My guess: Erdoğan wins with 50.8 % majority this Sunday.
Ok, let's get everyone's predictions for both presidential and parliamentary elections; here are mine:
I could just average out the 6-7 reliable polls there is and get very close to the actual results but there's no fun in that; so I will add my own speculations about what the polls might get wrong to spice it up (but I can already bet that I will be wrong and the polls will be right). I think there are many factors that might mislead polls. For presidential elections these are 2: a) opposition voters are more likely to withhold information due to the atmosphere of pressure and this has grown in the years since 2018-2019 elections, this might contribute from 1 to 2% to KK. b) status quo voters are less enthusiastic about their votes, so they may be more likely to answer polls but not actually go vote or even abandon long lines, might translate to a loss of up to 1% of the votes. So my prediction for presidential election is
| Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu | 52.5% |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 44.5% |
| Sinan Oğan | 2.5 |
| Muharrem İnce | 0.4 |
Now to parliamentary results. Akp has lost about 7-8%, but it has also gained about 1-2% opposition nationalist votes, and about 1-2% new citizen vote, predominentally of Syrian kind. CHP has lost about 1-1.5% urbanite liberal youth vote to TİP (small business owners and their kids who have a nagging sympathy about workers who their dads or themselves work to death so they seek redemption by casting a vote to the socialist party as they first hear about socialism), probably about 1% to İYİ, but they will gain 1% from YSP amid all the confusion, and some 2-3% nonvoters or new voters and about probably 2.5% old Akp voters courtesy of old Erdoğan guard among their ranks. İYİ will gain that 1% from CHP, will gain 2-3% new and youth vote, will gain 1% from MHP. YSP will lose 0.5% to TİP, 1% to CHP, 0.5% due to confusion. MHP has lost that 1% to İYİ, and about 1% to Zafer, and even more than that will not vote. YRP will get more than any poll indicates because they're the party most encompassing that divorced dad misogyny energy of the good old shame/honor culture of the mediterranean (a la Andrew Tate). They are a very dangerous proposition, as a breakup of AKP will result in the flooding of their ranks and seeing as how they are anti-science, anti-vax, anti-evolution, and overall the congregation of everything disgusting about humanity, this will be huge challenge for Turkey coming up. My predictions are:
| AKP | 36% | MHP | 6.7% |
| YRP | 1.7% | CHP | 26.4% |
| İYİ | 13.7% | YSP | 9.5% |
| TİP | 1.8% | ZP | 1.3% |
| MP | 0.9% | Others | 2 |
it is nationalist?
this is actually happened
