Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

Covert Cabal dropped their latest update on remaining Russian tanks. If you've never watched these guys, they give really good info using satellite imagery of Russian tank bases that they buy. If you're not interested in watching the video, here is the cliff notes.

Russia still has more than 4000 tanks, however, only 20% of those are in good / mediocre condition that can be fielded with minimal repairs. The other 80% range from needing substantial repair / overhaul before they could be fielded, to completely unrecoverable and only useful for spare parts (if at all). Furthermore, less than 5% of Russia's "newer" tanks are left in storage. The overwhelming majority of what's left available are old T-72s, T-62s and T-55s, which means a less effective tank force and higher expected casualties to complete the same objectives.

Russia has between 1.5-2 years at it's current rate of loss vs production / refurbishment before they'll start experiencing substantial shortages for their mechanized units and the replacement tanks that they will receive will continue to be older and less capable as they run out of modern T-72s and T-90s. It's extremely difficult to create new offensives against a dug in peer when you start experiencing significant shortages.

This is why it's so imporant for the West to continue to pour support into Ukraine through AT LEAST the end of 2025 and likely through the end of 2026. The $50 Billion loan backed by profits from frozen Russian assets is critical. The $40 Billion in support from NATO is critical. The $15 Billion each year until 2027 from the EU is critical. Germany increasing their funding $15 Billion (as they have proposed) is critical and another substantial package the likes of the current $61 Billion one the USA passed in 2024 will be critical.

On top of the continued supply of air defense systems, F-16s, artillery shells, mortar rounds, cruise / ballistic missiles, ATGMs etc, it's equally important that Ukraine continue to receive an influx of Western armor and artillery to replaces losses. Looking at the current rate if losses I estimate that Ukraine will likely need the following ADDITIONAL armor / artillery to be delivered between now and the summer of 2026.

- 100 Leopard 1A5 MBTs
- 50 Leopard 2A4/5/6 MBts
- 150 T-64 MBTs (refurbished)
- 100 T-72 MBTs
- 200 Bradley IFVs
- 200 BMP-1/2 IFVs
- 100 Marder IFVs
- 100 CV90 IFVs
- 100 Rosomak IFVs
- 100 Styker IFVs
- 300 M113 APCs
- 100 YPR-765 APCs
- 100 VAB APCs
- 54 RCH-155 155mm
- 54 CAESAR 155mm
- 54 M109 155mm
- 54 Bohdana 155mm
- 54 M777 155mm
- 36 Panzerhaubitze 2000 155mm
- 18 DITA 155mm
- 18 Krab 155mm
- 18 Archer 155mm

While that might seem like a lot, that's a very small percentage of what the West can produce / refurbish for Ukraine between now and summer 2026. Combined with consistent training of fresh troops to replenish their brigades Ukraine will have the capacity to make any advancement for Russia absolutely miserable and their vehicle losses are only going to get worse as they are forced to advance using less quality.

Russia currently controls just under 18% of Ukraine and their rate of advance has been extremely slow. They've taken approximately 1% of the country since the beginning of 2024 despite the weapons shortages they experienced at throughout the winter / spring. It's only going to get harder for the Russians as American and European aid pours in.

 

[Spitfire9]

you dont. According to Russia they are Russia now

I think that there are about 200 countries at the UN. How many recognise Kherson, for example, as being part of Russia? Russia, North Korea, Syria. Any others?

You could have an election in Kherson but what would be the point if south of the Dnipro people could not vote?

Even if there were a presidential election in Ukraine, the people would not vote for any candidate wanting the country to become part of Russia. What people in their right mind would want to vote their country's culture and independence away in favour of occupation by a foreign, totalitarian state? My country faced a similar threat in 1940. I think the prime minister spoke for the people when he said:

"...we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender..."

The Ukrainians have chosen to do much the same.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1809602854820180292

 

[Samba]

Covert Cabal dropped their latest update on remaining Russian tanks. If you've never watched these guys, they give really good info using satellite imagery of Russian tank bases that they buy. If you're not interested in watching the video, here is the cliff notes.

Russia still has more than 4000 tanks, however, only 20% of those are in good / mediocre condition that can be fielded with minimal repairs. The other 80% range from needing substantial repair / overhaul before they could be fielded, to completely unrecoverable and only useful for spare parts (if at all). Furthermore, less than 5% of Russia's "newer" tanks are left in storage. The overwhelming majority of what's left available are old T-72s, T-62s and T-55s, which means a less effective tank force and higher expected casualties to complete the same objectives.

