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Zafer

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I assume this is why Elon Musk is shouting that stealth is just a gimmick. They may be seeing all f35s and f22s with the use of Starlink
Probably but satellite transmission is probably only half of the trick, I would say possibly ground antenna transmission complements the detection process. So it is absolutely necessary to avoid Starlink service in the regions of interest to us. But this is just my guess.
 

Yasar_TR

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For the record, IIRC Gokturk-1 has 0.5 m resolution in panchromatic spectra and it captures flying jets very well. It makes you think what would happen if we were to have continuous monitoring with multiple satellites in relevant areas and were able to detect stealth jets in real time.
How are you going to follow planes over cloud cover?
You need large (and I mean humongous) antennae to give you Synthetic Aperture Radar pictures over cloud cover.

Also you need satellites that are at geosynchronous orbit (not geostationary or in line with the equator) to have continuous coverage. That is a satellite some 38K km above earth.
Not 685km above us like Göktürk, that has a sun synchronous orbit and allows the satellite to visit over a 640km wide specific area every 2.5 days.
 

godel44

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How are you going to follow planes over cloud cover?
You need large (and I mean humongous) antennae to give you Synthetic Aperture Radar pictures over cloud cover.

Also you need satellites that are at geosynchronous orbit (not geostationary or in line with the equator) to have continuous coverage. That is a satellite some 38K km above earth.
Not 685km above us like Göktürk, that has a sun synchronous orbit and allows the satellite to visit over a 640km wide specific area every 2.5 days.
The point about cloud cover is valid but this is a sensor fusion game where you combine optic sensors and SAR, the latter of which is not affected by clouds. For example, you can even now use ESA's Sentinel-1 to get free SAR data if the optical Sentinel-2 suffers from cloud cover. You definitely don't need humongous antennae either. Modern SAR satellites like ICEYE and Capella have 3-5 meter deployable reflectors and still get 0.25–1 m resolution through clouds.

With regards to orbits, you would actually want to stay in low earth orbit and have a constellation for this type of task so that you shorten revisit times to minutes. Starlink has proven this type of density is feasible technically. If you were to go to geosynchronous orbit, you sacrifice a lot of geospatial resolution simply because you are that high up. This is why most observation satellites (except for meteorology) are at low earth orbit.

So, in theory, with a large enough LEO constellation combining SAR and optical (including NIR and other relevant infrared bands) and some efficient computer vision algorithms, you can detect stealth jets. It comes down to cost and engineering effort, but I bet somebody will do it in the end. In Turkey's case the areas you want to monitor are not that large (seas around us and Syria), so it should be quite doable at some time in the future if there is a will.
 

hugh

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The point about cloud cover is valid but this is a sensor fusion game where you combine optic sensors and SAR, the latter of which is not affected by clouds. For example, you can even now use ESA's Sentinel-1 to get free SAR data if the optical Sentinel-2 suffers from cloud cover. You definitely don't need humongous antennae either. Modern SAR satellites like ICEYE and Capella have 3-5 meter deployable reflectors and still get 0.25–1 m resolution through clouds.

With regards to orbits, you would actually want to stay in low earth orbit and have a constellation for this type of task so that you shorten revisit times to minutes. Starlink has proven this type of density is feasible technically. If you were to go to geosynchronous orbit, you sacrifice a lot of geospatial resolution simply because you are that high up. This is why most observation satellites (except for meteorology) are at low earth orbit.

So, in theory, with a large enough LEO constellation combining SAR and optical (including NIR and other relevant infrared bands) and some efficient computer vision algorithms, you can detect stealth jets. It comes down to cost and engineering effort, but I bet somebody will do it in the end. In Turkey's case the areas you want to monitor are not that large (seas around us and Syria), so it should be quite doable at some time in the future if there is a will.
your answer reads like chatgpt. please use it as much as you desire(hell, i must be reading over 50 prompts daily) but don't paste it directly here. it is so obvious for the initiated. i already blocked a few people here for their incessant abuse(despite several warnings). i've never seen you doing it before. so please don't go that way.

to counter your last point, it does not matter if Turkey is big or as small as Vatican. that's not how LEO works. if you want constant coverage you need a constellation. and a LEO constellation cannot be regional, it has to be global. you can limit the constellation to lower latitudes and save some satellites from venturing the poles but, again, the satellites won't be stationary and will circle the earth.
 

