Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Gary]

sigh.....that is not the same photo you provided earlier that was blurred.

its from the same video though

 

[blackjack]

its from the same video though

than it wouldn't be that difficult to screenshot the video being unblurred. To be honest, I have already lost interest and dont care anymore about debating rather if the aircraft is ukrainian or russian when I have telegram and twittter channels that show me more destroyed ukrainian aircraft this week than deciding if that one aircraft is russian or ukrainian among the other ukrainian equipment that got destroyed. Whatever let's say its Ukrainian, I dont care anymore i will just continue posting here the war updates.

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622236209140453377

 

[blackjack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622688665406214167

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622687658827780112

 

[blackjack]

 

[blackjack]

 

[500]

spreading propaganda

You just take Russian propaganda and spam here non stop. You alone make more posts than all others combined.

heh thats funny hearing that coming from you of all people if you know what I mean. Wants Ukraien is over i hope your country is next when the Palestinians, Syrians and other middle eastern countries get assisted against your apartheid state.

Arabs in Israel have average life expectancy of 79 years, while average life expectancy in Russia is 71.3 (lower than Bangladesh).

We have hundreds of Arabic schools, all state documents are translated to Arabic, Arabic road signs, TV shows and more. Do you have anything such in Ukrainian language?

 

[blackjack]

You just take Russian propaganda and spam here non stop. You alone make more posts than all others combined.

users here usually make 3 posts, i just do it with 5 tweets to cover everything that is going on.

Arabs in Israel have average life expectancy of 79 years, while average life expectancy in Russia is 71.3 (lower than Bangladesh).

We have hundreds of Arabic schools, all state documents are translated to Arabic, Arabic road signs, TV shows and more. Do you have anything such in Ukrainian language?

How are the settlements going in Gaza?

 

[MaciekRS]

View attachment 53741
Overall, I don't think I would be mad if western Ukraine becomes a part of Poland.

russians from the start of the war are trying and trying and still trying to put Poland and Ukraine against each other for some things from WWII and its still going nowhere
The truth is we dont want any part of Ukraine (WHY, we dont care about a land as you do, so dont campare US to YOU). We only want to russia be gone once for all

 

[GoatsMilk]

russians from the start of the war are trying and trying and still trying to put Poland and Ukraine against each other for some things from WWII and its still going nowhere
The truth is we dont want any part of Ukraine (WHY, we dont care about a land as you do, so dont campare US to YOU). We only want to russia be gone once for all

I'm fairly ignorant of polish/ukrainian cultural connections/history and what not. But it doesnt seem crazy to me that Poland and Ukraine may think to form one nation in the future, it may be the best way to hedge yourselves against Germany/Russian power.

Looking at the historic Polish/Litianian common wealth, it doesnt seem that crazy that such things could occur in the future. Usually geopolitical pressure create realities on the ground.

The EU and NATO may exist today, but they wont always exist.

 

[busdriver]

I'm fairly ignorant of polish/ukrainian cultural connections/history and what not. But it doesnt seem crazy to me that Poland and Ukraine may think to form one nation in the future, it may be the best way to hedge yourselves against Germany/Russian power.

Looking at the historic Polish/Litianian common wealth, it doesnt seem that crazy that such things could occur in the future. Usually geopolitical pressure create realities on the ground.

The EU and NATO may exist today, but they wont always exist.

Well, I don't think that merging Poland and Ukraine into one state - let alone a nation - is feasible. Quite frankly,imho, it's just impossible. Poland and Ukraine are two completely separate nations with difficult, complex history and strong identities. Although geopolitical pressure can bring them closer together, they won't form any kind of union or federation. It didn't work with Czechoslovakia although Czechia and Slovakia had similar languages and folk cultures and it won't certainly work with Poland and Ukraine.

 

[Relic]

What's next when it comes to the supply of Western armor to Ukraine? Let's take a look at what's likely left in Western inventories that could be announced and delivered to Ukraine no later than the summer months of 2023. We'll go country by country and the goal is not to find every piece of a equipment, rather, to find the armor that could make a difference.

