Gary
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Azerbaijan Armenia Tensions
- Thread starter Agha Sher
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Based on this @ryanmofarrell map from 30 Oct:
https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell
I made this map:
Now the situation is something like this:
Surprisingly Armenians did not have any defence positions in this mountain area so for two weeks there was a fight between Azeri and Armenian mobile groups. Thanks to air domination and much better artillery support Az prevailed. Now the main road basically is cut. Lachin does not have any strategic meaning anymore.
I think Az should start now pressure on the remaining Vardenis road. The area has heavy mountains but almost no villages. SF can find breaches in defence.
https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell
I made this map:
Now the situation is something like this:
Surprisingly Armenians did not have any defence positions in this mountain area so for two weeks there was a fight between Azeri and Armenian mobile groups. Thanks to air domination and much better artillery support Az prevailed. Now the main road basically is cut. Lachin does not have any strategic meaning anymore.
I think Az should start now pressure on the remaining Vardenis road. The area has heavy mountains but almost no villages. SF can find breaches in defence.
GoatsMilk
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Not really, Armenians had 30 years to defensibly enforce this difficult terrain and if things proceed it looks like they will lose it within 2 and half months. To me that seems like armenians are being absolutely decimated. Its for good reason the armenian state is rushing to send kids, women and old men to the front, its because your running out of soldiers.
Its also worth adding that its far more difficult to attack then it is to defend, especially an area that had 30 years to prepare the defence.
What will matter is the outcome, in a month Azerbijan has reclaimed much land and armenians have lost land. Thats where the success can be seen.
The reality on the ground also means that between Armenian and Azerbaijan, its in Azerbaijans hands the outcome of that land. Azerbaijan can take that land alone, Armenians are desperate for a 3rd party saver.
GoatsMilk
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Its also worth pointing out, with armenains being handcuffed and chained to their positions to stop them from fleeing, that the armenians mentally are struggling with this war.
This may be the 100th time that the armenians have fled their positions this war. You can't win a war constantly fleeing the battlefield.
This may be the 100th time that the armenians have fled their positions this war. You can't win a war constantly fleeing the battlefield.
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A Haber reports that there is infiltration into Shusha and also according to ConflictTR (TSKMap) the Azerbaijani Armed Forces cleansed and secured Canagci vilage east of Signax.Based on this @ryanmofarrell map from 30 Oct:
https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell
I made this map:
Now the situation is something like this:
View attachment 5731
Surprisingly Armenians did not have any defence positions in this mountain area so for two weeks there was a fight between Azeri and Armenian mobile groups. Thanks to air domination and much better artillery support Az prevailed. Now the main road basically is cut. Lachin does not have any strategic meaning anymore.
I think Az should start now pressure on the remaining Vardenis road. The area has heavy mountains but almost no villages. SF can find breaches in defence.
View attachment 5733
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Signax under Azerbaijani control according to ConflictTR
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Based on this @ryanmofarrell map from 30 Oct:
https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell
I made this map:
Now the situation is something like this:
View attachment 5731
Surprisingly Armenians did not have any defence positions in this mountain area so for two weeks there was a fight between Azeri and Armenian mobile groups. Thanks to air domination and much better artillery support Az prevailed. Now the main road basically is cut. Lachin does not have any strategic meaning anymore.
I think Az should start now pressure on the remaining Vardenis road. The area has heavy mountains but almost no villages. SF can find breaches in defence.
View attachment 5733
Wouldn’t it be natural to move defense positions forward if a frontline hasn’t changed for 27 years. Given Shusha is a natural fortress, I think Armenia also hasn’t had enough forces to man all necessary defense positions. This could be because of incurred losses or not enough reserves.
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Armenia 41.artillery unit destroyed in agdem
Reviewbrah
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Smerch missiles must have poor quality control. Why so many footage of unexploded Smerch missiles?
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WarGonzo Susha
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I think you confuse the booster and the warhead of the rocket.
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Liberated areas near susha
