial–congressional complex, “mission capable” is a highly ambiguous term that allows for a whole lot of gaming of accountability metrics. And it tells us very little. Still, it is worth noting that at a 55 percent mission capable rate, the F-35 fleet is well below program targets of 90 percent for the F-35A (Air Force) and 85 percent for the fighter’s F-35B (Marine Corps) and F-35C (Navy) variants. In other words, the F-35 fleet as a whole is nowhere near meeting its mission capability goal of being able to do anything at all.
However, there is another metric that is more useful: “full mission capable.” It turns out that “full mission capable” F-35s are supposed to be able to perform all the missions for which they were contracted, including combat-oriented missions, surveillance, training, testing, show of force, etcetera. This metric is not often publicized, but in the case of the F-35, the watchdog side of the GAO actually did a detailed report of the problems and issues with the F-35 that included how the F-35 fleet looked from the “full mission capable” perspective.

Even for someone who is an F-35 realist, the results are shocking. Not only is the F-35 fleet’s full mission capable rate in the neighborhood of 30 percent (see table on page 96 of the report), the full mission capable rate of the Marine Corps’ F-35B was a miserable 15.5 percent in March 2023. More current full mission capable rates have not been published, but given the program’s ongoing problems and issues, including unreliable engines that are now under-specced due to feature creep, it is highly unlikely the situation has improved in the last year.
And then there is the fact that being fully mission capable is no indicator of how well the plane executes its missions. For example, the F-35 could be designated as mission capable for conducting close air support missions despite the fact the F-35 is the very antithesis of what a close air support plane should be and is not capable of executing genuine close air support.

But given the F-35’s unreliability, talking about full mission capability rates of anything approaching even 50 percent is a pipe dream. And it cannot be overemphasized that the F-35/Joint Strike Fighter has been in development since 1994, costing billions of dollars.

This brings us back to the question of just how many of the over 600 F-35s delivered to the U.S. military can provide significant, non-trivial combat ability. The answer is we really don’t know. But if we combine the F-35’s fragility with its very low full mission-capable and sortie generation rates, it probably isn’t many. Especially, when you think of how many decades and billions of dollars we have dumped into it.
Nevertheless, we will continue to dump billions of dollars into the F-35 program that is already “more than a decade delayed and $183 billion over its original plans” as long as the incestuous relationship between defense contractors, the military, and Congress is permitted to dominate defense procurement.


View attachment 66589
This pleases me very much. I've been like this in the house for the past 30 minutes.

I wonder how the the hell the Greeks will manage to maintain their F-35's. Their F-16's are so rusty, they got their own patina!
1457566.jpg
 

Oublious

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70 Percent or More of F-35s May Not Be Combat Capable​


A September 2023 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report on the F-35 revealed some shocking statistics on just how unready hundreds of billions of dollars worth of F-35s are to provide actual combat power. In fact, the report indicated that only 15 to 30 percent of F-35s may be capable of combat.

But if you were to read a typical article in the media, you might believe that, on average, some 55 percent of F-35s are combat-capable. However, you would be wrong. You see, when the average person sees a report declaring that 55 percent of F-35 combat aircraft are “mission capable,” they assume mission capable equals combat capable. But in doing so, they are being deceived.

The deception comes out of how the F-35 program office and the whole of the Department of Defense define “mission capable.” It turns out that the DoD definition of “mission capable” does not mean combat capable. What it means is that an aircraft can fly and perform at least one mission. So, a plane designated as mission capable might be capable of doing some type of combat, but it might not. Instead, the mission it might be capable of executing could be testing or training, or some other mission that does not involve combat. And even if it is considered capable of testing or training, it might not be capable of doing the full gamut of testing or training you would expect from a fully functional aircraft. Likewise, it could still be classified as mission capable even if it is only capable of executing a portion of the combat-type missions it is supposed to be able to perform.

Hence, within the environs of the military–industrial–congressional complex, “mission capable” is a highly ambiguous term that allows for a whole lot of gaming of accountability metrics. And it tells us very little. Still, it is worth noting that at a 55 percent mission capable rate, the F-35 fleet is well below program targets of 90 percent for the F-35A (Air Force) and 85 percent for the fighter’s F-35B (Marine Corps) and F-35C (Navy) variants. In other words, the F-35 fleet as a whole is nowhere near meeting its mission capability goal of being able to do anything at all.
However, there is another metric that is more useful: “full mission capable.” It turns out that “full mission capable” F-35s are supposed to be able to perform all the missions for which they were contracted, including combat-oriented missions, surveillance, training, testing, show of force, etcetera. This metric is not often publicized, but in the case of the F-35, the watchdog side of the GAO actually did a detailed report of the problems and issues with the F-35 that included how the F-35 fleet looked from the “full mission capable” perspective.