USA: The Americans still have north of 2000 Bradley IFVs in storage and we can expect more to be announced. They'll be sent to Germany in packages that align with 500 strong battalions of soldiers that will rotate into Germany every 4-5 weeks to be trained on them. Another 100 or so Bradley's should be announced soon, accompanied by another 90-100 Stryker APCs. Meanwhile, Expect another artillery brigade of 18, M109A6 Paladin self propelled howitzers to be announced as well. The U.S. will continue to supply as many HMMWVs as Ukraine wants / needs and they have thousands more MRAPS of various types that that can be sent as well. Don't expect many more Abrams tanks to be announced in the near future as the Abrams will be used to backfill Allies who continue to give up their own tanks.

Canada: The Canadians don't have much more they can send right now, so the best thing they can do is continue to use their funds to procure items such as ammunition, from third party countries that wish to tell it. It's unlikely that Canada will send any of its LAV 6.0 IFVs, but I think you can expect to see another small donation (possibly 4-6 more) of their Leopard 2A4 tanks. Of course, they're also in the process of delivering approximately 200 more Roshel Senator, infantry mobility vehicles, which will largely be used by Ukrainian boarder defenders.

Germany: The Germans have quite a bit more armor they can send, it's simply a matter of how long it takes to get it ready to be shipped. Germany has already pledged 40 Marder IFVs and it's likely they could get another 40-50 ready to be shipped, if the political will is there to do so. Private industry has stated that they have 80+ Leopard 1 tanks that can be sent as well, but they have to be refurbished first. As far as Leopard 2A6 tanks, Germany has about 240 left after the 14 that they've already committed. They could likely volunteer another 14 (a company) and backfill their own forces by pulling existing tanks out of storage and refurbishing them for service to Germany. Beyond that, Germany likely has another 20+ Leopard 2A4 models that could be upgraded from storage and sent to Ukraine. Don't expect Germany to send any more artillery than what they've already committed. Keep in mind that they sold Ukraine 100 Panzerhaubtize 2000s and 18 RCH-155s, but none will likely be ready to be shipped this year.

Britain: The British have committed a lot of the army stock that they can to this point. Keep in mind that they committed 14 Challenger tanks, 30 AS-90 self propelled howitzers and dozens more Bulldog APCs recently. Could they spare a few more tanks? Probably, but not without getting uncomfortably low. What the British have yet to commit to the war effort, however, are their Warrior IFVs that they are in the process of replacing. The Brits have north of 700 of the Warriors and a donation of 50'ish of them seems likely at some point in the conflict, to support the Bradleys, Marders and CV90s that have been committed.

Poland: It's obvious that the Poles are sending as much as it can to Ukraine and being aggressive in upgrading it's Army with new inventory. Poland is likely maxed out in terms of artillery and IFVs that it can afford to send, but what the Poles do still have are some T-72 tanks and PT-91 Twardy tanks. We recently saw them announce 30 more T-72s and 30 PT-91s for Ukraine, but it's likely that they could send another 100+ (mostly PT-91s) if the Americans were willing to backfill them with M1A1 and M1A2 Abrams tanks in the immediacy. Poland has ordered 250 of the newest Abrams, but would likely be willing to send a good majority of its PT-91s to Ukraine if they Americans would lone them a similar number of Abrams, until their brand new ones are ready to go. The Americans have plenty of Abrams in storage to make that work.

Netherlands: The Dutch lease 18 Leopard 2A6 tanks from Germany and it's rumoured that they will buy them and ship them to Ukraine. We'll see if that comes to fruition. On top of that, the Netherlands have 15 FH-70 towed howitzers in storage. Estonia, France and Italy have already donated those howitzer types to Ukraine. The Dutch could easily send theirs as well, given that their primary howitzers are Panzerhautize 2000s. Lastly, the Netherlands have 44 CV90 IFVs in storage. Given that Sweden has already committed 50 of them to the war effort and its a platform that Ukraine intends to use, the Netherlands could afford to send some number (maybe 20 or so) of their stored CV90s to supplement the Swedish donation.

France: The French have approximately 400 Leclerc tanks. They could definitely afford to send 2 companies of them (28 tanks) if the Ukrainians want yet another platform joining the war effort. I'm not convinced the French will send them, but they definitely can afford it, given that they have 184 of them in storage, out of active service for the time being. They've already sent an unknown number of VAB APCs but they have roughly 2500 of them. They easily could send 50-100 more given that they're being replaced anyways. As for AMX10-RCR tank destroyers, they've pledged 40 of them to Ukraine already, and could probably send 20 more if they deem them to be effective.

