US sanctions NATO ally Turkey over purchase of Russian missile defense system

[Cabatli_TR]

 

[Huelague]

We are all very angry for the way we have been treated. Also the double standard the two faced US has applied to Turkey.
But at the same time we have to accept the fact that if they wanted to, they could decimate Turkish economy. In this COVID stricken and very difficult world, our economy is so fragile that it does not need much to topple it over the precipice. To have a state bank with foreign reserves running in negative, domestic and foreign debt at record levels and being in a position to be paying more in interest payments than we actually make in a year is not conducive to a healthy economy.
They wanted to slap our wrists for being a bad boy. But whilst doing that they did not want to rock the boat.
The implications of these sanctions will be , hopefully positive on our defence industry. We may find it difficult to maneuver within the constraints of our own limited financial and technical means. But in the long run this will help us to be more independent.
But true independence will not be there until we break our financial and economic chains.

Right.
In this case, lets finalize the trade volume to $ 100 billion of both country, asap.

 

[Huelague]

Dude, come on... you know perfectly well know that even 10 Pakistans, Irans and Africas can’t be compared to the West in anything. The markets, the technologies, the investments and the finances are controlled by the West and no matter what you do you can’t find a more lucrative alternative to them...
To stop trading with the West while turning our economy towards Iran, Pakistan or Africa is like exchanging a horse for a chicken... and the chicken have been dead for a week or something.

A 'chicken' like China?

 

[the]

Is it realistic to think that Turkey has the ablility to reverse engineer ?

For example, the Soviets reverse engineered the B29 bomber to create the TU-4, and in the current era China is known to pretty much copy anything it can get its hands on ( explains why Russia is so hesitant to sell any advanced defence systems to it).

If Turkey can reverse engineer the S400 perhaps it can benefit the HISAR program and revive ties with the US. I'm sure the State department wouldn't mind having access to modern Russian equipment - especially as it comes with partial technology transfer.

 

[Jackdaws]

Is it realistic to think that Turkey has the ablility to reverse engineer ?

For example, the Soviets reverse engineered the B29 bomber to create the TU-4, and in the current era China is known to pretty much copy anything it can get its hands on ( explains why Russia is so hesitant to sell any advanced defence systems to it).

If Turkey can reverse engineer the S400 perhaps it can benefit the HISAR program and revive ties with the US. I'm sure the State department wouldn't mind having access to modern Russian equipment - especially as it comes with partial technology transfer.

Or they can just negotiate a slightly higher fee and demand Transfer of Technology.

 

[Oublious]

Is it realistic to think that Turkey has the ablility to reverse engineer ?

For example, the Soviets reverse engineered the B29 bomber to create the TU-4, and in the current era China is known to pretty much copy anything it can get its hands on ( explains why Russia is so hesitant to sell any advanced defence systems to it).

If Turkey can reverse engineer the S400 perhaps it can benefit the HISAR program and revive ties with the US. I'm sure the State department wouldn't mind having access to modern Russian equipment - especially as it comes with partial technology transfer.

thats the dumbest thing you ever do, i would lose all my money then face in the international community. You will lose your credit for a country like America?

 

[what]

I think the markets reaction says it all, hardly any. Lira even gained 1% vs. Dollar yesterday. This will not be a big pain in the ass, its a political statement and a way to force the government to engage or engage more with the US. If you look at all the fancy wording you can see many loopholes, like SSB cant get shit but a subsidiary of it can.

As Cabatli said its not like a lot of export licenses were approved to begin with.

 

[Huelague]

thats the dumbest thing you ever do, i would lose all my money then face in the international community. You will lose your credit for a country like America?

Uuughh...we want not lose our face on our allies and friends like US, like China do for decades.

 

[Oublious]

Uuughh...we want not lose our face on our allies and friends like US, like China do for decades.

Us can do what he want, he is the powerhouse and we are not. When you are the strongest you are the one who is the judge.