Even for someone who is an F-35 realist, the results are shocking. Not only is the F-35 fleet’s full mission capable rate in the neighborhood of 30 percent (see table on page 96 of the report), the full mission capable rate of the Marine Corps’ F-35B was a miserable 15.5 percent in March 2023. More current full mission capable rates have not been published, but given the program’s ongoing problems and issues, including unreliable engines that are now under-specced due to feature creep, it is highly unlikely the situation has improved in the last year.
And then there is the fact that being fully mission capable is no indicator of how well the plane executes its missions. For example, the F-35 could be designated as mission capable for conducting close air support missions despite the fact the F-35 is the very antithesis of what a close air support plane should be and is not capable of executing genuine close air support.

But given the F-35’s unreliability, talking about full mission capability rates of anything approaching even 50 percent is a pipe dream. And it cannot be overemphasized that the F-35/Joint Strike Fighter has been in development since 1994, costing billions of dollars.

This brings us back to the question of just how many of the over 600 F-35s delivered to the U.S. military can provide significant, non-trivial combat ability. The answer is we really don’t know. But if we combine the F-35’s fragility with its very low full mission-capable and sortie generation rates, it probably isn’t many. Especially, when you think of how many decades and billions of dollars we have dumped into it.
Nevertheless, we will continue to dump billions of dollars into the F-35 program that is already “more than a decade delayed and $183 billion over its original plans” as long as the incestuous relationship between defense contractors, the military, and Congress is permitted to dominate defense procurement.


View attachment 66589


I do think the share of complexity within the software of F35 is the biggest problem, almost 30 years ago when they started the project. First generation software engineers are all gone, how many software egnineers are changed? How does is work when you write a code for the the fighter when you are new? Will you need to study the software before you update it?


I have the feeling F35 will always go like that :D.
 

Merzifonlu

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I do think the share of complexity within the software of F35 is the biggest problem, almost 30 years ago when they started the project.
I think after a short while the software will not be a problem. I think the reliability of the hardware and short maintenance intervals will be the main problem.

Why do I think software is no longer a problem? Because if you prepare the desired output set in response to the desired input set, artificial intelligence software developers who automatically build the rest of the project are already operational. Or they will become operational shortly.

Since these will not age, code maintenance and updates also will not be an problem.

But I think that after the hardware matures, all the software must be created from scratch by these artificial intelligence systems.
 
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We MUST try to acquire F-35s; we must keep Kaan as a black box for everybody and hence Kaan should not join NATO exercises and missions. That should be done with the F-35s that we hopefully acquire; through acquiring F-35s we would be able to aid our air defense systems to detect and identify the F-35 as a preventive measure against HAF F-35s. We can further do range testing with our current and upcoming air defense systems and have the exact rcs profile in the library of our IADS. Furthermore, we can learn a lot about how the legendary sensor fusion is implemented in F-35 and also much can be learnt from AN/APG-81 for a country with our level of acquaintance with AESAs.

For these reasons a minimal amount of F-35s would suffice.
 

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70 Percent or More of F-35s May Not Be Combat Capable​


A September 2023 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report on the F-35 revealed some shocking statistics on just how unready hundreds of billions of dollars worth of F-35s are to provide actual combat power. In fact, the report indicated that only 15 to 30 percent of F-35s may be capable of combat.

But if you were to read a typical article in the media, you might believe that, on average, some 55 percent of F-35s are combat-capable. However, you would be wrong. You see, when the average person sees a report declaring that 55 percent of F-35 combat aircraft are “mission capable,” they assume mission capable equals combat capable. But in doing so, they are being deceived.

The deception comes out of how the F-35 program office and the whole of the Department of Defense define “mission capable.” It turns out that the DoD definition of “mission capable” does not mean combat capable. What it means is that an aircraft can fly and perform at least one mission. So, a plane designated as mission capable might be capable of doing some type of combat, but it might not. Instead, the mission it might be capable of executing could be testing or training, or some other mission that does not involve combat. And even if it is considered capable of testing or training, it might not be capable of doing the full gamut of testing or training you would expect from a fully functional aircraft. Likewise, it could still be classified as mission capable even if it is only capable of executing a portion of the combat-type missions it is supposed to be able to perform.

Hence, within the environs of the military–industrial–congressional complex, “mission capable” is a highly ambiguous term that allows for a whole lot of gaming of accountability metrics. And it tells us very little. Still, it is worth noting that at a 55 percent mission capable rate, the F-35 fleet is well below program targets of 90 percent for the F-35A (Air Force) and 85 percent for the fighter’s F-35B (Marine Corps) and F-35C (Navy) variants. In other words, the F-35 fleet as a whole is nowhere near meeting its mission capability goal of being able to do anything at all.
However, there is another metric that is more useful: “full mission capable.” It turns out that “full mission capable” F-35s are supposed to be able to perform all the missions for which they were contracted, including combat-oriented missions, surveillance, training, testing, show of force, etcetera. This metric is not often publicized, but in the case of the F-35, the watchdog side of the GAO actually did a detailed report of the problems and issues with the F-35 that included how the F-35 fleet looked from the “full mission capable” perspective.

