Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Soldier30

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An episode of work in the Zaporizhia region of Ukraine, servicemen of the Stavropol airborne assault regiment of the Russian group of troops "Dnepr". The mobile crew uses, presumably, a homemade buggy, armed with an ATGM "Kornet". ATGM "Kornet" is capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 8000 meters. The tactics of such crews, rapid movement to a given position and leaving it. Presumably, a stronghold of the Ukrainian army was fired upon.

 

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The video shows a Russian drone from the Okhotnik special forces unit of the 51st Guards Army of the Southern Group of Forces attacking a Ukrainian robotic transport platform. The Russian drone carried out the attack by dropping ammunition. The model of the Ukrainian robotic transport platform could not be determined, judging by the video, the transport robot was transporting provisions.

 

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Footage of an attack by a Ukrainian drone, presumably of the Baba Yaga type, on a Russian Tor-M2 air defense system in the Zaporizhia direction. The operator of the Ukrainian drone spotted the Russian Tor-M2 air defense system and dropped ammunition on it several times. After the first explosion, the driver of the Russian air defense system quickly got his bearings and drove the combat vehicle out of the line of fire at full speed. Judging by the video, the air defense system may have received minor damage.

 

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Footage of the attack of the Russian FPV drone "Prince Vandal Novgorodsky" on the Ukrainian IFV CV9040C, the video was filmed in the Kursk region of Russia. The CV90 IFV is produced in Sweden, it has very good protection. The CV90 IFV is controlled by 3 people, it can carry up to 4 troops. The CV90 IFV is equipped with a Bofors L / 70 automatic cannon with a caliber of 40 mm. The CV90 IFV was attacked by two Vandal drones, both hit the turret. Presumably, at the time of the attack, the Ukrainian CV90 IFV had already been abandoned by the crew.

 

Spitfire9

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So true Russia also has a demographic issue especially ethnic Russians. Russians also fear more Non Ethnic Russians living in Russia like the Chechens, Buryats, Yakuts, Tuvans, Tatars, Azerbaijanis and Georgians hence why most are getting conscripted into the meat grinder.
It is difficult to ascertain what is going on in Russia (data are withheld by the state, data falsified by the state etc) but it looks like there is currently an acute shortage of labour, depressing the viability of Russian industry. If the economy does not enter severe recession, due to many enterprises going bankrupt and halting their activities (which require labour), more labour is needed from countries other than Russia.

If Russians are xenophobic, too bad. If they want an economy that functions they will have to put with up with undesirable non-Russians living among them. Personally I hope that Russians won't have to put up with that. Their economy is currently being wrecked by Putin's war. As the economy goes down, the need for immigrant labour should also go down.

To me what would best prevent Russia invading neighbouring states would be if Russia were so weak financially and industrially that it did not have the means to wage war against any other state. As it happens, that is exactly the direction in which the tyrant in control of the place is taking his country. So, keep up the good work, Vladimir! It is in the long term interest of your neighbours and the rest of the world.

PS This extract from an article in the UK 'Financial Times' suggests that Putin is in deep trouble due to the financial problems he has caused by invading Ukraine.

Putin, in short, does not have time on his side. He sits on a ticking financial time bomb of his own making. The key for Ukraine’s friends is to deny him the one thing that would defuse it: greater access to external funds.

The west has blocked Moscow’s access to some $300bn in reserves, put spanners in the works of its oil trade and hit its ability to import a range of goods. Combined, these prevent Russia from spending all its foreign earnings to relieve resource constraints at home. Intensifying sanctions and finally transferring reserves to Ukraine as a down payment on reparations would intensify those constraints.

Putin’s obsession is the sudden collapse of power. That, as he must be realising, is the risk his war economics has set in motion. Making it recede, by increasing access to external resources through sanctions relief, will be his goal in any diplomacy. The west must convince him that this will not happen. That, and only that, will force Putin to choose between his assault on Ukraine and his grip on power at home.


