TR Economy & Updates

[Nilgiri]

Regd the UAE deal, its important to also realise the 50 billion wont be a "this year" impact rather something more long term and speculative (as to final materialisation etc past MOU commitment currently)

What will show up impact wise this year and next with more certainty are essentially things that would file under loans in capital account like:

8.5 billion Earthquake relief bond
3 billion Export credit bond
etc.

Sources:

UAE and Turkey sign multibillion-dollar agreements

Erdoğan seeks support for economy with trade and business deals and backing for earthquake reconstruction

www.ft.com

Turkey's Erdogan signs $50 billion in deals during UAE visit

The United Arab Emirates and Turkey inked on Wednesday several deals estimated to be worth $50.7 billion during a visit by President Tayyip Erdogan to Abu Dhabi as he toured wealthy Gulf Arab nations for investment and funds.

www.reuters.com

BTW, 74 billion is pretty much smack bang in middle of range I put earlier of 50 - 100 billion:

Called it earlier:

 

[Nilgiri]

Actually as a country with miltary power,even they buy the asset that is not a problem,we can force these assets stay in our country.

The capitulations of the Ottoman Empire werent problems when we were the superpower,Only became problem after we defeat at battlefield.

Japanese buy US asset didnt big problem because the US had the stronger miltary then Japanese.

Any large state of default Turkiye declares will ruin its economic situation well before any argument of war can be used w.r.t "Come and get it" like could be done in more heavy reductive mercantile (low free market integration and trust, low technology and services, raw resource dominant trade based) environment of first half of 20th century.

Turkiye is regular mainstream participator in world trade and finance system of post WW2 era where trade moved away from mercantile + resource input based stuff as manufacturing supply chains and services really expanded in world trade (and has paid into it and others have paid into Turkiye over long period of time to set up exchange and trust norms)....so it has to balance its approach always with that in mind (like the 99% of other countries in the world)..... well before exceptions like say a relative non-participant like Iran or near total non-participant like North Korea are able to (at the costs they pay).

 

[B_A]

Any large state of default Turkiye declares will ruin its economic situation well before any argument of war can be used w.r.t "Come and get it" like could be done in more heavy reductive mercantile (low free market integration and trust, low technology and services, raw resource dominant trade based) environment of first half of 20th century.

Turkiye is regular mainstream participator in world trade and finance system of post WW2 era where trade moved away from mercantile + resource input based stuff as manufacturing supply chains and services really expanded in world trade (and has paid into it and others have paid into Turkiye over long period of time to set up exchange and trust norms)....so it has to balance its approach always with that in mind (like the 99% of other countries in the world)..... well before exceptions like say a relative non-participant like Iran or near total non-participant like North Korea are able to (at the costs they pay).

Of course that is a very bad situation we should avoid sell asset as possible.

I just want to say even we didn’t like arab oil countries,sell assets to them is actually better than sell to western countries or Chinese or any other rising country

Because these Arab countries lacked the land or workforces to move our technology or factories to their land or use them against us.They can only remain the assets in our land and earning profits from those

 

[TheInsider]

Erdoğan looks really depressed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1682468902679224323

 

[Huelague]

TotalEnergies partners with Turkey's Ronesans in energy venture

France's TotalEnergies partnered with Turkish conglomerate Ronesans Holding to expand renewable power generation capacity in Turkey, Ronesans President Erman Ilicak said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

Despite disputes between Erdogan and Macron.

 

[Anastasius]

Erdoğan looks really depressed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1682468902679224323

His expression never changes so how can you tell?

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1684228028618899458

wow, the interest on the currency protected accounts means you make more money the richer you are, far more than the hike in prices and the money comes from the state treasury. Feels like it's just a take from the poor situation.

 

[TheInsider]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1684228028618899458

wow, the interest on the currency protected accounts means you make more money the richer you are, far more than the hike in prices and the money comes from the state treasury. Feels like it's just a take from the poor situation.

It exactly is.


BTW CB increased the forecasted inflation by this year's end to %58 and no single-digit inflation is in sight. IMHO I don't think we can achieve single-digit inflation before 2026. As I said before I doubt there will be a significant improvement in the short to medium term.

 

[Saithan]

Turkey being on the greylist also means turks abroad can’t bring cash with them to Turkey, well at least not DKK. Banks in Turkey don’t accept them due to Turkey not asking or investigating where money is coming from. Even if those money are legit notes from DK CB.

how many times did RTE tell people to come deposit their money in the bank no questions asked. He screwed over everything well. If Simsek can get us out of the grey list perhaps it’ll become slightly easier, but whitewashing has become headlight, so doubt it’s going to be easy to move cash back into the system.

 

[Lool]

I dont see how simsek can save the economy tbh

 

[Heartbang]

I dont see how simsek can save the economy tbh

Him "saving" the economy is to pay the imperialist toll enacted upon us on a semi-regular basis. I just hope this will be our last.

