India AMCA Program

[Spitfire9]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1748722640804614384

Unless I have been misinformed by Indian sources, the design was completed at the end of 2022. It was being forwarded for CDR by IAF. IAF approved CDR early 2023 so the next step was CCS approval. Nearly a year later there is no word of that happening.

I wonder if GOI wants to see a contract for GE F414 production in India before giving AMCA prototype and testing the go ahead. Perhaps GOI wants to see a contract for a 110+kN engine agreed with SAFRAN before AMCA the go ahead.

In GOI's shoes- which I am not - I would be inclined to wait for a contract with SAFRAN before committing to spending (reportedly) 1.8 billion USD on the AMCA prototype and testing phase.

 

[Spitfire9]

I read a few days ago that a spokesperson for DRDO or ADA or HAL announced that AMCA would fly 4-7 years after CCS gave the go ahead. Given that almost everything concerning indigenous fighter programmes has been done many years late, my assumption is that date of CCS approval + 7 years is the more realistic date for first flight.

Assuming that an engine deal with SAFRAN is awaited before CCS approval is given (more likely 2025 than 2024 to me), my best guess for prototype first flight is 2032. Then 3 years' testing will be required, ending in 2035. It is only when the aircraft is accepted by IAF and ordered that steps to manufacture it will be taken - no non-state owned company is going to set up for production until it gets a contract to produce. 2 years sounds the minimum to me to set up production with production starting 2037 and first delivery to IAF taking place in 2040.

I would anticipate AMCA EIS with IAF around 2042 -18 years from now.

One hears that Pakistan expects to add a 5G Chinese fighter to its inventory soon. Does India not need to order F-35 or Su-57 or Su-75 or even KF-21?

GOI may not want to fund whatever SAFRAN will be asking for an engine deal, which would leave the AMCA programme where? Would it still be launched using GE F414 with no guarantee that the engine would be supplied if India fell out with the US and with US control over export customers?

 

[Marlii]

I read a few days ago that a spokesperson for DRDO or ADA or HAL announced that AMCA would fly 4-7 years after CCS gave the go ahead. Given that almost everything concerning indigenous fighter programmes has been done many years late, my assumption is that date of CCS approval + 7 years is the more realistic date for first flight.

Assuming that an engine deal with SAFRAN is awaited before CCS approval is given (more likely 2025 than 2024 to me), my best guess for prototype first flight is 2032. Then 3 years' testing will be required, ending in 2035. It is only when the aircraft is accepted by IAF and ordered that steps to manufacture it will be taken - no non-state owned company is going to set up for production until it gets a contract to produce. 2 years sounds the minimum to me to set up production with production starting 2037 and first delivery to IAF taking place in 2040.

I would anticipate AMCA EIS with IAF around 2042 -18 years from now.

One hears that Pakistan expects to add a 5G Chinese fighter to its inventory soon. Does India not need to order F-35 or Su-57 or Su-75 or even KF-21?

GOI may not want to fund whatever SAFRAN will be asking for an engine deal, which would leave the AMCA programme where? Would it stll be launched using GE F414 with no guarantee that the engine would be supplied if India fell out with the US and with US control over export customers?

Whats with the prototype flying and the safran deal . Reading some info from blackpilled indian defence experts and then repeating it here.Pakistan got j31s... Good for them.They need to spend more when the indian economy becomes 15 or 20 times bigger than them.

 

[Spitfire9]

Whats with the prototype flying and the safran deal .

Because India wants sovereignty over AMCA - no dependence on a foreign engine supplier. It would be better to know that can be achieved (ie a contract with SAFRAN giving India full sovereignty over the engine) before launching the AMCA programme. If a deal cannot be agreed with SAFRAN, either settle for AMCA Mk1 with GE F414 engines or delay and try to do an acceptable deal with RR before launching AMCA prototypes and testing. I think that a US OEM is not suitable.

Reading some info from blackpilled indian defence experts and then repeating it here.Pakistan got j31s...

'Reading some info from blackpilled indian defence experts and then repeating it here.Pakistan got j31s...' is not what I did. The source was reported to be the Pakistan air force leader.
Source: https://www.defensenews.com/air/202...uy-chinese-fc-31-fighter-jets-says-air-chief/

The issue is what will India procure to counter a 5G Pakistan air force fighter if one turns up soon (rather than around 2040).

