Latest Thread
One thing never forget. Afghans and Pakistani's are brothers and often the children of the same parents. Our geography and history is intertwined. Just like sibling rivalry can be harsh and so has our relationship but these facts won't change. I like to think of Af-Paks as Irish and English. Bitter hostories but for all that they are one. I hope one day we will have a open border with Pakistan with our people able to go to and from like the Irish and English do today despite a bloody history.I agree it will degrade @Kaptaan ....remains to be seen how much since there is lot of things in play as to how other neighbours see Taliban.
We will simply catch up early summer 2022 on this and see how many of your predictions came true.
From the first day of Turkey's ISAF involvement Turkey haves different approach at Afghanistan. Turkey trough its involvement took critical command tasks as command of ISAF, Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT) Wardak, Kabul Airport Command, Regional Command Capital (Turkey is still running the Train Advice Assist Command- Capital after the RCC was reconstructed) and is actively participating with its personnel in the HQs of other command structures.
Turkey declined participation in combat operations in Afghanistan. The main objectives in Turkey in Afghanistan is provide security to the capital Kabul and involve in humanitarian aid. Turkey is leading its own training center providing training to the security forces in the capital. Turkey is also a major contributor with aid program of 1.1 billion dollars. Between 2018-2020 Turkey provided 60 million dollars of aid. Turkish business is developing relations and providing Afghanistan with hygiene and cleaning products. TIKA with its efforts opened a 168 water wells and supplied clean drinking water to more than 500.000 Afghani citizens (2013). In 2005 a healthcare agreement was signed providing the possibility of healthcare education to Afghanis and possibility for Turkish and Afghanistan healthcare personnel to serve in the other country's healthcare system. Turkey established multiple hospitals where Afghani health personnel are receiving training. Turkey also is training Afghani police officers in Turkish academies. Tens of schools are also built by TIKA where millions of Afghani youth received education.
Turkey followed a route of a soft power rather than violence and is acting differently to its Western partners. The results are there and there are many Afghanis that respect the Turkish initiative. Organizations like TIKA, Turkish Red Crescent play a critical role in the whole process. It is a known fact that there were cases where NATO troops were putting Turkish flags in order not to get attacked. Turkey also supported Dostum and tried to keep the same distance to all the tribes and their leaders. Turkey vocally expressed its concerns over the drug traffic in Afghanistan and even provided other ways for income and also aids to the tribes in order to try and cut that malign practice. Turkish intelligence played important role in the relationship with Dostum and also managed to win positions for Turkey in the hearths and minds of tribal leaders. Turkey also managed to maintain neutral position towards the Afghani internal affairs and also managed to keep ties with the Taliban on a good level. There were many Turks that were kidnapped during their humanitarian work by Taliban but they were all rescued with the good will of Taliban and the initiatives of the Afghani and Turkish intelligence. Afghanistan authorities are also cooperating with Turkey on security matters including FETO terrorist organization and there are no problems with them.
When we take all these things into consideration, the Turkish soft power and the achievement that Turkey made with its neutrality I think the prospects of the Afghanistan-Turkey relationship is very good. Even if Taliban grab the power in Afghanistan I don't think it will surely negatively impact the relationship. For me the unknown part in all this is what position Dostum will have in possible Taliban ruled Afghanistan. Will Dostum allow a Taliban rule? Will Turkey ditch Dostum and keep ties with Taliban or take a stance against the Taliban in favor of Dostum? We know Dostum have a mercantile side in his character and we know that he also is a fighter. We know that in his controlled areas there is another much more secular law and Dostum is known for his secular point of view. Will people living under Dostum allow Taliban rule? What is the possibility of Afghanistan disintegrating and Uzbek territories to declare independence (we know that there were people in Uzbekistan considering that in the past acting as a buffer State). With this uncertainty its hard to make a conclusion. Afghanistan is a tough topic with all its ethnical diversity, tribal wars, government structure etc. It is really hard to predict what will happen in such environment.
Hmm... Very interesting. So indeed he is pushing towards the direction I thought (independent Uzbek State). If that is the case I am wondering if the US and Turkey support such a scenario. This can easily turn into another bloodbath and the only option for Dostum would be a ethnic cleansing of Tajiks so he can get enough and important territory.Thanks for the generous reply.
During the last peace conference Dostum was drawing cartoons b/z peace talks were boring for him. He approached the head of Taliban's negotiation team (Abdul Ghani Baradar) and told him how is his health while placing his hand on Baradar shoulder, he told Dostum "remove your hand traitor, killer of Afghans". Abdul Ghani Baradar was send to Guantanamo with many more by the Dostum, SO for Taliban's there is no Dostum.
Dostum doesn't care about Islamic law as demanded by Taliban's but US agreed to it with the Taliban's among other things. The dude and his goons banged about a separate state a week ago due to some guy appointed by Kabul government he wasn't fond of or some thing. He (Dostum) escaped to Uzbekistan when the Taliban's came to power before the US invasion & Taliban's have unsettled score with him.