Czech Republic: The Czechs received 15 Leopard 2A4 tanks from Germany in a ring exchange previously. Those tanks are likely to be delivered to Ukraine instead as the Czechs continue their effort. However, the greatest contribution to the Ukrainian war effort will continue to be their renovation of T-72 tanks from various countries, sending them to Ukraine in small batches as they're procured. In total, I expect more than 100+ T-72s to go to Ukraine this year, via the Czech Republic. The Czechs also still have small quantities of surplus BMP-1s and BMP-2s, but not in substantial, difference making quantities that could be send to Ukraine.

Slovakia: The Slovaks, like the Czechs, received 15 Leopard 2A4 tanks from Germany in a ring exchange, early in the conflict. I expect those 15 to end up in Ukraine as well, along with the Czechs tanks. Beyond that, Slovakia continues to build Zuzanna 2 howitzers for Ukraine, but is otherwise tapped out in terms of heavy armor that it can afford to send.

Italy: What the Italians are unlikely to send are tanks, IFVs and modern APCs. What they do have an can continue to send, however, are howitzers. They likely can spare another 12 FH=70 towed Howitzers and they're rumoured to be refurbishing some 20 previously retired, M109 self propelled howitzers. Expect those to be sent Ukraine quietly, but in short order.

Spain: The Spaniards have a large quantity of Leopard 2A4 tanks in service and in storage, but many of them are in poor repair. There were rumours that Spain could send 50+ tanks to the war effort, but more realistically, I think they'll manage to send approximately 20 of them in fairly short order, with possibly 10-15 more that will be repaired over the coming months and sent prior to the end of 2023.

Norway: The Norwegians are likely going to donate approximately 8-10 Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine and can't afford to send any more after that. What they still can afford to send are M109A3 howitzers. They had 55 of them in storage and already sent Ukraine 22 of them, leaving 33 more. They're replacing them with South Korean made K9 Thunders anyways, so you can expect more M109s to make their way from Norway in time.

Denmark: The Danes may or may not send a very small number of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. It would likely be no more than 4 if they did, and I'm skeptical that they will at this point. They simply don't have enough of them to spare.

Portugal: Like the Danes, the Portuguese can afford to send a maximum of 4 of their Leopard 2A6 tanks to Ukraine. It appears they're likely to do so in the coming months.

Sweden: The Swedes recently donated 50 of their CV90s to Ukraine and with 499 left in service they could probably afford to send 15-20 more, but that would be them maxed out. The Swedes will likely also send approximately 10-12 of their Leopard 2 variant (Strv 122) tanks to support the Ukrainian war effort.

Finland: The Finns have a couple hundred Leopard 2A4 and A6 tanks and it's likely they'll send approximately a company of 14 of them to Ukraine. Furthermore, they've still got more than 100 BMP-2 IFVs. I expect them to send 20 or so more to Ukraine and look to backfill them by purchasing more Swedish CV90s.

Turkey: I highly doubt that the Turks will send tanks to Ukraine, although I'd love it if they did. They have hundreds of upgraded Leopard 1 tanks that are at the end of their lifespan and are about to be replaced. Instead, I think they'll supply the remainder of the 200 Kirpi APCs that they've already committed. Turkey is quietly and effectively supplying Ukraine with quantities of ammunition, artillery rounds, Bayraktar drones and associated missiles and some rocket artillery. Expect those quiet donations to continue.

Greece: Very similar to Turkey, the Greeks have lots of Leopards, but I doubt that they will be willing to send any to Ukraine in the short term. Also like the Turks, they'll continue to send military equipment quietly, away from the media, but it's unlikely to be heavy armor.

Australia: The Aussies don't have a lot more they can send at this point, but their Bushmaster is still an excellent APC and it wouldn't shocked me if they send another 30+ to supplement the 90 they've already sent.

Morocco: For the Moroccans this continues to be a story in progress. They've already sent approximately 20 T-72 tanks to Ukraine, but they have approximately 150 more in service. They want to send them to the Czech Republic for upgrades prior to being shipped to Ukraine, but they want the Americans to backfill them with Abrams tanks, which they also currently use, prior to parting with all of their T-72s. I suspect that this deal will get done and the announced 90 tanks from Czech Republic, paid for by USA and the Netherlands, will likely be closer to 200 T-72s by time all is said and done.