Russia has between 1.5-2 years at it's current rate of loss vs production / refurbishment before they'll start experiencing substantial shortages for their mechanized units and the replacement tanks that they will receive will continue to be older and less capable as they run out of modern T-72s and T-90s. It's extremely difficult to create new offensives against a dug in peer when you start experiencing significant shortages.

This is why it's so imporant for the West to continue to pour support into Ukraine through AT LEAST the end of 2025 and likely through the end of 2026. The $50 Billion loan backed by profits from frozen Russian assets is critical. The $40 Billion in support from NATO is critical. The $15 Billion each year until 2027 from the EU is critical. Germany increasing their funding $15 Billion (as they have proposed) is critical and another substantial package the likes of the current $61 Billion one the USA passed in 2024 will be critical.

On top of the continued supply of air defense systems, F-16s, artillery shells, mortar rounds, cruise / ballistic missiles, ATGMs etc, it's equally important that Ukraine continue to receive an influx of Western armor and artillery to replaces losses. Looking at the current rate if losses I estimate that Ukraine will likely need the following ADDITIONAL armor / artillery to be delivered between now and the summer of 2026.

- 100 Leopard 1A5 MBTs
- 50 Leopard 2A4/5/6 MBts
- 150 T-64 MBTs (refurbished)
- 100 T-72 MBTs
- 200 Bradley IFVs
- 200 BMP-1/2 IFVs
- 100 Marder IFVs
- 100 CV90 IFVs
- 100 Rosomak IFVs
- 100 Styker IFVs
- 300 M113 APCs
- 100 YPR-765 APCs
- 100 VAB APCs
- 54 RCH-155 155mm
- 54 CAESAR 155mm
- 54 M109 155mm
- 54 Bohdana 155mm
- 54 M777 155mm
- 36 Panzerhaubitze 2000 155mm
- 18 DITA 155mm
- 18 Krab 155mm
- 18 Archer 155mm

While that might seem like a lot, that's a very small percentage of what the West can produce / refurbish for Ukraine between now and summer 2026. Combined with consistent training of fresh troops to replenish their brigades Ukraine will have the capacity to make any advancement for Russia absolutely miserable and their vehicle losses are only going to get worse as they are forced to advance using less quality.

Russia currently controls just under 18% of Ukraine and their rate of advance has been extremely slow. They've taken approximately 1% of the country since the beginning of 2024 despite the weapons shortages they experienced at throughout the winter / spring. It's only going to get harder for the Russians as American and European aid pours in.

This post clearly summarizes that Russia is at proxy war against NATO.

 

[blackjack]

Covert Cabal dropped their latest update on remaining Russian tanks. If you've never watched these guys, they give really good info using satellite imagery of Russian tank bases that they buy. If you're not interested in watching the video, here is the cliff notes.

Russia still has more than 4000 tanks, however, only 20% of those are in good / mediocre condition that can be fielded with minimal repairs. The other 80% range from needing substantial repair / overhaul before they could be fielded, to completely unrecoverable and only useful for spare parts (if at all). Furthermore, less than 5% of Russia's "newer" tanks are left in storage. The overwhelming majority of what's left available are old T-72s, T-62s and T-55s, which means a less effective tank force and higher expected casualties to complete the same objectives.

Russia has between 1.5-2 years at it's current rate of loss vs production / refurbishment before they'll start experiencing substantial shortages for their mechanized units and the replacement tanks that they will receive will continue to be older and less capable as they run out of modern T-72s and T-90s. It's extremely difficult to create new offensives against a dug in peer when you start experiencing significant shortages.

This is why it's so imporant for the West to continue to pour support into Ukraine through AT LEAST the end of 2025 and likely through the end of 2026. The $50 Billion loan backed by profits from frozen Russian assets is critical. The $40 Billion in support from NATO is critical. The $15 Billion each year until 2027 from the EU is critical. Germany increasing their funding $15 Billion (as they have proposed) is critical and another substantial package the likes of the current $61 Billion one the USA passed in 2024 will be critical.

On top of the continued supply of air defense systems, F-16s, artillery shells, mortar rounds, cruise / ballistic missiles, ATGMs etc, it's equally important that Ukraine continue to receive an influx of Western armor and artillery to replaces losses. Looking at the current rate if losses I estimate that Ukraine will likely need the following ADDITIONAL armor / artillery to be delivered between now and the summer of 2026.

