TR Economy & Updates

[Heartbang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1680535554763440130

UK wants to send illegal immigrants to Turkey, likely going to try bribe Erdogan with money given the struggling economy

Take the money, yeet'em to Greece. EZ!

 

[TheInsider]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1680535554763440130

UK wants to send illegal immigrants to Turkey, likely going to try bribe Erdogan with money given the struggling economy

We are literally selling ourselves for a few bucks that is so shameful. This is treason.

 

[Crush716]

We are literally selling ourselves for a few bucks that is so shameful. This is treason.

Any country with money can pimp us around like a prostitute. Shameful but faiz is Haram bro. Just when you think you can’t get any lower this incompetent government finds a way.. not surprised. How does everyone find new Turkiye so far?

 

[TheInsider]

Erdoğan's statement before the Gulf visit: "We know very well what to sell and what not to sell"

"The visit has an investment and financial dimension. We have high hopes for both of them. There are investments there, of course, there are investments in our country. Turkiye will hopefully have a serious investment opportunity in these three countries in the defense industry, infrastructure, and superstructure investments. In addition, these countries will also have the opportunity to purchase certain assets from Turkiye. But, as some jugglers say, they are selling BOTAŞ, this is happening, that is happening, there is no such thing. We know very well what to sell and what not to sell."

Fasten your belts and brace for impact. Let's see what Erdo is going to sell.

 

[Rodeo]

The United Arab Emirates and Turkey signed agreements worth $50.7 billion.(Reuters)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1681699478682599429

 

[dBSPL]

The United Arab Emirates and Turkey signed agreements worth $50.7 billion.(Reuters)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1681699478682599429

Reis has raised close to 100 billion dollars from Gulf countries, no details yet. But yesterday, a big operation was carried out with a fake movement in the stock market.

At the moment, the statement as the total amount came only from the UAE authorities and it was stated that a 50.7 billion dollar agreement was signed between TR and the UAE. One of the important anetode is that, CB interest rate decision will be announced tomorrow. The fact that this news comes just before the CB decisions may also be intended to soften a sharp reaction.

 

[Rodeo]

Reis has raised close to 100 billion dollars from Gulf countries, no details yet. But yesterday, a big operation was carried out with a fake movement in the stock market.

I hope this money is in form of cheap loans and not mass assets buying. It's huge success, If it's the former (assuming rational and efficient spending)

 

[dBSPL]

I hope this money is in form of cheap loans and not mass assets buying. If it's the former, it's huge success(assuming rational and efficient spending)

Directorate of Communications statement: Turkiye and the United Arab Emirates have signed and ratified 13 documents in various fields. The total value of the agreements is 50.7 billion dollars. It was decided to deepen the existing cooperation in areas such as energy, transportation, infrastructure, logistics, e-commerce, finance, health, food, tourism, real estate, construction, defense industry, artificial intelligence and advanced technologies.

*

There will certainly be a significant inflow of hot money into critical sectors. In other words, it seems that there will be a more technology-intensive resource inflow, with defense and aviation playing a critical role, rather than the traditional structure with a focus on real estate, automotive, energy, retail and service-related sectors etc..

 

[Bozan]

Directorate of Communications statement: Turkiye and the United Arab Emirates have signed and ratified 13 documents in various fields. The total value of the agreements is 50.7 billion dollars. It was decided to deepen the existing cooperation in areas such as energy, transportation, infrastructure, logistics, e-commerce, finance, health, food, tourism, real estate, construction, defense industry, artificial intelligence and advanced technologies.

*

There will certainly be a significant inflow of hot money into critical sectors. In other words, it seems that there will be a more technology-intensive resource inflow, with defense and aviation playing a critical role, rather than the traditional structure with a focus on real estate, automotive, energy, retail and service-related sectors etc..

There is a reason the UAE just gave Erdogan their highest award.

 

[TheInsider]

There is certainly a sale of Turkish assets involved in the deal as Erdogan said. We will learn more about what we sold in the following days. Nobody hands out 50 billion for free. Currently, we only know about Izmir Port.

 

[Lool]

There is certainly a sale of Turkish assets involved in the deal as Erdogan said. We will learn more about what we sold in the following days. Nobody hands out 50 billion for free. Currently, we only know about Izmir Port.

He did previousoy say that he knows what he can sell and what he shouldnt sell so I hope that the damage will be minimal and hopefully not involve izmir port since I dont know how izmor port isnt included in the "he shouldnt sell" list

 

[Bozan]

These are memorandums/MOU, so not full commitments. They are likely to align with Saudi and UAE strategy. But Botas and Izmir port are not worth that much.

I would imagine either technology or agricultural farmland purchases for food security. Maybe this entire thing is theater for Erdogan.

Maybe the Turkish armed forces haha

 

[fushkee]

Is there any thing left to sell which is worth 50 billion$???

 

[Rooxbar]

All of this pain for an experiment that every economist in the world knew was destined to fail. Playing with people's lives because you cannot distinguish between expertise and charlatanism among your councilors.

 

[Yasar_TR]

The United Arab Emirates and Turkey signed agreements worth $50.7 billion.(Reuters)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1681699478682599429

Great news! Much needed movement in business. But it is important to know the details of the agreement.
This is most likely not hard cash injection in to economy. But a series of business transactions over a given time that will benefit number of areas, be it industrial or economic or even individual.
Nevertheless it is bound to bring some form of mid term ease on balance of payments.