 

[Nilgiri]

I read a few days ago that a spokesperson for DRDO or ADA or HAL announced that AMCA would fly 4-7 years after CCS gave the go ahead. Given that almost everything concerning indigenous fighter programmes has been done many years late, my assumption is that date of CCS approval + 7 years is the more realistic date for first flight.

Assuming that an engine deal with SAFRAN is awaited before CCS approval is given (more likely 2025 than 2024 to me), my best guess for prototype first flight is 2032. Then 3 years' testing will be required, ending in 2035. It is only when the aircraft is accepted by IAF and ordered that steps to manufacture it will be taken - no non-state owned company is going to set up for production until it gets a contract to produce. 2 years sounds the minimum to me to set up production with production starting 2037 and first delivery to IAF taking place in 2040.

I would anticipate AMCA EIS with IAF around 2042 -18 years from now.

One hears that Pakistan expects to add a 5G Chinese fighter to its inventory soon. Does India not need to order F-35 or Su-57 or Su-75 or even KF-21?

GOI may not want to fund whatever SAFRAN will be asking for an engine deal, which would leave the AMCA programme where? Would it still be launched using GE F414 with no guarantee that the engine would be supplied if India fell out with the US and with US control over export customers?

Because India wants sovereignty over AMCA - no dependence on a foreign engine supplier. It would be better to know that can be achieved (ie a contract with SAFRAN giving India full sovereignty over the engine) before launching the AMCA programme. If a deal cannot be agreed with SAFRAN, either settle for AMCA Mk1 with GE F414 engines or delay and try to do an acceptable deal with RR before launching AMCA prototypes and testing. I think that a US OEM is not suitable.


'Reading some info from blackpilled indian defence experts and then repeating it here.Pakistan got j31s...' is not what I did. The source was reported to be the Pakistan air force leader.
Source: https://www.defensenews.com/air/202...uy-chinese-fc-31-fighter-jets-says-air-chief/

The issue is what will India procure to counter a 5G Pakistan air force fighter if one turns up soon (rather than around 2040).

You can just watch and see yourself rather than speculating with selective bits and pieces. Time is the best proof in the end and airs everything out. There is no need to be needlessly pessimistic or optimistic given India's size and resources coming to bear pushing reform in every choke point that is found in the system strain.

Just like there is no need to be needlessly pessimistic about (much closer ratio) South Korea in dealing with the North and its sudden breakout into the nuclear realm (nukes that are far more of a power level than 5th gen aircraft).

One country simply "gets" the importance of structured economy (and the importance of capable distributed decision making and intellectualism spread and arranged as far as possible), the other does what it does to its people to get full preserving of its highest dynasty and regime....and everything concentrated commensurate to that (no matter the greater cost). Same stock of people, the discrepancies in the journey now are apparent for all to see for a reason.

There's an underlying reason India is working to get from about 70 chess grandmasters to 100 ASAP and then 200 after that.

We then look at the countries ahead of us in this in per capita way from the journey of historic spread/interest it took from India to Persia to Central Asia, Russia, Arabia, Turkey and Europe....and apply what is to be learned from them to grow more of it within us (again).

Countries (specifically 2 between India, Iran and Central Asia) that have a big fat zero in GMs (in this spread arc) because of the solid anti-intellectualism they have clearly let permeate in their political system and whichever other systems stemming from that, simply have to rely on others for intellectual fruit in the end.

Otherwise they wouldn't be staring at a BM arsenal (donated by another), they would have figured out a basic SLV conversion like the Chess GM capable countries on either side. This extends to every other endeavour. It's really that simple in the end. Chess, space and every other endeavour (can look up science output, IP creation and trade with world and much more).

Its why one country talks about how to get its 600 billion forex pile to 1 trillion dollars ASAP.....whereas the other one....well nuff said. They don't know the basic cart from the donkey it seems, forget about which to put first to get out of the mess they are in.

 

[Marlii]

The issue is what will India procure to counter a 5G Pakistan air force fighter if one turns up soon (rather than around 2040).