- 100 Leopard 1A5 MBTs
- 50 Leopard 2A4/5/6 MBts
- 150 T-64 MBTs (refurbished)
- 100 T-72 MBTs
- 200 Bradley IFVs
- 200 BMP-1/2 IFVs
- 100 Marder IFVs
- 100 CV90 IFVs
- 100 Rosomak IFVs
- 100 Styker IFVs
- 300 M113 APCs
- 100 YPR-765 APCs
- 100 VAB APCs
- 54 RCH-155 155mm
- 54 CAESAR 155mm
- 54 M109 155mm
- 54 Bohdana 155mm
- 54 M777 155mm
- 36 Panzerhaubitze 2000 155mm
- 18 DITA 155mm
- 18 Krab 155mm
- 18 Archer 155mm

While that might seem like a lot, that's a very small percentage of what the West can produce / refurbish for Ukraine between now and summer 2026. Combined with consistent training of fresh troops to replenish their brigades Ukraine will have the capacity to make any advancement for Russia absolutely miserable and their vehicle losses are only going to get worse as they are forced to advance using less quality.

Russia currently controls just under 18% of Ukraine and their rate of advance has been extremely slow. They've taken approximately 1% of the country since the beginning of 2024 despite the weapons shortages they experienced at throughout the winter / spring. It's only going to get harder for the Russians as American and European aid pours in.

Russia has 3,600 tanks left.....I dont know where your guy is getting his information but the global fire power source for 2024 made a list. https://dzen.ru/a/ZhXDcthuIy5yiyE1?ysclid=lyaqh5zajt679382393

2024 Military Strength Ranking

Ranking the nations of the world based on current available firepower.

www.globalfirepower.com

It seems they dropped from 13th to 18th place

If I was in your position living in Canada I would immediately move to the US and start campaigning hard for Biden to win. I dont trust Trump calling Zelensky a salesman, saying his country is losing and that they have spent too much money on them. There is a reason why Zelensky got scared of getting interviewed by Tucker Carlson.

 

[Relic]

This post clearly summarizes that Russia is at proxy war against NATO.

Of course they are. Anybody that would try to convince you otherwise is delusional.

The obvious goal of NATO and it's allies is to take advantage of Russia's mistep in Ukraine and destroy Russia's Soviet stockpile of weapons, which is irreplaceable for Russia as it's economy exists now. We're able to clean out our inventories of old weapons and have an excuse to purchase all new kit, while simultaneously ruining Russia's ability to project conventional hard power into Europe for a generation.

I'm highly skeptical that Ukraine will get all of its territory back. I suspect that this war will end in some kind of less than ideal negotiation that is less than ideal for Ukraine, with a DMZ of sorts seperatating the two nations, but it's imperative that as long as Ukraine still has the will power to fight and spill the blood of their men and women, that we continue to support them as a means of accomplishing our geopolitical goal... Which again, is the destruction of Russia's Soviet stockpile that Putin routinely uses to militarily bully his neigbours.

Meanwhile, in the last 2.5 years (since the outset of the conflict) NATO has ordered more $800 Billion usd worth of new military equipment, to replace the stuff that we've sent Ukraine. A couple examples...

Germany created a $107 Billion usd fund to purchase new MBTs, IFVs, artillery, fighter jets, air defense missiles, artillery shells and much more for their military.

Poland ordered 1250 MBTs, 1000 IFVs, new fighter jets, attack helicopters, fighter jets, air defense systems, etc.

Britain is spending $100 Billion usd to ramp up the procurement of fighter jets, MBTs, Artillery, IFVs, air defense systems, artillery shells and naval assets.

Canada is spending $19 Billion usd to purchase nearly 100 F-35s, $60 Billion usd to purchase 15 new destroyers and $8 Billion usd to help the USA revamp the NORAD detection system.

Turkey is spending $23 Billion usd to purchase 40 new F-16s and upgrade 79 of their existing aircraft to the latest standard. They are also starting mass production of new domestically built MBTs, among other projects.

That's just a small sampling of the military hardware that NATO has ordered in response to the Russian invasion. Russia's military will undoubtedly leave the war in Ukraine in a much worst state than it was in when it entered the war. Their material losses make that inevitable. Meanwhile, NATO is poised to leave the war stronger than ever, bolstered by the addition of Sweden and Finland and strong post-war guarantees for the remaing 80'ish% of Ukraine.

 

[Spitfire9]

The obvious goal of NATO and it's allies is to take advantage of Russia's mistep in Ukraine and destroy Russia's Soviet stockpile of weapons, which is irreplaceable for Russia as it's economy exists now. We're able to clean out our inventories of old weapons and have an excuse to purchase all new kit, while simultaneously ruining Russia's ability to project conventional hard power into Europe for a generation.

