TR Economy & Updates

[Xenon54]

When you have found the perfect leadership you want it to last forever.
Prophet Mohammad was poisoned by a Jewish woman.

Lol only a fanatic would declare a president to be perfect.
You know what they say about kim jong un? That he doesnt shit is that the case with erdogan too?

 

[Zafer]

Lol only a fanatic would declare a president to be perfect.
You know what they say about kim jong un? That he doesnt shit is that the case with erdogan too?

Erdoğan does everything better than anyone could ever imagine despite all the opposition from all sides. Talking about fanatism, I am not wearing an Erdoğan face like you are wearing an Atatürk face.

 

[Ravenman]

This is and will be a slave force literally. Millions will work for wages under 300$ per month because Erdo wants to be the China of Europe.

Wrong. I dont understand why people blame the governmemt in this.

Every firm i contacted and every firm other friends or cousins of mine contacted (from supermarkets to grocerystores and fabrics to insurance companies and postagencies), stressed that they pay the minimum wage (2800 tl).

If you have no diplomas you for sure get minumum wage. And some even get minimum wage with diploma. If you ask for more, they tell you there are Syrians and Afghans who want to work for less.

I wrote myself to İŞKUR, the State Workless Agency. They found jobs for me in different branches, all of them i called and all of them offered minimum wage. About one firm i even make a complaint because they offered less than minimum wage (a part must go to the manager as a gift because he hired me and i should be very thankfull to him).

The AKP government constantly raised the minimumwage, but if they raise again, firms will fire everyone and hire Syrians for 1500.

Raising the minimum wage is not a solution.Government should punnish the 'give all personal only minimum wage' mentality.

 

[Xenon54]

Erdoğan does everything better than anyone could ever imagine despite all the opposition from all sides. Talking about fanatism, I am not wearing an Erdoğan face like you are wearing an Atatürk face.

Have you ever seen me in real life?

 

[Lool]

Erdoğan does everything better than anyone could ever imagine despite all the opposition from all sides. Talking about fanatism, I am not wearing an Erdoğan face like you are wearing an Atatürk face.

While I do respect Erdo more than the CHP, I can assure you that Erdo isnt perfect. Even I who respect him, disagree with him on several occasions tbh but to call a human being nearly perfect is just wrong tbh

 

[the]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1443602187591028737

Interesting thread about the Akkuyu nuclear power plant.

"The Akkuyu NPP is a BOO model, meaning Russia pays for construction ($20 billion) fixed price, with a guaranteed purchase of electricity produced at a fixed price, which then allows for Rosatom to recoup the full $20 billion — eventually."

Its rather surprising the Russia went ahead with the project even though its likely to result in a heavy financial loss. So much so that they've been trying to sell almost 49% of shares (ownership of the plant) to foreign investors in order to offset total losses.

 

[Lool]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1443602187591028737

Interesting thread about the Akkuyu nuclear power plant.

"The Akkuyu NPP is a BOO model, meaning Russia pays for construction ($20 billion) fixed price, with a guaranteed purchase of electricity produced at a fixed price, which then allows for Rosatom to recoup the full $20 billion — eventually."

Its rather surprising the Russia went ahead with the project even though its likely to result in a heavy financial loss. So much so that they've been trying to sell almost 49% of shares (ownership of the plant) to foreign investors in order to offset total losses.

What Russia wanted was to ensure that Turkey keeps paying its electricty tab to Russia and none other than it
Turkey is one of the largest energy markets for Russia and they didnt want to lose that
Not only that, the moment Russia loses Turkey as an energy customer, Russia will lose massive revenues in addition to a card that can be used against Turkey
The Akuyu nuclear plant is a deal that met the demands of both parties
The only proboem is its location, I guess
What Turkey will win is
1- Gain expertise on building nuclear reactors
2- Turkish scientists and engineers will be the one operating the plant
3- Turkey will pay the price tab in lira and not dollars which will reduce the trade deficit and reduce the lira's vulnerability to external factors like oil and gas price changes etc

 

[Abdelaziz]

What Russia wanted was to ensure that Turkey keeps paying its electricty tab to Russia and none other than it
Turkey is one of the largest energy markets for Russia and they didnt want to lose that
Not only that, the moment Russia loses Turkey as an energy customer, Russia will lose massive revenues in addition to a card that can be used against Turkey
The Akuyu nuclear plant is a deal that met the demands of both parties
The only proboem is its location, I guess
What Turkey will win is
1- Gain expertise on building nuclear reactors
2- Turkish scientists and engineers will be the one operating the plant
3- Turkey will pay the price tab in lira and not dollars which will reduce the trade deficit and reduce the lira's vulnerability to external factors like oil and gas price changes etc

+ Nuclear power is cheap and nuclear planets have a very long life cycle

 

[Huelague]

The amount of corruption in AKP goverment is mind blowing, the next goverment will have to use all their term just to clean up the mess behind them.