As US is leaving and trying to find a way to drag the Afghan men they trained out of Afghanistan to Guam or US and grant them citizenship. Dostum will either escape or be killed by Taliban's in post US Afghanistan.
So betting on Dostum is a lost cause.
Your entire premise overlooks some facts even if Turkey were to go down this very bold but risky move. Central Asia is way too tilted toward Russia. Moscow remains the dominant influence on Central Asia countries.We know that both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan hosted bases of NATO countries.
That is why I pointed out that it is still to early for Central Asian countries for such a cooperation with the US and on such strategic matter but looking at the developments regarding the development of the Turkic Council mission connected initiatives in the Turkic countries I think there is a process going on aimed at gaining more independency from Russia. A sign of that is an ongoing trend of changing a country's Cyrillic alphabet to a Latin one after decades of use. Another trend among the young population is to talk much more their native language rather than Russian. Of course all that transition will happen in a slow and controlled manners but we know for sure that Russian political circles are concerned over these trends.Your entire premise overlooks some facts even if Turkey were to go down this very bold but risky move. Central Asia is way too tilted toward Russia. Moscow remains the dominant influence on Central Asia countries.
Thanks for the generous reply.
During the last peace conference Dostum was drawing cartoons b/z peace talks were boring for him. He approached the head of Taliban's negotiation team (Abdul Ghani Baradar) and told him how is his health while placing his hand on Baradar shoulder, he told Dostum "remove your hand traitor, killer of Afghans". Abdul Ghani Baradar was send to Guantanamo with many more by the Dostum, SO for Taliban's there is no Dostum.
Dostum doesn't care about Islamic law as demanded by Taliban's but US agreed to it with the Taliban's among other things. The dude and his goons banged about a separate state a week ago due to some guy appointed by Kabul government he wasn't fond of or some thing. He (Dostum) escaped to Uzbekistan when the Taliban's came to power before the US invasion & Taliban's have unsettled score with him.
As US is leaving and trying to find a way to drag the Afghan men they trained out of Afghanistan to Guam or US and grant them citizenship. Dostum will either escape or be killed by Taliban's in post US Afghanistan.
So betting on Dostum is a lost cause.
The United States had 20 years to implement this scenario. But now they are busy withdrawing from the country they occupy. I think it would be a healthier approach to think about why the invasion of Afghanistan failed.Hmm... Very interesting. So indeed he is pushing towards the direction I thought (independent Uzbek State). If that is the case I am wondering if the US and Turkey support such a scenario. This can easily turn into another bloodbath and the only option for Dostum would be a ethnic cleansing of Tajiks so he can get enough and important territory.
Interestingly there are 1.8 billion barrels oil reserve in the north. There are also 1.75 cubic feet natural gas reserve. If we take the possibility of such a State this will be enough to make the State the UAE of Central Asia. With such a large oil and natural gas reserve this is a very interesting area and according an article the US should import 80% of its petroleum from that area.
If we think of possible US-Turkish intervention on the side of Dostum we must think about the political situation in the region and if such a move can take place. We know that both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan hosted bases of NATO countries. Uzbekistan hosted a US base. After the new government formed in Uzbekistan their whole game changed. They opened to the world and started exploring for new opportunities and allies. Some of the most notable countries that responded to this call were the US and Turkey. A theme of talks for a long time is if the US could establish a new military base in Central Asia and if such thing happens my bet would be Uzbekistan. It could possibly be used for many scenarios including supporting operations in Afghanistan, backing Dostum push into the oil and natural gas reach areas, pressuring Russia and exerting influence over Central Asia.
We should not underestimate the fact that Uzbekistan is also a part of the Turkic Council and is one of the most active members of the organization. The Turkic Council aims at coordination in international and regional issues including economic and security cooperation between the Turkic countries. In order to understand how important the Turkic Council for Uzbekistan is we must see at the Uzbek President Mirzyoyev speech at one of the recent conferences saying:
"In the epoch of development we should be ready for all challenges and use our potential jointly. Strengthening of our economic relations has always been one of the key goals [for the Turkic Council]"
"It is high time for the Turkic Council to establish its own Investment Fund and the Development Bank. We are ready to start working in this direction" (Source: https://www.inform.kz/en/uzbek-pres...lish-turkic-council-development-bank_a3770654)
I think it's worth that we think of possible Turkey/Uzbekistan/Turkic Council intervention in such scenario. Of course it is still to early for the Central Asian States for a such an open pro-US alignment and maybe it could never happen but such a thing would mean that the cooperation level between the Turkic Council and the US would be on strategic level and also it would mean a Turkish-US reconciliation in Central Asia.
Of course that is only my brain working around some of the issues and the possible development of the situation but there are many uncertain things as I said both on regional level and also what path will Turkey choose in its strategic and geopolitical stance because as we know Turkey's relationship with its strategic allies is very turbulent on many regional issues including issues regarding Turkey's national interests and national security ranging from Northern Iraq, Northern Syria, Northern Africa and also elections are coming in 2023 that can change many things in the way Turkey operates but it is interesting to think about all these scenarios.