Who knows, Trump might take steps to intensify Putin's weakness and increase pressure on Russia. A continuation of US support for Ukraine, so a continuation of hostilities and Kremlin spending on the war, would deny Russia any financial respite. Putin would be left in a position where a breakdown of the Russian economy would look more and more inevitable unless Russia, rather than Ukrraine, called for a ceasefire and 'peace talks'.
 
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Relic

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The incoming U.S. Government has begun to layout what it intends on demanding of Ukraine to continue providing them military support into 2025 and beyond. Today, incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz laid a out a couple of those demands.

1. The U.S. wants Ukraine to lower its conscription age to 18 years old. As it stands right now, the Ukrainian conscription age is 25 years old. The Trump Government believes that the West can provide Ukraine with the technology it needs to achieve a stalemate and force Putin to the negotiating table under favorable terms for the West and Ukraine, but not before Ukraine calls up hundreds of thousands of more soldiers that will exhaust Russian advances at the front. Paraphrasing, Waltz today said "If Ukraine wants the West to be all in, they have to show that they're all in. They have hundreds of thousands of men age 18-24 that can be called up to negate Russia's current manpower advantage at the front."

2. They want Ukraine to realistic about what can territory can be regained. Having the position "we won't surrender an inch of former Ukrainian territory" is not something USA thinks is realistic. As a result, the Americans believe that Ukraine has to have achievable goals at the negotiating table.

 

contricusc

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Paraphrasing, Waltz today said "If Ukraine wants the West to be all in, they have to show that they're all in. They have hundreds of thousands of men age 18-24 that can be called up to negate Russia's current manpower advantage at the front."

What a disgusting scum this guy is. In his hypocrisy, he considers the West giving some excess weapons to Ukraine as being “all-in”, and this to be the equivalent of calling up all young males to die at the frontline.

If he wants Ukraine to be “all-in”, what about the West joining the war with air power and bombing all Russian positions inside Ukraine and 500 km from the border? Not even this would be all in, at it won’t include ground troops, where you get most of the losses, but at least you could say the West is also taking some risks as well.

As things stand right now, Ukraine is doing huge sacrificies to sustain the war, but it is not yet all-in. At the same time, the hypocritical West is throwing scraps at the war in form of weapons and money while not risking any soldier’s life. If someone needs to raise the ante, it is the West, not Ukraine.

What a clown!
 

Relic

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What a disgusting scum this guy is. In his hypocrisy, he considers the West giving some excess weapons to Ukraine as being “all-in”, and this to be the equivalent of calling up all young males to die at the frontline.

If he wants Ukraine to be “all-in”, what about the West joining the war with air power and bombing all Russian positions inside Ukraine and 500 km from the border? Not even this would be all in, at it won’t include ground troops, where you get most of the losses, but at least you could say the West is also taking some risks as well.

As things stand right now, Ukraine is doing huge sacrificies to sustain the war, but it is not yet all-in. At the same time, the hypocritical West is throwing scraps at the war in form of weapons and money while not risking any soldier’s life. If someone needs to raise the ante, it is the West, not Ukraine.

What a clown!
I understand your take and empathize deeply with the Ukrainians, but I also completely understand the American position... Let's look at the facts.

1. The West has been staunch from thr outset of the war that they would not contribute manpower to the Ukrainian war effort. They'd back Ukraine with money, equipment and weapons of war, but Ukraine had to supply the manpower to save their country. That includes everything from Infantry to pilots. That isn't the position of only far away countries such as USA, Canada, France and Britain however. Ukraine's direct neighbours don't want to send soldiers to the Ukrainian front either, even know Russia posses a threat to their own safety. Countries to such as Poland, Finland, Sweden, Latvia, Bulgaria, Romania, Estonia, etc could send much needed reinforcements, but they haven't because they don't deem it to be in their best interest.

2. Western aid has been at times frustrating, delayed, disjointed and underwhelming, but the fact is that it has arrived and it has been 50% of the reason (along with Ukrainian sacrifice and resolve) that the Ukrainians are still in the fight and have inflicted such an enormous toll on the Russian military.

