TR Economy & Updates

[TR_123456]

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What is the reasoning behind such a small share of GDP allocated for defence ? Is this a joke ? Turkiye has the most active armed forces and is constantly in conflict and has the highest risk of war yet is allocating a lower share of gdp then norway and canada . It is also one of the 3 countries to decrease their defence budget ( in terms of % of GDP) despite increasing global tension. An armed force that already had insufficient funds to procure/upgrade vehicles/ equipment has only just gone and further decreased the budget ...
this has really trigerred me to be honest , any reasoning behind this ? or something that I missed like jandarmas budget being seperate from this ( still not a good enough reason as the armed forces are responsible for the defence of the nation and thus needs a much higer share of GDP, jandarma , as much as they are effective at anti-guerilla operations, are not capable/expected to engage an armed force such as iran or syria).

Maybe because we dont buy from others anymore?

 

[Tuncay]

Maybe because we dont buy from others anymore?

If i remember correctly the defence budget includes all spending including personel wages, equipment procurement and R&D. It doesn't change if the product is local or foreign , the product maybe given at a discounted price but is not given free of charge and that expense is documented and added to the defence budget. A drop in budget means less budget for procuring products local or not. There is no correlation between budget and localised products . Take the US as an example the biggest economy in the world and the largest producer of weapons has allocated a share of 3.49 , they certainly do not procure foreign weapons not including anomalys like the L118 howitzer which is solely to boost/support allies defence industry they produce everything they need.

 

[Afif]

If i remember correctly the defence budget includes all spending including personel wages, equipment procurement and R&D. It doesn't change if the product is local or foreign , the product maybe given at a discounted price but is not given free of charge and that expense is documented and added to the defence budget. A drop in budget means less budget for procuring products local or not. There is no correlation between budget and localised products . Take the US as an example the biggest economy in the world and the largest producer of weapons has allocated a share of 3.49 , they certainly do not procure foreign weapons not including anomalys like the L118 howitzer which is solely to boost/support allies defence industry they produce everything they need.

I think it has been discussed before. Afaik, R&D bugdet is seperate.

Also, I don't think it is fair to compare developing country's defence budget with developed countries defence budget. (Let alone with USA)

For example, China despite being the only true contender in great power competition with United States only spends 1.7% percent of its GDP on defence. (Because, it is a developing nation)

 

[TR_123456]

If i remember correctly the defence budget includes all spending including personel wages, equipment procurement and R&D. It doesn't change if the product is local or foreign , the product maybe given at a discounted price but is not given free of charge and that expense is documented and added to the defence budget. A drop in budget means less budget for procuring products local or not. There is no correlation between budget and localised products . Take the US as an example the biggest economy in the world and the largest producer of weapons has allocated a share of 3.49 , they certainly do not procure foreign weapons not including anomalys like the L118 howitzer which is solely to boost/support allies defence industry they produce everything they need.

You cant compare it to the US,in the US everybody makes money on domestic weapons sales.
In our country that is not the issue,the Turkish Armed Forces buys everything almost at cost price,the margins are small.

 

[Tuncay]

You cant compare it to the US,in the US everybody makes money on domestic weapons sales.
In our country that is not the issue,the Turkish Armed Forces buys everything almost at cost price,the margins are small.

everything aside , the decrease of budget and for the share of GDP for defence to be 1.31 when the NATO guidline is 2 is nothing positive . With a budget of +- 15 bilion where 52% is spent on personel wages its going to be dificult to replace aging tanks , ifv etc. Localisation of products is not the reason for this the economy is. Still in these conditions the defence industry is excelling , only if there was a budget to procure these products in much larger numbers

 

[Rooxbar]

Türkiye's Borsa Istanbul (BIST 100) hits all-time high​

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Türkiye's Borsa Istanbul (BIST 100) hits all-time high​

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Now do that but in a stable currency, you can choose any one of them; dollars, euros, yens, yuans, whatever. What's Bors Istanbul's yearly performance based on its value in a currency that isn't nosediving? -30%, worst in the whole wide world. (well maybe not worse than Zimbabwe's second city's stock market, but everybody knows what I mean).