godel44

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your answer reads like chatgpt. please use it as much as you desire(hell, i must be reading over 50 prompts daily) but don't paste it directly here. it is so obvious for the initiated. i already blocked a few people here for their incessant abuse(despite several warnings). i've never seen you doing it before. so please don't go that way.

to counter your last point, it does not matter if Turkey is big or as small as Vatican. that's not how LEO works. if you want constant coverage you need a constellation. and a LEO constellation cannot be regional, it has to be global. you can limit the constellation to lower latitudes and save some satellites from venturing the poles but, again, the satellites won't be stationary and will circle the earth.
I wasn't using chatgpt mate. I was told in the past I come across as formal but I never was accused of that specifically before.

Regarding your point about LEO: It should have been obvious that I am not talking about LEO satellites staying above one specific region. I was talking about the constellation constantly imaging one specific region. You can design a LEO constellation with inclined orbits so that it passes over your area of interest frequently. That way you always get coverage from at least one satellite in the constellation. So while the individual LEO sat circles the whole Earth, the constellation will always get image from the area of interest. While you dismiss this as "that's not how LEO works," this is common practice in space industry. And yes, Turkey's seas being a smaller area than, say, the whole Pacific Ocean does make Turkey's job easier than America's.
 

hugh

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Regarding your point about LEO: It should have been obvious that I am not talking about LEO satellites staying above one specific region. I was talking about the constellation constantly imaging one specific region. You can design a LEO constellation with inclined orbits so that it passes over your area of interest frequently. That way you always get coverage from at least one satellite in the constellation. So while the individual LEO sat circles the whole Earth, the constellation will always get image from the area of interest. While you dismiss this as "that's not how LEO works," this is common practice in space industry. And yes, Turkey's seas being a smaller area than, say, the whole Pacific Ocean does make Turkey's job easier than America's.
this is wrong. you cannot have a LEO constellation that has more satellites passing over your region than other regions. what you can do, at most, is, like i said, launch your satellites to lower latitude(inclination) orbits so that you don't have to serve polar regions. but the satellites will visit Brazil as often as they visit Syria.

This is how a LEO constellation looks like. If we optimize it to use in our region, the top(highest inclination) satellites would not be included in our solution and serve only between, say, -50 and 50 degrees latitudes, which still wouldn't make sense to me as it would leave out Russia.

190208-starlink-630x356.png


If you're not agreeing with this, please point me to a LEO constellation that has regional coverage and not global, and by regional I mean a specific area(like a country or continent), not an area covered between two latitudes.
 

godel44

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this is wrong. you cannot have a LEO constellation that has more satellites passing over your region than other regions. what you can do, at most, is, like i said, launch your satellites to lower latitude(inclination) orbits so that you don't have to serve polar regions. but the satellites will visit Brazil as often as they visit Syria.

This is how a LEO constellation looks like. If we optimize it to use in our region, the top(highest inclination) satellites would not be included in our solution and serve only between, say, -50 and 50 degrees latitudes, which still wouldn't make sense to me as it would leave out Russia.

190208-starlink-630x356.png


If you're not agreeing with this, please point me to a LEO constellation that has regional coverage and not global, and by regional I mean a specific area(like a country or continent), not an area covered between two latitudes.
I don't want to veer off too much from the topic of the thread but I will give a final reply as you are either moving goalposts or honestly not understanding what I am saying. When I say "regional" I don't mean satellites that stay fixed above a region and don't pass over other regions. These LEO satellites still orbit around Earth and cover the whole latitude band but their revisit frequency is optimized for a certain region. You can do this with inclinations that skip the poles and clustering RAANs so the sats in the constellation visit the region one after another. You can even take images of the area from other orbits off-nadir depending on sensors you have onboard. In your example, even if the satellites overfly other regions (say Brazil), the constellation can still hit Syria reliably without significant gaps.

