TR Economy & Updates

[Nilgiri]

I can post the quarterly data so far if people are interested to discuss/analyse that too.

 

[what]

Turkish Trade in the Last 4 Years.

View attachment 21838

> I have looked up the recent Trade deficit values for the Month of April and apparently its getting better. But the pace is interesting.

Just some context here:

Exports have got cheaper and imports expensive with the fall of Lira. Also, the pandemic has led to fewer imports of oil and gas and even before that the oil and gas prices were on record lows for the months prior.

 

[Lool]

Just some context here:

Exports have got cheaper and imports expensive with the fall of Lira. Also, the pandemic has led to fewer imports of oil and gas and even before that the oil and gas prices were on record lows for the months prior.

IMO, the turkish government should try and keep the lira at around 6.7, as this will ensure that their products are competitive while reducing both imports cost as well as the difficulty in paying foreign debts. Then they should impose a law that motivates firms to take future loans from turkish banks and not from abroad

 

[mulj]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1398345765081079808

Is this sign of furhter detoriation of relations or just transaction justified by market conditions?

 

[Deliorman]

IMO, the turkish government should try and keep the lira at around 6.7, as this will ensure that their products are competitive while reducing both imports cost as well as the difficulty in paying foreign debts. Then they should impose a law that motivates firms to take future loans from turkish banks and not from abroad

Well, 99,9% of Turkish companies get loans from Turkish banks and not from abroad... yet much of the loans they get are in Euros or Dollars and that has been the case for years. These same Turkish banks borrow money from abroad to operate too- again in Euros and Dollars and not in Turkish liras.

Turkey is a highly dollarized economy where many of the people prefer to keep their savings in dollars or gold under the pillow instead of deposits in banks where they can be gone in any moment- we all know what Turkey’s past a presents is and how easy it is to wake up one morning and your investments to just be gone.

Many companies don’t use Turkish liras even for their operations INSIDE the country let alone if they have a business abroad. Nobody trusts the local currency... because nobody has a trust in Turkey. What are the reasons for that... we are discussing them ever day- no rule of law in the country, bad economic policies, no trust left in the Government’a ability to lead the country.

 

[Stuka]

Not sure where the underlying numbers are from, here they are according to IMF database:

View attachment 21839

i.e there was a good improvement in 2019 in all (red box highlight) trade balance (goods only and goods + services combined) and also current account (first row at top) from years prior.

Goods + services balance even turned positive to about 19 billion USD and current account turned surplus (6.7 billion USD) for first time in very long time (the table only goes to 2005, and it was always deficit in this timeframe).

2020 however, things went back to lot of negative territory again in these areas.

We shall wait for 2021 full results later I guess.

My Data was mostly from Anadolu Ajansi and Reports of ISBank.

> I Like that Data which you have provided and seems to me that Turkey was on good path and the Damage which Corona has caused is heavy.

> It is a shame that shortly after a positive year like 2019 a pandemic ruined it all. But I believe that 2021 is still too early for Recovery.

> In the Future it will be difficult to Limit Imports of Goods like Petroleum.
Thus I believe Turkey needs to Invest more in Technology and remain a Target Destination for Tourists to generate a nice Flow of Cash, but of course Corona Damaged that.

> A more Foreseeable Governmental Approach to Foreign Policy should achieve Both I believe. ( Tourists and Corporations)
Come to think of they are actually trying to do both at any cost.

Tourism : https://www.euronews.com/travel/202...-calls-to-resign-over-widely-criticised-video

Foreign Corps. : https://www.dailysabah.com/business...op-us-execs-to-talk-investment-highlight-ties

 

[Ravenman]

We are loosing to much money because of 2 things:

- Old pensionado's
- GMO fruit & vegetables

Those 2 are the cancers of our economy.

We have millions of old pensionado's. They dont spend money, they dont pay taxes, they dont buy a car or house, they dont pay rent (because they live with their sons and daugter in law) and they are depleting the Healthcare because for them Healthcare is free. In a Turkish hospital you see only old people farting and shitting in their pants and they are visiting the doctor because of a headache or painfarting. And they DON'T DIE. Every month they get paid out from the state budget and they dont spend a penny. Maybe they will die soon with because the government vaccinated them all with Sinovac, but you never know.

- I m from a farmers family and Turkey is crowded with GMO vegetables and fruit. We must buy YEARLY seeds, because you cant use the seeds from your grown vegetables for the next year. It's sterilized and fruit cant grow further from another fruit. Normally if you eat a watermelon or a apple, you can just trow away the seed and if the ground is fruitful, with a little bit water and sun there will grow a plant. But not in Turkey's case. The most seeds Turkey is buying for their farmers are Geneticly Modified from the US, Netherlands and Israel. Turkey pays billions of dollars. The most stupid thing a government can do, is buying yearly GMO seeds for billions of dollars.

