Navy Turkish Aircraft Carrier Project

[Zafer]

I am fully behind indigenously produced weapons. A country like Turkey that has financial constraints and limited resources can not afford to waste money and valuable foreign currency in buying weapons.
But PPP is only good if you are not dependent on foreign imports. Therefore effects of high PPP based GDP is short lived.
Look at Turkeys exports and imports in the last year. 167 billion dollars exports and 210 billion dollars imports. The country lives on imported goods. The deficit has to be paid by tourism income and out of taxpayers‘ pockets or by borrowing.
Look at India ; Nominal GDP is 2.6 trillion dollars. But PPP adjusted GDP is 8.7 trillion dollars.
Look at Japan: Nominal GDP is 4.9 trillion dollars. But PPP adjusted GDP is 5.2 trillion dollars.
Do you really think India is richer than Japan?
Real sign of wealth is the measure of your Nominal GDP.

Real wealth is how much goods you can buy with your currency.
When the government can buy goods with national money they can print money and buy whatever they want.
That will effect the economy but won't stop the government from doing it.

 

[mulj]

if turkey manage to exploit energy fields found in black sea in short time, some oil fields if found too, then whole macroeconomy graphic will adjust within self, energy sustainibility changes a lot in terms of competitiveness and foreign currency flow but in general all is based on basic economy curve, guns or butter an society answer on everelasting dilema about it. what is priority fat bellies or strong army.

 

[adenl]

if turkey manage to exploit energy fields found in black sea in short time, some oil fields if found too, then whole macroeconomy graphic will adjust within self, energy sustainibility changes a lot in terms of competitiveness and foreign currency flow but in general all is based on basic economy curve, guns or butter an society answer on everelasting dilema about it. what is priority fat bellies or strong army.

Yes, money is merely a claim on energy. And energy is not 'just' an input of economy, but the foundation.

 

[Nilgiri]

Look at India ; Nominal GDP is 2.6 trillion dollars. But PPP adjusted GDP is 8.7 trillion dollars.
Look at Japan: Nominal GDP is 4.9 trillion dollars. But PPP adjusted GDP is 5.2 trillion dollars.
Do you really think India is richer than Japan?

Richer/productive is more a per capita argument.

Japan certainly produces/consumes more per capita each year.

This is not a PPP vs nominal thing.

Of course India's total in PPP these days is going to be larger than Japan's. It is an aggregate of a population more than 10 times larger.

If the PPP is 9 trillion versus 5 trillion for IND vs JPN....well that is driven by such things as total energy consumption in India being double that of Japan. (34 exajoules versus 18 exajoules in 2019 according to BP):

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf

Again consuming double the energy as an aggregate does not mean per person (in fact Japan per person consumed 5 times the energy than India).

None of this detracts from the simple fact that PPP is a far better measure of actual final consumption and true GDP....compared to nominal.

It is the same reason why nominal-constant is better than nominal-current too in general for most countries as inflation-indexing is far more impactful (on the population) compared to simple exchange rate indexing. PPP just goes on step further and looks at the base reference price levels given varying integration/saturation worldwide for that w.r.t USD.

Real sign of wealth is the measure of your Nominal GDP.

Not really, wealth is another measurement different to GDP. It is an integral and also has to be estimated (from GDP it is generally influenced by savings % of GDP each year added up and inflation + depreciation subtracted).

GDP is just an estimate of total yearly production. Not all of it is saved or converted to wealth....not all forms of consumption lead to same level of wealth too.

Wealth estimates can be found here among other places:

Global Wealth Report

The most comprehensive and up-to-date resource of its kind. Our Global wealth report analyzes the household wealth of 5.2 billion people across the globe.

www.credit-suisse.com

 

[Quasar]

kind of off topic

-When we start talking about AC at some point among many other things we should also talk about AEW. ok in our case it is not a must since we will have ÇAFRAD and our area of interest is mainly mediterranean sea and nearby waters and Paece Eagles are doing /will be doing the job in this close vicinty with some limitatinons but E 2 type carrier based AEW aricarft would be a force multiplier... now it seems like a fantasy

However

-we have almost completed our to do the list but I belive eventually we will be in need of national AEW aircrafts both maned and unmaned who knows AC project will/may lead to some questions concerning our future needs in AEW

 

[Yasar_TR]

Richer/productive is more a per capita argument.

Japan certainly produces/consumes more per capita each year.