As I said, this is common practice and nothing controversial, but if you insist on an example, the ICEYE constellation I mentioned previously serves as an example. When the war in Ukraine started, they tasked multiple (already existing) SAR satellites to that region and started getting hourly passes. So Ukraine got almost continuous SAR access. Other countries in the same latitude band can potentially get the same frequency of access but that is not the mission. If you still object to this existing, I would refer you to talk to them.
 

Yasar_TR

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The point about cloud cover is valid but this is a sensor fusion game where you combine optic sensors and SAR, the latter of which is not affected by clouds. For example, you can even now use ESA's Sentinel-1 to get free SAR data if the optical Sentinel-2 suffers from cloud cover. You definitely don't need humongous antennae either. Modern SAR satellites like ICEYE and Capella have 3-5 meter deployable reflectors and still get 0.25–1 m resolution through clouds.
Sentinel 1 Antenna is 0.821m x 12.3m. At 693km altitude for a 400km wide sweep it gives 40m x 40m resolution. For a 100km wide sweep you would get 20m x 20m resolution. For a 80km wide sweep the resolution increases to 5m x 5m. Originally developed to stop ship collisions; Sentinel-1 does this by receiving Automatic Identification Signals from ships directly. (I don’t think enemy will send signals to your satellite) . Due to its SAR capability it is also used in weather forecasting and terrain mapping. This is a civilian radar system with limited visit times. Revisit time could be 6-12 days.

taken from NASA:
quote:
The spatial resolution of radar data is directly related to the ratio of the sensor wavelength to the length of the sensor's antenna. For a given wavelength, the longer the antenna, the higher the spatial resolution. From a satellite in space operating at a wavelength of about 5 cm (C-band radar), in order to get a spatial resolution of 10 m, you would need a radar antenna about 4,250 m long. (That's over 47 football fields!)
unquote.

So with SAR this difficulty is alleviated to a degree by using the right frequency and sacrificing swath length and resolution.

A military use SAR satellite like German Lupe is comparatively small but has good resolution. There are 5 of them. They take swath length of 8km at a time and to put together a ground map takes 10 hours. This is the time it takes from when an image is requested to when the resulting image is delivered to the user

ICEYE satellites may give near real time imaging with a full complement of a large constellation. If 30 satellites were sweeping say London, that is still only a revisit of 15 times a day. In real life delivery of image to user times can be as long as 1 hour to 8 hours. As of January 2025 there were 44 ICEYE satellites with a further 20 to be placed. To get good resolution the swath distances are very short; 5km being typical for strip sweep.
Starlink has proven this type of density is feasible technically. If you were to go to geosynchronous orbit, you sacrifice a lot of geospatial resolution simply because you are that high up. This is why most observation satellites (except for meteorology) are at low earth orbit.
Starlink is going to place 30thousand + satellites in space to give instant total coverage and no delay. At the moment their coverage is a bit sketchy and has to divert and redirect satellite angles to specific areas to provide continuous signal.

Your last paragraph sums it up. May be one day!
 
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godel44

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Sentinel 1 Antenna is 0.821m x 12.3m. At 693km altitude for a 400km wide sweep it gives 40m x 40m resolution. For a 100km wide sweep you would get 20m x 20m resolution. For a 80km wide sweep the resolution increases to 5m x 5m. Originally developed to stop ship collisions; Sentinel-1 does this by receiving Automatic Identification Signals from ships directly. (I don’t think enemy will send signals to your satellite) . Due to its SAR capability it is also used in weather forecasting and terrain mapping. This is a civilian radar system with limited visit times. Revisit time could be 6-12 days.

taken from NASA:
quote:
The spatial resolution of radar data is directly related to the ratio of the sensor wavelength to the length of the sensor's antenna. For a given wavelength, the longer the antenna, the higher the spatial resolution. From a satellite in space operating at a wavelength of about 5 cm (C-band radar), in order to get a spatial resolution of 10 m, you would need a radar antenna about 4,250 m long. (That's over 47 football fields!)
unquote.

So with SAR this difficulty is alleviated to a degree by using the right frequency and sacrificing swath length and resolution.

A military use SAR satellite like German Lupe is comparatively small but has good resolution. There are 5 of them. They take swath length of 8km at a time and to put together a ground map takes 10 hours. This is the time it takes from when an image is requested to when the resulting image is delivered to the user

Starlink is going to place 30thousand + satellites in space to give instant total coverage and no delay. At the moment their coverage is a bit sketchy and has to divert and redirect satellite angles to specific areas to provide continuous signal.

