contricusc
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It was a combination of both. If they were not involved in Ukraine, they would have had a much sronger deterrence and Azerbaidjan would have had second thoughts about the war. But since Russia was already struggling in Ukraine, the Azeris knew they won’t be able to help Armenia, so they took advantage of Russia’s weakness. The lack of will from Russia’s part had its roots in its inability to fight on another front, after the difficulty it was already facing in Ukraine, and the need to not anger Turkey, as Russia was already isolated politically after the Ukraine invasion. Things are interlinked, and Russia’s weakness caused by the war in Ukraine puts it in a position where it is unable to help any of its allies.