I agree. The withholding of able weaponry (tanks, fighters, HIMARS, ATACMS etc) when this was a mobile war that Ukraine could win made no sense if Ukraine's suppliers wanted to liberate Ukraine. The restriction on use of ATACMS, leaving Ukraine open to attack from Russian bases makes no sense either except in the context of limiting Ukraine's capacity to defend itself, thereby prolonging the war and increasing attrition of Russian materiel and finances.

Defence of freedom and democracy in Ukraine appears to come a poor second to a long term weakening of Russia in NATO (US) thinking.

 

[Relic]

I agree. The withholding of able weaponry (tanks, fighters, HIMARS, ATACMS etc) when this was a mobile war that Ukraine could win made no sense if Ukraine's suppliers wanted to liberate Ukraine. The restriction on use of ATACMS, leaving Ukraine open to attack from Russian bases makes no sense either except in the context of limiting Ukraine's capacity to defend itself, thereby prolonging the war and increasing attrition of Russian materiel and finances.

Defence of freedom and democracy in Ukraine appears to come a poor second to a long term weakening of Russia in NATO (US) thinking.

I think you're over simplifying some things here. There were both geopolitical and technical reasons Ukraine didn't receive everything that they are receiving now. It WAS NOT primarily to prolong the war, despite what you think.

Main Battle Tanks: Nobody was about to send more than they could afford to send and leave their own military in dire straits. Many Western countries had tank fleets that were in a state of terrible disrepair. Significant refurbishment has happened in order to free tanks up for shipment to Ukraine. And while you're often pointing to America specifically, they said from the beginning that they would not be sending Abrams tanks with depleted uranium armor because they didn't want it to fall into Russian hands. As a result, the 31 units that Ukraine received were rebuilt without the DU armor, specifically for export. The only reason they even sent a battalion worth is because that's the deal they made with Germany to send Leopard 2s and free other European countries up to do thw same. Lastly, it took numerous months of training to bring Ukrainians up on the utilization and maintenence of Abrams, Leopards and Challengers This further delayed deliveries of Western MBTs. You can't just rush them into theatre and say "figure it out". Ukrainians needed to travel around Europe to learn how to use them.

Fighter Jets: These should have been announced earlier, but were held back and used as an escalation tool. That was the obvious cause for initial delay. However, there were two other significant reasons that they weren't donated immediately. First, Ukraine's air defense network took a lot of time to build up and still isn't where they'd like it to be. It is drastically improved, however. The West was not going to send precious fighter jets to Ukraine when the Ukrainians didn't have the capacity to defend them. Russia would have hammered them on the ground like sitting ducks. Second, training to fly, maintain and house a new fleet of fighter jets is a monumental task. There is SO much that goes into it, especially if the Jets are nothing like the ones you're currently using. You have to re-teach everything right down to doctrine. Even the fact that Ukraine will likely get their first F-16s in roughly a 1 year time frame from when they were announced is impressive. It's often a 5+ year lead time for a modern airforce to receive a brand new platform. Ultimately, the F-16s are arriving later than they should have, but there was no reality in which they were able to be delivered, sustained, protected and used capably in the 12-18 months of the war.

HIMARS: USA announced the transfer of the first 16 units back in July of 2022, less than 5 months after Russia invaded Ukraine. It took several months for Congress to pass an aid package with enough Presidential Drawdown Authority to even allow the Americans to ship HIMARS with GMLRS. There was VERY LITTLE delay in sending this weapon as soon as money was made available to make sending them a reality. In the scale of a 3+ year war (which this will be), if you're going to argue 1-2 months here are or there, you're being completely unreasonable when it comes to political decisions, followed by military training, logistics and delivery. It takes at least some time, and a couple months is reasonable.

ATACMS: USA made it clear that they did not have enough ATACMS in their strategic arsenal to send them earlier in the war. That changed for two reasons. In December of 2023 the U.S. Army received their first PrSM's (ATACMS replacement) and will receive a steady stream of them in batches throughout 2024. As a result, they were then able to transfer a similar number of ATACMS to Ukraine. The second reason that ATACMS were delayed was because of production. Lockheed Martin was producing 250-300 units per year prior to the war, almost exclusively for export to U.S. allies as the Americans held out for PrSM to come online. Lockheed Martin announced the expansion of ATACMS missile production in 2022, but said at the time that it would need approximately 1 year to bring production up to their target of 500-550 units per year, creating extra inventory that wasn't already purchased via contract. As spare capacity came online, USA became more comfortable sending ATACMS, knowing that they could purchase more to backfill their own inventories, or use USAI money to send ATACMS right off the assembly line to Ukraine.