To bring in their own ones.

 

[Nilgiri]

To bring in their own ones.

This is why plebs must never willingly have one set of patricians around for too long...especially in this day and age.

A large part of problem in Turkey right now (IMO) is that AKP admin has been around for 20 years or so now....

In democracies I feel 2 terms should be about the maximum for any admin. Eject them after it and let next bunch of guys do their thing (clean house etc)....and then replace them again later....run them all against each other and dont be captive to any. Hold all feet to the fire the same and replace them frequently.

You have one set around longer than that, they tend towards autocracy inevitably.

You have to keep the patricians pitted against each other (i.e by being as close as possible to everyone being a swing voter)....to maximise plebian bargaining power.

In growing autocracy (3+ , 4+ terms)....it is the plebs that have lost nearly all their bargaining power and the country goes through the motions with much damage done given the time of stuff being allowed to build up autocratically that should not be.

 

[Zafer]

While I do respect Erdo more than the CHP, I can assure you that Erdo isnt perfect. Even I who respect him, disagree with him on several occasions tbh but to call a human being nearly perfect is just wrong tbh

I said perfect leadership and you took it for Erdoğan is perfect. Leadership means president and his ministers togather.

 

[Xenon54]

I said perfect leadership and you took it for Erdoğan is perfect. Leadership means president and his ministers togather.

You are delusional, completely out of touch with reality just like your whole party and thats why you are gonna loose the next election, i sincerely hope that you guys continue being the way you are so that the country can finally get rid of your party and remember its rule as history to take lesson from.


As said, just continue being they way you are.

 

[Anastasius]

Wrong. I dont understand why people blame the governmemt in this.

Every firm i contacted and every firm other friends or cousins of mine contacted (from supermarkets to grocerystores and fabrics to insurance companies and postagencies), stressed that they pay the minimum wage (2800 tl).

If you have no diplomas you for sure get minumum wage. And some even get minimum wage with diploma. If you ask for more, they tell you there are Syrians and Afghans who want to work for less.

I wrote myself to İŞKUR, the State Workless Agency. They found jobs for me in different branches, all of them i called and all of them offered minimum wage. About one firm i even make a complaint because they offered less than minimum wage (a part must go to the manager as a gift because he hired me and i should be very thankfull to him).

The AKP government constantly raised the minimumwage, but if they raise again, firms will fire everyone and hire Syrians for 1500.

Raising the minimum wage is not a solution.Government should punnish the 'give all personal only minimum wage' mentality.

This. We have people in America who constantly screech about workers being paid s**t wages (and rightfully so) but seem painfully blind to the fact that raising the minimum wage will not fix this problem.

I am honestly not sure what will. Is there stuff like worker unions in Turkey?

 

[Zafer]

You are delusional, completely out of touch with reality just like your whole party and thats why you are gonna loose the next election, i sincerely hope that you guys continue being the way you are so that the country can finally get rid of your party and remember its rule as history to take lesson from.


As said, just continue being they way you are.

View attachment 32618

I don't believe in fortune telling.

 

[mulj]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1443602187591028737

Interesting thread about the Akkuyu nuclear power plant.

"The Akkuyu NPP is a BOO model, meaning Russia pays for construction ($20 billion) fixed price, with a guaranteed purchase of electricity produced at a fixed price, which then allows for Rosatom to recoup the full $20 billion — eventually."

Its rather surprising the Russia went ahead with the project even though its likely to result in a heavy financial loss. So much so that they've been trying to sell almost 49% of shares (ownership of the plant) to foreign investors in order to offset total losses.

This is common model for expensive energy projects, it is good deal for Turkey with minimum risks and lot of benefits.

 

[Xenon54]

I don't believe in fortune telling.

No woodoo here, its statistics from a dozen different poll research companies merged together, but i know you are delusional about the reality.
Just keep sleeping, the best thing you guys can do for the oppositions is to stay in your dream world.

 

[Turko]

Turkish Central Bank decreased interest rates but Turkish government gives ( market asks )more yields to 2 and 10 years bond.

Central Bank interest rates mean nothing, real market is 2-5-10 years bonds.

So it means USD will rise.

 

[Nilgiri]

Turkish Central Bank decreased interest rates but Turkish government gives ( market asks )more yields to 2 and 10 years bond.

Central Bank interest rates mean nothing, real market is 2-5-10 years bonds.

So it means USD will rise.
View attachment 32763

View attachment 32758

View attachment 32762
View attachment 32760
View attachment 32761

TR govt yield chart is all over the place last cpl years....right now it has flattened from previous inversion.