Turkiye needs to enact those structural reforms in the short term, in order to weatherproof her economy. And then we must establish an "economic warfare infrastructure" to turn the tide and slap some fools!

 

[Bozan]

Can he fix it

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1684318012747272192

 

[B_A]

I wonder why we have so large trade deficit.
Any industrialized developing countries such as tayland or Vietnam or Malaysia didnt had trade deficit like it.

 

[Heartbang]

I wonder why we have so large trade deficit.
Any industrialized developing countries such as tayland or Vietnam or Malaysia didnt had trade deficit like it.

No hydrocarbons. It would be easier if we had hydrocarbons.

That's why we gotta have (East-Med) hydrocarbons.

 

[Shtr]

It exactly is.


BTW CB increased the forecasted inflation by this year's end to %58 and no single-digit inflation is in sight. IMHO I don't think we can achieve single-digit inflation before 2026. As I said before I doubt there will be a significant improvement in the short to medium term.

This calculation in the articale is completely wrong.

The true calculation is that Vatandaş will receive not both. He will take only one. Interest or Fixed dollar value. Not both.

 

[I_Love_F16]

No hydrocarbons. It would be easier if we had hydrocarbons.

That's why we gotta have (East-Med) hydrocarbons.

Many countries that have better economy than Turkiye doesn't have hydrocarbons either. Like some members posted above, Turkiye need to produce more value added products, especially high tech goods. Limit your imports and prioritize local production as much as possible instead.

 

[Agha Sher]

I wonder why we have so large trade deficit.
Any industrialized developing countries such as tayland or Vietnam or Malaysia didnt had trade deficit like it.

Turkiye had for far too long a strong currency. This made imports cheap and exports expensive. There was no incentive to produce goods in Turkiye and the Turkish people enjoyed materialistic imports beyond their true wealth.

Turkiye is currently going through a hard reset to end the chronic trade deficit

 

[Heartbang]

Many countries that have better economy than Turkiye doesn't have hydrocarbons either. Like some members posted above, Turkiye need to produce more value added products, especially high tech goods. Limit your imports and prioritize local production as much as possible instead.

To reliably develop your industrial base to achieve that, you gotta have hydrocarbons. Which those countries had in spades thanks to this hack they implemented called "imperialism"

 

[No Name]

I wonder why we have so large trade deficit.
Any industrialized developing countries such as tayland or Vietnam or Malaysia didnt had trade deficit like it.

There are several reasons for that:

The first reason is all of those countries have oil and gas reserves Thailand produced 11.6 million metric tons of oil in 2022, Vietnam produced 10.84 million tonnes in 2022, and finally Malaysia produced two million tons of oil. Turkey only produced 3 million tons of oil and used 30 million tons last year, this means that Turkey going to continue to suffer from a trade deficit unless it changes its energy strategy.

Turkey needs to follow the example of states like France, South Korea, and Japan and start to invest heavily in nuclear power. The three countries mentioned do not have any oil reverse of their own but have been able to overcome that disadvantage by investing in nuclear power in order to keep money in the country. Turkey has not only failed to build its nuclear power plant, which was something that Turkey should have done back in the 1980s, but Turkey has screwed up its current nuclear program.

The objective of Nuclear power plants is to achieve energy independence, but Turkey has stupidly set up its nuclear power plant program in a manner that makes it trapped in a system that requires it to keep paying money to a foreign company.

Turkey's decision to be the only country in the world that uses the build–own–operate nuclear power plant model means that the nuclear power plant is owned by a Rosatom subsidiary. the fact that the plant is owned by a subsidiary of a Russian company means that money is transferred outside of Turkey back to Russia; thus continuing the trade deficit for many years to come.

The second reason behind the trade deficit is the Turkish people's habit of seeing gold as an investment winning out over better investment choices that would actually help the economy by putting worth into it.

The preference of Turks to invest in gold creates an environment that increases the trade deficit without adding any value to the Turkish economy. Gold is only valuable because people put a value on it without that sense of value you quickly realize it is a useless metal. Gold doesn't generate any worth to the economy unless you do it, yet many Turks prefer investing in gold over stocks of companies that generate profit and add value.


the Third reason is that Turkish companies proffer to be part of a supply chain for bigger brands rather than rock the boat by making their own brand. The problem with this system is that it creates two big problems the first is that the foreign brands will get most of the profit while the Turkish companies will get the scraps. The second problem is that as soon as wages go up or a new cheaper labour force opens up those brands will which their supply chains to those newer, cheaper labour markets. This happened to Turkey in the mid to late 90s with China slowly eating away at Turkey's share of the low-mid technology market.

The refusal of Turkish companies to establish brands and risk-averse behaviour in entering the high-tech market has led the government to keep adopting policies that favour these cheap labour low to mid-tech companies at the expense of everyone else that lives in Turkey.

 

[TheInsider]

Here is the good news CDS is decreasing and now it is under the 400 threshold. We will live with inflation but at least we won't default.