You're simplifying everything down to simple delays, but the reality is that there are logical reasons why MOST items that people wanted delivered quickly faced lead times prior to being announced and, ultimately, delivered.

 

[contricusc]

ATACMS: USA made it clear that they did not have enough ATACMS in their strategic arsenal to send them earlier in the war.

Let’s be serious here, and don’t take their excuses at face value. The US could have easily survived without a few ATACMS earlier in the war. How many ATACMS did the US fire during all this time they denied Ukraine access to them? Yep, zero, because they didn’t need them for anything.

The US war machine is not cenetered on ATACMS for anything. If they need to strike something, they have a lot of alternatives, so giving Ukraine a few ATACMS earlier in the war when they would have made a bigger difference and taken Russia by surprise, that would have had zero impact on US ability to project power.

It is simply an excuse, nothing more. And the fact that it is just an excuse and not a real reason is proven by the current situation when they still deny Ukraine the right to srike with them as deep as they want in Russia’s territory. It doesn’t cost the US anything to allow Ukraine proper use of the weapons, but they don’t do it because they want the war to drag for as long as possible, and keep all the “escalation” options for later, in case Ukraine struggles to defend and needs a boost.

I have zero trust in this US administration. What they do has nothing to do with what they say. Everything is political games and deception for them. The withdrawal from Afghanistan was botched on purpose to create the impression of weakness and incompetence in order to encourage Putin to act on Ukraine. All their messages have been designed in a way to encourage Putin to invade. And once he fell in the trap, they started to drip feed weapons and information in order to keep Ukraine in the fight, but give the Russians the impression that if they fight long enough, they can win.

Trump is right with one thing. If he was president, this war would have never happened, as he would have told Putin not to invade. But this administration has other priorities, and for them this war is a huge success, because it destroys Russia’s economy and its weapons stockpiles for a generation, and it has also cut the relations between Europe and Russia. The people who died needlessly do not matter for these criminals.

 

[Spitfire9]

MBT
I recall that various countries wanted to send Leopards. That was delayed and it was only when UK announced it was transferring Challengers that decisions were made to allow the transfer of Leopards and Abrams.

Fighters
I recall that various countries wanted to send MiG-29's. That was delayed. F-16's were delayed.

ATACMS
Delayed. Not allowed to be used to best effect to reduce Russian strikes. Full support - my ass!

NATO/US - having vowed to support Ukraine - decided rather imperiously that they knew better than Ukraine what weapons it needed to defend itself and refused to supply until it was clear that their 'management' of what weapons Ukraine needed was drastically wrong, resulting in Ukraine losing in the war. Now Ukraine has more weapons and is not losing badly but cannot win a ground war - Russia was given too much time to build solid defences. I call that prolonging the war.

Did anyone notice a delay of months or years in supplying Israel with munitions so it could demolish Gaza? That's the irony between Ukraine and Gaza. US was swift to send weapons to Israel so it could attack Gaza, slow to send weapons to Ukraine so it could defend against attack by Russia. Quick to support the invader, slow to support the invaded.

I think that the US has little concern for Ukraine and its dying people and is content for that to go on and on so long as the stalemate weakens Russia more and more. Concern for defending democracy against attack by totalitarianism appears painfully absent.

 

[FiReFTW]

I think you're over simplifying some things here. There were both geopolitical and technical reasons Ukraine didn't receive everything that they are receiving now. It WAS NOT primarily to prolong the war, despite what you think.

Main Battle Tanks: Nobody was about to send more than they could afford to send and leave their own military in dire straits. Many Western countries had tank fleets that were in a state of terrible disrepair. Significant refurbishment has happened in order to free tanks up for shipment to Ukraine. And while you're often pointing to America specifically, they said from the beginning that they would not be sending Abrams tanks with depleted uranium armor because they didn't want it to fall into Russian hands. As a result, the 31 units that Ukraine received were rebuilt without the DU armor, specifically for export. The only reason they even sent a battalion worth is because that's the deal they made with Germany to send Leopard 2s and free other European countries up to do thw same. Lastly, it took numerous months of training to bring Ukrainians up on the utilization and maintenence of Abrams, Leopards and Challengers This further delayed deliveries of Western MBTs. You can't just rush them into theatre and say "figure it out". Ukrainians needed to travel around Europe to learn how to use them.