3. Ukraine does legitimately have a manpower problem at the front right now. Artillery shell production, drone production, ammunition production both domestically (with enormous financial support from the West) and internationally (in the West itself) has ordered is on the verge of reaching levels that will require enormous manpower to use. Furthermore, many of Ukraine's best fighting brigades have faced serious attrition and required fresh soldiers to learn from veteran soldiers in order to continue to keep the Russians at bay and to stabilize the front lines.

4. Ukraine has what it needs in terms of tens of thousands of ATGMS, drones and hundreds of thousands of artillery shells and guided munitions to largely neutralize the Russian armored corps of MBTs, IFVS and APCs. Those attacking units are quickly neutralized and destroyed by the dozens. The problem Ukraine is facing is that Russia is willing to suffer horrendous losses of personnel to advance and take land and NO army can consistently waste millions of dollars worth of valuable munitions to counter endless small groups of advancing infantry. Those groups are best countered by prepared, layered defenses, manned by hundreds of thousands of soldiers on the defenses, reinforced with artillery and CAS. The West is helping Ukraine with the latter two elements, but the soldiers have to come from Ukraine.

5. The sad reality of this war has always been the same. If we're being realistic about what weapons of war the West is actually willing to provide (not nuclear weapons for example), the result was always going to be a signignificant amount of death on both sides. But we've reached a point where Ukraine is losing the manpower advantage even know it has equaled out (and in some areas surpassed) the technology advantage that Russia has. The American position, like it or not, is that when they've fought wars in their past, they've set the draft age at 18 years old. They disagree with the Ukrainian decision to set the draft age at 25 because they think that's indicative of a country stop short of doing everything in their own power to win the war. Although the 18-24 year old age group doesn't make up an enormous amount of the population of Ukraine, we're still talking about more than 1.5 million men that Ukraine could use to reinforce their military. Even if you drafted 1 in 5 from that age bracket 300,000 men, you could completely replace the attrition that Ukraine's exisiting fighting brigades have suffered along the front and you would force Russia into being willing to fight for another 3+ years, at a time when they've lost an enormous part of their army's inventory of offensive weapons. The Americans are betting that the Russians would rather negotiate than put their economy through 3 more years of this and Ukraine would be able to negotiate from a position of strength and they'd been forced to lose less land in the peace negotiations.

I see all sides on this one. I don't want to see young Ukrainian lose his life fighting a war anymore than you do. But I also people are delusional to think that this war can be won by the West's technology alone. It requires an enormous and constant manpower commitment from Ukraine, combined with both domestical and international production increases the size of which we've not seen since the Cold War.
 

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The American position, like it or not, is that when they've fought wars in their past, they've set the draft age at 18 years old. They disagree with the Ukrainian decision to set the draft age at 25 because they think that's indicative of a country stop short of doing everything in their own power to win the war.

This is because they fail to understand how much different the situation is now, than during the times they fougt their last war using drafted people.

The last time Americans used mobilized soldiers was in Vietnam, and guess how that war ended? They lost because the people were no longer willing to fight and demanded an end to the war. Americans lost their will to fight after fewer losses than Ukraine has already sustained, and we’re talking about a country 10 times bigger and a period 50 years ago, when life was “cheaper”.

So if the brave Americans were not able to sustain as many casualties as the Ukrainains are sustaining now, despite having 10 times higher the population, how can this scum accuse Ukrainians of not doing enough?

On top of that, we also have the demographic problems of Ukraine. In the past, when wars were fought with mobilized soldiers, the population age distribution was always a pyramid. You had a very large children base, and youth were “expendable”. You also had high mortality rates from disease and high poverty rates, so sending people to fight was not seen as something that bad.

But Ukraine lacks children and young people. Ukraininas in the 18-25 age group are few, are educated and they value their life. You can’t draft such people and expect positive results. Look what happened with the famous brigade trained in France, made up of mobilized soldiers. It was disolved because of mass desertions. If people don’t want to fight, they are useless in a war, or even a drag on those who actually want to fight.

