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I believe it will drop to 16% by this years end
Even the government said they wanted to drop the lira to around 9.4
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Even the government said they wanted to drop the lira to around 9.4
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Is such thing sustainable?
I mean Turkish exports already broke 4 export targets in the first 9 months alone. They broke through the old 2021,2021, and 2023 targets and already broke through the new 2021 target.
With the monthly export figure at 20 billion dollar and still increasing
Some speculate that by this year's end, Turkey may reach a target of around 270 billion and break the new export targets set for 2022 and 2023. This means that this year alone, Turkey may break through 6 export targets
Is such an act truly sustainable? I already read that some market shares from African & Asian countries have been swallowed by Turkey
www.dailysabah.com
I mean Turkish exports already broke 4 export targets in the first 9 months alone. They broke through the old 2021,2021, and 2023 targets and already broke through the new 2021 target.
With the monthly export figure at 20 billion dollar and still increasing
Some speculate that by this year's end, Turkey may reach a target of around 270 billion and break the new export targets set for 2022 and 2023. This means that this year alone, Turkey may break through 6 export targets
Is such an act truly sustainable? I already read that some market shares from African & Asian countries have been swallowed by Turkey
Turkey’s exports exceed $20B monthly threshold for first time
Turkish exporters have managed to exceed the $20 billion threshold for the first time on a monthly basis in September, the country’s trade minister...
T
But they will sell government bonds for higher yields than İnterest rates. That's why Turkish Banks don't give credits internal market.
Turkish exports is bounded to import of raw-materials and energy. How Turkish industry could buy new machinery with those currency?
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Iam wondering on whether they will increase the yields further or reduce it in the future
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Read the FT article I posted just above. It is more and more politics-driven rather than logic-driven.
Somewhat like death spiral - might as well go "all in" and force as much water from the stone as possible....no matter the cost.
If you mean more I/R decreases to come (since one has already been done)....God help Turkey masses in rest of 2021 and 2022.
Politicians can go through these motions almost inevitably, as they dont put country first. It opens up larger discussion on concept of "tyranny of majority" that must always be hedged in a reasonable system for nation.
You must always build system robustly that keeps fundamental things well away from politician's hands and scheming.
Independent judiciary, strategic financial institutions like central bank, media institutions etc.
For optimal strategic economic policy, a central bank needs to be put outside of a politician's diktat.
It must be independent as possible....an institution outside of politician hands as far as possible ....and long term institutional technocrats+economists that are as politics-neutral as possible to steer in chunks of 10 years.
Turkey has plenty of these (in fact lot of them have called out AKP a while now)
Model should be they give 3 - 4 candidates each X years that executive (elected by people) appoints from etc. Rather than executive picking whomever he darn pleases. There need to be some institutional weight here attached to its importance to everyone (the whole nation).
It generally must create as much debate and resistance to a politician (in executive room) as possible...as generally the politician wants to maximise his control of it in developing country.
A central bank only role should be price level (keep as low and stable as possible).
Its singular focus, and the nature of the focus are extremely important. It should not be involved in anything else, nor should it treat it sole objective casually (or completely reverse-logic way with lowering I/R in high inflation atmosphere).
This should never be conflated with providing economic growth (which is longer thing you build above and after the price stability and trust - and to be done by other parts of the govt and larger society).
If I may be so bold to say so, it is ridiculous that AKP/Erdogan has been allowed to appoint whomever he wants to central bank here. i.e yes-person that follows all instructions rather than proven economic analysis and understanding.
After this AKP/Erdogan era is over (whenever that is), TR must introspect deeply to create robust institutional system here so it cannot happen again (this level of ridiculous stuff when a country most needs opposite of it).
Especially since Erdogan thinks that interest rate is positively correlated to inflation, when its the friggin opposite!...with literal millions of pages of evidence worldwide!
T
Government bond is not a such thing like interest rates of national central Bank. If you give low yields on global market, noone will buy your bonds.
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More or less it depends on the inflation rate reported (whatever basket you choose and measure and say its "standard").
