Live Conflict Israel-US vs Iran War (2026)

[contricusc]

Someone from Trump's inner circle could tell him about the strategic value of Gibraltar
Or about the beauty of the Canary Islands

While it may sound far fatched now, I think that if Europe doesn’t gets its act together when it comes to defense, and if Trump’s regime manages to remain in power in the US, things could get ugly in the Atlantic.

I think Trumpists could set their eyes on European islands in the Atlantic. They already want Greenland, so why wouldn’t they want Iceland, Canary Islands, the Azores, Falkland, Cabo Verde, etc.

They could take everything in the name of “national security”.

It’s crazy to see so many European leaders still thinking the US is their ally. At this point, the US is a bigger threat to Europe than Russia, because Russia is going to be defeated soon, but the US is extremely powerful.

 

[contricusc]

Time for the Europeans to start thinking of switching to a defence alliance that does not include the US as a member, I think. Of course such an alliance will be much weaker than NATO but an alliance in which member countries are not permitted to pursue their own foreign policy is a pretty useless alliance to its members.

NATO is already dead. As long as the US is inside, the credibility is zero. When one of the biggest threats to NATO members is a NATO member itself, what does it say about the alliance?

Europe needs to do its own NATO, to defend against the US. This is where future threats will come from.

 

[Huelague]

I hope that won't happen. The strait of Gibraltar is only 9 miles wide. I don't want the US navy blockading the strait, paralysing Europe-Asia trade until the king of Spain goes to Washington to kiss the king of America's feet.

Dont forget the Suez chanal. If strait of Gibraltar is closed, US would lost mediterannean.

 

[Spitfire9]

IMF has raised its forecast for 2026 GDP growth in Russia. To me that signals an elevated average price for crude in 2026. The IMF sees a conclusion to the Iran crisis soon as unlikely?

IMF Raises Russia GDP Forecast to 1.1% in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Russia to 1.1% from January's estimate of 0.8%, due to higher oil and other commodity prices resulting from the Middle East crisis. The new 1.1% growth forecast for 2026 is slightly higher than the 1%...

tradingeconomics.com

 

[4MikeEcho]

Even if it were possible what would be the consequences for Spain or Nato?
Spain would just continue as usual as they are the least threatened Country.
The US would just continue to alienate friends and Allies destroying 80 Years of foreign policy.

It also happens to be one of the countries that the US has a trade surplus with.

Italy also declined landing rights for US aircraft at Sigonella.

US can treat them as if they are not in NATO, and I agree for sake of one country (Israel), it will alienate all the other countries it actually does trade with, vs. subsidize its existence.

 

[4MikeEcho]

In today's world it is, one way or another.

What truly matters is the size of your nations gun, everything else is noise and can be changed.

We are seeing the size of the gun has its limitations. GCC countries got no protection from having the 'gun' on their soil.

And US short term use of overwhelming force for a guaranteed outcome has also made the limitations of the national gun more obvious

 

[Passenger]

IMF has raised its forecast for 2026 GDP growth in Russia. To me that signals an elevated average price for crude in 2026. The IMF sees a conclusion to the Iran crisis soon as unlikely?

IMF Raises Russia GDP Forecast to 1.1% in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Russia to 1.1% from January's estimate of 0.8%, due to higher oil and other commodity prices resulting from the Middle East crisis. The new 1.1% growth forecast for 2026 is slightly higher than the 1%...

tradingeconomics.com

The damage of oil production facilities need years to get repaired.
Japan/Korea factories are reducing production capacity.
India is buying fertilizers at high prices.