Adalet dagitmak gibi birsey.

 

[Test7]

Turkey hasn't actually been an ally in years, on the contrary, so this was bound to happen.

Turkey renounced to serve US interests..If the US punishes you, it's because you are not serving its interests.

 

[Indos]

What is the effect on TFX project ? SSB official has said Hurjet program will be effected.

I am waiting Biden administration to come, I hope he is different with Trump although @Nilgiri has said he may even get more hawkish toward Turkish.

What I would say it is not necessarily due to CATSAA (and its relation to Russia) since India doesnt get the sanction, but it is more due to Tea party movement and its aligned with Jewish political power in USA who see Turkey as a possible future threat to Israel.

So I suggest Liberal lead administration under Biden might has different policy over this sanction. Regardless of that, I think it is better for TFX to get European engine than USA since 4 or 8 years from now another Hawkish Republican candidate can show up again.

 

[Nilgiri]

I am waiting Biden administration to come, I hope he is different with Trump although @Nilgiri has said he may even get more hawkish toward Turkish.

I am just looking at the people he's picking for his administration too (since Biden is really not all there already).

None of them really have said much in opposition to Trump w.r.t CAATSA...and they definitely want it applied full 100% on NATO allies (they were clapping wildly behind scenes when Trump started bludgeoning germany a bit too on nord stream 2).

Generally you can't rely on words and DC blab above surface, you have to look at votes (in the legislature) and policy discussions/debates that the main power factions in US hold with each other (more quietly).

Its a deep state bipartisan goal now to make a certain example out of Turkey...Erdogan is another issue on top regarding it that US wants change on (i.e he change his approach on certain things, or Turks change leadership by the pressure/sanctions exerted in these coming years).

It is a pretty dumb move by US deep state I feel (there is 100 different ways to do these things better), but they have committed to it with Turkey now.

What I would say it is not necessarily due to CATSAA (and its relation to Russia) since India doesnt get the sanction, but it is more due to Tea party movement and its aligned with Jewish political power in USA who see Turkey as a possible future threat to Israel.

The basic gist of it is US wants Turkey to be a foil to Russia (as none of EU has that location that Turkey has)...and do as its told on that.

India's role is the south western axis/obstacle to China.

You will note the differences in populations too here in these scenarios and raw dimensions and potentials.

US deep state is not good at nuance (and thus this weight over-application on Turkey), but they have basic resolution at this difference in scale.

Tea Party movement is long dead my friend. Other movements have taken its place...and others down road. That stuff is messy long topic to get into.

There is a thing with jewish lobby doing its thing inside US power corridors, thats an established feature for sure. But they have their own hot/cold relationship with Turkey.....as you can see with Israeli supply of weapons to Azerbaijan for example (and the earlier relationship Israel had with Turkey, that Israel + jewish lobby would like to re-establish). In a way this power axis here probably crystalises and surmises the main issue lies with Erdogan and AKP...and they probably figure a better scenario for them comes their way if Turkey has different leader/govt.

So I feel economic issues and military sanctions etc are only going to rise here on out till they get what they want on political disposition inside Turkey.

As Turkish members have said here and other areas, its prudent for Turkey to develop its own technologies regardless...and bunker long term whats needed, what needs to be there long term past politics. But Turks need to figure out best way for that, thats a complicated long debate, its not easy.

So I suggest Liberal lead administration under Biden might has different policy over this sanction. Regardless of that, I think it is better for TFX to get European engine than USA since 4 or 8 years from now another Hawkish Republican candidate can show up again.

They aren't really "liberal"...that is just word they like to use. They are neo-liberal and like neo-cons these are two sides of the same coin....and very different and muddied (due to DC swamp) from original liberal and conservative guise.

I agree Europe probably looks like an option for Turkey (regarding engines). But they don't share good relationship with France. What is left? Something with UK or Germany maybe....Italy does not have the core technology for it.