If the West wants more soldiers for Ukraine, it should start paying them, instead of relying on slave labor (conscripts). It’s funny that the same hypocrites who don’t want to buy products from Xinjiang because they suspect slave labor is being used, are demanding Ukraine to utilize more slave soldiers.

In the end, what happened with those values like democracy, freedom and human rights? Do they not apply for Ukrainian men? Should they simply be used as slave soldiers, because it’s cheaper than to pay them? Is this how the morals of the West work? It seems that some people still believe slavery is good if it saves them some money.

What a disgusting scum this men is.
 

Soldier30

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Ukrainian servicemen showed homemade grenades created by one of the units. The design of the grenades is very simple, a stick, two 400 g TNT blocks and a fuse are used. How and where Ukrainian homemade grenades are used is not reported.

 

Relic

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This is because they fail to understand how much different the situation is now, than during the times they fougt their last war using drafted people.

The last time Americans used mobilized soldiers was in Vietnam, and guess how that war ended? They lost because the people were no longer willing to fight and demanded an end to the war. Americans lost their will to fight after fewer losses than Ukraine has already sustained, and we’re talking about a country 10 times bigger and a period 50 years ago, when life was “cheaper”.

So if the brave Americans were not able to sustain as many casualties as the Ukrainains are sustaining now, despite having 10 times higher the population, how can this scum accuse Ukrainians of not doing enough?

On top of that, we also have the demographic problems of Ukraine. In the past, when wars were fought with mobilized soldiers, the population age distribution was always a pyramid. You had a very large children base, and youth were “expendable”. You also had high mortality rates from disease and high poverty rates, so sending people to fight was not seen as something that bad.

But Ukraine lacks children and young people. Ukraininas in the 18-25 age group are few, are educated and they value their life. You can’t draft such people and expect positive results. Look what happened with the famous brigade trained in France, made up of mobilized soldiers. It was disolved because of mass desertions. If people don’t want to fight, they are useless in a war, or even a drag on those who actually want to fight.

If the West wants more soldiers for Ukraine, it should start paying them, instead of relying on slave labor (conscripts). It’s funny that the same hypocrites who don’t want to buy products from Xinjiang because they suspect slave labor is being used, are demanding Ukraine to utilize more slave soldiers.

In the end, what happened with those values like democracy, freedom and human rights? Do they not apply for Ukrainian men? Should they simply be used as slave soldiers, because it’s cheaper than to pay them? Is this how the morals of the West work? It seems that some people still believe slavery is good if it saves them some money.

What a disgusting scum this men is.
You're making some false equivalencies here.

1. The Russo-Ukrainian war has nothing in common with the war in Vietnam. The American homeland was not being threatened in the least, nor was American freedom. People got sick of that war because the Americans were sending thousands of young men to die in order to fight somebody else's war, half a world away.

Ukraine is fighting their own war, on their own territory, for their own reasons. Ukraine controls it's own destiny. If it would rather stop fighting and capitulate to Russia that is their choice and they have have every right to fight, surrender or negotiate. No external powers are forcing Ukraine to continue their fight for autonomy. It's a decision to do so and the West is supporting Ukraine in wanting to align with the West, rather than Russia. I support Ukraine's fight, but I fully acknowledge that it's their decision to keeping doing so and / or to stop when they're ready. In the same way, it's the decision of individual Western nations if they want to send personnel and resources to Ukraine. Each nation makes its own decisions, generally backed by the will of the people.

2. Nobody is suggesting that Ukraine shouldn't have democracy, or human rights, and that they they shouldn't apply to young Ukrainian men. That's a strawman that you have invented. But in the same way Ukraine is not entitled to Western resources. We have the freedom to say yes / no, as we choose. I fully recognize the dilemma that Zelensky has in choosing between mobilizing more young people in order to stabilize the front and holding steadfast while existing forces slowly retreat and Russia (who doesn't care about the lives of their people) continue to advance. I don't wish that choice on anyone.