Cyprus: The Cypriots have 80+ T-80U tanks that they want to replace. Here is the catch. They're willing to send them to Ukraine, but only in exchange for a negotiated number of Leopard 2 tanks and they want those Leopard 2s from Greece, because they think they can receive them in short order. Whether or not this deal actually gets done depends on how many tanks they'll want from Greece and whether Greece can backfill their Leopard 2 stocks from somebody else.

Everybody that I didn't mention is either tapped out of armor that they can send to Ukraine, or in cases such as Israel, South Korea and Japan, is unlikely to volunteer that type of equipment to the war effort.

 

[Afif]

What's next when it comes to the supply of Western armor to Ukraine? Let's take a look at what's likely left in Western inventories that could be announced and delivered to Ukraine no later than the summer months of 2023. We'll go country by country and the goal is not to find every piece of a equipment, rather, to find the armor that could make a difference.

USA: The Americans still have north of 2000 Bradley IFVs in storage and we can expect more to be announced. They'll be sent to Germany in packages that align with 500 strong battalions of soldiers that will rotate into Germany every 4-5 weeks to be trained on them. Another 100 or so Bradley's should be announced soon, accompanied by another 90-100 Stryker APCs. Meanwhile, Expect another artillery brigade of 18, M109A6 Paladin self propelled howitzers to be announced as well. The U.S. will continue to supply as many HMMWVs as Ukraine wants / needs and they have thousands more MRAPS of various types that that can be sent as well. Don't expect many more Abrams tanks to be announced in the near future as the Abrams will be used to backfill Allies who continue to give up their own tanks.

Canada: The Canadians don't have much more they can send right now, so the best thing they can do is continue to use their funds to procure items such as ammunition, from third party countries that wish to tell it. It's unlikely that Canada will send any of its LAV 6.0 IFVs, but I think you can expect to see another small donation (possibly 4-6 more) of their Leopard 2A4 tanks. Of course, they're also in the process of delivering approximately 200 more Roshel Senator, infantry mobility vehicles, which will largely be used by Ukrainian boarder defenders.

Germany: The Germans have quite a bit more armor they can send, it's simply a matter of how long it takes to get it ready to be shipped. Germany has already pledged 40 Marder IFVs and it's likely they could get another 40-50 ready to be shipped, if the political will is there to do so. Private industry has stated that they have 80+ Leopard 1 tanks that can be sent as well, but they have to be refurbished first. As far as Leopard 2A6 tanks, Germany has about 240 left after the 14 that they've already committed. They could likely volunteer another 14 (a company) and backfill their own forces by pulling existing tanks out of storage and refurbishing them for service to Germany. Beyond that, Germany likely has another 20+ Leopard 2A4 models that could be upgraded from storage and sent to Ukraine. Don't expect Germany to send any more artillery than what they've already committed. Keep in mind that they sold Ukraine 100 Panzerhaubtize 2000s and 18 RCH-155s, but none will likely be ready to be shipped this year.

Britain: The British have committed a lot of the army stock that they can to this point. Keep in mind that they committed 14 Challenger tanks, 30 AS-90 self propelled howitzers and dozens more Bulldog APCs recently. Could they spare a few more tanks? Probably, but not without getting uncomfortably low. What the British have yet to commit to the war effort, however, are their Warrior IFVs that they are in the process of replacing. The Brits have north of 700 of the Warriors and a donation of 50'ish of them seems likely at some point in the conflict, to support the Bradleys, Marders and CV90s that have been committed.

Poland: It's obvious that the Poles are sending as much as it can to Ukraine and being aggressive in upgrading it's Army with new inventory. Poland is likely maxed out in terms of artillery and IFVs that it can afford to send, but what the Poles do still have are some T-72 tanks and PT-91 Twardy tanks. We recently saw them announce 30 more T-72s and 30 PT-91s for Ukraine, but it's likely that they could send another 100+ (mostly PT-91s) if the Americans were willing to backfill them with M1A1 and M1A2 Abrams tanks in the immediacy. Poland has ordered 250 of the newest Abrams, but would likely be willing to send a good majority of its PT-91s to Ukraine if they Americans would lone them a similar number of Abrams, until their brand new ones are ready to go. The Americans have plenty of Abrams in storage to make that work.

