Azerbaijan Armenia Tensions

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324341468996247552

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324325395131498497

 

[500]

Based on this @ryanmofarrell map from 30 Oct:
https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell

I made this map:

Now the situation is something like this:

Surprisingly Armenians did not have any defence positions in this mountain area so for two weeks there was a fight between Azeri and Armenian mobile groups. Thanks to air domination and much better artillery support Az prevailed. Now the main road basically is cut. Lachin does not have any strategic meaning anymore.

I think Az should start now pressure on the remaining Vardenis road. The area has heavy mountains but almost no villages. SF can find breaches in defence.

 

[GoatsMilk]

This war is decimating the Azeri officer corps. The number of officers killed in the line of duty is quite high according to open sources.

Colonel Hafiz Agayev

View attachment 5632
View attachment 5631
View attachment 5630
View attachment 5629

Yesterday a Lieutenant-Colonel of the Azerbaijan army was ambushed in his car by Armenian troops. Seems there are still pockets of Armenian troops in the liberated areas.

Not really, Armenians had 30 years to defensibly enforce this difficult terrain and if things proceed it looks like they will lose it within 2 and half months. To me that seems like armenians are being absolutely decimated. Its for good reason the armenian state is rushing to send kids, women and old men to the front, its because your running out of soldiers.

Its also worth adding that its far more difficult to attack then it is to defend, especially an area that had 30 years to prepare the defence.

What will matter is the outcome, in a month Azerbijan has reclaimed much land and armenians have lost land. Thats where the success can be seen.

The reality on the ground also means that between Armenian and Azerbaijan, its in Azerbaijans hands the outcome of that land. Azerbaijan can take that land alone, Armenians are desperate for a 3rd party saver.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Its also worth pointing out, with armenains being handcuffed and chained to their positions to stop them from fleeing, that the armenians mentally are struggling with this war.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324330332481605633

This may be the 100th time that the armenians have fled their positions this war. You can't win a war constantly fleeing the battlefield.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324327920136036352

 

[Kartal1]

Its also worth pointing out, with armenains being handcuffed and chained to their positions to stop them from fleeing, that the armenians mentally are struggling with this war.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324330332481605633

This may be the 100th time that the armenians have fled their positions this war. You can't win a war constantly fleeing the battlefield.

This is not fleeing. This is a perfectly planned tactical retreat bro!

 

[Kartal1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324368633204740097

 

[Kartal1]

Based on this @ryanmofarrell map from 30 Oct:
https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell

I made this map:

Now the situation is something like this:

View attachment 5731

Surprisingly Armenians did not have any defence positions in this mountain area so for two weeks there was a fight between Azeri and Armenian mobile groups. Thanks to air domination and much better artillery support Az prevailed. Now the main road basically is cut. Lachin does not have any strategic meaning anymore.

I think Az should start now pressure on the remaining Vardenis road. The area has heavy mountains but almost no villages. SF can find breaches in defence.

View attachment 5733

A Haber reports that there is infiltration into Shusha and also according to ConflictTR (TSKMap) the Azerbaijani Armed Forces cleansed and secured Canagci vilage east of Signax.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324385347527155722

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324385778366140420

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324383532710567937

 

[Kartal1]

Signax under Azerbaijani control according to ConflictTR

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324389410796933120

 

[Saithan]

Based on this @ryanmofarrell map from 30 Oct:
https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell

I made this map:

Now the situation is something like this:

View attachment 5731

Surprisingly Armenians did not have any defence positions in this mountain area so for two weeks there was a fight between Azeri and Armenian mobile groups. Thanks to air domination and much better artillery support Az prevailed. Now the main road basically is cut. Lachin does not have any strategic meaning anymore.

I think Az should start now pressure on the remaining Vardenis road. The area has heavy mountains but almost no villages. SF can find breaches in defence.

View attachment 5733

Wouldn’t it be natural to move defense positions forward if a frontline hasn’t changed for 27 years. Given Shusha is a natural fortress, I think Armenia also hasn’t had enough forces to man all necessary defense positions. This could be because of incurred losses or not enough reserves.

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324379943300702208

 

[mulj]

Susa liberated, read it on other forum. Any other claims about it?

 

[Saithan]

Too many video atm hope discipline gets reinstated.

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324399819910189061

Armenia 41.artillery unit destroyed in agdem

 

[Reviewbrah]

Smerch missiles must have poor quality control. Why so many footage of unexploded Smerch missiles?

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324400617570422786

WarGonzo Susha

 

[Agha Sher]

Smerch missiles must have poor quality control. Why so many footage of unexploded Smerch missiles?

I think you confuse the booster and the warhead of the rocket.

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324404774889050122

Liberated areas near susha

 

[Agha Sher]

May Allah help our soldiers in Susa.