Navy Turkish Aircraft Carrier Project

Costin84

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The main reason for the long construction period is the desire to be equipped with domestic weapons and systems. 75% of the I class frigate is produced domestically. This is even beyond imaginary in some countries.
I'm not disputing it, just pointing out that those 2 countries have immense shipbuilding capacity.....by 2027, Italy for example will roll out 8-10 PPA s(light frigates) 2 FREMM s,and 1 destroyer....
 

Melkor

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Do you even know the extent of their Navies or capacity to build?. By the time 4 I class frigates are done( 2027) the Italians will build 10!! Frigates....
I do know. This was not about build capacity more about ambitions and vision.
 

Zafer

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The AC project is more than an idea because SSB stated that charged institute (STM), SSB and force are preparing a detailed feasibility study to determine Which aircrafts will be used, What should be the size of AC compared to equivalents and How large the carrier strike group should be formed...etc. According to Mr. Güleryüz from SSB, It will take much more than 4 years for construction, trials and delivery to Navy. It is understood from this statements that Turkish AC project will be materialized not before than 2030.
It all depends on how much you want it.
 

Yasar_TR

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It all depends how large the Turkish economy is by 2030 and beyond. Technologically, it is achievable by Turkey.
Turkish economy size is something no one can envisage. In 2013 GDP of Turkey was 950 billion dollars. At that time it was expected that by 2023 GDP would be around 2 trillion dollars. But the reality is that GDP of Turkey, last year in 2020, was 650 billion dollars. In 7 years it had shrunk by a third.
Until we become economically independent, no one can guess the GDP of Turkey!
So for me an Aircraft Carrier is a pipe dream We can not afford to have at this moment in time.
 

Zafer

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Turkish economy size is something no one can envisage. In 2013 GDP of Turkey was 950 billion dollars. At that time it was expected that by 2023 GDP would be around 2 trillion dollars. But the reality is that GDP of Turkey, last year in 2020, was 650 billion dollars. In 7 years it had shrunk by a third.
Until we become economically independent, no one can guess the GDP of Turkey!
So for me an Aircraft Carrier is a pipe dream We can not afford to have at this moment in time.
That's because you disregard what plays a bigger role in economy.
When domestic resources are bound to play a bigger role you want to look at the GDP corrected for Purchasing Power Parity. Which corrects the purchasing power by the costs of good and labor in the local market. Thus Indians can go to space for a fraction of the cost it takes Americans to do so.

Same for Turkey: you can take a taxi in Istanbul and travel 6 times the distance as you can travel in New York City.
 

Melkor

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Turkish economy size is something no one can envisage. In 2013 GDP of Turkey was 950 billion dollars. At that time it was expected that by 2023 GDP would be around 2 trillion dollars. But the reality is that GDP of Turkey, last year in 2020, was 650 billion dollars. In 7 years it had shrunk by a third.
Until we become economically independent, no one can guess the GDP of Turkey!
So for me an Aircraft Carrier is a pipe dream We can not afford to have at this moment in time.
The PPP data looks good though... :)
 

Costin84

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That's because you disregard what plays a bigger role in economy.
When domestic resources are bound to play a bigger role you want to look at the GDP corrected for Purchasing Power Parity. Which corrects the purchasing power by the costs of good and labor in the local market. Thus Indians can go to space for a fraction of the cost it takes Americans to do so.

Same for Turkey: you can take a taxi in Istanbul and travel 6 times the distance as you can travel in New York City.
Actually, nominal, PPP are just theories....it all comes down on the money you Actually have ....Turkey has a national budget of 180 billion $ ....that is your per year allowance. Romania, the 2nd most poorest nation in the EU has 90 billion per year,4.2 times less the population.
Things, or more importantly, military things, don't come cheaper in Turkey either, see the price tag on the Altay thank.....It's hard to have an AC with a GDP per capita less than Bulgaria, unless you have 1.3 billion population which makes your poverty into a decent defence budget by sheer number alone.

Btw, 8 years ago Erdogan promised a 2 trillion $ economy by 2023,I remember peoplr scourning me on how Turkey will overtake Italy by than,France would fall victim by 2028,Spain would have thrown the towel allready in 2019....

