M
A very interesting thread with a very different perspective. Use the translator, but it sort of answers all the questions.
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A very interesting thread with a very different perspective. Use the translator, but it sort of answers all the questions.
Blood raven
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Could you make a tl.dr of it?
M
Essentially, he claims that this was something agreed by every power in the region including Russia, Pak, China, US, India and all the neighboring countries to ensure Afghanistan gains stability, Taliban ensures security of TAPI pipelines and also ensures that all its mineral wealth like copper, cobalt, lithium and uranium, all of which are found in Afghanistan can be used in Climate change policies.
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Very interesting article from which highlights Pakistan's role in moderating the Taliban.
*
The next 72 hours are crucial for Afghanistan.
In Pakistan, anxious people in high offices are twitching nervously while glancing at their watches and calendars. They know they will breathe easy when Kabul has a formal government.
As the shockwaves of the Taliban takeover rippling across the region and the world gradually settle down into a resigned acceptance of the new reality, fears in Islamabad have begun to germinate that the surprising calm of the last few days could give way to an orchestrated campaign of scapegoating Pakistan. It is not inevitable, say officials, but neither is it improbable.
To understand the undercurrents behind these genuine fears, one has to scan the political and diplomatic matrix that stands ruptured by the lightening Taliban re-conquest of their homeland. The doorway into this changed matrix is the issue of the Taliban’s international legitimacy, which in turn needs to be authenticated through formal recognition by the world community – or at least by the most important states. According to Red Zone insiders, it was this topic of recognition that dominated the conversations between Prime Minister Imran Khan and various leaders who telephoned him in the last 24 hours.
In these conversations, almost all the western officials asked the PM not to accord recognition to the Taliban regime at this stage. Pakistani officials say they are in agreement with this request because they will only recognise the regime along with the international community. What the official Pakistani position does not explain – deliberately so – is that synchronising policy on the recognition issue does not mean the ingredients constituting this policy are also in sync.
The core ingredient of Pakistan’s policy, as of today, is to see a broad-based and inclusive government in Kabul. This is key to everything else that follows, and this is why the next 72 hours are so crucial. “We hope such a set-up will be in place within this time,” says an official who has been monitoring the situation very closely. He says there is a palpable sense of relief in Islamabad that the Taliban have kept the optics of their takeover positive so far. “This is what we had been persuading them to do as much as we could for months,” he says, explaining that Pakistani interlocutors emphasised repeatedly to the Taliban leadership that they could not afford to behave the way they did in the nineties. These officials also explained to the Taliban in as clear terms as possible that if they regressed into their nineties’ mode in terms of human rights violations and curtailment of women’s rights, it would be very difficult for Pakistan to support them. So far the Taliban — as evidenced by the press conference of their chief spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid — appear to have taken Pakistan’s advice seriously.
And yet these are early days, and much can go wrong. According to officials in Islamabad, the Taliban leadership understands that if it wants international legitimacy, it has to put in place an inclusive and broad-based government. However, the Taliban are not following any country’s advice – including that of Pakistan – on whom to include in the government. The assessment in Islamabad is that if the Taliban can offer some key positions in the government to a few important and high profile leaders from among their rivals, this would allay the fears of many among the international players. “Let us assume for the sake of argument that the Taliban offer important offices to people like Dr Abdullah, or Hamid Karzai,” says an insider. “This would have a big impact on how the government would be perceived.”
Perceptions though go only so far in influencing and affecting hardcore political interests. Sources inside the Red Zone say that Britain is now planning to call upon the UN Security Council to address the question of the Taliban government’s recognition through this platform. China and Russia, two of the five permanent members of the UNSC, have a favourable view on the recognition issue, but the decision could, if so intended, take a while.
Which is understandable, for today there is no government in Kabul to recognise, even though the embassies still operating in Kabul are indirectly engaging with the Taliban since they now control the levers of power. Therefore Red Zone insiders believe that the order of preference for phase-wise progress in Afghanistan would have to be like this:
a. Pakistan must ensure it does not find itself isolated and scapegoated on the Afghanistan issue
b. Pakistan must ensure the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) does not gain strength from a Taliban control of the country and is not able to launch terror attacks on Pakistani soil
The scapegoating has not started yet, perhaps because the shockwaves of the Taliban takeover are still rippling across the world while the US and Nato countries grapple with internal criticism. Officials here fear that once the shock wears off, these countries will look for others to blame. The coverage of western media organisations is already skewing in that direction. Newspaper editorials and news channels’ visuals are all amplifying tired stereotypes about Taliban and Pakistan. This could get worse.