This is not a PPP vs nominal thing.

Of course India's total in PPP these days is going to be larger than Japan's. It is an aggregate of a population more than 10 times larger.

If the PPP is 9 trillion versus 5 trillion for IND vs JPN....well that is driven by such things as total energy consumption in India being double that of Japan. (34 exajoules versus 18 exajoules in 2019 according to BP):

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf

Again consuming double the energy as an aggregate does not mean per person (in fact Japan per person consumed 5 times the energy than India).

None of this detracts from the simple fact that PPP is a far better measure of actual final consumption and true GDP....compared to nominal.

It is the same reason why nominal-constant is better than nominal-current too in general for most countries as inflation-indexing is far more impactful (on the population) compared to simple exchange rate indexing. PPP just goes on step further and looks at the base reference price levels given varying integration/saturation worldwide for that w.r.t USD.



Not really, wealth is another measurement different to GDP. It is an integral and also has to be estimated (from GDP it is generally influenced by savings % of GDP each year added up and inflation + depreciation subtracted).

GDP is just an estimate of total yearly production. Not all of it is saved or converted to wealth....not all forms of consumption lead to same level of wealth too.

Wealth estimates can be found here among other places:

Global Wealth Report

The most comprehensive and up-to-date resource of its kind. Our Global wealth report analyzes the household wealth of 5.2 billion people across the globe.

www.credit-suisse.com

I hope you are not telling me that India is wealthier than Japan!
Nominal GDP, is a good “pro rata” indicator of national wealth. If you can produce goods worth of 5 trillion dollars. You are richer than the country producing 3 trillion dollars of goods.
Also with the same logic, China is wealthier than Germany or Japan. But Germans and Japanese are richer than Chinese. (Nominal per capita GDP)
No need to be pedantic and beat around the bush. Pro rata, nominal GDP is a very good indicator of national wealth! Especially for people with simple minds like me!

ps I know and understand what you are saying. But I want to simplify it.

 

[Nilgiri]

I hope you are not telling me that India is wealthier than Japan!

Well you hoped correctly as I led with per capita being the thing you are looking for as for the "wealthier".

PPP per capita, Japan is like 42k....compared to India 7k or so. Thats like 6 times "wealthier" (raw influx per year).

So I don't get the big deal making out nominal vs PPP argument for this.

Nominal makes equivalent sense (as PPP) if the country is trading (and setting the exchange rate with USD) at same overall prevalence to its own production sectors in the economy.

That is why developed countries get little bump from using PPP, as their price levels for everything are more or less standardised with each other by a huge amount of trade and investment reference they have done with each other for decades (unlike newer countries opening up more recently i.e "developing").

But for overall accuracy (given such a world does not exist everywhere where every country has the same integration with USD forex w.r.t local economy...i.e does not trade in similar proportion to its consumption/production sector composition)....PPP really cannot be beat (though it still is just an estimate, just a less bad one than nominal).

If there was hypothetically an advanced alien civilisation that had unlocked warp drive technology and singularity-based energy etc etc.....and can produce say an exajoule of energy at very low cost.....would its GDP be 0 dollars simply because it has not used any USD to do this and has not traded via it?

If you can think of this hypothetical extreme, you understand the reason why IMF did the ICP program for PPP at the close of the cold war. There were huge distortions present in nominal given all manner of varying trade exposure levels...that were distorting the actual consumption comparison internationally.

There was literally no way that India was twice as rich as China back then, while China was consuming twice or three times the energy....simply GDP number (in USD) was helped by India at that point traded a lot more with the world (using USD) relative to its economy than China.

If the logic applies back then, it applies now....until something better is given.

 

[Nilgiri]

Nominal GDP, is a good “pro rata” indicator of national wealth. If you can produce goods worth of 5 trillion dollars. You are richer than the country producing 3 trillion dollars of goods.

If you only have half your land tradeable rather than full amount....you are only going to get half the valuation you otherwise would.

Similarly if a country is near 100% integrated with USD-liquidity supply+consumption chains internationally...it will get a far different valuation using that same USD as the reference...compared to a 50% integrated one.

Doesn't mean the other half of the (same) valuation doesnt exist for a 50% integrated country. Hence the need for PPP to look at the full picture rather than assume every country is integrated+referenced w.r.t USD the same amount.

If India truly produced 3/5 i.e 60% of Japan's true total production....it wouldn't be consuming double the energy ( a base input for everything). It really cannot be put simpler than that.