Turkey Government Bonds - Yields Curve

Turkey Government Bonds and Yields Curve. Updated charts and tables, agencies ratings, spread comparisons, current prices.

www.worldgovernmentbonds.com

It could re-invert again soon from the higher inflation caused by the I/R decrease.

This flat curve is pretty bad too....again because of the dbl digit inflation pushing it to this level.

There is very little difference between the whole spread....i.e you get 17 % return for maturity of 3 months....and 18.5% for maturity of 10 years.

There is no point at all for going for a long term bond...why wait 10 years, just get similar in 3 months etc...and re-invest for another 3 months etc.

It shows the short-term vicious cycle TR govt has put the economy into....largely due to lack of investment in last 5 - 10 years (relative to size of TR economy).

TR market cap (kind of like total "leveraging" potential) peaked around 2012 at 315 billion USD.

This was a huge increase from 30 billion USD in early 2000s.

Since then it has declined to 200 billion USD or so...and been stuck there since 2013.

Quantity wise TR should be aiming for 100 - 200% of GDP here to begin with (so plenty of wiggle room on rainy day periods)....instead of like 30% its stuck now.

It shows the hot money reliance (as this is easier esp with pre 2008 USD) in the 2000-2010 decade....when TR needed good balance of cold hard money that decade and the next one too.

Cold hard productive long term assets is name of the game (it puts the strongest floorboards).

That also needs deepest trust in the govt and institutions by investors and capital providers....as they know they cannot exit on a whim.

This is all related to the big problems in banking sector that AKP admin has layered over and kicked can on.

What we see today is some long term mismanagement playing out now in various different ways.

 

[Nilgiri]

Makes for some glum reading....It is horrendous they reduced interest rate in this atmosphere....even status quo is not enough....desperate politics no matter the harm....

Ankara struggles to control inflation narrative as Turks’ mistrust mounts

Criminal probe into economists who say prices are rising at double official rate highlights government jitters

www.ft.com

In an effort to hunt down alleged price-gougers, government inspectors were dispatched to supermarkets last week, according to local media. “This is fighting the symptoms because the government doesn’t want to take the bitter medicine,” said Atilla Yesilada, an analyst at Istanbul-based consultancy Global Source Partners. Reining in inflation “requires far higher interest rates and cuts in budget spending. And rent and food inflation are due to structural problems that require more time than the AKP has to win the next election.”

Other metrics also show faster-than-reported inflation. Steve Hanke, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University, uses purchasing power parity pegged to the dollar exchange rate, and found that consumer prices rose at double TurkStat’s rate in June.

“Erdogan like all politicians wants a low inflation rate, GDP growth to look high, interest rates to be pushed down,” Hanke said. “With all of those things going negative, Erdogan is incentivised to hide the data . . . He is convinced that high interest rates cause inflation, and that makes it very hard to fight inflation.”

 

[Turko]

TR govt yield chart is all over the place last cpl years....right now it has flattened from previous inversion.

Turkey Government Bonds - Yields Curve

Turkey Government Bonds and Yields Curve. Updated charts and tables, agencies ratings, spread comparisons, current prices.

www.worldgovernmentbonds.com

It could re-invert again soon from the higher inflation caused by the I/R decrease.

This flat curve is pretty bad too....again because of the dbl digit inflation pushing it to this level.

There is very little difference between the whole spread....i.e you get 17 % return for maturity of 3 months....and 18.5% for maturity of 10 years.

There is no point at all for going for a long term bond...why wait 10 years, just get similar in 3 months etc...and re-invest for another 3 months etc.

It shows the short-term vicious cycle TR govt has put the economy into....largely due to lack of investment in last 5 - 10 years (relative to size of TR economy).

TR market cap (kind of like total "leveraging" potential) peaked around 2012 at 315 billion USD.

This was a huge increase from 30 billion USD in early 2000s.

Since then it has declined to 200 billion USD or so...and been stuck there since 2013.

Quantity wise TR should be aiming for 100 - 200% of GDP here to begin with (so plenty of wiggle room on rainy day periods)....instead of like 30% its stuck now.

It shows the hot money reliance (as this is easier esp with pre 2008 USD) in the 2000-2010 decade....when TR needed good balance of cold hard money that decade and the next one too.

Cold hard productive long term assets is name of the game (it puts the strongest floorboards).

That also needs deepest trust in the govt and institutions by investors and capital providers....as they know they cannot exit on a whim.

This is all related to the big problems in banking sector that AKP admin has layered over and kicked can on.

What we see today is some long term mismanagement playing out now in various different ways.

How would you evaluate the situation of Turkish Central Bank which decreased interest rates from 19 to 18 while your government bonds yields are almost 18,55.?

Our central Bank intends more decreasing soon.