Ill-timed and ill-considered statements from Pakistani leaders are not helping either. Pakistan’s failure to communicate at every level — tactical and strategic — is biting us where it hurts most — and when it hurts most. Those mandated to communicate our narrative are either struggling with the message, or with the framing, or with the language — and often with all three. It is a shocking indictment of the Pakistani state: it can weaponise its uranium but it cannot weaponise its communication.
What adds insult to injury is that poor communication may nullify the benefits of good diplomacy. On the Afghanistan issue, Pakistan’s diplomacy has been quite effective and played a critical role in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table in Doha (although once the US and Taliban started talking directly, Pakistan was out of the loop). On the regional front, Pakistani diplomacy has cemented efforts on Afghanistan between China, Russia, Iran and to some extent Turkey, with diplomats in Islamabad and these regional capitals performing admirably. Poor communication and poorer appreciation of its importance may end up diluting the impact of potent diplomacy if Pakistan finds itself in the crosshairs of an orchestrated campaign.
The likes of former Afghan president Ashraf Ghani and his key people like Amrullah Saleh and Hamdullah Mohib would be more than happy to contribute to such a campaign. “Ashraf Ghani is the sole reason why a negotiated settlement could not happen between his regime and the Taliban,” says a Red Zone insider. A temperamental person who became increasingly isolated in his presidential palace, Ghani badly misread the evolving situation. In mid-July at a conference in Tashkent, he had an unpleasant interaction with the Pakistani delegation led by Prime Minister Imran Khan. According to eyewitnesses, Ghani in his imperious fashion told the Pakistani officials he would fight the Taliban till the end. When some Pakistani officials informed him that Pakistan was planning to host Afghan leaders in Islamabad to facilitate the process of negotiations, Ghani got flustered and retorted rudely: “Who do you think you people are to call my people to Islamabad.”
His delusions cost Ghani his presidency, and probably his legacy too. In the fog of peace that engulfs Kabul today, Pakistan may want to ensure it retains a clear vision.
Published in Dawn, August 19th, 2021
*
The next 72 hours are crucial for Afghanistan.
In Pakistan, anxious people in high offices are twitching nervously while glancing at their watches and calendars. They know they will breathe easy when Kabul has a formal government.
As the shockwaves of the Taliban takeover rippling across the region and the world gradually settle down into a resigned acceptance of the new reality, fears in Islamabad have begun to germinate that the surprising calm of the last few days could give way to an orchestrated campaign of scapegoating Pakistan. It is not inevitable, say officials, but neither is it improbable.
To understand the undercurrents behind these genuine fears, one has to scan the political and diplomatic matrix that stands ruptured by the lightening Taliban re-conquest of their homeland. The doorway into this changed matrix is the issue of the Taliban’s international legitimacy, which in turn needs to be authenticated through formal recognition by the world community – or at least by the most important states. According to Red Zone insiders, it was this topic of recognition that dominated the conversations between Prime Minister Imran Khan and various leaders who telephoned him in the last 24 hours.
In these conversations, almost all the western officials asked the PM not to accord recognition to the Taliban regime at this stage. Pakistani officials say they are in agreement with this request because they will only recognise the regime along with the international community. What the official Pakistani position does not explain – deliberately so – is that synchronising policy on the recognition issue does not mean the ingredients constituting this policy are also in sync.
The core ingredient of Pakistan’s policy, as of today, is to see a broad-based and inclusive government in Kabul. This is key to everything else that follows, and this is why the next 72 hours are so crucial. “We hope such a set-up will be in place within this time,” says an official who has been monitoring the situation very closely. He says there is a palpable sense of relief in Islamabad that the Taliban have kept the optics of their takeover positive so far. “This is what we had been persuading them to do as much as we could for months,” he says, explaining that Pakistani interlocutors emphasised repeatedly to the Taliban leadership that they could not afford to behave the way they did in the nineties. These officials also explained to the Taliban in as clear terms as possible that if they regressed into their nineties’ mode in terms of human rights violations and curtailment of women’s rights, it would be very difficult for Pakistan to support them. So far the Taliban — as evidenced by the press conference of their chief spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid — appear to have taken Pakistan’s advice seriously.
