Azerbaijan Armenia Tensions

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1325925659403825154

Doesn’t hurt to share more confirmation of 100% control over Karabag

 

[bsruzm]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1325935605654708227

 

[bsruzm]

Armenia is going apesh*t tonight =)

 

[Skyfall]

It is a total surrender because the Armenians are stuck in NK with no route out. Roads are blocked so it's fight to death or surrender. So they chose to surrender in stages in exchange for evacuation. Allowing them to keep an Armenian populated area is just to have leverage to gain a corridor to Nakchivan. There is nothing to lose for Azeris because if the corridor to Nakchivan is revoked at any stage, the Lachin corridor will be closed very easily and Armenians in NK will be under siege (again).

So Azeris have the upper hand and Turks who were kept out of the negotiations are now a serious part or it. And where is the Minsk group?

 

[Skyfall]

Thanks to this guy.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1325936600140931073

Happy is the Azerbaijani Turks who liberated their occupied lands!
How happy is our dear nation, whose heart beats with his brothers!

 

[Bogeyman]

It is a total surrender because the Armenians are stuck in NK with no route out. Roads are blocked so it's fight to death or surrender. So they chose to surrender in stages in exchange for evacuation. Allowing them to keep an Armenian populated area is just to have leverage to gain a corridor to Nakchivan. There is nothing to lose for Azeris because if the corridor to Nakchivan is revoked at any stage, the Lachin corridor will be closed very easily and Armenians in NK will be under siege (again).

So Azeris have the upper hand and Turks who were kept out of the negotiations are now a serious part or it. And where is the Minsk group?

France and USA are completely excluded from talks

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1325952626400301056

 

[Skyfall]

Problem now is that Russians have already arrived in Goris. They could put themselves in a similar situation as in Syria and position themselves between forces. Then Armenia forces could just say that they have mutinied and not leave as agreed. Russians would stay in place and conflict is over with Armenians retaining the area that they are still occupying.

Telegram: Contact @rt_russian

t.me

 

[500]

Another map I found:

Overall there was a deal between Putin and Erdogan and they both made a strong pressure on Aliev. This deal is much much better than anything Azerbaijan could achieve without war, but after taking Shusha it is a large concession. Basically Azerbaijan gets a Russian enclave on its territory.

Good thing that based on this deal Armenia should provide a transportation between Azerbaijan mainland and Nakhichevan.

On Armenian forums 90% are very angry at Russia. They say that Russia did not help them in war and now forced to sign a capitulation. Now there are large riots in Yerevan so dont know how it will hold.

Currently it seems like Russian diplomatic victory, but in long term if everything works and Armenia will start developing economic ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey it may start the departure of Armenia from total dependency on Russia.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1325965733554233344

There is information that the Turkish Armed Forces will move towards Karabakh tomorrow. Official confirmation is pending.

 

[Skyfall]

Also areas that the Armenians retain should only be those that were traditionally Armenian majority populated areas with minimal surrounding areas. Vantage points should not be given. A little like how Israelis control West Bank.

 

[Deliorman]

Problem now is that Russians have already arrived in Goris. They could put themselves in a similar situation as in Syria and position themselves between forces. Then Armenia forces could just say that they have mutinied and not leave as agreed. Russians would stay in place and conflict is over with Armenians retaining the area that they are still occupying.

Telegram: Contact @rt_russian

t.me

This is exactly what I think will happen in the end. Russia can’t ever be trusted.

Now Pashinyan and his cabinet will be gone and on their places another 100% pro-Russian puppets will come to power. They will restart the attacks on Azerbaijan but this time will be under Russian “peacekeeping” umbrella.

Aliyev did a huge mistake.

 

[Nilgiri]

Apparently parliament speaker of Armenia (ararat mirzoyan) just got beaten up severely on the street after his car attacked by a mob (incl gunfire).

 

[Nilgiri]

This is exactly what I think will happen in the end. Russia can’t ever be trusted.

Now Pashinyan and his cabinet will be gone and on their places another 100% pro-Russian puppets will come to power. They will restart the attacks on Azerbaijan but this time will be under Russian “peacekeeping” umbrella.

Aliyev did a huge mistake.

I think so too, if AZ had shusha, that basically mean you get all of NK soon given lachin corridor is severed.

It would be matter of weeks, maybe days.

You are not invading Armenia proper, so there is no CSTO thing for Russia to get involved at all.

This deal still recognise some kind of special status for NK under Armenia effectively...with "Russian peacekeepers" guaranteeing it....baking it in for another 5 years at least.

That is 5 years for armenians (under new extremely all-in pro-russia dispensation however that looks like) to lick all wounds, learn lessons, and equip up in deficient areas exposed now....with however much russian collaboration/murkiness on top. That is plenty of time...and who knows what Russia will do in the interim to help prepare Armenia for it.

This just shows Aliev has too much underlying relationship with Russia. There was not even a complete permanent disavowing of conflict by Armenia in this deal.

It is also a deal, is it going to be a formal treaty (ratified by both legislatures etc)? Let us see.

 

[Skyfall]

I just left Turkey yesterday. Should have stayed for the party, instead I have to self-isolate for two weeks and then several weeks of lockdown

 

[Skyfall]

If the Russians are prepared to be human shields once again, the Azeris need to be prepared to hit them if the agreement isn't kept.

 

[Skyfall]

ConflictTR has updated his map. It's not complete yet it seems.

 

[guest_07]

Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim
& Good day to the rest

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1325969032143581186

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1325969038607069190

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1325969044730748928

 

[GoatsMilk]

This is exactly what I think will happen in the end. Russia can’t ever be trusted.

Now Pashinyan and his cabinet will be gone and on their places another 100% pro-Russian puppets will come to power. They will restart the attacks on Azerbaijan but this time will be under Russian “peacekeeping” umbrella.

Aliyev did a huge mistake.

Lets presume the Armenians restarted the war, those russian troops if they aid it will be attacked. I think Turkey is strong enough these days regionally to deal with the russian threat. Its not the same as in soviet days.

 

[Gary]

I'll miss him