Defence Q&A If the EU create its own army, Will that mean that is the end of NATO?

[Cabatli_TR]

After UK left the European Union, France began to play a more active role in the European Union. France, which acts as the decision making body of the European Union, follows an active foreign policy in many countries and carries out military operations with its army. France also makes serious attempts to establish a "EU Army" to support these policies. Germany is the silent side about this initiative.

You may remember that Macron said in a statement that NATO is a "brain dead" organization. The strong brothers of NATO UK and US seem to be disturbed by these attempts of France and it can be seen that the events that took place left traces in the perception of France within NATO. For example, France which tried to end the Turkish support in Libya with a military attitude, could not prevent Turkey and brought the events took place in the Eastern Mediterranean to NATO's agenda, but could not get a result. Finally, the 90 billion dollar submarine deal between Australia and France was canceled with the initiatives of the UK and US.

France's "EU Army" request and the recent developments seem to have caused discomfort in NATO. If France can establish a common European army, this will be a great success for French foreign policy in many ways, but I think it will have some consequences for NATO as well. I want our members to discuss this topic in this Q&A thread.

Thanks.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1439298028930801665

 

[Pantelis]

I support a military organization of the EU independent of NATO. Why should the world's second largest economy be solely committed to NATO? I think France will eventually make Pesco an alternative to NATO.

 

[guest12]

If they decide to actually create this EU Army we must immediatly start nuclear weapon program regardlass cost.Because that EU Army will purely a Christian/Crusader Army specially if its led by France and will used for geopolitic goals of countries like Greece and Armenia againts us in every single event.It will be literally second coming of Soviet Union(as threat level) sitting right at our border , they will be primary exisnational threat for Turkiye as well as many others like(Morocco , Algeria , Tunisa etc).

 

[Glass🚬]

Yes, I think the end of NATO is on horizon and such a move would also give the Russians the signal to annex smaller eu nations (baltics) without heavy repercussions since the French or the Germans wouldnt risk a standoff for the sake of these nations with the Russians. An EU army wont be the immediate end of NATO tho but the outlook for that alliance is clear, it will cease to exist much to the consequence for those who rely on the US for their security.

 

[Ardabas34]

A European army independent of Nato would be against our interests. They would never take us in and they would side with Greece/Cyprus and even Armenia.

 

[Glass🚬]

One thing to also remind some members here, the eu consists primarily of small, weak and irrelevant states similar to the the size of greece and cyprus with maxed out economies and declining demographics, it wont be a threat to turkey, Turkey and Russia would be a threat to them*

 

[Lool]

A European army independent of Nato would be against our interests. They would never take us in and they would side with Greece/Cyprus and even Armenia.

With all due respect, Turkey will never join the EU whether they formed an EU army or not. Have you seen the recent statements from the Ruling party of Germany? Their new candidate, just like Angela Merkel, clearly stated that they would never accept Turkey to join the EU. The sentiment is shared with France, Greece, Cyprus, and one other nation that I forgot its name!

IMO, it is better for them to form an EU army. Such a move, would disrupt NATO, which will make US and UK both pissed. Thus, it would increase Turkey's geostrategic importance to both the US and UK; as a result, their allegiances may finally start to lean more towards Turkey and who knows maybe they will support your "Blue Homeland" doctrine as a way to get back at France for forming such an act. It is also worthy to note that wherever the US goes, both Canada and Australia also goes. This means that not only may you get direct support from UK and USA but also indirect support from Canada and Australia
Add to that the US is a greater political figure than some random pebble called France worldwide

Again, all of this is hypothetical ofcourse. However, it has a greater chance of forming than Turkey joining the EU. In addition to that, I believe that even the current Turkish government has been waiting for such an act to increase its geopolitical importance to the US amd UK while indirectly aiding in the disruption of ties between EU and US. This, if happened, may be the first sign of the downfall of the EU
The EU isnt monolithic. They are mostly composed of a bunch of cowards that only want to preserve their so-called peace. In all the recent wars that the EU got involved in, Either the US was the one doing actual fighting or proxies

Either way, i believe it was extremely stupid from France to directly challenge the US. Without the US, EU will be severely exposed tbh! Especially to Russia, Turkey, and above all MIGHTY CHINA. Like lool, are you telling me that little old France wanna face all those alone with their so-called EU army? Hahahaha a nice joke tbh. No offense to the EU but i dont expect from any EU members other than Germany, France, Spain, and Italy anything
And the US wont take the challenge lightly, any move by France that will disrupt US interests will be met with even more suffering in the French ranks. May be one of the reason why many EU members havent commented on the idea of forming an EU army. They do know the consequences of such actions; spearheaded by Germany ofcourse

 

[guest12]

IMO, it is better for them to form an EU army. Such a move, would disrupt NATO, which will make US and UK both pissed. Thus, it would increase Turkey's geostrategic importance to both the US and UK; as a result, their allegiances may finally start to lean more towards Turkey and who knows maybe they will support your "Blue Homeland" doctrine as a way to get back at France for forming such an act.