We will procure.. Nothing. China has nearly 200 j20s till now and we didnt procure anything. We just strengthened our airdefences massively. Pakistanis can buy whatever they want they are a garrison state which has people who dont have the capacity to think about the future.

 

[Spitfire9]

@Nilgiri, @Marlii - interesting to hear what you have to say.

I am a little confused. If there is no great need for India to acquire a 5G aircraft, why is India looking at paying SAFRAN $5+ billion to develop an engine suitable for use with AMCA?

I have no doubt that SAFRAN can pass on the know how to build such an engine but I don't see them passing on the know why. I think that can only be acquired by doing a mass of research. Additionally, since India never invested in the facilities to develop and test engines for the Kaveri project - high altitude test chambers, requisite wind tunnels, airborne test facilities etc - most testing would be conducted in France. At the end of the project India would still not have the ability to design, build and test competitive fast jet engines.

Why not spend the $5+ billion developing an Indian engine over the next 15-20 years? Putting a bunch of brilliant engineers into a kind of Indian Skunk Works would result in India joining the select league of fast jet engine manufacturers.

 

[Nilgiri]

@Nilgiri, @Marlii - interesting to hear what you have to say.

I am a little confused. If there is no great need for India to acquire a 5G aircraft, why is India looking at paying SAFRAN $5+ billion to develop an engine suitable for use with AMCA?

I have no doubt that SAFRAN can pass on the know how to build such an engine but I don't see them passing on the know why. I think that can only be acquired by doing a mass of research. Additionally, since India never invested in the facilities to develop and test engines for the Kaveri project - high altitude test chambers, requisite wind tunnels, airborne test facilities etc - most testing would be conducted in France. At the end of the project India would still not have the ability to design, build and test competitive fast jet engines.

Why not spend the $5+ billion developing an Indian engine over the next 15-20 years? Putting a bunch of brilliant engineers into a kind of Indian Skunk Works would result in India joining the select league of fast jet engine manufacturers.

There is a great need, it was introduced by PLAAF already....given China is:

a) the source + scale of foreseeable frontier tech to India's security neighbourhood
b) not a real inverted pendulum situation like Pakistan's setup (which constrains Pakistan mightily whatever they announce a desire/intention regarding frontier technology adoption at any juncture)....i.e PRC is a completely different kind of entity so finding counters to senior automatically scale to junior.

It is just not alarming/desperate need, given if IAF simulates (with allies in say the QUAD) these evolving threats as exceedingly potent, the counters lie in destruction of airbases to begin with for example (with the arsenal India brings to bear there, that it is evolving and scaling too).

You have to take into account the strengths/weaknesses at all layers, not just the direct equivalents within a tier. Remote sensing and a missile arsenal that needs to be employed for saturation if over-potent units contained.

This is already playing a role w.r.t whatever the plans is with the Tibetan airbases that can host the J-20 for example....given there are only a handful (given the nature of Tibet), so resources need to be dedicated to making them non-operational as possible in a potential war that necessitates it (if assets simulated to need those resources used in the initial phase etc).

Now having 5th gen A2A and SEAD for example yourself means these resources need not be used at this phase and can be employed in the planning and prosecution of other aspects and phases of the war. This is what drives the AMCA and everything related to it....they cannot be delayed unreasonably given what would then be needed from other resources to backfill this as say a disparity sustains and cascades (this is what drives every frontier tech program in the world).

So cost-wise to security-wise there is a need, its just not an unanswerable one in some vacuum. This all scales to anything that happens with Pakistan which has its additional precarious inverted pendulum feature with high squelching of the fruit to make thorns sharp first and at almost any cost (or extreme garrison/bunker state as marlii describes).

 

[Sai]

Is there any news regarding the production method employed for the titanium bulkhead in the AMCA? Specifically, is MIDHANI's isothermal forging press being utilized, or are they opting for powder metallurgy or advanced welding techniques?

 

[Nilgiri]

Is there any news regarding the production method employed for the titanium bulkhead in the AMCA? Specifically, is MIDHANI's isothermal forging press being utilized, or are they opting for powder metallurgy or advanced welding techniques?