So no you are not "richer" simply by your raw aggregate....it depends how many people are used to produce that raw aggregate.

What's next, if you use 10 people to produce 100 apples....you are richer than 1 person producing 50 apples (if apples and people were the only 2 things that existed for simplicity)?...simply because 100 is twice 50? C'mon.

Also with the same logic, China is wealthier than Germany or Japan. But Germans and Japanese are richer than Chinese. (Nominal per capita GDP)

Uh, Germans and Japanese are richer than Chinese with PPP per capita.

Its the per capita that matters in that argument once again.

China gets a bit more of a relative bump in its PPP number (compared to nominal) than Japan or Germany, because once again Japan and Germany has far longer history of integrating their supply and consumption chains with world USD forex reference....compared to China which is well on its way to same level of integration but not quite there yet.

 

[Xenon54]

Some people don’t have 50 Liras in their pockets but dream of buying a Mercedes Benz like the big boys. The house they are living in is crumbling on their heads but they dream of how Adriana Lima will gladly suck their d**k someday after they get rich and powerful- so instead of getting their shit together and be realistic they waste their last money on lottery tickets in hope of hitting the jackpot.

You guys are high on heroin or something... Better come back to Earth and have a quick reality check instead of aiming for the stars you can’t reach.

I also want Turkey to be a Superpower and to have 10 Nuclear aircraft carrier groups with all the destroyers, Submarines, Planes and bombs you can imagine so we can fuck everyone we want from Singapore to Panama and beyond but Turkey is not America and is not even half of Italy and South Korea economically. Seeing how Turkey is it won’t get much better anytime soon so why don’t you guys be REALISTIC for once instead of believing in your fantasies and fairytales.

Instead of wasting time and resources on chasing stupid dreams Turkey better gets its shit together economically and spend it’s dwindling budget on doing everything to secure the seas around it first. Turkey needs more frigates, corvettes, fast attack boats and submarines and all the firepower you can imagine NOW.

Having a strong economy is the biggest deterrance for enemies, look at all the small european countries with basically non existent militaries compared to the world powers are they stupid to put themselves on mercy of others?
No, they have a strong economy which automatically gives you diplomatic levarage, how can a small Switzerland be the 8th most diplomatically influencial country in the world?
What are we gonna do with a expensive AC? Whom are we gonna fight with it? Where are we gonna project power with it? Will a further confrontation even help Turkey at all?
You guys underestimate diplomacy, war starts when diplomacy fails, Turkey knows how to make war but sucks at diplomacy as we have seen in recent years so what do you think, should we strenghten our economy or invest in expensive stuff without the suitable economy in the first place?

Look at this List, its topped by european countries and almost none of them get their influence throught Military force.

 

[mulj]

Maybe because they are worlds money laundry machine and that they did not have war for abour 300 years?

 

[Balamir]

Commander of the Istanbul Shipyard, Rear Admiral Çakır: Currently, we have the ability to design all kinds of surface warships. In response to the question "Can you build an aircraft carrier", we say "Easy". Because large ship design is easier. As the ship gets smaller, your constraints increase, you have to install almost the same systems in smaller spaces and volumes with lower weights. When the incoming foreign delegations see the Heybeliada and Büyükada corvettes, they are amazed at how we have placed so many systems on such a small platform. These two ships do not lack the features of modern multi-purpose frigates in the world. The admiration of foreign delegations is the most important proof of the level we have reached. "

Uçak gemisi yapmak bizim için daha kolay

İstanbul Tersanesi Komutanı Tuğamiral Çakır, her türlü suüstü savaş gemisini dizayn edebilecek yeteneğe sahip olduklarını belirterek “Uçak gemisi yapmak bizim için daha kolay” dedi.

www.denizhaber.net

 

[adenl]

Commander of the Istanbul Shipyard, Rear Admiral Çakır: Currently, we have the ability to design all kinds of surface warships. In response to the question "Can you build an aircraft carrier", we say "Easy". Because large ship design is easier. As the ship gets smaller, your constraints increase, you have to install almost the same systems in smaller spaces and volumes with lower weights. When the incoming foreign delegations see the Heybeliada and Büyükada corvettes, they are amazed at how we have placed so many systems on such a small platform. These two ships do not lack the features of modern multi-purpose frigates in the world. The admiration of foreign delegations is the most important proof of the level we have reached. "

Uçak gemisi yapmak bizim için daha kolay

İstanbul Tersanesi Komutanı Tuğamiral Çakır, her türlü suüstü savaş gemisini dizayn edebilecek yeteneğe sahip olduklarını belirterek “Uçak gemisi yapmak bizim için daha kolay” dedi.

www.denizhaber.net

Well, this should close the discussion whether or not Turkey is able to design an aircraft carrier. Bear in mind that this admiral's statement is more than 6 years old!

