TR Economy & Updates

[Lool]

There is certainly a sale of Turkish assets involved in the deal as Erdogan said. We will learn more about what we sold in the following days. Nobody hands out 50 billion for free. Currently, we only know about Izmir Port.

He did previousoy say that he knows what he can sell and what he shouldnt sell so I hope that the damage will be minimal and hopefully not involve izmir port since I dont know how izmor port isnt included in the "he shouldnt sell" list

 

[Bozan]

These are memorandums/MOU, so not full commitments. They are likely to align with Saudi and UAE strategy. But Botas and Izmir port are not worth that much.

I would imagine either technology or agricultural farmland purchases for food security. Maybe this entire thing is theater for Erdogan.

Maybe the Turkish armed forces haha

 

[fushkee]

Is there any thing left to sell which is worth 50 billion$???

 

[Rooxbar]

All of this pain for an experiment that every economist in the world knew was destined to fail. Playing with people's lives because you cannot distinguish between expertise and charlatanism among your councilors.

 

[Yasar_TR]

The United Arab Emirates and Turkey signed agreements worth $50.7 billion.(Reuters)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1681699478682599429

Great news! Much needed movement in business. But it is important to know the details of the agreement.
This is most likely not hard cash injection in to economy. But a series of business transactions over a given time that will benefit number of areas, be it industrial or economic or even individual.
Nevertheless it is bound to bring some form of mid term ease on balance of payments.

 

[Afif]

So, it seems Türkiye has around $ 90 billions trade deficit this year if wiki numbers were to be believed.

So, Türkiye earns around $ 45-50 billions in tourism and then There is around $12-15 billions of FDI.

How then remaining $ 20-25 billions deficit is compensated? From service sector? Or do they have to pay from foreign reserve?


Edit- my knowledge in economics is less than basic. So, i maybe getting this totally wrong.

 

[Huelague]

So, it seems Türkiye has around $ 90 billions trade deficit this year if wiki numbers were to be believed.

So, Türkiye earns around $ 45-50 billions in tourism and then There is around $12-15 billions of FDI.

How then remaining $ 20-25 billions deficit is compensated? From service sector? Or do they have to pay from foreign reserve?


Edit- my knowledge in economics is less than basic. So, i maybe getting this totally wrong.

You have to add gold imports too.

 

[UkroTurk]

Those - that were signed -aren't contracts , these are memorandums which don't oblige any side.

 

[B_A]

I hope this money is in form of cheap loans and not mass assets buying. It's huge success, If it's the former (assuming rational and efficient spending)

Actually as a country with miltary power,even they buy the asset that is not a problem,we can force these assets stay in our country.

The capitulations of the Ottoman Empire werent problems when we were the superpower,Only became problem after we defeat at battlefield.

Japanese buy US asset didnt big problem because the US had the stronger miltary then Japanese.

 

[Nilgiri]

So, it seems Türkiye has around $ 90 billions trade deficit this year if wiki numbers were to be believed.

So, Türkiye earns around $ 45-50 billions in tourism and then There is around $12-15 billions of FDI.

How then remaining $ 20-25 billions deficit is compensated? From service sector? Or do they have to pay from foreign reserve?


Edit- my knowledge in economics is less than basic. So, i maybe getting this totally wrong.

Assuming current account deficit is ~10% of GDP for 2023 (about same as 2022), we can determine some rough numbers:

(Can use google translate)

TÜİK Kurumsal

data.tuik.gov.tr

The current ("short term") account includes all net flow of goods, services (incl tourism) and incomes (incl remittances, ownership dividends etc) with rest of the world.

Intuitive to understand positive direction is foreigner(s) buying or paying for Turkish things (goods, services, labour wages, rents etc) in the "now".

Current and capital account sum to zero (in the oldest conventional definition I learned in IB Economics long time ago now)

Similar to say how kinetic energy and potential energy sum to zero in say a gravity field.

i.e Current account is the kinetic material actualisation of international transactions and the capital account is the potential (essentially ownership and stock in the capacity side) side of it.

Chicken and the egg situation as to which drives/causes the other (they are both essentially a loop that exist together as duality)

So about +100 billion will show up on the capital account side if the current account is - 100 billion.

The components on capital ("long term") account side include:

(+ direction is always foreigner(s) owning more Turkish long term capacity)

A) Investment :

FDI (equity investment), FPI (portfolio investment).... assuming about 13 billion each (2022 figures from world bank) is 26 billion in total.

Fair enough assumption as its unlikely there is any huge structural change this year in World:Turkiye investment climate and contours.


B) Loans (+ amount is change in dollar owed from TR to world) - TBD (to be determined)


C) Reserve change (+ amount is change in forex from TR to world) - TBD

i.e the TBDs for 2023 will add to about 74 billion.

So getting about 74 billion in loans (in the one year) would keep reserve change as zero....i.e maintain level at 80 billion USD (at start of 2023). Figure not incl. gold (about 40 billion USD total I think), but that can be ignored for now as little changes occurring to gold reserve and it is low liquidity as its really a last resort reserve for forex conversion purpose....it is used more as backing collateral.

Getting more loans than this over 2023 would increase the forex past that starting level (registering as a negative in the summation, since foreigners would own less Turkish long term capacity w.r.t forex situation)

Getting less means the forex level ends lower than 80 billion at end of year (the change registering as positive for the reverse situation).

Right now there has been a drop of 10 billion to 70 billion as of July start.

So we can assume of the half year completed so far, that there is ~ 37 billion in the 2 TBD summation so far.

i.e about 27 billion in loans have been taken by Turkiye in international currencies (namely USD and maybe some Euro) so far in the year and a 10 billion drop in forex has occured so far.