Ukraine is another promising option that Turkey should explore more if you ask me. Rest of RnD around world for such things are politically too far or have their own set of issues making it too difficult.

 

[Saithan]

Ukraine is another promising option that Turkey should explore more if you ask me. Rest of RnD around world for such things are politically too far or have their own set of issues making it too difficult.

I think the cooperation with Ukraine is going to be towards helping Turkey realize their goal of indigenous engine. Ukraine has experience and can help Turkey setup the necessary processes and procedures.

The core engine that we're talking about has already been made in Turkey and will/is tested thoroughly.

I'm very excited to see what kind of engines that'll come out of it. Apart from UK, I don't see any partners in EU in this field.

However It could be interesting to see if Indonesia or Pakistan has engineering capabilities that could support us.

 

[Indos]

However It could be interesting to see if Indonesia or Pakistan has engineering capabilities that could support us.

Well, based on the statement from PT LEN official, they plan to test cruise missile in 2023 in collaboration with other company like Dirgantara Indonesia and others, the turbo jet seems to be indigenously made as we have tried to develop it at least since 2013 but I believe Kale turbo jet is still much advance.

This is in Dirgantara Indonesia (Indonesia Aerospace)

Edited. Top secret.

 

[Indos]

I suggest get the material for turbo jet from China for fighter, Iran did the same. You just need to focus on the thrust, while for endurance, just get the material from China.

 

[Anmdt]

but it is more due to Tea party movement and its aligned with Jewish political power in USA who see Turkey as a possible future threat to Israel.

In fact, Israel is not pro-sanction, since they know as long as Turkish Army is equipped with American products (the more is the merrier), it will be easier for them to eliminate the threat,if it emerges.
Otherwise the threat will remain there if ever emerges, and they may not have influence on European providers as much as they do on US.

 

[Indos]

In fact, Israel is not pro-sanction, since they know as long as Turkish Army is equipped with American products (the more is the merrier), it will be easier for them to eliminate the threat,if it emerges.
Otherwise the threat will remain there if ever emerges, and they may not have influence on European providers as much as they do on US.

They target SSB, Turkish defense industry. Turkey has already made a goal to be self sufficient in defense equipment. It is clear some body try to stop Turkey defense industry development.

 

[Anmdt]

They target SSB, Turkish defense industry. Turkey has already made a goal to be self sufficient in defense equipment. It is clear some body try to stop Turkey defense industry development.

They know it better than us, not just to be independent but Turkey can supply needs from elsewhere when needed (done it earlier in 80s, 90s, 2000s). (still many officials are pro-american when it comes to equipment but anyway) , that is why they are keeping it a little as much, to keep Army dependent on US products by providing something (spare parts) and blocking advancement by targeting SSB.

 

[Defence Turkey]

President ERDOĞAN Condemns US Sanctions Over S-400 System​

President ERDOĞAN Condemns US Sanctions Over S-400 System

www.defenceturkey.com

 

[Kartal1]

What is the effect on TFX project ? SSB official has said Hurjet program will be effected.

I am waiting Biden administration to come, I hope he is different with Trump although @Nilgiri has said he may even get more hawkish toward Turkish.

What I would say it is not necessarily due to CATSAA (and its relation to Russia) since India doesnt get the sanction, but it is more due to Tea party movement and its aligned with Jewish political power in USA who see Turkey as a possible future threat to Israel.

So I suggest Liberal lead administration under Biden might has different policy over this sanction. Regardless of that, I think it is better for TFX to get European engine than USA since 4 or 8 years from now another Hawkish Republican candidate can show up again.

I have always defended cooperation with UK on that matter. They are more reliable than all our alternatives when it comes to the development of TFX including the propulsion system. I hope new deal is renegotiated with acceptable compromises from our side. We can gain much from cooperating with companies like BAE Systems and Rolls Royce. It would be valuable for both countries. Who knows maybe in the future Turkey may show interest also in TEMPEST procurement.