Any fresh news on that front?
 
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Yasar_TR

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That's because you disregard what plays a bigger role in economy.
When domestic resources are bound to play a bigger role you want to look at the GDP corrected for Purchasing Power Parity. Which corrects the purchasing power by the costs of good and labor in the local market. Thus Indians can go to space for a fraction of the cost it takes Americans to do so.

Same for Turkey: you can take a taxi in Istanbul and travel 6 times the distance as you can travel in New York City.
Nominal GDP and PPP adjusted GDP are two different ways of looking at the wealth of a country. Nominal GDP is the real indicator of national wealth. Not PPP based one.
If you close your eyes to the rest of the world and just look at your domestic purchasing power, GDP with Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) will look high. So you pay 10 dollars in Turkey and travel 6 times more distance than an American. But that does not retract from the fact that you are in fact 6 times poorer than that American when it comes to buying mobile phones from Korea with US dollars. Or if you are buying cotton fabric to reprocess in Turkey to sell on. You have to pay more in Turkish Liras to purchase that cotton cloth in dollars. Majority of Turkey’s manufacturing industry is based on goods imported from far east and reprocessed. Importation costs shoot up when your currency drops.
As nominal GDP drops so does your purchasing power. Turkey’s nominal GDP has dropped by 35% since 2013. With it the cost of say producing a ship has gone up in TL as well. That F515 ship was estimated to cost 300million dollars 4 years ago. It will still cost 300 million dollars Today. We just have to pay more Turkish Liras for it. Why? The steel used, was imported. Engines were imported, A lot of parts that Aselsan uses come from Far East and imported. Cranes lifting heavy parts were imported. Petrol used in manufacturing processes was imported. All paid in dollars.
forget the PPP based GDP. If you are measuring wealth of a country, look at their nominal GDP.
 
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KKF 2.0

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Nominal GDP and PPP adjusted GDP are two different ways of looking at the wealth of a country. Nominal GDP is the real indicator of national wealth. Not PPP based one.
If you close your eyes to the rest of the world and just look at your domestic purchasing power, GDP with Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) will look high. So you pay 10 dollars in Turkey and travel 6 times more distance than an American. But that does not retract from the fact that you are in fact 6 times poorer than that American when it comes to buying mobile phones from Korea with US dollars. Or if you are buying cotton fabric to reprocess in Turkey to sell on. You have to pay more in Turkish Liras to purchase that cotton cloth in dollars. Majority of Turkey’s manufacturing industry is based on goods imported from far east and reprocessed. Importation costs shoot up when your currency drops.
As nominal GDP drops so does your purchasing power. Turkey’s nominal GDP has dropped by 35% since 2013. With it the cost of say producing a ship has gone up in TL as well. That F515 ship was estimated to cost 300million dollars 4 years ago. It will still cost 300 million dollars Today. We just have to pay more Turkish Liras for it. Why? The steel used, was imported. Engines were imported, A lot of parts that Aselsan uses come from Far East and imported. Cranes lifting heavy parts were imported. Petrol used in manufacturing processes was imported. All paid in dollars.
forget the PPP based GDP. If you are measuring wealth of a country, look at their nominal GDP.
You have a point but if you produce your weapons locally PPP becomes indeed a very important factor.

You have to understand that going indigenous is not only about acquiring knowledge and technology, it does put you in a position where you can afford more quantity and quality in general.
 

Zafer

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If you are measuring wealth of a country, look at their nominal GDP.
When a high percentage of the cost is in local currency it is more realistic to look at how much you can buy locally. This percentage is at 75+% now, it will be at around 85% when the ship is built.
 

Melkor

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6700 Tonne Italian Andria Doria Destroyer: USD 730M (EU 590M) - USD 108K / Tonne
3500 Tonne USS Freedom LCS: USD 360M - USD 102 / Tonne
2400 Tonne TCG Heybeliada Corvette: USD 260M - USD 108K / Tonne
 

Deliorman

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Some people don’t have 50 Liras in their pockets but dream of buying a Mercedes Benz like the big boys. The house they are living in is crumbling on their heads but they dream of how Adriana Lima will gladly suck their d**k someday after they get rich and powerful- so instead of getting their shit together and be realistic they waste their last money on lottery tickets in hope of hitting the jackpot.