You are forgetting existance of Israel and its proximity to Turkiye.

 

[Lool]

You are forgetting existance of Israel and its proximity to Turkiye.

May you elaborate on what implications that may have, if possible?

 

[guest12]

May you elaborate on what implications that may have, if possible?

U.S.'s entire Middle East foreign policy is all about preventing muslim majority nations from completing their development be it placing loyal dictators who sell out their nation's interests or causing destruction(internal/external) so they will never be threat to Israel.At the end of the day Turkiye too muslim majority nation powerful enough to be threat to Israel's interests.

 

[Lool]

U.S.'s entire Middle East foreign policy is all about preventing muslim majority nations from completing their development be it placing loyal dictators who sell out their nation's interests or causing destruing(internal/external) so they will never be threat to Israel.

Makes sense
Didnt consider that tbh

However, I do believe that even Erdo will accept Israel if and only if Israel supported Turkey's blue homeland doctrine

May be wrong though, lool

 

[guest12]

Makes sense
Didnt consider that tbh

However, I do believe that even Erdo will accept Israel if and only if Israel supported Turkey's blue homeland doctrine

May be wrong though, lool

It doesn't matter one bit if Turkiye accept Israel even recognize Tel Aviv as its capital.We did exactly that in the past Turkiye was Israel's closest muslim majority ally till 2008 Mavi Marmara event but that did not stop U.S. becoming main sponsor of PKK for purpose driving Turkiye into civil war starting from early 90s till today.Israel from day one had no intention of peacefully coexististing with its muslim majority neighbours.

 

[RogerRanger]

In the end the EU can't be a military power without Britain. Britain has the best ports and ship yards in Europe, if you want to build a proper blue-water navy you need Britain in it. In terms of the EU military, I think EU standardization would be good, so your improve the eastern and Southern European armies and air forces to the level of say Sweden. However the French are still the only country in Europe was a proper army/air force/navy. The Italians have a good navy. That's about it.

In terms of defense against Russia and Turkey, that means improved road and rail lines from France and Italy to eastern Europe and French/Italian ships operating out of greek and cyprus ports, the British already had two bases in Cyprus. So again the EU military is weak without Britain. It has no ability to move thousands of troops from France/Holland/Italy east rapidly against the Russians or Turkey. Also what's the EU going to do against the British military? What European air defence systems are there? What SSK's, corvettes, minesweeper, frigate surplus is there in the EU to move east to work against the Russians/Turkey in the Baltic, Black sea and Eastern Mediterranean? The Irish/Belgium/Portugal/Cyprus/Finland/Baltic states/Hungary/Romania/Bulgaria have either no military to speak of or at best averages military's and none of them have a navy. Belarus has a better military than most of them. There would need to be vast amounts of direct military support for them, from France/Spain/Germany/Italy/Holland/Sweden. The Polish are capable as are Denmark, but they aren't on the level of the weastern European nations with their own independent defence industries.

So it wouldn't mean the end of NATO, because Britain/Turkey/US are still the three main powers in NATO.

What I do feel is possible is a much closer direct military alliance between Britain and France. Not against Russia or Germany or Turkey, but just in maintain our own interests in the region and the world.

 

[Nutuk]

IMO NATO is cracking already for a long time. New alliances are already in forming with AUKUS.

EU will in the end form her euro army.

I wonder what Turkey's position will be as that is a bit unclear at the moment

 

[GoatsMilk]

EU exists as long american nato umbrella protects it. Take that away and every european nation starts looking at domestic geopolitical concerns. Most european nations immediate concerns are neighbouring nations. the Polish dont trust the germans or the russians. The french and the germans fear each other. Italy is happy to sell everyone out. The spanish are too far away to be concerned with protecting latvia from russia. We could go on and on. Europe sounds good on paper, in reality every state is competition with each other.

For me europe dividing herself is good for Turkey, the old days where europeans constantly undercut each other is good for the world.

Europe will become a powder keg again of regional conflicts and disputes.