You need to deliver a few % higher than the inflation rate to make any bond have some demand.
Otherwise whats the point, you (the buyer) just loses value....might as well spend it (whatever buffer you have to invest) and buy some immediate hard asset yourself....and hope to sell that in better price later.
If the true inflation rate is much higher (like most of TR ppl on ground are saying it is)...then Lira bonds are effectively priced-out from the large majority of TR population (and a lot of their agglomerates)...given they are largely hand to mouth liquidity need + wages to begin with.
It may be the top-rung businesses and wealthy (and the banking that they use) that dont suffer the "actual inflation" rate as much that provide most lira bond demand in the end....especially as govt is now squeezing them on forex saving ratio from that end too. I know how it works in India lot better than Turkey on that stuff, so I cannot comment too much.
But in general, the genuine solution to fix all of this was 5+ years ago (given time needed to create a better robust structure underlying the economy)....but AKP admin did not do the reforms then for number of reasons as it had indulged and gotten use to autocrat mode is my understanding on it (and reforms need recognition and trust in others past yourself).
Now its stuck with the situation and thinking bullhorn first (w.r.t election, civil discourse pressure etc).
That's not good to actually address the situation (needs you to just forfeit the election or not care about it).
Guess we will wait and see.
T
@Nilgiri FT asks subscription , i copy here for free
www.ft.com
Newsletter: Europe Express
Your essential guide to what is important in Europe today. Delivered every weekday.
Shortly after a small group of Turkish academics began publishing their findings on inflation late last year, their data began to reflect what many Turks already suspected: prices were rising twice as fast as the government claimed.
The setback of Ankara was rapid. In February, the state-run Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) filed a criminal complaint against the independent Inflation Research Group (ENAG), which uses high-frequency data collection to track online prices and concluded that annual consumer price inflation is now around. 40 per cent, compared to TurkStat’s 19.5 per cent figure.
“Our goal was not to take a step against TurkStat or to create an alternative inflation rate,” said Veysel Ulusoy, who teaches economics at Yeditepe University and employs a dozen or so volunteers, including doctoral students, mathematicians and accountants. leading the independent inflation project. . “But polarization is everywhere in Turkey, even in the statistics.”
A prosecutor in Istanbul is now investigating TurkStat’s accusation that the group violated the rules required to publish its methodology. Ulusoy said ENAG’s research appeared in a peer-reviewed journal and called the allegation unfounded, but that expected charges would be filed in the coming months.
The legal problems of ENAG show how sad the subject numbers in Turkey are. The government registered the fastest economic growth in more than two decades in the second quarter of this year, but opinion polls show that many Turks are feeling out of bounds because inflation and unemployment remain in double digits, with a majority losing their confidence in official figures. The cost of living, unemployment and the economy were at the top of respondents’ list of concerns in recent surveys.
It reduces support for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), now at historic lows two years before the next election. The survey by the Turkiye Raporu polling agency this month found the lowest level of support for the ruling party at 29.9 percent, and its director Can Selcuki said that unhappiness with the economy was the main factor in the slump.
The central bank, which is meeting to set interest rates on Thursday, is under pressure from Erdogan to cut borrowing costs, although inflation has been stuck in double digits for the past four years. In March, the president appointed Governor Sahap Kavciolgu, a former newspaper writer who shares Erdogan’s unconventional view that high interest rates drive inflation, rather than suppress it.
Erdogan has long exercised strict control over economic policy by appointing and dismissing senior officials by a resolution. He has fired three central bank executives since 2019 for failing to lower interest rates quickly enough, and the subsequent uncertainty over the direction of monetary policy has hurt a third of the value of the lira against the dollar.
Kavcioglu has so far resisted the president’s pressure to lower the main interest rate by 19 percent as consumer prices rise. After saying this month that the bank will now look at the lower core inflation rate if it sets interest rates, it could deliver returns at Thursday’s meeting.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blames ‘opportunists’ for rising costs © Reuters
While economies around the world are struggling with inflation amid large-scale stimulus spending during the Covid-19 pandemic, the increasing demand and supply constraints of consumers, Erdogan in Turkey blames “opportunists” for rising costs. “By bringing inflation under control as soon as possible, we will prevent the exorbitant price increases on the shelf,” he said last week.