Likely all of the above given there are many parts and sizes in the end....and from what I can see of the capital equipment acquired so far.

 

[Afif]

You have to take into account the strengths/weaknesses at all layers, not just the direct equivalents within a tier. Remote sensing and a missile arsenal that needs to be employed for saturation if over-potent units contained.

This is already playing a role w.r.t whatever the plans is with the Tibetan airbases that can host the J-20 for example....given there are only a handful (given the nature of Tibet), so resources need to be dedicated to making them non-operational as possible in a potential war that necessitates it (if assets simulated to need those resources used in the initial phase etc).

That is actually very true. J20 in this context does not make PLAAF decisive. Instead of calculating 1vs1, the main idea is to avoid the enemy strength and strike his weakness with friendly strength. IAF in this scenario using Brahmos, Pralay & future SSM systems can practically saturate those few PLAAF bases.

I learned that (during developing a hypothetical model for BD vs India,) when I realised India also runs into a kind of similar paradox into its East & North East.
Where 7/11 IAF stations are withing GMLRS strike range from BD's territory. (Remaining 3 could hit by Type A GMLRS)


Edit- let's see after 'Bad Blood' if me and @Joe Shearer can make time to test each other's theories and military genius.

 

[Spitfire9]

I believe I read reports that a titanium AMCA bulkead was produced a year or so ago. Does India have a forge capable of making such a component?

 

[Nilgiri]

That is actually very true. J20 in this context does not make PLAAF decisive. Instead of calculating 1vs1, the main idea is to avoid the enemy strength and strike his weakness with friendly strength. IAF in this scenario using Brahmos, Pralay & future SSM systems can practically saturate those few PLAAF bases.

I learned that (during developing a hypothetical model for BD vs India,) when I realised India also runs into a kind of similar paradox into its East & North East.
Where 7/11 IAF stations are withing GMLRS strike range from BD's territory. (Remaining 3 could hit by Type A GMLRS)


Edit- let's see after 'Bad Blood' if me and @Joe Shearer can make time to test each other's theories and military genius.

Given the time you are investing as well in the current effort, I would be happy to help in any way possible for what you would like to do later as well.

 

[Nilgiri]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1728717932811964800

What's the largest forging press in India? Has there been any consideration of 3D printing the bulkheads? TAI is using Sciaky Electron Beam printers to make the titanium bulkheads. It should be sufficient to reach the required mechanical specs for the material.

Sciaky, Inc. to Deliver World's Largest Metal Electron Beam DED 3D Printer, a Customized EBAM® 300 Series Additive Manufacturing System, to Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI)

/PRNewswire/ -- Sciaky, Inc., a subsidiary of Phillips Service Industries, Inc. (PSI) and leading supplier of industrial metal 3D printing solutions, announced...

www.prnewswire.com

@Nilgiri

I dont know the answers here. Maybe @Gessler has some insight. I have bookmarked the original YT video for later measured perusal and tell you if I gleam anything useful from it.

Thank you for bringing this to my attention.

Is there any news regarding the production method employed for the titanium bulkhead in the AMCA? Specifically, is MIDHANI's isothermal forging press being utilized, or are they opting for powder metallurgy or advanced welding techniques?

I believe I read reports that a titanium AMCA bulkead was produced a year or so ago. Does India have a forge capable of making such a component?

I might as well address these all together at the current juncture.

The bulkhead being one piece (like the F-35 with the cleveland et al. forge rated at 50k tons) is not a current priority w.r.t capital equipment acquisition for the prototype and maybe limited series production of AMCA too. From what I gather this will be acquired later (if advantage exists over the progression of the welding method of the current component capacity at home).

This concerns the largest structural piece of AMCA, there are lot of smaller pieces that are covered by existing equipment and knowhow.