Fighter Jets: These should have been announced earlier, but were held back and used as an escalation tool. That was the obvious cause for initial delay. However, there were two other significant reasons that they weren't donated immediately. First, Ukraine's air defense network took a lot of time to build up and still isn't where they'd like it to be. It is drastically improved, however. The West was not going to send precious fighter jets to Ukraine when the Ukrainians didn't have the capacity to defend them. Russia would have hammered them on the ground like sitting ducks. Second, training to fly, maintain and house a new fleet of fighter jets is a monumental task. There is SO much that goes into it, especially if the Jets are nothing like the ones you're currently using. You have to re-teach everything right down to doctrine. Even the fact that Ukraine will likely get their first F-16s in roughly a 1 year time frame from when they were announced is impressive. It's often a 5+ year lead time for a modern airforce to receive a brand new platform. Ultimately, the F-16s are arriving later than they should have, but there was no reality in which they were able to be delivered, sustained, protected and used capably in the 12-18 months of the war.

HIMARS: USA announced the transfer of the first 16 units back in July of 2022, less than 5 months after Russia invaded Ukraine. It took several months for Congress to pass an aid package with enough Presidential Drawdown Authority to even allow the Americans to ship HIMARS with GMLRS. There was VERY LITTLE delay in sending this weapon as soon as money was made available to make sending them a reality. In the scale of a 3+ year war (which this will be), if you're going to argue 1-2 months here are or there, you're being completely unreasonable when it comes to political decisions, followed by military training, logistics and delivery. It takes at least some time, and a couple months is reasonable.

ATACMS: USA made it clear that they did not have enough ATACMS in their strategic arsenal to send them earlier in the war. That changed for two reasons. In December of 2023 the U.S. Army received their first PrSM's (ATACMS replacement) and will receive a steady stream of them in batches throughout 2024. As a result, they were then able to transfer a similar number of ATACMS to Ukraine. The second reason that ATACMS were delayed was because of production. Lockheed Martin was producing 250-300 units per year prior to the war, almost exclusively for export to U.S. allies as the Americans held out for PrSM to come online. Lockheed Martin announced the expansion of ATACMS missile production in 2022, but said at the time that it would need approximately 1 year to bring production up to their target of 500-550 units per year, creating extra inventory that wasn't already purchased via contract. As spare capacity came online, USA became more comfortable sending ATACMS, knowing that they could purchase more to backfill their own inventories, or use USAI money to send ATACMS right off the assembly line to Ukraine.

You're simplifying everything down to simple delays, but the reality is that there are logical reasons why MOST items that people wanted delivered quickly faced lead times prior to being announced and, ultimately, delivered.

One word : Ignorant

 

[Relic]

Ukraine has lost the following important American systems to damage / destruction since the outset of the war. Some of the damaged equipment will have been repaired and returned to combat, but given we don't know those numbers, I'm going to be conservative and count everything damaged as lost...

Bradley M2-ODS IFVs
Received: 300
Damaged / Destroyed: 92
Remaining: 208

Stryker APCs
Received: 189
Damaged / Destroyed: 11
Remaining: 178

M113 APCs
Received: 859
Damaged / Destroyed: 124
Remaining: 735

M777 155mm Howitzers
Received: 197
Damaged / Destroyed: 94
Remaining: 103

M109 155mm Howitzers
Received: 175
Damaged / Destroyed: 64
Remaining: 111

The good news is that USA still posseses large quantities of almosy all of those core systems.

100 additional Bradleys would more than replace all of the attrition that Ukraine has experienced... USA has approximately 1800-2000 units left in storage and more than 2000 units in active use.

50 additional Strykers would represent 5x the losses that Ukraines has experienced to this point... USA has several hundred units in storage and more than 4000 units in active use.

250 additional M113s would 2x the losses Ukraine has suffered to this point... USA has 5000 units in active use and several thousands more in various states of repair in storage.

75 additional M109s would completely replace Ukraine's losses to this point... USA has approximately 750 units in active service and 850 additional units in storage.

100 additional M777 would completely replace Ukraine's losses experienced throughout the war... USA has approximately 700 remaining between the Marine Corps and Army. This is probably the only core system that USA is starting to get close to their limit for donating before it would start impacting active units. That said, they have roughly 300 M198 howitzers in storage. The system roughly compares to the Soviet D-30 system. USA could send all these stored systems to replace M777 losses, rather than dig further into its M777 stockpile.

Needless to say, USA can comfortably continue to provide Ukraine with significant quantities of armor and artillery for the foreseeable future.