According to local media, government inspectors were sent to supermarkets last week in an attempt to drive up suspected prize money. “It combats the symptoms because the government does not want to take the bitter medicine,” said Atilla Yesilada, an analyst at Istanbul-based consultant Global Source Partners. The rise in inflation “requires much higher interest rates and cuts in budget spending. Rents and food inflation are due to structural problems that require more time than the AKP needs to win the next election. ”
Other statistics also show faster than reported. Steve Hanke, a professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University, uses purchasing power parity linked to the dollar exchange rate and found that consumer prices rose by twice the TurkStat rate in June.
“Erdogan, like all politicians, wants a low inflation rate, GDP growth must look high, interest rates must be pushed down,” Hanke said. ‘Because all of this is going negatively, Erdogan is being urged to hide the data. . . He is convinced that high interest rates cause inflation, which makes it very difficult to fight inflation. ”
TurkStat called media reports that its data was being manipulated “unfounded and fictitious” and said its statistics met international norms and standards.
But the public distrust in its numbers is deep. A poll by Aksoy Research this month showed that more than half of the participants believe that the economy shrank during the second quarter, when TurkStat achieved a growth of 21.7 percent. Metropoll found that 82 percent of respondents did not believe TurkStat’s reported drop in inflation to 16.6 percent in May.
ENAG uses web scraping to check prices at online retailers every day, to locate the same items and give them the same weight as TurkStat. Lutfi Elvan, the country’s finance minister, urged the public to ignore the findings of ENAG and argued that the group wanted to “slander” TurkStat.
“They have no right to mislead people, and they will get the appropriate response in court,” he said in a television interview earlier this year. He denies any political interference at TurkStat.
Ulusoy initially hoped to partner with TurkStat and provide measurements they currently cannot see. “It’s not just in Turkey, the static measure of inflation is wrong everywhere,” he said.
“People know that ENAG’s data reflects Turkey’s inflation, based on the money they have in their pockets and the prices on the street,” he said, adding, “even if it’s a terrible figure no one wants.
Ankara struggles to control inflation narrative as Turks’ mistrust mounts
Criminal probe into economists who say prices are rising at double official rate highlights government jitters
Ankara struggles to control inflation narrative as Turks’ mistrust mounts
Byadmin
SEP 23, 2021
Newsletter: Europe Express
Your essential guide to what is important in Europe today. Delivered every weekday.
Shortly after a small group of Turkish academics began publishing their findings on inflation late last year, their data began to reflect what many Turks already suspected: prices were rising twice as fast as the government claimed.
The setback of Ankara was rapid. In February, the state-run Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) filed a criminal complaint against the independent Inflation Research Group (ENAG), which uses high-frequency data collection to track online prices and concluded that annual consumer price inflation is now around. 40 per cent, compared to TurkStat’s 19.5 per cent figure.
“Our goal was not to take a step against TurkStat or to create an alternative inflation rate,” said Veysel Ulusoy, who teaches economics at Yeditepe University and employs a dozen or so volunteers, including doctoral students, mathematicians and accountants. leading the independent inflation project. . “But polarization is everywhere in Turkey, even in the statistics.”
A prosecutor in Istanbul is now investigating TurkStat’s accusation that the group violated the rules required to publish its methodology. Ulusoy said ENAG’s research appeared in a peer-reviewed journal and called the allegation unfounded, but that expected charges would be filed in the coming months.
The legal problems of ENAG show how sad the subject numbers in Turkey are. The government registered the fastest economic growth in more than two decades in the second quarter of this year, but opinion polls show that many Turks are feeling out of bounds because inflation and unemployment remain in double digits, with a majority losing their confidence in official figures. The cost of living, unemployment and the economy were at the top of respondents’ list of concerns in recent surveys.