 

[Sinan]

Commander of the Istanbul Shipyard, Rear Admiral Çakır: Currently, we have the ability to design all kinds of surface warships. In response to the question "Can you build an aircraft carrier", we say "Easy". Because large ship design is easier. As the ship gets smaller, your constraints increase, you have to install almost the same systems in smaller spaces and volumes with lower weights. When the incoming foreign delegations see the Heybeliada and Büyükada corvettes, they are amazed at how we have placed so many systems on such a small platform. These two ships do not lack the features of modern multi-purpose frigates in the world. The admiration of foreign delegations is the most important proof of the level we have reached. "

Uçak gemisi yapmak bizim için daha kolay

İstanbul Tersanesi Komutanı Tuğamiral Çakır, her türlü suüstü savaş gemisini dizayn edebilecek yeteneğe sahip olduklarını belirterek “Uçak gemisi yapmak bizim için daha kolay” dedi.

www.denizhaber.net

If what he is saying is true, than one would wonder why did we bought the design from Navantia for LHD?

 

[Sinan]

We can a

Well, this should close the discussion whether or not Turkey is able to design an aircraft carrier. Bear in mind that this admiral's statement is more than 6 years old!

We can argue and discuss about everyone's statements. No one is Allah.

 

[Balamir]

Commander of the Istanbul Shipyard, Rear Admiral Çakır: Currently, we have the ability to design all kinds of surface warships. In response to the question "Can you build an aircraft carrier", we say "Easy". Because large ship design is easier. As the ship gets smaller, your constraints increase, you have to install almost the same systems in smaller spaces and volumes with lower weights. When the incoming foreign delegations see the Heybeliada and Büyükada corvettes, they are amazed at how we have placed so many systems on such a small platform. These two ships do not lack the features of modern multi-purpose frigates in the world. The admiration of foreign delegations is the most important proof of the level we have reached. "

Uçak gemisi yapmak bizim için daha kolay

İstanbul Tersanesi Komutanı Tuğamiral Çakır, her türlü suüstü savaş gemisini dizayn edebilecek yeteneğe sahip olduklarını belirterek “Uçak gemisi yapmak bizim için daha kolay” dedi.

www.denizhaber.net

If what he is saying is true, than one would wonder why did we bought the design from Navantia for LHD?

Because the domestic and national design of RMK Marine, which won the tender, was canceled for political reasons. (Gezi protests!)

Havuzlu Çikarma Gemisi Projesi

www.rmkmarine.com.tr

 

[Sinan]

Because the domestic and national design of RMK Marine, which won the tender, was canceled for political reasons. (Gezi protests!)
Havuzlu Çikarma Gemisi Projesi

RMK Marine and Istanbul Shipyard is not the same thing. Past that, i really have my reserves. You know China bought Varyag from Russia, didn't tried to build on their own at the first time. Turkey bought the designs for LHD. Didn't tried to design it's own sub-marines but bought designs from Germany. Didn't design and build drill ships but bought them.

Now, a commander comes and says, we can design and build an aircraft carrier. Sounds awkward to me. Maybe he is saying true, i don't know i'm not the expert. @anmdt

 

[Anmdt]

Commander of the Istanbul Shipyard, Rear Admiral Çakır: Currently, we have the ability to design all kinds of surface warships. In response to the question "Can you build an aircraft carrier", we say "Easy". Because large ship design is easier. As the ship gets smaller, your constraints increase, you have to install almost the same systems in smaller spaces and volumes with lower weights. When the incoming foreign delegations see the Heybeliada and Büyükada corvettes, they are amazed at how we have placed so many systems on such a small platform. These two ships do not lack the features of modern multi-purpose frigates in the world. The admiration of foreign delegations is the most important proof of the level we have reached. "

Uçak gemisi yapmak bizim için daha kolay

İstanbul Tersanesi Komutanı Tuğamiral Çakır, her türlü suüstü savaş gemisini dizayn edebilecek yeteneğe sahip olduklarını belirterek “Uçak gemisi yapmak bizim için daha kolay” dedi.

www.denizhaber.net

Because the domestic and national design of RMK Marine, which won the tender, was canceled for political reasons. (Gezi protests!)