 

[Afif]

So, it seems Türkiye has around $ 90 billions trade deficit this year if wiki numbers were to be believed.

So, Türkiye earns around $ 45-50 billions in tourism and then There is around $12-15 billions of FDI.

How then remaining $ 20-25 billions deficit is compensated? From service sector? Or do they have to pay from foreign reserve?


Edit- my knowledge in economics is less than basic. So, i maybe getting this totally wrong.

 

[Huelague]

So, it seems Türkiye has around $ 90 billions trade deficit this year if wiki numbers were to be believed.

So, Türkiye earns around $ 45-50 billions in tourism and then There is around $12-15 billions of FDI.

How then remaining $ 20-25 billions deficit is compensated? From service sector? Or do they have to pay from foreign reserve?


Edit- my knowledge in economics is less than basic. So, i maybe getting this totally wrong.

You have to add gold imports too.

 

[UkroTurk]

Those - that were signed -aren't contracts , these are memorandums which don't oblige any side.

 

[B_A]

I hope this money is in form of cheap loans and not mass assets buying. It's huge success, If it's the former (assuming rational and efficient spending)

Actually as a country with miltary power,even they buy the asset that is not a problem,we can force these assets stay in our country.

The capitulations of the Ottoman Empire werent problems when we were the superpower,Only became problem after we defeat at battlefield.

Japanese buy US asset didnt big problem because the US had the stronger miltary then Japanese.

 

[Nilgiri]

So, it seems Türkiye has around $ 90 billions trade deficit this year if wiki numbers were to be believed.

So, Türkiye earns around $ 45-50 billions in tourism and then There is around $12-15 billions of FDI.

How then remaining $ 20-25 billions deficit is compensated? From service sector? Or do they have to pay from foreign reserve?


Edit- my knowledge in economics is less than basic. So, i maybe getting this totally wrong.

Assuming current account deficit is ~10% of GDP for 2023 (about same as 2022), we can determine some rough numbers:

(Can use google translate)

TÜİK Kurumsal

data.tuik.gov.tr

The current ("short term") account includes all net flow of goods, services (incl tourism) and incomes (incl remittances, ownership dividends etc) with rest of the world.

Intuitive to understand positive direction is foreigner(s) buying or paying for Turkish things (goods, services, labour wages, rents etc) in the "now".

Current and capital account sum to zero (in the oldest conventional definition I learned in IB Economics long time ago now)

Similar to say how kinetic energy and potential energy sum to zero in say a gravity field.

i.e Current account is the kinetic material actualisation of international transactions and the capital account is the potential (essentially ownership and stock in the capacity side) side of it.

Chicken and the egg situation as to which drives/causes the other (they are both essentially a loop that exist together as duality)

So about +100 billion will show up on the capital account side if the current account is - 100 billion.

The components on capital ("long term") account side include:

(+ direction is always foreigner(s) owning more Turkish long term capacity)

A) Investment :

FDI (equity investment), FPI (portfolio investment).... assuming about 13 billion each (2022 figures from world bank) is 26 billion in total.

Fair enough assumption as its unlikely there is any huge structural change this year in World:Turkiye investment climate and contours.


B) Loans (+ amount is change in dollar owed from TR to world) - TBD (to be determined)


C) Reserve change (+ amount is change in forex from TR to world) - TBD

i.e the TBDs for 2023 will add to about 74 billion.

So getting about 74 billion in loans (in the one year) would keep reserve change as zero....i.e maintain level at 80 billion USD (at start of 2023). Figure not incl. gold (about 40 billion USD total I think), but that can be ignored for now as little changes occurring to gold reserve and it is low liquidity as its really a last resort reserve for forex conversion purpose....it is used more as backing collateral.

Getting more loans than this over 2023 would increase the forex past that starting level (registering as a negative in the summation, since foreigners would own less Turkish long term capacity w.r.t forex situation)

Getting less means the forex level ends lower than 80 billion at end of year (the change registering as positive for the reverse situation).

Right now there has been a drop of 10 billion to 70 billion as of July start.

So we can assume of the half year completed so far, that there is ~ 37 billion in the 2 TBD summation so far.

i.e about 27 billion in loans have been taken by Turkiye in international currencies (namely USD and maybe some Euro) so far in the year and a 10 billion drop in forex has occured so far.

The assumed current account deficit can be increased or decreased to get figures to vary within a bound. Gold can be considered more liquid to bring it into the calculation similarily. Increasing/decreasing FDI and FPI (from 2022 results) can also be done for wiggle room analysis and impact on loans needed etc.

i.e The actual numbers (and the TBDs) of course will have some +/- to them as we made assumptions based on 2022 repeating just for reference sake.

Some team in TR central bank likely already done a more detailed analysis (with the broader, deeper, more real time resolution+sensitivity data they have access to) and the confidence intervals involved to give a priority assessment to executive branch policy w.r.t foreign overture diplomacy being done now.

Turkey Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves

Foreign Exchange Reserves in Turkey increased to 70193 USD Million in April 5 from 68748 USD Million in the previous week. This page provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term...

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Turkey Current Account

Turkey recorded a Current Account deficit of 3265 USD Million in February of 2024. This page provides - Turkey Current Account - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com