Even for someone who is an F-35 realist, the results are shocking. Not only is the F-35 fleet’s full mission capable rate in the neighborhood of 30 percent (see table on page 96 of the report), the full mission capable rate of the Marine Corps’ F-35B was a miserable 15.5 percent in March 2023. More current full mission capable rates have not been published, but given the program’s ongoing problems and issues, including unreliable engines that are now under-specced due to feature creep, it is highly unlikely the situation has improved in the last year.
And then there is the fact that being fully mission capable is no indicator of how well the plane executes its missions. For example, the F-35 could be designated as mission capable for conducting close air support missions despite the fact the F-35 is the very antithesis of what a close air support plane should be and is not capable of executing genuine close air support.

But given the F-35’s unreliability, talking about full mission capability rates of anything approaching even 50 percent is a pipe dream. And it cannot be overemphasized that the F-35/Joint Strike Fighter has been in development since 1994, costing billions of dollars.

This brings us back to the question of just how many of the over 600 F-35s delivered to the U.S. military can provide significant, non-trivial combat ability. The answer is we really don’t know. But if we combine the F-35’s fragility with its very low full mission-capable and sortie generation rates, it probably isn’t many. Especially, when you think of how many decades and billions of dollars we have dumped into it.
Nevertheless, we will continue to dump billions of dollars into the F-35 program that is already “more than a decade delayed and $183 billion over its original plans” as long as the incestuous relationship between defense contractors, the military, and Congress is permitted to dominate defense procurement.


View attachment 66589
GI4gCW7XIAAMGtZ


Normally, the ability of one F-16C fighter jet to perform all missions is expected to be around 90%. You can see this in a statistics from 1995. In F-35s, this rate never reached 10%.

 

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GI4gCW7XIAAMGtZ


Normally, the ability of one F-16C fighter jet to perform all missions is expected to be around 90%. You can see this in a statistics from 1995. In F-35s, this rate never reached 10%.


This was the worst year for F-35s in 2016:

images-4.jpg



with this the year before:

images-5.jpg



This mc from 2020, but no fmc rates:

https://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2020/Index%20of%20Military%20Strength/TABLES/2021_IndexOfUSMilitaryStrength_TABLES_06-2.gif



This is similar for a range of years 2014-2017:

https://www.airforcetimes.com/resizer/i9IjOj2AQGIZvnA8j7IZfzcnLao=/1440x0/filters:format(jpg):quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/archetype/PCIKWYF4HZGV3LH3MI7TRE7CUI.jpg



Similarly:

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/15897.jpeg



This for other aircraft including F-22 for comparison:

https://d3lcr32v2pp4l1.cloudfront.net/Pictures/780xany/3/9/7/87397_missioncapableratesfalling_697728.jpg



This from 2022:

https://www.airforcetimes.com/resizer/b7YitSM9rrtJA092AkinKk-r0Ss=/1440x0/filters:format(jpg):quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/archetype/7XECM5WNZFAY5OTCNFIVLGIO54.jpg


Here (https://www.defensedaily.com/f-35-s...-pay-bonuses-for-improved-mc-rates/air-force/) F-35 FMC is reported as 54%.

Here (https://www.twz.com/blistering-highlights-from-the-latest-f-35-sustainment-hearing) it is mentioned that U.S. Navy's F-35Cs had FMC of 9% for the year 2021. Other reports show FMC dropped from around 40% in 2015 to 14% for F-35B in 2016. These are the lowest numbers I could find.

According to the F-35 and F-22 reports for "Director Operational Test and Evaluation" (https://www.dote.osd.mil/Portals/97/pub/reports/FY2023/dod/2023f-35jsf.pdf?ver=CwYFf-qisrEiTGhwDpzQmg==), the rates are similar for the two 5th gen fighters, although F-35 did record a slightly lower than average 2023 with 48% FMC and 61% MC.

The comparison between FMC of older gen aircraft with 5th gen fighters is not warranted as the more complex electronic systems, and esp. in the case of F-35 the complex mission set means the definitional requirements of FMC vs plain MC requirements hit F-35 harder than they would an older generation aircraft with a more straightforward mission set. But even those older generation aircraft meet the FMC requirements set very rarely:

https://www.gao.gov/assets/720/710799.png


Another point is that FMC rate graphs will always be sinusoidal curves starting at the maxima and dipping before recovering. The rate of recovery will vary, but it'd be more appropriate to compare FMCs of different aircraft with their respective time slices.
 
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