 

[Nilgiri]

My Data was mostly from Anadolu Ajansi and Reports of ISBank.

> I Like that Data which you have provided and seems to me that Turkey was on good path and the Damage which Corona has caused is heavy.

> It is a shame that shortly after a positive year like 2019 a pandemic ruined it all. But I believe that 2021 is still too early for Recovery.

View attachment 21888

> In the Future it will be difficult to Limit Imports of Goods like Petroleum.
Thus I believe Turkey needs to Invest more in Technology and remain a Target Destination for Tourists to generate a nice Flow of Cash, but of course Corona Damaged that.

> A more Foreseeable Governmental Approach to Foreign Policy should achieve Both I believe. ( Tourists and Corporations)
Come to think of they are actually trying to do both at any cost.

Tourism : https://www.euronews.com/travel/202...-calls-to-resign-over-widely-criticised-video

Foreign Corps. : https://www.dailysabah.com/business...op-us-execs-to-talk-investment-highlight-ties

Yah corona-2020 took sledgehammer to everything.

It is hard to say if 2019 was genuine recovery/improvement (in Balance of payments which is just one part of economy to begin with) or a one-off driven by whatever transient (or combination of transients), it would have needed a non-corona world to determine that.

I say that because there is important underlying data (regd investment etc) that really was not improving so much in Turkey in 2019 (and years prior to it), one example:

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

....so it would have needed a multi-year chunk to fully see what was going on in other factors.

In any case, the huge noise and mess in S-N ratio of economies and world economy at large due to the corona crisis definitely is the main feature going on right now and probably for some more years will be dominant. This is whole different analysis to do.

 

[Blank1]

We are loosing to much money because of 2 things:

- Old pensionado's
- GMO fruit & vegetables

Those 2 are the cancers of our economy.

We have millions of old pensionado's. They dont spend money, they dont pay taxes, they dont buy a car or house, they dont pay rent (because they live with their sons and daugter in law) and they are depleting the Healthcare because for them Healthcare is free. In a Turkish hospital you see only old people farting and shitting in their pants and they are visiting the doctor because of a headache or painfarting. And they DON'T DIE. Every month they get paid out from the state budget and they dont spend a penny. Maybe they will die soon with because the government vaccinated them all with Sinovac, but you never know.

- I m from a farmers family and Turkey is crowded with GMO vegetables and fruit. We must buy YEARLY seeds, because you cant use the seeds from your grown vegetables for the next year. It's sterilized and fruit cant grow further from another fruit. Normally if you eat a watermelon or a apple, you can just trow away the seed and if the ground is fruitful, with a little bit water and sun there will grow a plant. But not in Turkey's case. The most seeds Turkey is buying for their farmers are Geneticly Modified from the US, Netherlands and Israel. Turkey pays billions of dollars. The most stupid thing a government can do, is buying yearly GMO seeds for billions of dollars.

There is no need to be angry about pensioners its a global thing, SOME of them do pay taxes e.g if by any fortune or misfortune you have visited local stock exchange office they are filled with old people. Some invest money in housing, markets, buy agricultural land, many small businesses etc which are all taxed & those who have money left in banks tax is deducted from them.

About genetically modified seeds, That's new for me!
Isn't there any institute in Turkey like Pakistan NIFA ? The have successfully produced excellent quality of maize, wheat, tobacco, sugarcane etc they in the past government provided free seeds to farmers in some amount, extra needed amount required payment. Harvest from those seeds is also used for next cultivation without the need for buying or getting more.
Such kind of institute is of great significance for the nation, Government should look into it.

 

[Spook]

We are loosing to much money because of 2 things:

- Old pensionado's
- GMO fruit & vegetables

Those 2 are the cancers of our economy.

We have millions of old pensionado's. They dont spend money, they dont pay taxes, they dont buy a car or house, they dont pay rent (because they live with their sons and daugter in law) and they are depleting the Healthcare because for them Healthcare is free. In a Turkish hospital you see only old people farting and shitting in their pants and they are visiting the doctor because of a headache or painfarting. And they DON'T DIE. Every month they get paid out from the state budget and they dont spend a penny. Maybe they will die soon with because the government vaccinated them all with Sinovac, but you never know.