You guys are high on heroin or something... Better come back to Earth and have a quick reality check instead of aiming for the stars you can’t reach.

I also want Turkey to be a Superpower and to have 10 Nuclear aircraft carrier groups with all the destroyers, Submarines, Planes and bombs you can imagine so we can fuck everyone we want from Singapore to Panama and beyond but Turkey is not America and is not even half of Italy and South Korea economically. Seeing how Turkey is it won’t get much better anytime soon so why don’t you guys be REALISTIC for once instead of believing in your fantasies and fairytales.

Instead of wasting time and resources on chasing stupid dreams Turkey better gets its shit together economically and spend it’s dwindling budget on doing everything to secure the seas around it first. Turkey needs more frigates, corvettes, fast attack boats and submarines and all the firepower you can imagine NOW.
 
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MASA

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Remember . Germany had 1968 a nuclear powered research ship. The OTTO HAHN. If you want an AC with electromagnetic catapults, Laser and EM guns you need a almost unlimited energy source. With assistance of Russia a military mini nuke reactor for propulsion could be realized.
 

Anmdt

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It is ready to be filled by TCG Türkiye
havuz.jpg
Lol Those green hangars can not supply steel production demand of such a vessel.
Not even mentioning possible cranes to be installed won't on par with it. It is nothing but a perfect repair maintenance shipyard.
TCG Vatan sounds better :)
 

Anmdt

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The names may be different when the project is officially commenced but It will be a multi-purposse frigate with 4000-4500ton displacement. @anmdt
Based on hearings and guesses, preliminary studies of TF-2000 (4000-5000t) will fruit in such a vessel. To replace Barbaros class.
 

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Your defemce industry becoming self sustained, with couple of more deals like milgem class with pakistan, air carrier wont be burden, actually it will become necessity to facilitate those assests with friendly navies trough joint exercises and further power projections, it is ridicoulous to observe it from current perspective and conditions. If some of you were advisors of Gazi Mehmed you would still walk around Constantinopol walls.
 
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Yasar_TR

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When a high percentage of the cost is in local currency it is more realistic to look at how much you can buy locally. This percentage is at 75+% now, it will be at around 85% when the ship is built.
How much of that 75% is actually imported. have a look at that too. Energy consumed to produce that 75% is imported. Say, Aselsan makes the Aesa radar (100% made by Aselsan). But have a look in side what they have used. Mostly electronics and chips and boards that came from China or Taiwan. In other words imported with dollars. Machines that make those parts were also Imported. The energy used in those machines were also imported. People that make those radars get pay increases too.
That is why a ship estimated to cost 200 million in 2013 still costs 200 million dollars to make.
 

Yasar_TR

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You have a point but if you produce your weapons locally PPP becomes indeed a very important factor.

You have to understand that going indigenous is not only about acquiring knowledge and technology, it does put you in a position where you can afford more quantity and quality in general.
I am fully behind indigenously produced weapons. A country like Turkey that has financial constraints and limited resources can not afford to waste money and valuable foreign currency in buying weapons.
But PPP is only good if you are not dependent on foreign imports. Therefore effects of high PPP based GDP is short lived.
Look at Turkeys exports and imports in the last year. 167 billion dollars exports and 210 billion dollars imports. The country lives on imported goods. The deficit has to be paid by tourism income and out of taxpayers‘ pockets or by borrowing.
Look at India ; Nominal GDP is 2.6 trillion dollars. But PPP adjusted GDP is 8.7 trillion dollars.
Look at Japan: Nominal GDP is 4.9 trillion dollars. But PPP adjusted GDP is 5.2 trillion dollars.
Do you really think India is richer than Japan?
Real sign of wealth is the measure of your Nominal GDP.
 

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There seems to be some conflation between relevance of:

1) GDP (nominal, USD , current)
2) GDP (nominal, USD, constant)
3) GDP (PPP, USD "international", current/constant)

w.r.t their applicability for things like production, consumption, industry and so on....all the way down to specific project like say space launcher development or aircraft carrier acquisition between say country A and country B.

Each of (1,2,3) all have their individual merit and weakness for such comparison, scope of which will take too long to get into the required depth for every economic sector.