Netherlands: The Dutch lease 18 Leopard 2A6 tanks from Germany and it's rumoured that they will buy them and ship them to Ukraine. We'll see if that comes to fruition. On top of that, the Netherlands have 15 FH-70 towed howitzers in storage. Estonia, France and Italy have already donated those howitzer types to Ukraine. The Dutch could easily send theirs as well, given that their primary howitzers are Panzerhautize 2000s. Lastly, the Netherlands have 44 CV90 IFVs in storage. Given that Sweden has already committed 50 of them to the war effort and its a platform that Ukraine intends to use, the Netherlands could afford to send some number (maybe 20 or so) of their stored CV90s to supplement the Swedish donation.

France: The French have approximately 400 Leclerc tanks. They could definitely afford to send 2 companies of them (28 tanks) if the Ukrainians want yet another platform joining the war effort. I'm not convinced the French will send them, but they definitely can afford it, given that they have 184 of them in storage, out of active service for the time being. They've already sent an unknown number of VAB APCs but they have roughly 2500 of them. They easily could send 50-100 more given that they're being replaced anyways. As for AMX10-RCR tank destroyers, they've pledged 40 of them to Ukraine already, and could probably send 20 more if they deem them to be effective.

Czech Republic: The Czechs received 15 Leopard 2A4 tanks from Germany in a ring exchange previously. Those tanks are likely to be delivered to Ukraine instead as the Czechs continue their effort. However, the greatest contribution to the Ukrainian war effort will continue to be their renovation of T-72 tanks from various countries, sending them to Ukraine in small batches as they're procured. In total, I expect more than 100+ T-72s to go to Ukraine this year, via the Czech Republic. The Czechs also still have small quantities of surplus BMP-1s and BMP-2s, but not in substantial, difference making quantities that could be send to Ukraine.

Slovakia: The Slovaks, like the Czechs, received 15 Leopard 2A4 tanks from Germany in a ring exchange, early in the conflict. I expect those 15 to end up in Ukraine as well, along with the Czechs tanks. Beyond that, Slovakia continues to build Zuzanna 2 howitzers for Ukraine, but is otherwise tapped out in terms of heavy armor that it can afford to send.

Italy: What the Italians are unlikely to send are tanks, IFVs and modern APCs. What they do have an can continue to send, however, are howitzers. They likely can spare another 12 FH=70 towed Howitzers and they're rumoured to be refurbishing some 20 previously retired, M109 self propelled howitzers. Expect those to be sent Ukraine quietly, but in short order.

Spain: The Spaniards have a large quantity of Leopard 2A4 tanks in service and in storage, but many of them are in poor repair. There were rumours that Spain could send 50+ tanks to the war effort, but more realistically, I think they'll manage to send approximately 20 of them in fairly short order, with possibly 10-15 more that will be repaired over the coming months and sent prior to the end of 2023.

Norway: The Norwegians are likely going to donate approximately 8-10 Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine and can't afford to send any more after that. What they still can afford to send are M109A3 howitzers. They had 55 of them in storage and already sent Ukraine 22 of them, leaving 33 more. They're replacing them with South Korean made K9 Thunders anyways, so you can expect more M109s to make their way from Norway in time.

Denmark: The Danes may or may not send a very small number of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. It would likely be no more than 4 if they did, and I'm skeptical that they will at this point. They simply don't have enough of them to spare.

Portugal: Like the Danes, the Portuguese can afford to send a maximum of 4 of their Leopard 2A6 tanks to Ukraine. It appears they're likely to do so in the coming months.

Sweden: The Swedes recently donated 50 of their CV90s to Ukraine and with 499 left in service they could probably afford to send 15-20 more, but that would be them maxed out. The Swedes will likely also send approximately 10-12 of their Leopard 2 variant (Strv 122) tanks to support the Ukrainian war effort.

Finland: The Finns have a couple hundred Leopard 2A4 and A6 tanks and it's likely they'll send approximately a company of 14 of them to Ukraine. Furthermore, they've still got more than 100 BMP-2 IFVs. I expect them to send 20 or so more to Ukraine and look to backfill them by purchasing more Swedish CV90s.

Turkey: I highly doubt that the Turks will send tanks to Ukraine, although I'd love it if they did. They have hundreds of upgraded Leopard 1 tanks that are at the end of their lifespan and are about to be replaced. Instead, I think they'll supply the remainder of the 200 Kirpi APCs that they've already committed. Turkey is quietly and effectively supplying Ukraine with quantities of ammunition, artillery rounds, Bayraktar drones and associated missiles and some rocket artillery. Expect those quiet donations to continue.