- I m from a farmers family and Turkey is crowded with GMO vegetables and fruit. We must buy YEARLY seeds, because you cant use the seeds from your grown vegetables for the next year. It's sterilized and fruit cant grow further from another fruit. Normally if you eat a watermelon or a apple, you can just trow away the seed and if the ground is fruitful, with a little bit water and sun there will grow a plant. But not in Turkey's case. The most seeds Turkey is buying for their farmers are Geneticly Modified from the US, Netherlands and Israel. Turkey pays billions of dollars. The most stupid thing a government can do, is buying yearly GMO seeds for billions of dollars.

Pensionado's do spend money. Almost all the money they spend go to informal economy. Like street sellers, small shops, bazaars where transactions are cash based. Government does not have proper policy for informal economy which is big in Turkey.

 

[Spook]

About genetically modified seeds, That's new for me!
Isn't there any institute in Turkey like Pakistan NIFA ? The have successfully produced excellent quality of maize, wheat, tobacco, sugarcane etc they in the past government provided free seeds to farmers in some amount, extra needed amount required payment. Harvest from those seeds is also used for next cultivation without the need for buying or getting more.
Such kind of institute is of great significance for the nation, Government should look into it.

There is no institute. It's a big problem. Turkey failed to determine a agricultural policy and take steps. There is food insecurity. Local crops are expensive as so many costs add up. Just think of logistics to getting and moving the harvest around the country. It's done with tractor and truck powered by oil. Oil is very expensive in Turkey. We have to do innovations to bring costs down. That's the only way to revive agriculture industry.

 

[Blank1]

There is no institute. It's a big problem. Turkey failed to determine a agricultural policy and take steps. There is food insecurity. Local crops are expensive as so many costs add up. Just think of logistics to getting and moving the harvest around the country. It's done with tractor and truck powered by oil. Oil is very expensive in Turkey. We have to do innovations to bring costs down. That's the only way to revive agriculture industry.

Logistics is a separate issue, Pakistan have the same problem among others, but buying seed from abroad for a country like Turkey is shocking at least for me, Turkey must be fully independent in agriculture sector. We got water, dams and land suitable for cultivation.
To encourage the farmers soft loans should be provided, taxes should be reduced on agricultural land and cultivation, free tractors should be provided if possible and prices of fertilizer should be reduced. Pakistan did it all we can do it too.
Its not that we will become fully independent in agriculture in a couple of years but will reduce imports dramatically.

 

[Xenon54]

Logistics is a separate issue, Pakistan have the same problem among others, but buying seed from abroad for a country like Turkey is shocking at least for me, Turkey must be fully independent in agriculture sector. We got water, dams and land suitable for cultivation.
To encourage the farmers soft loans should be provided, taxes should be reduced on agricultural land and cultivation, free tractors should be provided if possible and prices of fertilizer should be reduced. Pakistan did it all we can do it too.
Its not that we will become fully independent in agriculture in a couple of years but will reduce imports dramatically.

New Zealand archived that by cutting the goverment subsidizing, just saying.

 

[Turko]

British magazine made fun of sending waste to Turkey

İngiliz dergi atıkların Türkiye'ye gönderilmesiyle alay etti

İngiltere’nin geri dönüştürülemeyen çöplerinin yarısını ithal eden Türkiye, İngiliz hiciv dergisi Private Eye’da dalga konusu oldu. Derginin bazı geri dönüşüm sembollerinin ‘açıklandığı’ bölümünde, “Türkiye’ye götürülecek ve yakılacak” ifadeleri yer aldı.

www.cumhuriyet.com.tr

Turkey, which imports half of Britain's non-recyclable garbage, was the subject of ridicule in the British satirical magazine Private Eye. In the section of the magazine where some recycling symbols were 'explained', there were statements such as "to be taken to Turkey and burned".

 

[Huelague]

British magazine made fun of sending waste to Turkey

İngiliz dergi atıkların Türkiye'ye gönderilmesiyle alay etti

İngiltere’nin geri dönüştürülemeyen çöplerinin yarısını ithal eden Türkiye, İngiliz hiciv dergisi Private Eye’da dalga konusu oldu. Derginin bazı geri dönüşüm sembollerinin ‘açıklandığı’ bölümünde, “Türkiye’ye götürülecek ve yakılacak” ifadeleri yer aldı.

www.cumhuriyet.com.tr

Turkey, which imports half of Britain's non-recyclable garbage, was the subject of ridicule in the British satirical magazine Private Eye. In the section of the magazine where some recycling symbols were 'explained', there were statements such as "to be taken to Turkey and burned".

View attachment 21938

View attachment 21939

Turkey. Rubbish bin of EU.