The details are largely front loaded in this presentation (which Rodeo first brought to my attention earlier), along with a broader look into India's existing expertise and RnD w.r.t Titanium alloy manufacturing, QC and process control:

The current forging capability at Midhani for example is 6,000 tons, and I found ~ 10,000 tons in some other Indian forging companies but they may not be as closely involved with DMRL like Midhani is:

Hyderabad Unit – Mishra Dhatu Nigam Limited

midhani-india.in

For now w.r.t DMRL prioritized capital equipment acquisition, the priority seems to be getting good quality control on aero engine manufacture as it relates to forging (~ 3 years ago):

DRDO develops Critical Near Isothermal Forging Technology for aeroengines

Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has established the near isothermal forging tec

pib.gov.in

@Yasar et al.

 

[Sai]

The current forging capability at Midhani for example is 6,000 tons, and I found ~ 10,000 tons in some other Indian forging companies but they may not be as closely involved with DMRL like Midhani is:

Hyderabad Unit – Mishra Dhatu Nigam Limited

midhani-india.in

https://midhani-india.in/news_marquee/midhani-established-second-highest-isothermal-forging-press/
"MIDHANI established the world's second-highest isothermal press." I believe he is not talking about the 6,000-ton capacity. Right? Or they both for different applications? This was recent news from their own website (News & Events Section): June 2023. He didn't mention the capacity, though.

 

[Nilgiri]

https://midhani-india.in/news_marquee/midhani-established-second-highest-isothermal-forging-press/
"MIDHANI established the world's second-highest isothermal press." I believe he is not talking about the 6,000-ton capacity. Right? Or they both for different applications? This was recent news from their own website (News & Events Section): June 2023. He didn't mention the capacity, though.

The isothermal press is like 2000 ton I think. Different forge, for smaller parts and QC relevant to those (aero engine compressor discs etc)

DMRL and Midhani work very closely, like parent-child. So you have to treat them like one family.

 

[Windchime]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1748722640804614384

To be very honest with you, I've been seeing this "CCS soon" news for so long that I've got to wonder what's going on, really. It was supposed to be approved by mid-last year but here we are. Hope to see some news soon.

 

[Windchime]

I read a few days ago that a spokesperson for DRDO or ADA or HAL announced that AMCA would fly 4-7 years after CCS gave the go ahead. Given that almost everything concerning indigenous fighter programmes has been done many years late, my assumption is that date of CCS approval + 7 years is the more realistic date for first flight.

Assuming that an engine deal with SAFRAN is awaited before CCS approval is given (more likely 2025 than 2024 to me), my best guess for prototype first flight is 2032. Then 3 years' testing will be required, ending in 2035. It is only when the aircraft is accepted by IAF and ordered that steps to manufacture it will be taken - no non-state owned company is going to set up for production until it gets a contract to produce. 2 years sounds the minimum to me to set up production with production starting 2037 and first delivery to IAF taking place in 2040.

I would anticipate AMCA EIS with IAF around 2042 -18 years from now.

One hears that Pakistan expects to add a 5G Chinese fighter to its inventory soon. Does India not need to order F-35 or Su-57 or Su-75 or even KF-21?

GOI may not want to fund whatever SAFRAN will be asking for an engine deal, which would leave the AMCA programme where? Would it still be launched using GE F414 with no guarantee that the engine would be supplied if India fell out with the US and with US control over export customers?

Because India wants sovereignty over AMCA - no dependence on a foreign engine supplier. It would be better to know that can be achieved (ie a contract with SAFRAN giving India full sovereignty over the engine) before launching the AMCA programme. If a deal cannot be agreed with SAFRAN, either settle for AMCA Mk1 with GE F414 engines or delay and try to do an acceptable deal with RR before launching AMCA prototypes and testing. I think that a US OEM is not suitable.

The international relations India is facing is very much different compared to what India was faced with when they were developing Marut. There is a very slim chance of US denying supply of F414 unless India suddenly becomes new China and starts giving US a lot of headaches in the region. That could be the case in the future, but not soon.

Also, if India was under such pressure that it felt an urgent need to improve its airpower, they would've A: not botched the MMRCA program in the first place and B: fast-track MRFA ASAP. There's no need to speculate with F-35 (which is not for sale to India) , Felon and Checkmate (which is not even in service with Russia and has a history of its deal falling through with India in form of FGFA) or KF-21 (why on Earth would India suddenly opt for an unfinished project when they have MRFA running, would you tell me?). As long as MRFA proceeds with a snail's pace as it have been until now, it's safe to say that India is not in any way in hurry.

