Do you think that İnce could pull out at the last minute?
When we analyze where the vote transitions to MI are coming from, we realize that it is not as necessary as withdraw is thought to be, as it indirectly prevents the transition of some segments where RTE can win votes: So I think it is not necessary for him to withdraw his candidacy to support KK. Let me explain:
Various polls show that about half of MI's votes come from the Cumhur alliance and the other half from the traditional CHP voters who are the main party of the Millet alliance. About 15% of the vote comes from young people who will vote for the first time.
In other words, it creates a third way for the part of the electorate that does not want to vote for KK's candidacy due to his alliance design and some ambiguous statements, and creates a barrier that will prevent this segment from not going to the polls or returning to the Cumhur alliance as a reaction vote. At the same time, it can also get the votes of some voters who would more or less vote for RTE in case of a dual candidacy. In a sense, MI's presence may be one of the safety valves that will prevent RTE from finishing the job in the first round.
There are voters who traditionally come from democratic leftist traditions, who are nationalists (I mean some of ulusalcılar), or who have a firm line on hdp and the old akp apparatus. Their share in the total electoral arithmetic is another dimension, but these segments exist. MI's withdrawal will not remove these red lines, but saying that we tried but failed may create a smooth transition to prevent these groups from protesting against the ballot box.
MI's respectful approach to KK's person and his refraining from breaking ties and openly saying that whoever is against RTE in the second round should be supported, even though he strongly criticizes the Millet alliance structure, is an important indicator for the second round of the election, and I think the important political output of this for the Memleket party is that it may enable the party to be one of the parties that pass the threshold alone in the parliament without directly joining the Millet alliance. This may erode the CHP after the election or it may indirectly give it a parliamentary majority, which will be determined by the post-election steps if the Millet alliance wins. Maybe, if all conditions are positive for them, after the elections, KK may drop names like Babacan and Davutoğlu and even turn its back on Hdp and continue its path with the Memleket Party. The picture of the left voters' dreams.
In short, I think the Memleket party and the MI candiacy will affect voter turnout and limit vote shifts between the two main alliance structures, ultimately making buffer zone that sees KK a more acceptable than RTE. For these reasons, I really cannot understand why CHP voters attack MI so much and even try to wear it down with immoral slander. Of course, the masses are manipulated by the rhetoric of politicians or influential media-communication figures, but I think this could be in line with the CHP's strategy. If it were otherwise, KK would have sought MI's support before anyone else, especially the HDP and TIP, when he was running for the nomination, at least to show that he valued him more.