Greece: Very similar to Turkey, the Greeks have lots of Leopards, but I doubt that they will be willing to send any to Ukraine in the short term. Also like the Turks, they'll continue to send military equipment quietly, away from the media, but it's unlikely to be heavy armor.

Australia: The Aussies don't have a lot more they can send at this point, but their Bushmaster is still an excellent APC and it wouldn't shocked me if they send another 30+ to supplement the 90 they've already sent.

Morocco: For the Moroccans this continues to be a story in progress. They've already sent approximately 20 T-72 tanks to Ukraine, but they have approximately 150 more in service. They want to send them to the Czech Republic for upgrades prior to being shipped to Ukraine, but they want the Americans to backfill them with Abrams tanks, which they also currently use, prior to parting with all of their T-72s. I suspect that this deal will get done and the announced 90 tanks from Czech Republic, paid for by USA and the Netherlands, will likely be closer to 200 T-72s by time all is said and done.

Cyprus: The Cypriots have 80+ T-80U tanks that they want to replace. Here is the catch. They're willing to send them to Ukraine, but only in exchange for a negotiated number of Leopard 2 tanks and they want those Leopard 2s from Greece, because they think they can receive them in short order. Whether or not this deal actually gets done depends on how many tanks they'll want from Greece and whether Greece can backfill their Leopard 2 stocks from somebody else.

Everybody that I didn't mention is either tapped out of armor that they can send to Ukraine, or in cases such as Israel, South Korea and Japan, is unlikely to volunteer that type of equipment to the war effort.

I just want to add my observation, at this stage it is not the platforms that I worry about, it is the ammunitions. Specially for howitzers, On which all western allies are running super low except US. And for worse, they don’t even have capacity to produce it in enough numbers In rapid enough time.

 

[Nykyus]

Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic countries are connected by a common history, this history is much longer than the history of Ukraine as part of Russia (Muscovy). For Russian, Soviet historians Stefan Batory is evil squared. But initially the Ukrainians were formed from the Tatars - Cossacks after the collapse of the Golden Horde and they had a rebellious spirit.

 

[Nykyus]

Map compiled by Tatar historians. On the territory of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania in pink, where the territory of Ukraine is marked with the Wild Field, where the Tatars roamed. The Lithuanian Tatars were called Lipka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lipka_Tatars. Part converted to Orthodoxy became known as the Cossacks.

 

[Relic]

I just want to add my observation, at this stage it is not the platforms that I worry about, it is the ammunitions. Specially for howitzers, On which all western allies are running super low except US. And for worse, they don’t even have capacity to produce it in enough numbers In rapid enough time.

Nor does Russia though. Neither party can afford to fire tens of thousands of artillery rounds every day and keep pace. Russia has already seen their fire rate decrease from 20,0000 rounds per day to 5000-7000 rounds per day and U.S. and British intelligence has noted that they're burning through their stockpiles at a much faster rate than Russian industry can replace them. This can be made a further problem by Ukraine continuing to focus on targeting Russian supply lines and ammunition depots / storage sights.

As for Ukraine, you're correct in that the Western supply of 155mm ammunition is strained and is restricting Ukraine to a fire rate of approximately 3000-5000 rounds of that type, per day. It's being supplemented by several thousand rounds of 105mm artillery and 120mm, 81mm, 82mm and 60mm mortar rounds that are highly useful against infantry waves. The West is ramping up their production, albeit at a slower initial rate. Some rough figures I've seen so far suggest that by the summer USA will be producing approximately 25,000 rounds per month (with the goal of 40,000 by 2024 and 90,000 by 2025). Canada is gearing up to produce 12,000 rounds per months and their primary manufacturer, is trying to get a longer term U.S. contract at that quantity. Germany is also going to ramp up into the 15,000-20,000 round range per month range, with the loftier goals into 2024. Britain will likely match the German initiative and France and Australia have announced a partnership for Nexter to produce undisclosed thousands of rounds in France. That's what we know so far. What we don't know is what the capacity of countries like Sweden are to ramp up production. We also know that the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Ukraine are ramping up production of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells, but we can't expect that combined effort to produce more than probably 10,000 rounds per month.

The wildcards, of course, are South Korea, Pakistan Israel and Turkey. All four countries have substantial inventories of 155mm artillery shells and some of them have substantial production capacity. Their willingness to backfill Western inventories, or ship ammunition to Ukraine directly (even if quietly) will help bridge that gap while Western production ramps up. In the case of South Korea, in particular, their production capacity is such that they can actually meaningfully contribute to the monthly alotment of 155mm shells for Ukraine, if they have the political will do so.