It reduces support for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), now at historic lows two years before the next election. The survey by the Turkiye Raporu polling agency this month found the lowest level of support for the ruling party at 29.9 percent, and its director Can Selcuki said that unhappiness with the economy was the main factor in the slump.
The central bank, which is meeting to set interest rates on Thursday, is under pressure from Erdogan to cut borrowing costs, although inflation has been stuck in double digits for the past four years. In March, the president appointed Governor Sahap Kavciolgu, a former newspaper writer who shares Erdogan’s unconventional view that high interest rates drive inflation, rather than suppress it.
Erdogan has long exercised strict control over economic policy by appointing and dismissing senior officials by a resolution. He has fired three central bank executives since 2019 for failing to lower interest rates quickly enough, and the subsequent uncertainty over the direction of monetary policy has hurt a third of the value of the lira against the dollar.
Kavcioglu has so far resisted the president’s pressure to lower the main interest rate by 19 percent as consumer prices rise. After saying this month that the bank will now look at the lower core inflation rate if it sets interest rates, it could deliver returns at Thursday’s meeting.
While economies around the world are struggling with inflation amid large-scale stimulus spending during the Covid-19 pandemic, the increasing demand and supply constraints of consumers, Erdogan in Turkey blames “opportunists” for rising costs. “By bringing inflation under control as soon as possible, we will prevent the exorbitant price increases on the shelf,” he said last week.
According to local media, government inspectors were sent to supermarkets last week in an attempt to drive up suspected prize money. “It combats the symptoms because the government does not want to take the bitter medicine,” said Atilla Yesilada, an analyst at Istanbul-based consultant Global Source Partners. The rise in inflation “requires much higher interest rates and cuts in budget spending. Rents and food inflation are due to structural problems that require more time than the AKP needs to win the next election. ”
Other statistics also show faster than reported. Steve Hanke, a professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University, uses purchasing power parity linked to the dollar exchange rate and found that consumer prices rose by twice the TurkStat rate in June.
“Erdogan, like all politicians, wants a low inflation rate, GDP growth must look high, interest rates must be pushed down,” Hanke said. ‘Because all of this is going negatively, Erdogan is being urged to hide the data. . . He is convinced that high interest rates cause inflation, which makes it very difficult to fight inflation. ”
TurkStat called media reports that its data was being manipulated “unfounded and fictitious” and said its statistics met international norms and standards.
But the public distrust in its numbers is deep. A poll by Aksoy Research this month showed that more than half of the participants believe that the economy shrank during the second quarter, when TurkStat achieved a growth of 21.7 percent. Metropoll found that 82 percent of respondents did not believe TurkStat’s reported drop in inflation to 16.6 percent in May.
ENAG uses web scraping to check prices at online retailers every day, to locate the same items and give them the same weight as TurkStat. Lutfi Elvan, the country’s finance minister, urged the public to ignore the findings of ENAG and argued that the group wanted to “slander” TurkStat.
“They have no right to mislead people, and they will get the appropriate response in court,” he said in a television interview earlier this year. He denies any political interference at TurkStat.
Ulusoy initially hoped to partner with TurkStat and provide measurements they currently cannot see. “It’s not just in Turkey, the static measure of inflation is wrong everywhere,” he said.
“People know that ENAG’s data reflects Turkey’s inflation, based on the money they have in their pockets and the prices on the street,” he said, adding, “even if it’s a terrible figure no one wants.
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Denmark aims for €5 bln trade volume with Turkey: Envoy - Latest News
Denmark and Turkey set an ambitious goal for economic development and cooperation to reach 5 billion euros in bilateral trade and green energy is one of the hot sectors helping to achieve it, the Danish ambassador to Ankara has said.
Would be waste with no check and balances to control stuff
Zafer
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Somebody checked and balanced Turkey every decade until we could finally break free.Denmark aims for €5 bln trade volume with Turkey: Envoy - Latest News
Denmark and Turkey set an ambitious goal for economic development and cooperation to reach 5 billion euros in bilateral trade and green energy is one of the hot sectors helping to achieve it, the Danish ambassador to Ankara has said.www.hurriyetdailynews.com
Would be waste with no check and balances to control stuff
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Turkey to open 1,000 new markets to rein in price hikes: Erdoğan
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said Turkey had tasked agricultural cooperatives with opening about 1,000 new markets across the country to provide...