3. I think there are some (forgive me if I'm misrepresenting you) that think that the West has some magic military equipment that they are withholding, that will simply force the Russians to retreat and surrender. That's patently false if we accept the idea that nobody is launching nuclear weapons due the global repercussions of doing so. There is no number of ATACMS and cruise missiles in the American inventory that could be transferred to Ukraine that would stop the Russians in their tracks. Even if every one of Germany's 600 TAURUS cruise missiles were transferred to Ukraine, Russia would not simply be defeated. 500 each of new western IFVs, MBTs and APCs would not be enough. The mass training of Ukrainian pilots to fly 4th generation Western airframes wouldn't win the war... I'm sure you get the point.

The reality is that the war can only we won with the combination of manpower, technology and weaponry. Ukraine is increasingly gaining robust access to technology and resources (via the West) , but that does nothing to solve the manpower issue. That's Ukraine's part of the deal because the West has been clear from the beginning of the war that they have no desire to send their people young people to die unless those people volunteer to go on their own.

As for your point about the West paying Ukrainians to fight... The West is already paying the bills of the Ukrainian military. They have been for 3 years. What do you think the new $50 Billion usd loan is going to be used for? The majority of it will be used to pay for the military. The West is also financing the majority of Ukraine's defense industry. Almost all of Ukraine's increase in production over the last 2 years has been funded through the "Danish model", which consists of Western nations that have limited military equipment to send to Ukraine, instead funding Ukraine's own military industrial base. There are roughly 10 countries funding Ukraine this way, to a combined total of billions of dollars each year.

I'm not sure exactly what it is that you want the West to do. Everyone that analyzes the war knows that Ukraine's predominent issue at the moment right now is manpower. The West has been clear that they won't provide that in this war. So in order for the West to be interested in continuing to send tens of billions of our taxpayers money for military equipment, Ukraine has to demonstrate the continued commitment to have enough personnel to use that equipment effectively. You don't see how that's a dilemma for the West as well?
 
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So in order for the West to be interested in continuing to send tens of billions of our taxpayers money for military equipment, Ukraine has to demonstrate the continued commitment to have enough personnel to use that equipment effectively. You don't see how that's a dilemma for the West as well?

I am not denying the fact that Ukraine has a manpower problem, and needs more personnel. What bothers me is the way this guy expressed himself, insinuating that the West is all-in but Ukraine is not, which cannot be further from the truth.

Ukraine’s effort is much bigger than the West’s effort, and even if Ukraine is not yet all-in, he is in no position to talk like this, as if the West was all-in and Ukraine wasn’t.

The other thing that bothers me is his suggestion that the manpower issue should be resolved through mobilization. That’s not how you fix manpower issues. If Ukraine needs more men at the frontline (which it does), it should start paying them high wages, to attract more volunteers, like Russia is doing. You can’t rely on slave soldiers to resolve your manpower issues.

The fact that he suggests using slaves to fight the war is what disgusts me. He is basically asking Ukrainian leaders to kidnap people and send them to death. He is an instigator to slavery of the worst kind. If he wants Ukraine to resolve the manpower issues, he should pressure Zelensky to start paying his soldiers big wages and attract more volunteers. But he doesn’t want that, because if Ukrainian soldiers would be well paid, the West would have to foot the bill. So he prefers using slave soldiers because they’re cheaper. That’s why I call him a disgusting individual.

And even from a practical perspective, mobilizing more people would not resolve the problem, becaue people who don’t want to foght are useless in war. They can be more of a drag than a benefit. The only way to fix Ukraine’s manpower issues is by paying high wages to volunteers. That would bring in determined people who could actually perform well on the frontlines.

To think that in a modern war like this one you can rely on conscripts is insanity.
 

Relic

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I am not denying the fact that Ukraine has a manpower problem, and needs more personnel. What bothers me is the way this guy expressed himself, insinuating that the West is all-in but Ukraine is not, which cannot be further from the truth.