 

[Anmdt]

Turkish Trade in the Last 4 Years.

View attachment 21838

> I have looked up the recent Trade deficit values for the Month of April and apparently its getting better. But the pace is interesting.

Lira has no power.. people can not buy anything from abroad because everything is automatically taxed (customs tax + OTV)
Imported goods are crazy expensive even more than the direct currency rate conversion because it is not stable and risky.

British magazine made fun of sending waste to Turkey

İngiliz dergi atıkların Türkiye'ye gönderilmesiyle alay etti

İngiltere’nin geri dönüştürülemeyen çöplerinin yarısını ithal eden Türkiye, İngiliz hiciv dergisi Private Eye’da dalga konusu oldu. Derginin bazı geri dönüşüm sembollerinin ‘açıklandığı’ bölümünde, “Türkiye’ye götürülecek ve yakılacak” ifadeleri yer aldı.

www.cumhuriyet.com.tr

Turkey, which imports half of Britain's non-recyclable garbage, was the subject of ridicule in the British satirical magazine Private Eye. In the section of the magazine where some recycling symbols were 'explained', there were statements such as "to be taken to Turkey and burned".

View attachment 21938

View attachment 21939

Wonder which company does that and earns money, and wonder who are they affiliated with on the background..
You know it is technically impossible to brind that much of waster without government is being aware of and burning without raising any questions.

 

[Stuka]

Turkey’s Economy Outperformed Most Peers -- But at a Cost​

By Cagan Koc
May 31, 2021, 9:05 AM GMT+2 Updated on May 31, 2021, 11:31 AM GMT+2

• GDP growth of 7% in first quarter better than most G20 members
• Analysts in Bloomberg survey predicted 6.3% annual expansion

A street vendor in Istanbul, Turkey. Photographer: Nicole Tung/Bloomberg

Turkey’s economy has grown at a strong pace this year, outperforming most large economies as it recovers from the pandemic -- an expansion that’s come at the expense of price and currency stability.

Turkey grew faster than all Group of 20 nations except for China in the first quarter after nearly stalling a year ago when Covid-19 struck. It’s been bolstered by robust consumption on the back of last year’s government-led push to cut interest rates and boost lending.

Gross domestic product rose 7% from a year earlier and 1.7% from the fourth quarter. The median of 22 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey was for 6.3% growth compared to the same period in 2020.

Robust Growth​

Turkey’s economy outperformed all G-20 peers except China in 1Q
Source: Bloomberg, official data

There is an “exchange rate illusion” in Turkey’s economic growth data, said Enver Erkan, chief economist at Istanbul-based Tera Yatirim. GDP per capita in U.S. dollar terms has dropped nearly 40% since 2013 to around $7,700 last year, making Turkey’s economic model unsustainable as the growth is mainly driven by government spending and efforts to boost lending, he said.
The government encouraged banks to ramp up loans to help businesses and consumers ride out last year’s Covid-19 crisis. The credit boom was coupled with a front-loaded easing cycle. That growth push weakened the currency by 20% last year and kept headline inflation in double digits.
The currency lost a further 10% against the dollar in the first quarter, particularly after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired the central bank’s hawkish governor Naci Agbal in March. The decision to fire Agbal, who had sought to restore the central bank’s credibility, set off a swift reversal of investor enthusiasm, sending Turkish markets into a nosedive.

Below are some more highlights from the GDP report released by the state statistics institute in Ankara on Monday:

• Household consumption -- estimated to account for about two-thirds of the economy -- continues to be one of the main drivers of growth. It jumped 7.4% from a year earlier.
• The biggest contribution to growth came from manufacturing sector, which rose 12.2% in the first quarter on an annual basis.
• The size of the economy grew to $728.5 billion in the first quarter from $717 billion in current prices last year.
• Exports rose 3.3% on an annual basis. Imports dropped 1.1%.
• Gross fixed capital formation, a measure of investment by businesses, rose an annual 11.4%. Government spending rose 1.3% after a 6.6% jump in the previous quarter.
• The economy grew by 1.7% in the last quarter from the previous three months when adjusted for seasonality and the number of working days. Overall output rose 1.8% in 2020.

The data expose the challenge facing new central bank Governor Sahap Kavcioglu as he looks to restore price stability without cooling the economy ahead of the general elections in 2023.
Kavcioglu pledged policy continuity after his appointment and kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 19% for a second meeting this month, saying the pace of price gains had peaked in April. Consumer inflation quickened for a seventh month to 17.14% in April.
There may be a limited drop in the pace of growth in the second quarter, according to Istanbul-based economist Haluk Burumcekci. “Uncertainties regarding the monetary policy makes it difficult to assess the upside risks on our growth expectation of 5.5% for 2021,” he said.