Suffice to say the specific relevance (of harnessing optimal opportunity cost and scarcity of resources i.e the very definition/objective of Economics) depends on the foreign reliance (for supply) of something versus local provision (for supply) of something....in % terms of everything that goes into (the subject matter at question).

If a country has certain number of trained professionals and resources that are organised over long time to develop and deliver a certain product and largely localised in supply chains and component creation, it is not really a question of strict GDP USD nominal applying to this....or even PPP with argument that "labour is cheaper" as though these people involved in such sector consume and live less and are "cheaper" to hire than their counterparts in some more USD-flush and USD-integrated country.

That is not how it works at all I am afraid....it is more a case of opportunity cost for such sectors relative to others...largely using the local currency budgeting and other scarcity metrics.

India simply put in the hard work right from the 1970s to develop a certain space launch capability because it knew it needed it for both military and civilian application.

It was not made with the intent to trade on open market, that is just added benefit that came with time in the market place of a globalised integrated competitive world.

Just like if you initially invested a lot into your population's education and training for doing specific things in closed economy, once the economy opens....it will get better USD (world) referencing naturally over time. India is in process of doing this still given its size, so its not really optimal to compare lower tier bulk macro economy references to spearhead tiers of innovation (like space, defence, nuclear etc) until the macro economy is more saturated/integrated with world supply chains....i.e more "developed".

i.e foreign launch marketing makes a tiny portion of ISRO operation and budget (USD liquidity by direct trade with others). USD trade w.r.t Indian economy is still quite small too compared to Indian economy on top. But the results of each ISRO launch is there to see....i.e the qualitative referencing. This is all what leads to Indian launch being "cheap" due to surplus rupees w.r.t USD need in other parts of the economy....that influence the exchange rate far far more.

So it is faulty to apply (1) and say Indian labour is "cheap" as though such labour in this field is so easily developed and easily flexible to compare on basis of millions and billions of other regular transactions/trades of far more mundane nature.

In that respect (2) and (3) would be better reference points ....as indexed inflation is far more domineering on Indian local price levels than exchange rate (esp for fairly non-exchange rate reliant activity)...but they are still far from ideal for this purpose.

Similarly for Turkey, for an aircraft carrier project....you cannot simply look at (1) and say automatically its too low to achieve it.

It would depend how much of the aircraft carrier comes from internal Turkish know-how, resources and labour (and the opportunity cost of deploying it here compared to another development).

If a large part of it needs to be imported or needs import flow then (1) becomes dominant.

If a large part of it can be done locally and does not need much import flow then (2) and (3) become more dominant reference points.

Then of course you have to look at further opportunity cost past just GDP (an overrated macro measure that is not highly relevant for individual projects)...things like fiscal buffer, govt budget, raw technical manpower availability, specific capacities (i.e in this case no. of shipyard spaces and existing committed order book etc).

I am not a Turkish Navy planner, but I at first glance at Turkish navy current profile would rather go for far more frigates and submarines before even LHD/LPD (and I would use all my local shipyard capacity to Rnd these 2 and just buy a LHD or two if I really need that).

Critical capacity use must always always always be looked at as a great opportunity cost past just the budget itself....as if you tie up a shipyard space (time-wise) for a LPD for say same final price/final time as 2 frigates....but the 2 frigates gives you 2 - 3 times of the relevant power level you need to project....it is best to use the local shipyards for the latter as priority and 2nd priority would be LPD/LHD (and maybe look at import if you really need it as well). Cost of setting up new shipyard and training workforces also comes into all these equations.

I would avoid aircraft carrier altogether till cpl decades down road....till Turkey internal finances are much more robust. Again this has little to do with nominal USD GDP if the know how and resource is already within Turkey (And if it need lot of importing, then USD GDP definitely factors in as it would be trade that needs to go through it, as Lira needs to be converted to USD for this effectively).

But if knowhow + capacity is localised + available for argument sake... it is more case of govt budget/fiscal pressure (in local Turkish Lira) and opportunity cost w.r.t production of other kinds of ships for Turkish Navy at those shipyards instead.

It would need a sound reading of Turkish naval strategy till 2050 I suppose. That is not something I know much about.
 

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