So opening 1000 new markets are going to work miracles on the prices ? This is another excuse to start construction projects to provide minimum salary to unemployed people IF they want to jeopardize their health and life in the construction sector.
Undermening existing businesses who've invested in big malls and such...
The was OBL was disposed of even his corpse is very appealing.
Last edited:
Ravenman
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Turkey to open 1,000 new markets to rein in price hikes: Erdoğan
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said Turkey had tasked agricultural cooperatives with opening about 1,000 new markets across the country to provide...
So opening 1000 new markets are going to work miracles on the prices ? This is another excuse to start construction projects to provide minimum salary to unemployed people IF they want to jeopardize their health and life in the construction sector.
Undermening existing businesses who've invested in big malls and such...
The was OBL was disposed of even his corpse is very appealing.
Very good measure from the not so loved government.
Ultrabig Superduper Grocery Chains like A101, BIM, Migros and ŞoK are a living cancer on the body of the Turkish people. They are monopolising the market and cartelizing the prizes of basic needs and destroying the little stores and middle groceries with their agressive policy. You see them at every corner of the street, they are like dirty diapers smashing at your carwindow.
Let's hope that the governments war against inflation will succeed and that these juggernaut superdupers go bankrupt.
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While I understand the reason, what I'm curious about is the prices. For supermarket chains their product prices should be reflected nation wide. If they lower the price of cabbage or tea to (let's say) 20 TL that price should be the same in Van and Istanbul. Allowing these supermarkets to differentiate prices from region to region would jeopardize competition.
You make a law forcing the chains to hold the prices throughout Turkey and ensure it's done, and follow up with introducing a competitor that goes for fair price. That would force the big chains to follow suit.
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The prices of products go up? Just open more markets. Great economy geniuses of AKP at work once again...Turkey to open 1,000 new markets to rein in price hikes: Erdoğan
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said Turkey had tasked agricultural cooperatives with opening about 1,000 new markets across the country to provide...
So opening 1000 new markets are going to work miracles on the prices ? This is another excuse to start construction projects to provide minimum salary to unemployed people IF they want to jeopardize their health and life in the construction sector.
Undermening existing businesses who've invested in big malls and such...
The was OBL was disposed of even his corpse is very appealing.
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The prices of the goods are not only determined by the vendors, you cant just slap higher prices othervide customer will go somewhere else.
The problem lies in bad economy, devaluating currency and too high imports, opening 1000 more markets will do nothing to fix this, just waste of money but thats what you guys and AKP dont get.
Zafer
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It is supposed to be good for the people, so why the opposition? I guess people being happy is no go for political reasons.Turkey to open 1,000 new markets to rein in price hikes: Erdoğan
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said Turkey had tasked agricultural cooperatives with opening about 1,000 new markets across the country to provide...
So opening 1000 new markets are going to work miracles on the prices ? This is another excuse to start construction projects to provide minimum salary to unemployed people IF they want to jeopardize their health and life in the construction sector.
Undermening existing businesses who've invested in big malls and such...
The was OBL was disposed of even his corpse is very appealing.
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The thing is, something like that good directly from the producers already exists with around 400 stores:
Türkiye Tarım Kredi Kooperatifleri
www.tarimkredi.org.tr
But apparently (i never seen them) the prices are even higher than at BIM and the sorts, because they of course pay a fairer price to the producers/farmers but have a smaller assortment of goods. Big chains have a big negotiation power and thus what you see at BIM for example with a low discounter margin of 2-3% is the best price you will get.
Except if the government subsidizes it.
T
İt recalls me "cheap sales points " which had opened before elections and which was abondened .
You can't opress market where all expenditures are rising thanks to high inflation.
The government had better calm down inflation.
You can't opress market where all expenditures are rising thanks to high inflation.
The government had better calm down inflation.