@Anmdt anything in relation to positivity from a citizens perspective or is everybody exhausted regardless how big growth will be ?

 

[Anmdt]

Turkey’s Economy Outperformed Most Peers -- But at a Cost​

By Cagan Koc
May 31, 2021, 9:05 AM GMT+2 Updated on May 31, 2021, 11:31 AM GMT+2

• GDP growth of 7% in first quarter better than most G20 members
• Analysts in Bloomberg survey predicted 6.3% annual expansion

A street vendor in Istanbul, Turkey. Photographer: Nicole Tung/Bloomberg

Turkey’s economy has grown at a strong pace this year, outperforming most large economies as it recovers from the pandemic -- an expansion that’s come at the expense of price and currency stability.

Turkey grew faster than all Group of 20 nations except for China in the first quarter after nearly stalling a year ago when Covid-19 struck. It’s been bolstered by robust consumption on the back of last year’s government-led push to cut interest rates and boost lending.

Gross domestic product rose 7% from a year earlier and 1.7% from the fourth quarter. The median of 22 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey was for 6.3% growth compared to the same period in 2020.

Robust Growth​

Turkey’s economy outperformed all G-20 peers except China in 1Q
Source: Bloomberg, official data

There is an “exchange rate illusion” in Turkey’s economic growth data, said Enver Erkan, chief economist at Istanbul-based Tera Yatirim. GDP per capita in U.S. dollar terms has dropped nearly 40% since 2013 to around $7,700 last year, making Turkey’s economic model unsustainable as the growth is mainly driven by government spending and efforts to boost lending, he said.
The government encouraged banks to ramp up loans to help businesses and consumers ride out last year’s Covid-19 crisis. The credit boom was coupled with a front-loaded easing cycle. That growth push weakened the currency by 20% last year and kept headline inflation in double digits.
The currency lost a further 10% against the dollar in the first quarter, particularly after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired the central bank’s hawkish governor Naci Agbal in March. The decision to fire Agbal, who had sought to restore the central bank’s credibility, set off a swift reversal of investor enthusiasm, sending Turkish markets into a nosedive.

Below are some more highlights from the GDP report released by the state statistics institute in Ankara on Monday:

• Household consumption -- estimated to account for about two-thirds of the economy -- continues to be one of the main drivers of growth. It jumped 7.4% from a year earlier.
• The biggest contribution to growth came from manufacturing sector, which rose 12.2% in the first quarter on an annual basis.
• The size of the economy grew to $728.5 billion in the first quarter from $717 billion in current prices last year.
• Exports rose 3.3% on an annual basis. Imports dropped 1.1%.
• Gross fixed capital formation, a measure of investment by businesses, rose an annual 11.4%. Government spending rose 1.3% after a 6.6% jump in the previous quarter.
• The economy grew by 1.7% in the last quarter from the previous three months when adjusted for seasonality and the number of working days. Overall output rose 1.8% in 2020.

The data expose the challenge facing new central bank Governor Sahap Kavcioglu as he looks to restore price stability without cooling the economy ahead of the general elections in 2023.
Kavcioglu pledged policy continuity after his appointment and kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 19% for a second meeting this month, saying the pace of price gains had peaked in April. Consumer inflation quickened for a seventh month to 17.14% in April.
There may be a limited drop in the pace of growth in the second quarter, according to Istanbul-based economist Haluk Burumcekci. “Uncertainties regarding the monetary policy makes it difficult to assess the upside risks on our growth expectation of 5.5% for 2021,” he said.

View attachment 21980


@Anmdt anything in relation to positivity from a citizens perspective or is everybody exhausted regardless how big growth will be ?

Positivity? I don't see any, while the actual inflation has been over 50% percent on most products. I am not that much affected because i only afford the core family but i really wonder how people afford with 2-3 even 5 kids. I really wonder what do they eat with a single minimum wage.
People are exhausted of inflation and high currency rates, workplaces are exhausted of high and instable currency rates which they can't foresee and lean on loans.

 

[Turko]

Listen, what Daron Acemoğlu author of "Why Nations Fail"and "Narrow Coridor" books, is telling about Turkish Banks and economy.

Daron Acemoglu - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[TheInsider]

At some point, Turkiye was close to 900 billion$ GDP. Turkiye will continue to grow, it is recovering the losses of the last 5-7 years but this won't translate into income equality. Turkish growth=Turkish oligarchs getting richer while average people suffer.