And yet these are early days, and much can go wrong. According to officials in Islamabad, the Taliban leadership understands that if it wants international legitimacy, it has to put in place an inclusive and broad-based government. However, the Taliban are not following any country’s advice – including that of Pakistan – on whom to include in the government. The assessment in Islamabad is that if the Taliban can offer some key positions in the government to a few important and high profile leaders from among their rivals, this would allay the fears of many among the international players. “Let us assume for the sake of argument that the Taliban offer important offices to people like Dr Abdullah, or Hamid Karzai,” says an insider. “This would have a big impact on how the government would be perceived.”
Perceptions though go only so far in influencing and affecting hardcore political interests. Sources inside the Red Zone say that Britain is now planning to call upon the UN Security Council to address the question of the Taliban government’s recognition through this platform. China and Russia, two of the five permanent members of the UNSC, have a favourable view on the recognition issue, but the decision could, if so intended, take a while.
Which is understandable, for today there is no government in Kabul to recognise, even though the embassies still operating in Kabul are indirectly engaging with the Taliban since they now control the levers of power. Therefore Red Zone insiders believe that the order of preference for phase-wise progress in Afghanistan would have to be like this:
- Setting up a formal inclusive government
- Formal engagement and outreach of this government with other countries
- International recognition of the government
- Decent governance by the government
a. Pakistan must ensure it does not find itself isolated and scapegoated on the Afghanistan issue
b. Pakistan must ensure the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) does not gain strength from a Taliban control of the country and is not able to launch terror attacks on Pakistani soil
The scapegoating has not started yet, perhaps because the shockwaves of the Taliban takeover are still rippling across the world while the US and Nato countries grapple with internal criticism. Officials here fear that once the shock wears off, these countries will look for others to blame. The coverage of western media organisations is already skewing in that direction. Newspaper editorials and news channels’ visuals are all amplifying tired stereotypes about Taliban and Pakistan. This could get worse.
Ill-timed and ill-considered statements from Pakistani leaders are not helping either. Pakistan’s failure to communicate at every level — tactical and strategic — is biting us where it hurts most — and when it hurts most. Those mandated to communicate our narrative are either struggling with the message, or with the framing, or with the language — and often with all three. It is a shocking indictment of the Pakistani state: it can weaponise its uranium but it cannot weaponise its communication.
What adds insult to injury is that poor communication may nullify the benefits of good diplomacy. On the Afghanistan issue, Pakistan’s diplomacy has been quite effective and played a critical role in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table in Doha (although once the US and Taliban started talking directly, Pakistan was out of the loop). On the regional front, Pakistani diplomacy has cemented efforts on Afghanistan between China, Russia, Iran and to some extent Turkey, with diplomats in Islamabad and these regional capitals performing admirably. Poor communication and poorer appreciation of its importance may end up diluting the impact of potent diplomacy if Pakistan finds itself in the crosshairs of an orchestrated campaign.
The likes of former Afghan president Ashraf Ghani and his key people like Amrullah Saleh and Hamdullah Mohib would be more than happy to contribute to such a campaign. “Ashraf Ghani is the sole reason why a negotiated settlement could not happen between his regime and the Taliban,” says a Red Zone insider. A temperamental person who became increasingly isolated in his presidential palace, Ghani badly misread the evolving situation. In mid-July at a conference in Tashkent, he had an unpleasant interaction with the Pakistani delegation led by Prime Minister Imran Khan. According to eyewitnesses, Ghani in his imperious fashion told the Pakistani officials he would fight the Taliban till the end. When some Pakistani officials informed him that Pakistan was planning to host Afghan leaders in Islamabad to facilitate the process of negotiations, Ghani got flustered and retorted rudely: “Who do you think you people are to call my people to Islamabad.”
His delusions cost Ghani his presidency, and probably his legacy too. In the fog of peace that engulfs Kabul today, Pakistan may want to ensure it retains a clear vision.