 

[Spitfire9]

The international relations India is facing is very much different compared to what India was faced with when they were developing Marut. There is a very slim chance of US denying supply of F414 unless India suddenly becomes new China and starts giving US a lot of headaches in the region. That could be the case in the future, but not soon.

Also, if India was under such pressure that it felt an urgent need to improve its airpower, they would've A: not botched the MMRCA program in the first place and B: fast-track MRFA ASAP. There's no need to speculate with F-35 (which is not for sale to India) , Felon and Checkmate (which is not even in service with Russia and has a history of its deal falling through with India in form of FGFA) or KF-21 (why on Earth would India suddenly opt for an unfinished project when they have MRFA running, would you tell me?). As long as MRFA proceeds with a snail's pace as it have been until now, it's safe to say that India is not in any way in hurry.

I think that you would do well to look at Indian news media and forums to get an idea of how much of a shambles Indian procurement is.

Why are many projects botched? see above.

A couple of examples using what you mentioned:

The Marut was designed to be a supersonic fighter to be powered by afterburning Bristol Siddeley Orpheus engines . When the British government cancelled the programme for which the afterburning version of the Orpheus was being developed, Bristol Siddeley offered to complete development of the engine for use in the Marut at a cost of £3 million. India did not take up the offer. The resulting Marut was so underpowered that it was subsonic and became relegated to the role of ground attack.

HAL HF-24 Marut - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The MMRCA competition where the Rafale was selected in 2012(?) came to nothing, reportedly since Dassault refused to be responsible for the quality of aircraft built by HAL in India. As a matter of urgency, 2 squadrons of Rafale (to be built in France) were ordered a couple of years later. IMO the MRFA competition was set up to address the failure of the MMRCA project. How is that going? 5 years in, it is at the RFP stage (or at least nearing it).

I could go on...

Is there a sense of urgency to get fighters delivered? I think so. The IAF estimates it needs 42 squadrons of fighters. With the retirement of the last Mig-21 squadron a few months ago, it has just about 30 now. I think it will increase by one a year as Tejas Mk1A are delivered.

I think that the 10 or so year delay in the Tejas Mk2 programme in addition to the delay in the MRFA programme may push India to scrap the MRFA programme, to order more Rafales from France as a matter of necessity and to set up a Rafale assembly line in India run by the company Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited.

 

[Sai]

I think that you would do well to look at Indian news media and forums to get an idea of how much of a shambles Indian procurement is.

Why are many projects botched? see above.

A couple of examples using what you mentioned:

The Marut was designed to be a supersonic fighter to be powered by afterburning Bristol Siddeley Orpheus engines . When the British government cancelled the programme for which the afterburning version of the Orpheus was being developed, Bristol Siddeley offered to complete development of the engine for use in the Marut at a cost of £3 million. India did not take up the offer. The resulting Marut was so underpowered that it was subsonic and became relegated to the role of ground attack.

HAL HF-24 Marut - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The MMRCA competition where the Rafale was selected in 2012(?) came to nothing, reportedly since Dassault refused to be responsible for the quality of aircraft built by HAL in India. As a matter of urgency, 2 squadrons of Rafale (to be built in France) were ordered a couple of years later. IMO the MRFA competition was set up to address the failure of the MMRCA project. How is that going? 5 years in, it is at the RFP stage (or at least nearing it).

I could go on...

Is there a sense of urgency to get fighters delivered? I think so. The IAF estimates it needs 42 squadrons of fighters. With the retirement of the last Mig-21 squadron a few months ago, it has just about 30 now. I think it will increase by one a year as Tejas Mk1A are delivered.

I think that the 10 or so year delay in the Tejas Mk2 programme in addition to the delay in the MRFA programme may push India to scrap the MRFA programme, to order more Rafales from France as a matter of necessity and to set up a Rafale assembly line in India run by the company Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited.

Union Minister Nitin Gadkari on Saturday. “French company Dassault will be manufacturing Rafale fighter jets here that you have witnessed taking off during the Republic Day parade in Delhi,” They are planning more Rafales in the medium term. Only after the Elections, we are likely to see it happen.