Your last paragraph sums it up. May be one day!
Agree on much of what you said. But if I may nitpick:
- The 40m resolution you mention for Sentinel-1 is not quite correct. Sentinel-1 actually provides data in different modes with different resolutions (ground ranges ranging from 5m to 20m) and the one you would use for this task is the Stripmap mode with Single Look Complex processing, which gives you a 4m x 4m resolution (range x azimuth).
- The detection of ships with AIS is like an add-on feature and it's not relevant here. But, ships with their transponders off can still be detected with SAR. I had once written a deep learning algorithm to do just that using Sentinel-1.
- This is actually a moot point since I just used Sentinel-1 as an example of a very popular SAR satellite that can see through clouds without a huge antenna. For the detection of stealth jets it is obviously not viable due to long revisit times. That's why I said a special constellation of satellites. Also probably not with C-SAR but with L-SAR as RCS of stealth fighters tend to be optimized for C band anyway.
- Agree on the computation challenge, but things tend to improve fast in that domain.

But yes, one day.
 

Yasar_TR

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Agree on much of what you said. But if I may nitpick:
- The 40m resolution you mention for Sentinel-1 is not quite correct. Sentinel-1 actually provides data in different modes with different resolutions (ground ranges ranging from 5m to 20m) and the one you would use for this task is the Stripmap mode with Single Look Complex processing, which gives you a 4m x 4m resolution (range x azimuth).
- The detection of ships with AIS is like an add-on feature and it's not relevant here. But, ships with their transponders off can still be detected with SAR. I had once written a deep learning algorithm to do just that using Sentinel-1.
- This is actually a moot point since I just used Sentinel-1 as an example of a very popular SAR satellite that can see through clouds without a huge antenna. For the detection of stealth jets it is obviously not viable due to long revisit times. That's why I said a special constellation of satellites. Also probably not with C-SAR but with L-SAR as RCS of stealth fighters tend to be optimized for C band anyway.
- Agree on the computation challenge, but things tend to improve fast in that domain.

But yes, one day.
1754732694059.jpeg


Well, this site gives values similar to what I had read and shared in my previous post.
But it is all retrospective. More area sweep at a time, less resolution
Narrower swath distances, better resolution. More visits better resolution.
Just like ICEYE constellations. The minute you narrow swath to 5km your resolution increases to 0.25metres. Increase swath to 100km, you get 15m resolution.
A big problem with these is getting real time data, and response times.
When these issues are resolved, then we may start seeing the light.

But the rate we are going at the moment is rather alarming. Every country trying to put satellites up there is cluttering the space near our planet. Already space debris is a problem. It is disturbing that we may get stuck at one point because of the junk that has gathered up there. These satellites have finite lives, 10-15 years being common. Once they run out of steam, they start gradually losing orbit altitude until they burn in atmosphere. But that too is a long time and it is uncontrolled.
 

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Are there any news either the eurofighter?
Nope. Nothing new so far after the MoU that was signed in Idef. Detailing and finalizing the deal still can take a lot of time.
 

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The number of bases increased as part of the restructuring of the Turkish Air Force. The 17th Air and Missile Defense Base Command was established in Afyon, and the 18th Main Base was established in Yalova.

Two generals with the rank of Brigadier General were appointed to these two new units in the 2025 Supreme Military Council (YAŞ) assignments. Air Defense Brigadier General Cüneyt Güven was appointed to Afyon, and Air Pilot Brigadier General Mert Uysal was appointed to Yalova.

From deployment airfield to air and missile base
Afyon had long served as one of the deployment airfields of the Turkish Air Force. In line with the new decision, Afyon was elevated to brigade level and transformed into both an air and missile defense command.

Yalova Airfield Command has long hosted orientation and training flights for students of the Air Force Academy. In addition to the T-41 aircraft, Super Mushshak planes and glider flights are also conducted in Yalova.

 

IC3M@N FX

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The F-16 Block 70 no longer makes sense as a temporary solution in my opinion.

The TAI KAAN is the central project for the future. It strengthens technological independence and domestic industry, but it will still take years before it is ready for deployment in significant numbers – that is clear to all of us.