 

[Yasar_TR]

I think the main question here is : Will Europe be able to create it’s own Army?
You have Germany that leads it economically. Germany also exploits the satellite countries by using their cheap production and in turn selling to them expensive German products with state supported credit schemes. Germany will not want to spend to augment it’s armed forces to take care of rest of Europe. NATO‘s umbrella is doing that.
France knows it can not be the economic leader. So it is trying to become a military leader in Europe.
But will countries like Benelux, Italy, Spain, Sweden and non EU countries but with ties to EU like Norway and UK will just sit back and let it happen? All these countries have very good relations with US and UK and are staunch supporters of NATO. Just check which ones have purchased or are purchasing F35 jets. Then cross them out for French support.
Namely : UK, Norway, Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Italy, Denmark. (Spain too will buy 20 F35s to replace it’s F18s in Canary Islands and more to replace the Harriers in Juan Carlos)
US has been heavily involved in Greece recently. In Crete and in Eastern Thrace they have invested extensively. They may not want Greece to become a French and EU military puppet like before when France first left NATO.
So without the participation of these countries who are they going to form the EU army with?

 

[Nilgiri]

I don't think a EU military alliance would mean the NATO one has to end.

They are not mutually exclusive (or at least do not need to be).

It would just most likely be subsumed under NATO.

As a small example there is extensive cooperation between nordic countries like Sweden, Finland and Norway already
Especially given:

A) Crucial apex quad-border point in strategic arctic/barents sea area that these nordic countries share with a certain massive powerful neighbour.

B) The historical context of the area before, during and after the napoleonic war....and how these rested in scoping the next set of major conflict a century later. (This can be studied before the napoleonic era if one desires too but in interest of time/relevance I leave it there for now).

These are both major currents (at least for the folks involved in these countries) that pre-existed interest and influence forces from across the Atlantic ocean like they have done in 20th century.

In fact the very formation of Finland as its modern political entity is one to study regarding this....such things as why it has Swedish as another official language to Finnish....and why its (arguably) greatest leader of 20th century (Mannerheim) made his career first in Tsarist Russian Army (experience which he deployed against the Russians later).

Then once you have considered all of that.....you must simply consider the fact Norway is not part of EU....but instead part of the EFTA (along with such countries as switzerland). They do have a working arrangement with the EU though.

So given this already happening, would Norway simply stop working with say Sweden and Finland on deep* military matters....if EU (which Sweden and Finland are members of) made an official military alliance within its realm....and just because NATO (which Norway is a member of... but Sweden and Finland never have been) is something a bit different in scope (cross-atlantic).

The scope's have to be considered and understood. The cross-atlantic and cross/continental alliance rationale (and what it offers and has provided) doesn't simply evaporate because one more continental one may emerge regionally.

Because regional cooperation in Europe outside of NATO has already long been charted and is extremely strong in precedence.

In the hypothetical that Canada for some reason didn't join NATO....would that mean NORAD never formed?

I don't think so at all.

============

*Consider the recent changes in Sweden's mechanized infantry structure recently (and the changed coming w.r.t artillery soon too)....vis a vis Finland (its close brother ally) with a certain border with a "Bear". Is Norway a NATO country left out of the loop here? Nope.

 

[Anastasius]

I don't think an EU army is even possible. Aside from the cracks between Western-Eastern Europe that are quickly becoming apparent and even the differences in personal interest that the big players in Europe like Britain, France, Germany, Italy, etc, have, France is simply a loose cannon. Everyone knows that they want the top-dog spot in the EU and Europe in general and the other big players - don't, especially Germany. Look at how France keeps skimming in and out of NATO based on their personal whims.

I'd argue that an EU army might have been possible if it was a universal initiative but right now it's basically France pushing it and everyone knows why. As a general rule of thumb, when you are pushing a seemingly "benign" suggestion that seems to benefit everyone but is really for yourself, don't make it too obvious. France has made it too obvious what their motives are.

 

[Ryder]

Eu army wont work without the UK.

When it comes to the EU army these countries would be its biggest contributors.

-France
-Germany
-Italy
-Spain

Thats about it I cant see it working without the UK as the UK has left the EU. Eu army is a plot for France to be the new King of Europe.

But will Italy and Germany accept it? I doubt it.

 

[Huelague]

First, Germany is skeptical about EU-Army. And an EU-Army without Germany is not possible. Second, Germans don’t like Macron and his ‘imperialism’ ambitions and wannabe leadership. Remember Merkel speed about Macron. Third, German don’t want creep under France Nuclear Umbrella. And of course, this umbrella and Army will heavily paid by German taxpayers.

An EU-Army would mean a break with USA a bit far. For US it means less influence in EU. This gap would/could be filled by Russia or China. Which not everyone wants. Many Europeans are still to much afraid of Russia. Rightly. Most Europeans are not willing to risk his secure because of Macrons ambitions. And without an agreement with Russia it’s hard to build up an EU-army.

Next point, where is our standing in a possible EU-Army. They can build one without us, no doubt, but less powerful and and much less capabilities. At best, European can protect them self.