Published in Dawn, August 19th, 2021
Brace Yourself
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Blood raven
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Thank you
'I don't want to be killed by the Taliban': Afghan interpreter leaves tearful voicemail
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'I don't want to be killed by the Taliban': Afghan interpreter leaves tearful voicemail | CNN
In an interview with CNN's Kate Bolduan, human rights attorney Kimberley Motley talks about the voicemail she received from an Afghan interpreter pleading for help from the US and the desperation she's hearing from people in the country as the Taliban takes over.
Brace Yourself
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GoatsMilk
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Isnt the english speaking part of al jaz owned by the british?
Brace Yourself
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Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban and the United States of America
February 29, 2020
which corresponds to Rajab 5, 1441 on the Hijri Lunar calendar and Hoot 10, 1398 on the Hijri Solar calendar
February 29, 2020
which corresponds to Rajab 5, 1441 on the Hijri Lunar calendar and Hoot 10, 1398 on the Hijri Solar calendar
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It was obvious that the power transition wont happen without guarantees, US didnt spend billions for nothing.
Mujahedeen won yippiee, now lets get back to business...
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Brace Yourself
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Even Armenian PM Nicol Pasinyan later did a Good job by ending the war with Azerbijan (though he has been froced by russia) and saved his troops lives but Armenian didn't like that.
Afghan President really don't know his place, his arrogant behaviour kicked him out of Afghanistan.
I hope someday he will be called by a neighbouring country for Acting real president of Afghanistan in a Movie. We will all pretty much enjoy it!
May be with enough luck he can get Oscar too!
Barry
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mate this is the same dude that went as far as to tell me the UK, my country of birth and residence, wasn't for me, because i had a negative opinion of tory c*nt Sajid Javid.
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Yup. About sums it. Uncle Sam adopted that very thinking when sands of Arabia erupted with black gold. Never did they ask Al Saud about his thoughts on the fairer sex or trans-genders or rights of LGBT's.
And that is exactly same today in the great US-Saudia alliance. Just to be clear most of the sheikhdoms in the gulf that actually US bases are not exactly known for their Swiss like liberalism.
Ryder
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Fun Fact: Turkmenistan was one of the few countries in the world to recognise the Taliban run Emirate of Afghanistan before it collapsed in 2001.
I never knew this but I guess it works for Turkmenistan as they have a neutrality policy when it comes to their foreign policy.
I never knew this but I guess it works for Turkmenistan as they have a neutrality policy when it comes to their foreign policy.
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What many miss here is all these foreign powers who invade Afghanistan did it ony for ressouces, Russia failed with the approach of a puppet goverment.
The US had the better appraoch by taking away the power that they gave to Taliban in the fist place and forcing them to make concessions about the raw materials.
We will see international companies looting these ressources in the coming years with the blessing of Taliban who exchanged it against power.
Now some people cheer the whole situation as if Afghans got their sovereingty back or something while the opposite is the case, Afhanistan just lost its sovereignty.
Its remarkable how the religiously conservative folks get fooled time and again since Lawrance of Arabia but dont even notice it.
But congrats on the victory i guess...
Ryder
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When has Afghanistan ever been independant?
It usually got blitzkreig by a lot of empires. Because it was all in the middle.
Still a tough place to rule as tribes and clans dont care about centralised rulers or absolute rulers.
Babur usually committed a lot of atrocities in Afghanistan just to keep the region under his control and to send a message to any of his enemies in the region.
N
For all the "crocodile tears" about women's rights or rights of Minorities in Afghanistan here is a interesting screenshot,The Taliban are savages no doubt but they truly represent what Afghans want if the Soviets could not push "Marxist Leninist" thought on a tribal society like that what makes you think American "liberal democracy" would work anyways it does Seem the Talibs have come a far way maybe being holed up in Qatar these last two decades with modern amenities may have changed some of their thinking interesting enough on Afghanistan "independence day" on the 19th Taliban officials visited the grave of King Ammanullah Khan who tried to bring Ataturk style reforms to Afghanistan in the 1920s and 30s and visited various Ashura programs with the local Shia population never thought it would occur hope it stays so cautiously optimistic
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Essentially this what I think Pakistan is hoping. A poorer, colder, mountain version of Saudia Arabia. Chop em, slice em, burqa em and then go drive a pickup - the Saudi variant involves driving a Rolls Royce.
Are Saudi women's rights any less important. Talibs are actually idealogical stream of the Saudi wahabism.