 

[Rodeo]

Now do that but in a stable currency, you can choose any one of them; dollars, euros, yens, yuans, whatever. What's Bors Istanbul's yearly performance based on its value in a currency that isn't nosediving? -30%, worst in the whole wide world. (well maybe not worse than Zimbabwe's second city's stock market, but everybody knows what I mean).

The economy has to slow down. The citizens know that their money won't worth the same tomorrow and they rush to the shops to spend whatever they have in their pockets. This demand cause the shopkeepers to raise the prices to their liking. If minimum wage increases by 30%, they increase the prices 50%. Because there's no price stability. Everyone is in craze and buying stuff without thinking. This behavior corrupts the shop-owners. There are huge price differences for the same products among the sellers. The smidgen of business ethics that they had has eroded thanks to the never-ending wage increase-inflation loop. The interest rates should be hiked till the water clears and the prices stabilize.

If you were a businessman with capital, you would have to be insane to invest in this environment. Why would you setup a factory and go through all that hassle and risk your capital when you can earn huge sums of money just by buying stuff(land, residence, fleet of cars etc.), storing and later selling. It's even better if they can take out loans cheaper than inflation rate. That's effectively, giving them the license to print money.

This DUMB experiment has to stop. What I fear is that because of the incoming local-elections, Erdogan will interfere and remove the head of CB and the minister of economy for in favor of his "unorthodox" views of economy.

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1677355197050355712

Food prices around the world (red line is Turkish). At the same time, taxes on some goods up by 20%. As it is every year for years now, most difficult years are ahead of the country.

 

[Bozan]

Potentially huge problem in the future if this is widespread.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678338789440118785

 

[I_Love_F16]

Potentially huge problem in the future if this is widespread.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678338789440118785

Unfortunately this was meant to happen :/

 

[fushkee]

We have got over the bad days. We are waiting for the worse days.

 

[Glass🚬]

Potentially huge problem in the future if this is widespread.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678338789440118785

Kinda amusing because there is a massive brain drain happening in germany as well.

 

[what]

Kinda amusing because there is a massive brain drain happening in germany as well.

The issue is Germans move abroad, are replaced by Eastern Europeans and Turkish academics and skilled professionals.

Our citizens move to Germany but we dont pull any talent from anywhere. Just refugees that would like to leave to Europe too.

 

[Bozan]

The issue is Germans move abroad, are replaced by Eastern Europeans and Turkish academics and skilled professionals.

Our citizens move to Germany but we dont pull any talent from anywhere. Just refugees that would like to leave to Europe too.

The demographic that stays is the demographic that is more favourable to Erdoganism and thus talent does not return.

 

[Glass🚬]

The issue is Germans move abroad, are replaced by Eastern Europeans and Turkish academics and skilled professionals.

Our citizens move to Germany but we dont pull any talent from anywhere. Just refugees that would like to leave to Europe too.

Its not just germans but migrants in the 2nd/3rd gen as well and the academics that move here dont stay long and leave shortly after, often times after a year already lol The eastern euros worker is true but I have never seen actually Turkish academics moving here but if the folks in turkey believe that almanya is the land of milk and honey then so let it be lol

On the grand scheme of things lets put it this wae, if u want to make money there are better options elsewhere.

 

[what]

Its not just germans but migrants in the 2nd/3rd gen as well and the academics that move here dont stay long and leave shortly after, often times after a year already lol The eastern euros worker is true but I have never seen actually Turkish academics moving here but if the folks in turkey believe that almanya is the land of milk and honey then so let it be lol

On the grand scheme of things lets put it this wae, if u want to make money there are better options elsewhere.

Story time.
Don't know where you live, but Berlin is full of them, easy to spot. Usually Erasmus students that stay for jobs in the so called new economy.
In Stuttgart, where I'm also frequently for business, plenty of them in Engineering positions at Bosch, Mercedes or even Mahle. Here in my area in NRW not so much, but I once took someone with my car who studied at RWTH Aachen and had a job offer at Ford in Cologne.

