TR Air Defence Programs

[Corvus]

For the first time, Ukraine discloses real missile interception rates, moving beyond 'all intercepted' claims—average success stands at 43%

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, reported that from February 24, 2022, Russian missiles and drones struck 11,879 targets in Ukraine.

Civilian targets made up 53% of successful Russian strikes, hitting 6,203 targets, while military targets numbered 5,676


Missiles and Drones:

Total Missiles Launched: 9,590

Total Drones Launched: 13,997

Missiles Intercepted: 2,429 (25%)

Drones Intercepted: 5,972 (43%)


Cruise Missiles (Kalibr, Kh-555/101, R-500, Iskander):

Interception Rate: 67%

These cruise missiles are more effectively intercepted, with a significant proportion launched at strategic targets


Guided Missiles (Kh-59, Kh-35, Kh-31):

Interception Rate: 22%

Lower interception rate due to these missiles being launched at frontline or border targets with less layered air defense.


Drones (Shahed-136, Lancet):

Launched: 13,315

Intercepted: 8,836 (63%)

These drones were heavily targeted by air defense, resulting in a moderate interception success rate.


Ballistic Missiles (Iskander, Tochka-U, KN-23):

Launched: 1,388

Interception Rate: 4.5%

Extremely low interception rate, making these missiles a significant threat, particularly to civilian infrastructure.


Anti-Aircraft Missiles Modified to Hit Ground (S-300, S-400):

Launched: 3,008

Interception Rate: 0.63%

These missiles targeted 4,293 objects, primarily civilian (3,196) but also military (1,097).


Kh-22 and Kh-32 Missiles:

Launched: 362

Intercepted: 2 (0.55%)

These missiles, launched from Tu-22M3 bombers, require modern interception systems due to their speed and trajectory.


"Onyx" Missile:

Launched: 211

Intercepted: 12 (5.7%)

High-speed missile with a low interception rate, posing a significant risk to both civilian and military targets.


Hypersonic Weapons (Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal"):

Launched: 111

Intercepted: 28 (25%)

These hypersonic missiles mainly targeted civilian infrastructure, with a notable portion being intercepted.


"Zircon" Missile:

Launched: 6

Intercepted: 2

Struck civilian targets four times, demonstrating the challenges of intercepting truly hypersonic weapons.


Source:

Сирський розкрив, скільки об’єктів в Україні потрапили під удар РФ

Головнокомандувач ЗСУ Олександр Сирський повідомив, що за період з 24 лютого 2022 року в Україні російські ракети та дрони уразили 11 879 об’єктів, з яких більшість цивільні - 6 203, решта військові - 5 676.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[Radonsider]

For the first time, Ukraine discloses real missile interception rates, moving beyond 'all intercepted' claims—average success stands at 43%

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, reported that from February 24, 2022, Russian missiles and drones struck 11,879 targets in Ukraine.

Civilian targets made up 53% of successful Russian strikes, hitting 6,203 targets, while military targets numbered 5,676


Missiles and Drones:

Total Missiles Launched: 9,590

Total Drones Launched: 13,997

Missiles Intercepted: 2,429 (25%)

Drones Intercepted: 5,972 (43%)


Cruise Missiles (Kalibr, Kh-555/101, R-500, Iskander):

Interception Rate: 67%

These cruise missiles are more effectively intercepted, with a significant proportion launched at strategic targets


Guided Missiles (Kh-59, Kh-35, Kh-31):

Interception Rate: 22%

Lower interception rate due to these missiles being launched at frontline or border targets with less layered air defense.


Drones (Shahed-136, Lancet):

Launched: 13,315

Intercepted: 8,836 (63%)

These drones were heavily targeted by air defense, resulting in a moderate interception success rate.


Ballistic Missiles (Iskander, Tochka-U, KN-23):

Launched: 1,388

Interception Rate: 4.5%

Extremely low interception rate, making these missiles a significant threat, particularly to civilian infrastructure.


Anti-Aircraft Missiles Modified to Hit Ground (S-300, S-400):

Launched: 3,008

Interception Rate: 0.63%

These missiles targeted 4,293 objects, primarily civilian (3,196) but also military (1,097).


Kh-22 and Kh-32 Missiles:

Launched: 362

Intercepted: 2 (0.55%)

These missiles, launched from Tu-22M3 bombers, require modern interception systems due to their speed and trajectory.


"Onyx" Missile:

Launched: 211

Intercepted: 12 (5.7%)

High-speed missile with a low interception rate, posing a significant risk to both civilian and military targets.


Hypersonic Weapons (Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal"):

Launched: 111

Intercepted: 28 (25%)

These hypersonic missiles mainly targeted civilian infrastructure, with a notable portion being intercepted.


"Zircon" Missile:

Launched: 6

Intercepted: 2

Struck civilian targets four times, demonstrating the challenges of intercepting truly hypersonic weapons.


Source:

Сирський розкрив, скільки об’єктів в Україні потрапили під удар РФ

Головнокомандувач ЗСУ Олександр Сирський повідомив, що за період з 24 лютого 2022 року в Україні російські ракети та дрони уразили 11 879 об’єктів, з яких більшість цивільні - 6 203, решта військові - 5 676.

www.pravda.com.ua

>print Tayfun and Cenk

 

[Afif]

I mean, yes. But personally I think Ukraine situation is not ideal to derive conclusion on BM success rate against competent BMD. It has a huge land mass to cover and so many critical assets, yet too few BMD systems to provide protection. You can bet most of the BM that made successful hit landed outside the very small protective bubbles. Worse yet, Ukraine didn't have any MIM-104 in the first year of the war.

Same goes for the interception rate of other weapon systems. They did not have (not even remotely close) the numbers of AD systems they needed. IMO, only those penetrated that protection of AMD systems should count in determinimg interception success rate. Not those that simply struck targets outside the AMD coverage.