 

[Relic]

One word : Ignorant

Interesting. The one I reserve for you is: Simple

 

[Relic]

MBT
I recall that various countries wanted to send Leopards. That was delayed and it was only when UK announced it was transferring Challengers that decisions were made to allow the transfer of Leopards and Abrams.

Fighters
I recall that various countries wanted to send MiG-29's. That was delayed. F-16's were delayed.

ATACMS
Delayed. Not allowed to be used to best effect to reduce Russian strikes. Full support - my ass!

NATO/US - having vowed to support Ukraine - decided rather imperiously that they knew better than Ukraine what weapons it needed to defend itself and refused to supply until it was clear that their 'management' of what weapons Ukraine needed was drastically wrong, resulting in Ukraine losing in the war. Now Ukraine has more weapons and is not losing badly but cannot win a ground war - Russia was given too much time to build solid defences. I call that prolonging the war.

Did anyone notice a delay of months or years in supplying Israel with munitions so it could demolish Gaza? That's the irony between Ukraine and Gaza. US was swift to send weapons to Israel so it could attack Gaza, slow to send weapons to Ukraine so it could defend against attack by Russia. Quick to support the invader, slow to support the invaded.

I think that the US has little concern for Ukraine and its dying people and is content for that to go on and on so long as the stalemate weakens Russia more and more. Concern for defending democracy against attack by totalitarianism appears painfully absent.

1). Nobody stopped Poland or Slovakia from sending their Mig-29s to Ukraine. Those countries were demanding that other NATO countries fill the gap in air coverage for their countries before they would send their aircraft to Ukraine. The Czechs made an agreement with the Slovaks and the Americans made an agreement with the Poles, at which point both countries sent their Mig-29s. It's completely unreasonable to suggest that those airframes should have been sent to Ukraine before there were agreements in place to defend those country's respective air spaces.

2). Various countries were pressuring Germany to send Leopard 2s to Ukraine. Germany said "no" unless the Americans and British were willing to send MBTs as well. When both agreed, with Britain taking the lead, Germany send some of their MBTs and allowed others to do the same. That said, Poland , Czech Republic , Slovakia , USA , Netherlands , Slovenia and Bulgaria were already in the midst of sending hundreds of T-72 and PT-91 and T-55 MBTs to Ukraine. MBTs were being sent from early on in the conflict, it was only Western made units that were delayed for political reasons.

3). I already explained the four reasons that ATACMS were delayed. 1. Escalation fears. 2. Lack of quantity in U.S. inventories. 3. Awaiting PrSMs arrival. 4. Awaiting Lockheed Martin's production ramp up. A 5th reason that I should have mentioned is that dozens of M-39 variants were sent back to Lockheed Martin for refurbishment. That also took time. When they were refurbished, they were sent to Ukraine in tranches. You've WAY over simplified the ATACMS conversation... Meanwhile, USA , Germany , Britain , France and Italy have sent more than 7000 GMLRS rockets to Ukraine for use with their HIMARS / M270s.

4). The Israel argument is completely ridiculous and has nothing in common with Ukraine. USA is sending the Israeli ammunition for systems that they already use. 155mm artillery shells for the M109s that Israel already uses. Tamir interceptors for Iron Dome, which they already use. 500lb and 2000lb bombs with JDAMS that Israel already uses with their F-15s, F-16s and F-35s. Hellfire missiles and APKWS rockets that they already use with their Apache helicopters. USA has not sent Ukraine a single new weapon system that we are aware of as military aid since the outset of the conflict. They've continued to supply Israel with munitions for the weapons systems that they already used prior to October 7th. USA has also been sending vast quantities of munitions to Ukraine FOR THE SYSTEMS that Ukraine has in their inventories. That's not limited to to American made weapons for the record. They purchased 90 T-72 MBTs for Ukraine from Czech inventories. They purchased 10,000 203mm artillery rounds from suppliers in Eastern Europe. They purchased 400,000 152mm artillery shells from Bulgaria , Poland , Serbia , etc. They purchased 40,000 130mm artillery shells from Bulgaria . They purchased 60,000 122mm GRAD rockets from around the world. They transfered 20 MI-17 Russian made helicopters to Ukraine. None of these are American made weapons or munitions. USA bought them from around the world to support to existing Ukrainian military, while they trained them to use Western systems... The military situations in Ukraine on February 24th, 2022 and Israel on October 7th 2023 were NOTHING alike and the way USA can help the two respective countries is completely different in scope and nature.

 

[blackjack]

This might sound like a conspiracy theory, but does anyone think this war is like already staged with who the winners or losers will already be?