Havuzlu Çikarma Gemisi Projesi

www.rmkmarine.com.tr

It didn't actually won the tender maybe you refer to milgem project which RMK has won and later cancelled, it was quite complicated -the tender process-, suddenly the RfP has changed in favor of Sedef and the winner has became pre-destined. But RMK's design had asisstance from abroad, yet it has more local contribution and was more promising for training and gaining knowledge on such vessels compared to Sedef-Navantia.

RMK Marine and Istanbul Shipyard is not the same thing. Past that, i really have my reserves. You know China bought Varyag from Russia, didn't tried to build on their own at the first time. Turkey bought the designs for LHD. Didn't tried to design it's own sub-marines but bought designs from Germany. Didn't design and build drill ships but bought them.

Now, a commander comes and says, we can design and build an aircraft carrier. Sounds awkward to me. Maybe he is saying true, i don't know i'm not the expert. @anmdt

He is partially right, fitting all systems on smaller platforms is like playing puzzle, it is an art. But an aircraft carrier is not hard in terms of space management. It is rather enormous and complex in terms of capabilities.
And he is also right constraints are more flexible on an aircraft carrier, more relax. But should note again it is too complex that these matters can be ignored beside of the complexity.
But also an aircraft carrier is a niche platform, very niche one which requires a culture from past of operating and designing it. Without it, it is impossible.

 

[Xenon54]

Maybe because they are worlds money laundry machine and that they did not have war for abour 300 years?

Dude you grossly underestimate Swiss economy, its not as simple as you say, let me give you an exsample, i was at a customer today who produces all kind of pharmaceuticals, i worked on a reactor where pills for breast cancer treatment get produced, once charge in that reactor is worth 300 million.
These guys produce day and night in shifts and thats just one product of many of this company and Switzerland has many world giant companies be it in high-tech, food or luxury segment.
What do you think how many tonns of hazelnuts must Turkey export to keep up with that? Let me tell you the hard truth, Turkeys total exports are still smaller than tiny Switzerland (180B$ vs. 310B$ in 2019).
This is where we need to invest instead of burying our money in concrete and steel.

The company i was at is Hoffmann La-Roche in case anyone wonders, you might have seen their logo on one of your pills before.

 

[mulj]

Dude you grossly underestimate Swiss economy, its not as simple as you say, let me give you an exsample, i was at a customer today who produces all kind of pharmaceuticals, i worked on a reactor where pills for breast cancer treatment get produced, once charge in that reactor is worth 300 million.
These guys produce day and night in shifts and thats just one product of many of this company and Switzerland has many world giant companies be it in high-tech, food or luxury segment.
What do you think how many tonns of hazelnuts must Turkey export to keep up with that? Let me tell you the hard truth, Turkeys total exports are still smaller than tiny Switzerland (180B$ vs. 310B$ in 2019).
This is where we need to invest instead of burying our money in concrete and steel.

The company i was at is Hoffmann La-Roche in case anyone wonders, you might have seen their logo on one of your pills before.

View attachment 12832

I am not underestimating them, i am very well aware that swiss are giants in chemical industry for example and that the banking sector is far from as their primary source of income, it was bit sarcastic but 300 years of peace and provided clout from their neibhours is unique luxury not available for everybody and hardly representative example. Each country has its own path and needs and simple comparations are inadequate for objective conclusions. Will not say that you can not learn from them in some things but turkey has different role in worlds affairs and by my opinion far more important then nice amd cosy alps country..

 

[Xenon54]

I am not underestimating them, i am very well aware that swiss are giants in chemical industry for example and that the banking sector is far from as their primary source of income, it was bit sarcastic but 300 years of peace and provided clout from their neibhours is unique luxury not available for everybody and hardly representative example. Each country has its own path and needs and simple comparations are inadequate for objective conclusions. Will not say that you can not learn from them in some things but turkey has different role in worlds affairs and by my opinion far more important then nice amd cosy alps country..

Fair, but my point is Turkish economy simply cant sustain any more lavish projects, the ressources are scarce and must be used wisely, i see that AC project as nothing but a prestije object, a very expensive one.
Meanwhile there are many places where those funds could be more useful but no investment is being done because the money is missing.