I'm comfortable in suggesting that existing Western inventories, combined with the ramping up of combined production will allow Ukraine to continue firing 5000-7000 rounds per day (122mm, 152mm, 105mm and 155mm combined) supplemented by mortar rounds. I doubt we'll see them be able to fire more than that for any sustained period. We'll see what Russia can do.

 

[Relic]

Prediction for amor that will arrive in Ukraine before the fall of 2023, beginning with what has been announced thus far in 2022.

Main Battle Tanks
- 62 M1A2 (USA)
- 80-100 Leopard 1 (German industry)
- 80-100 Leopard 2 (Europe + Canada)
- 150-200 T-72 (Czech Republic + Poland + Morocco)
- 80-100 PT-91 (Poland)
- 14 Challenger 2 (Britain)

Tank Destroyers
- 40-60 AMX10-RC (France)

Infantry Fighting Vehicles
- 200 Bradley M2 (USA)
- 60-80 CV90 (Europe)
- 60-80 Marder (Germany)
- 60-80 BMP-1 and BMP-2 (Europe)

Armoured Personnel Carriers
- 180-200 Stryker (USA)
- 150-200 Bulldog (Britain)
- 100-200 M113s (USA + Europe)
- 150 Kirpi (Turkey)
- 40-50 VAB (France)
- 50 Dingo (Germany)
- 30 Bushmaster (Australia)
- 250-300 Maxxpro and Cougar (USA)

Infantry Mobility Vehicles
- 300-400 HMMWVs (USA + Europe)
- 200 Roshel Senators (Canada)
- 40-50 Bastion (France)
- 100-150 Iveco LMVs (Europe)

Artillery (towed and self propelled)
- 30-50 L118 and L119, 105mm towed howitzers (USA +Europe)
- 20-30 D-30, 122mm towed howitzers (Estonia + Europe)
- 40-50 FH-70, 155mm towed howitzers (Estonia + Europe)
- 19 CAESAR, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Denmark)
- 36 M109A6 Paladin, 155mm self propelled howitzers (USA)
- 20-30 M109, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Europe)
- 30 AS-90, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Britain)
- 12 Archer, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Sweden)
- 10-15 Dana M2, 122mm self propelled howitzers (Czech Republic) - part of a batch ordered in 2022.
- 10-15 Zuzana 2, 155m self propelled howitzers (Slovakia)- Part of a batch ordered in 2022.
- 10-15 Krab, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Poland)- Part of a batch ordered in 2022.

I'm sure I missed some things, but I think this will be the core of the armor and artillery that will arrive in Ukraine between January 1st, 2022 and August 31st, 2022.

 

[Relic]

Look, I take the Ukrainian reports of Russian casualties with a grain of salt, because I suspect that they are undoubtedly exaggerated / inflated to some extent for propaganda purposes (Russia does the same), but after seeing the videos from Russia's failed advance in Vuhledar yesterday, it's easy to believe that the numbers from yesterday are fairly accurate. It was, obviously a slaughter. The videos are all over Telegram and Nitter.

This was from yesterday alone. Keep in mind that they're from across the entire Eastern / Southern front.

- 1030 Russians KIA
- 14 MBTs Destroyed
- 28 APVs Destroyed

The Russians drove an armored column, supported by infantry, right through a pre-fixed Ukrainian artillery position. The artillery was also drone corrected and supported by Ukrainian mortar teams. It was a complete massacre.

http://imgur.com/ge01kKT

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622851133696770049

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622631003800870912

There are about a dozen videos of infantry being massacred by artillery, mortars and drone dropped grenades.

 

[MaciekRS]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622719688860991492

I'm saying it again. Especially Turks and Muslims, be careful who you support.

PLS STOP with that FAKE FSB delivered "news".

 

[Angry Turk !!!]

View attachment 53813
This is the reaction of "ordinary Russians" to tragedy

"Death to Turkish pigs" " death to turkish pedarasts" "they are punished" "more gpyies will be be dead"

Yes, there are people like that. But at the same time, Russia is sending 100 specialists to Türkiye to HELP. Now tell me, what's more imortant. The opinion of bottom feeders or ACTUAL help?