Another girl stayed with my mum until she found her own apartment and now found an American-Turkish boyfriend and is moving to the US. That girl has really worked her way up. So from my personal experience and the asylum applications, the numbers are high. No longer in the age where I meet that young people regularly, so just my 2cents.

Not saying that Germany is the gold standard, because once you're here you realize that half of your wage is gone but money is not everything.

 

[YeşilVatan]

... money is not everything.

This.

If you are a standard urban middle class Turk, you are one of the most exploited and humiliated groups on earth.

Get sick? Hospitals are shit and the system is overwhelmed. You go and wait your turn while Abdurrezzak Al Tantuni's 3rd wife goes in for her fully paid treatement. They also get ahead of you in line because she is pregnant with her 5th child.

Wanna take your girlfriend for a walk along the coast because something that will cause you grief is guaranteed to happen. Gypsies will try to force-sell you flowers, Syrians will make noise, Afghans and Pakistanis will harass your girlfriend. People are limited to cafés because those are safe places. Braindead AKP uncles always point to how Starbucks' are full, but they don't even consider this. Those coffee houses are full because you can't enjoy your time on the street. You have to buy your piece of mind. That's if you can afford to sit in a café.

Drug use is a wild problem that everyone ignores. Cocaine is spreading like wildfire among the rich, while even small towns now have a few crackheads. I remember how widespread marjuana was back in 2015-16 in one of the most prestigous universities of the country.

Prostitution is everywhere. From OF thots to girls financing their university costs to human-trafficked foreigners. The most socially conservative government is also the government that let this catastrophe happen. Milletin namusunu mezata çıkardılar.

You can't even sleep a good night's sleep because some idiot will HOOOONK at 3 a.m.

If you have an encounter with the justice system, you can have 1st hand information on how dysfunctional it is. Punishments are not enough. Law enforcement doen't really try if they aren't feeling the pressure of social media. If you have a problem with a person who is connected (i.e. rich AKPian) you can forget getting compenssation for anything ever.

And while on the topic of nepotism, constantly seeing unqualified people leeching off others and living in luxury is mentally taxing in itself. I swear I get a downright murderous rage when I see these shisha bar 'kısa parliament' perfectly rimmed beard with skinny trousers types. "My dad is in construction" No you idiot your dad is milking the public by making underhanded deals with politicians and stealing contracts. These people should be put to work in a cobalt mine, indefinitely.

And the last point: you will probably have shit working conditions. Especially in the private sector. They will give you the least but expect you to do the most. You won't be allowed to turn off your phone or go out of town even if it's only for a day. They will make you work extra hours but not pay it. Your social life will gradually diminish to a very minimum or to zero.

Türkiye is not a good place to live in, it is not a good place to raise a family, it is not a place where hardworking, law abiding people flourish.

By the mace of Murad IV, we need falaka and hangings and we need them now.

 

[Heartbang]

It seems like Seymour Hersh has stumbled upon into some spicy

Joe Biden got what he needed before the NATO summit this week by somehow turning Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan inside out and getting him to rebuff Vladimir Putin by announcing that he would support NATO membership for Sweden. The public story for Biden’s face-saving coup was talk about agreeing to sell American F-16 fighter bombers to Turkey.

I have been told a different, secret story about Erdogan’s turnabout: Biden promised that a much-needed $11-13 billion line of credit would be extended to Turkey by the International Monetary Fund.

FEAR AND LOATHING ON AIR FORCE ONE

Biden’s anxieties over the Ukraine War and the election in 2024 come into view

seymourhersh.substack.com

 

[Anastasius]

Hersh's story makes more sense. F-16s wouldn't have been nearly enough especially since certain US lobby groups are already trying to put obstacles in the way.

That being said even $13 billion is a relatively modest sum in the grand scheme of things. It will save Erdogan for what, maybe two years?

 

[Heartbang]

It will save Erdogan for what, maybe two years?

To the conclusion of local elections. After that, he'll go after those "structural reforms". He gotta.