Ukraine’s effort is much bigger than the West’s effort, and even if Ukraine is not yet all-in, he is in no position to talk like this, as if the West was all-in and Ukraine wasn’t.

The other thing that bothers me is his suggestion that the manpower issue should be resolved through mobilization. That’s not how you fix manpower issues. If Ukraine needs more men at the frontline (which it does), it should start paying them high wages, to attract more volunteers, like Russia is doing. You can’t rely on slave soldiers to resolve your manpower issues.

The fact that he suggests using slaves to fight the war is what disgusts me. He is basically asking Ukrainian leaders to kidnap people and send them to death. He is an instigator to slavery of the worst kind. If he wants Ukraine to resolve the manpower issues, he should pressure Zelensky to start paying his soldiers big wages and attract more volunteers. But he doesn’t want that, because if Ukrainian soldiers would be well paid, the West would have to foot the bill. So he prefers using slave soldiers because they’re cheaper. That’s why I call him a disgusting individual.

And even from a practical perspective, mobilizing more people would not resolve the problem, becaue people who don’t want to foght are useless in war. They can be more of a drag than a benefit. The only way to fix Ukraine’s manpower issues is by paying high wages to volunteers. That would bring in determined people who could actually perform well on the frontlines.

To think that in a modern war like this one you can rely on conscripts is insanity.
I'm all for Ukrainian soldiers being paid more in order to incentivize people from all age brackets to sign up. I think that's a great idea and I'm all for it... Here is the catch though. Someone has to pay for it and that can really only be solved by raising taxes in Ukraine to an alarmingly high rate. Maybe as high as 65%. Will the populous go for it? It's hard to say.

Fir the sake of a case study, let's say Ukraine decided to raise the average wage of their millitary members to $80,000 usd annually in order to attract a slew of new volunteers from all eligible age ranges. In order to expedite that process let's say they offered each new person who signed a contracts a $100,000 usd signing bonus to sign a 2 year contract with the armed forces.

Many in the West believe that Ukraine needs a fairly immediate influx of between 250,000 and 300,000 new soldiers in order to refill their brigades and even out the strength along the front lines of the war. Let's be charitable and use the low number of 250,000 NEW soldiers and let's say that brings the standing army up to 750,000 total personnel... Now let's do the math.

$100,000 usd × 250,000 new soldiers = $25 Billion usd in signing bonuses

750,000 personnel × 80,000 usd salaries = $60 Billion usd in salary expenses

Therefore, for Ukraine to add 250,000 new soldiers to it's military and pay each a lucrative signing bonus to attract them, and to simultaneously raise the wage of their exisiting soldiers to incentivize them to stay, it might cost some $85 billion usd... Annually. Even if I'm being hyper charitable and you think my numbers are too high in terms of both signing bonuses and salary, we're still looking at a figure north of $60 Billion usd annually to make it work... And that's without purchasing a single piece of kit or the adequate weaponry required for those soldiers to use. We also haven't discussed payments such as pensions, payouts to those critically injured, medical cuts and all of the associated administrative costs that go along with it.

Before the war, Ukraine was spending about $6 Billion usd annually on their entire military budget. They've raised that number to as high as a projected $53.7 Billion usd in 2025, which is roughly 27% of their GDP. Total implement a scheme the likes of that you're suggesting (which I'm morally in favour of for the record) you'd be asking them to spend in the neighborhood of 50% of their GDP on the military. The only way that seems even close to feasible would be a two part strategy.

1. Raise the federal income tax substantially (up into the 30% range).

2. Spend the overwhelming majority of the money that the West is sending Ukraine on payment for the military.

Sadly (and I mean that genuinely) Ukraine is not a wealthy country. To have a GDP of about $180 billion usd, with a population close to that of the size of Canada (who has a 2 Trillion usd GDP by comparison) makes it incredibly hard to simply buy soldiers. Especially in war with such high casualty rates. Guys aren't going to be signing up to head to the front lines unless the incentive is overwhelmingly high. At least not in the numbers Ukraine is estimated to need in order to put themselves in a signignificantly better manning situation.
 

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