The Eurofighter offers the greatest opportunity in the meantime: Memorandum of Understanding with UK only makes sense if concessions beyond the pure purchase are involved. These could include:

Interface approvals (own IFF systems, EW/ECM and national weapons integration)

Extended maintenance and repair rights

Manufacture of spare parts in our own country

If everything goes well, we will have a custom Eurofighter like the Israelis have with the F-35I.

These points would be crucial in terms of industrial policy because they reduce dependence, enhance our own aviation industry, and could potentially lead to further orders. Turkey needs redundancy. TAI KAAN as a manned fighter aircraft until 2040+ would not be enough; a second strong platform is needed. The Eurofighter would be ideal, as the F-16 is being phased out. Finally, through cannibalization, 80-100 Özgür II aircraft can be kept until 2040+ until the airframe is completely dead, and that will also be sufficient for NATO's nuclear participation until then.
 

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Memorandum of Understanding with UK only makes sense if concessions beyond the pure purchase are involved.
Why?

Interface approvals (own IFF systems, EW/ECM and national weapons integration)

Extended maintenance and repair rights

Manufacture of spare parts in our own country

If everything goes well, we will have a custom Eurofighter like the Israelis have with the F-35I.
These would take at least 5+ years to set up, create, integrate. There's no way the first 40 aircraft come with our own EW.
 

Yasar_TR

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Why?


These would take at least 5+ years to set up, create, integrate. There's no way the first 40 aircraft come with our own EW.
IFF, EW/ECM and local munitions integration can be done very quickly if the sort codes are accessed. But if UK will sell the ECRS-MK2 radar with the planes only local IFF system and munitions need to be integrated.

Extensive maintenance and repair shop system can be set up within a year whilst the team are trained.

Manufacturing spare parts is a sticky point. Most aircraft manufacturers make their money with these. But a compromise can be achieved if a JV can be set up. This may take a few years. But Tusas for fuselage and TEI and Kale for engine may help there.

Since F16V70 order is on hold, the quantity of Typhoon order may double or more. That should give more leeway to negotiate a more favourable contract, allowing us more freedom with the plane.

Tusas site states that 48 KAAN aircrafts to Indonesia will all be delivered in 120 months after 26July 2025, furnished with locally manufactured engines. Tusas has also stated that the local KAAN engine has to be ready and accepted by 2032 to meet this deadline.

If F110 engine sale is blocked, we won’t have an engine to fit in to our KAANs until 2032. To build up a squadron strength may take a couple of years if we are to meet export commitments too.
That means no modern jets for another 9-10 years.

So purchasing 80-100 Typhoons will keep our airforce in good shape until our 100% indigenously manufactured planes are ready. Otherwise we will be stuck with locally upgraded f16s.
 
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IFF, EW/ECM and local munitions integration can be done very quickly if the sort codes are accessed. But if UK will sell the ECRS-MK2 radar with the planes only local IFF system and munitions need to be integrated.

Extensive maintenance and repair shop system can be set up within a year whilst the team are trained.

Manufacturing spare parts is a sticky point. Most aircraft manufacturers make their money with these. But a compromise can be achieved if a JV can be set up. This may take a few years. But Tusas for fuselage and TEI and Kale for engine may help there.

Since F16V70 order is on hold, the quantity of Typhoon order may double or more. That should give more leeway to negotiate a more favourable contract, allowing us more freedom with the plane.

Tusas site states that 48 KAAN aircrafts to Indonesia will all be delivered in 120 months after 26July 2025, furnished with locally manufactured engines. Tusas has also stated that the local KAAN engine has to be ready and accepted by 2032 to meet this deadline.

If F110 engine sale is blocked, we won’t have an engine to fit in to our KAANs until 2032. To build up a squadron strength may take a couple of years if we are to meet export commitments too.
That means no modern jets for another 9-10 years.

So purchasing 80-100 Typhoons will keep our airforce in good shape until our 100% indigenously manufactured planes are ready. Otherwise we will be stuck with locally upgraded f16s.
As far as I understand, we won’t be acquiring either the Eurofighter or the F-16V. Is there any news about the Özgür-2 modernization?
 

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