Russia stated they have like 700k troops in the operation, but they won't give a rough estimate how much Ukrainian soldiers they think are left or how much Ukraine is able to pull from the mobilization pool a day for the losses they inflict on the Ukrainians.

Ukraine can state how much soldiers they have and how much they can recruit while giving an estimate how much Russian soldiers they think are left or their estimated losses.

Instead, these past 2 years both sides gave us nothing and instead generated a lot of pro-ukraine and pro-russian autists slap fighting each other all over the internet

 

[Relic]

This might sound like a conspiracy theory, but does anyone think this war is like already staged with who the winners or losers will already be?

Russia stated they have like 700k troops in the operation, but they won't give a rough estimate how much Ukrainian soldiers they think are left or how much Ukraine is able to pull from the mobilization pool a day for the losses they inflict on the Ukrainians.

Ukraine can state how much soldiers they have and how much they can recruit while giving an estimate how much Russian soldiers they think are left or their estimated losses.

Instead, these past 2 years both sides gave us nothing and instead generated a lot of pro-ukraine and pro-russian autists slap fighting each other all over the internet

I absolutely think that Russia and the West have back channel discussions about what the real "red lines" are, not the silly ones that the likes of Biden and Putin state publically to their populations. I don't think the outcome is predetermined as much as it's the case that the rules are drawn up and mostly adhered to, with both sides trying to push the limits of what the other will accept.

I absolutely think it's true that politicians use military personnel in all countries as ponds in the geopolitical power game and no side is immune to that criticism. Self-interest absolutely drives war and neither side in the Russia vs Ukraine war is morally superior in defending and / or expanding their respective self interests.

I do not, however, think the war has a predetermined outcome. I simply think there is more agreed upon "structure" to it than mostly would believe.

 

[Relic]

John Healy, the new British Defense Minister announced a new military aid package for Ukraine today. The package is valued at $640 million usd and contains the following:

- 10 AS-90 155mm howitzers
- 90 Brimstone anti-armor missiles
- 250,000 .50 caliber rounds
- 50 small military boats
- 40 demining vehicles
- 61 armored bulldozer
- 32 AS-90 howitzers barrels
- Spare parts for AS-90 howitzers

UK's defense secretary announces new military aid package for Ukraine - Euromaidan Press

Less than 48 hours after his appointment, Britain's new defense secretary announced more military aid for Ukraine, including more artillery guns, a quarter of a million ammunition rounds and nearly 100 precision Brimstone missiles.

euromaidanpress.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1809992831840240065

 

[Deliorman]

How many kids died in the Kiev pediatric hospital today thanks to Russian Kinzhals? I bet that these Ukrainians Nazis were hiding munitions next to the hemodialisys machines and the MRIs...

 

[Relic]

This morning Russia fired two Iskander-M ballistic missiles that caused severe damage to Ukraine's Ohmatdyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv, the largest Children's hospital in the country. The cancer ward in the hospital was completely destroyed. 36 Ukrainian civilians were killed in today's strikes.

This particularly heinous strike comes just as NATO Leaders gather in Washington. Several leaders have already released statements condemning the attack directly on sick children. One can hope that this is a galvanizing moment for the NATO leaders. This is who Vladimir Putin is and this is what he wants for Ukraine. If they will not agree to become a Russian puppet state, he wants the country completely destroyed.

Time for NATO to step up and put their money, equipment and industrial capacity where their mouths are. There is a $40 Billion NATO package on the table right now to be voted on. At the very least they should agree to that package, but in reality, they should double it as middle finger to Putin.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7256892

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1810380385462972780

3 HIMARS MLRS systems to prepared positions in the area of the settlement of Klapaya, Kherson region. The reconnaissance drone transmitted the location data to the crew of the Iskander-M OTRK launcher and a missile strike, destroyed all 3 vehicles at once, including a dozen foreign specialists.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1810214631337586885

Hijacking of Tu-22 bomber plane was prevented at the last minute!

Russia’s security service says it has foiled Ukraine’s attempt to hijack a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber.

Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) officials said on Monday that they had foiled Ukraine’s attempt to hijack a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber.

“Ukrainian intelligence aimed to recruit a Russian military pilot in exchange for a cash reward and Italian citizenship and persuade him to fly and land a bomber in Ukraine,” the FSB said in a statement on its website.

Reuters could not independently verify the details. Ukraine did not immediately comment. The FSB added that during the operation, Russia received information that helped Russian forces strike the Ozerne airfield in northwestern Ukraine.