The assumed current account deficit can be increased or decreased to get figures to vary within a bound. Gold can be considered more liquid to bring it into the calculation similarily. Increasing/decreasing FDI and FPI (from 2022 results) can also be done for wiggle room analysis and impact on loans needed etc.

i.e The actual numbers (and the TBDs) of course will have some +/- to them as we made assumptions based on 2022 repeating just for reference sake.

Some team in TR central bank likely already done a more detailed analysis (with the broader, deeper, more real time resolution+sensitivity data they have access to) and the confidence intervals involved to give a priority assessment to executive branch policy w.r.t foreign overture diplomacy being done now.

Turkey Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves

Foreign Exchange Reserves in Turkey increased to 87030 USD Million in October 3 from 86700 USD Million in the previous week. This page provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term...

tradingeconomics.com

Turkey Current Account

Turkey recorded a Current Account surplus of 5455 USD Million in August of 2025. This page provides - Turkey Current Account - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[Nilgiri]

Regd the UAE deal, its important to also realise the 50 billion wont be a "this year" impact rather something more long term and speculative (as to final materialisation etc past MOU commitment currently)

What will show up impact wise this year and next with more certainty are essentially things that would file under loans in capital account like:

8.5 billion Earthquake relief bond
3 billion Export credit bond
etc.

Sources:

UAE and Turkey sign multibillion-dollar agreements

Erdoğan seeks support for economy with trade and business deals and backing for earthquake reconstruction

www.ft.com

Turkey's Erdogan signs $50 billion in deals during UAE visit

The United Arab Emirates and Turkey inked on Wednesday several deals estimated to be worth $50.7 billion during a visit by President Tayyip Erdogan to Abu Dhabi as he toured wealthy Gulf Arab nations for investment and funds.

www.reuters.com

BTW, 74 billion is pretty much smack bang in middle of range I put earlier of 50 - 100 billion:

Called it earlier:

 

[Nilgiri]

Actually as a country with miltary power,even they buy the asset that is not a problem,we can force these assets stay in our country.

The capitulations of the Ottoman Empire werent problems when we were the superpower,Only became problem after we defeat at battlefield.

Japanese buy US asset didnt big problem because the US had the stronger miltary then Japanese.

Any large state of default Turkiye declares will ruin its economic situation well before any argument of war can be used w.r.t "Come and get it" like could be done in more heavy reductive mercantile (low free market integration and trust, low technology and services, raw resource dominant trade based) environment of first half of 20th century.

Turkiye is regular mainstream participator in world trade and finance system of post WW2 era where trade moved away from mercantile + resource input based stuff as manufacturing supply chains and services really expanded in world trade (and has paid into it and others have paid into Turkiye over long period of time to set up exchange and trust norms)....so it has to balance its approach always with that in mind (like the 99% of other countries in the world)..... well before exceptions like say a relative non-participant like Iran or near total non-participant like North Korea are able to (at the costs they pay).

 

[B_A]

Any large state of default Turkiye declares will ruin its economic situation well before any argument of war can be used w.r.t "Come and get it" like could be done in more heavy reductive mercantile (low free market integration and trust, low technology and services, raw resource dominant trade based) environment of first half of 20th century.

Turkiye is regular mainstream participator in world trade and finance system of post WW2 era where trade moved away from mercantile + resource input based stuff as manufacturing supply chains and services really expanded in world trade (and has paid into it and others have paid into Turkiye over long period of time to set up exchange and trust norms)....so it has to balance its approach always with that in mind (like the 99% of other countries in the world)..... well before exceptions like say a relative non-participant like Iran or near total non-participant like North Korea are able to (at the costs they pay).

Of course that is a very bad situation we should avoid sell asset as possible.

I just want to say even we didn’t like arab oil countries,sell assets to them is actually better than sell to western countries or Chinese or any other rising country

Because these Arab countries lacked the land or workforces to move our technology or factories to their land or use them against us.They can only remain the assets in our land and earning profits from those

 

[TheInsider]

Erdoğan looks really depressed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1682468902679224323

 

[Huelague]

TotalEnergies partners with Turkey's Ronesans in energy venture

France's TotalEnergies partnered with Turkish conglomerate Ronesans Holding to expand renewable power generation capacity in Turkey, Ronesans President Erman Ilicak said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

Despite disputes between Erdogan and Macron.

 

[Anastasius]

Erdoğan looks really depressed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1682468902679224323

His expression never changes so how can you tell?

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1684228028618899458

wow, the interest on the currency protected accounts means you make more money the richer you are, far more than the hike in prices and the money comes from the state treasury. Feels like it's just a take from the poor situation.

 

[TheInsider]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1684228028618899458

wow, the interest on the currency protected accounts means you make more money the richer you are, far more than the hike in prices and the money comes from the state treasury. Feels like it's just a take from the poor situation.

It exactly is.


BTW CB increased the forecasted inflation by this year's end to %58 and no single-digit inflation is in sight. IMHO I don't think we can achieve single-digit inflation before 2026. As I said before I doubt there will be a significant improvement in the short to medium term.

 

[Saithan]

Turkey being on the greylist also means turks abroad can’t bring cash with them to Turkey, well at least not DKK. Banks in Turkey don’t accept them due to Turkey not asking or investigating where money is coming from. Even if those money are legit notes from DK CB.

how many times did RTE tell people to come deposit their money in the bank no questions asked. He screwed over everything well. If Simsek can get us out of the grey list perhaps it’ll become slightly easier, but whitewashing has become headlight, so doubt it’s going to be easy to move cash back into the system.

 

[Lool]

I dont see how simsek can save the economy tbh